2024 Off-Season Mock Drafts: Wrapping up The Series – Then vs Now
With rookies reporting to NFL camps in a little over two weeks and veterans following behind them shortly after that in about three or four weeks, it’s time to wrap up the 2024 Off-Season Mock Draft Series. Most league’s rookie drafts have concluded long ago, although some stragglers remain. I’m in the middle of one now and still have two more to go, but I’m also in far too many leagues, and I intentionally chose leagues where my drafts are spread out.
Anyway, enough about me, let’s see what kind of movement we saw this off-season, position by position. I’ll be looking back to my first Off-Season Mock Draft article from January and compare what we saw at that time to what we see now in the most recent June ADP. With the new rookies added in, free agency movement, and the updated team depth charts, let’s see what kind of movement we’ve observed this off-season.
Quarterback
QB1
The left column is January’s start-up ADP, and the right column is the most recent ADP from June.
The obvious eye-opener is seeing Justin Fields as a top-ten quarterback only six months ago, but the most significant notable change in ADP is the addition of two rookies, Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels. Their addition bumps Trevor Lawrence and Dak Prescott out of the top 12 in addition to Fields’ fall. Josh Allen climbed 13 spots in ADP despite losing Stefon Diggs to become the new QB1. Anthony Richardson rose 16 spots and has the potential to climb even more in-season if he hits his ceiling this year. Jordan Love also snuck into the top 12 and given the impressive arsenal of weapons at his disposal; it is well deserved.
QB2
We saw more movement in the QB2 range than with the QB1s. The rookie additions of JJ McCarthy, Drake Maye, and Bo Nix bumped players out of the QB2 range; Matthew Stafford, Baker Mayfield, Derek Carr, and Russell Wilson were all bumped into QB3 territory. Jared Goff and Brock Purdy could end up league winners in this range, and I am slightly shocked Bryce Young didn’t fall more based on what we saw from him and the Panthers in 2023.
QB3
Dynasty ageism shows up big-time in this range. Mayfield, Stafford, Wilson, Carr, Aaron Rodgers, and Daniel Jones might be viable fantasy starters in redraft, but their long-term dynasty potential is obviously limited. The one name that disappeared that I find interesting is Sam Howell. There is a decent chance that we will see Howell start some games in Seattle this season, and if he plays well, there is a 50/50 chance that Howell might be the Seahawks’ starter in 2025. I like Howell more now than I did in January, yet he fell out of the ADP entirely- and we didn’t even see 36 quarterbacks drafted.
Running Back
RB1
There was not much to see here at the top of the running back ADP charts. Isiah Pacheco slid into the top 12, and rookie Jonathon Brooks snuck in, too. Their addition at the end of the group bumped out the previous RB11 and RB12, James Cook and Rachaad White.
RB2
Rookie Trey Benson made his way into the top 16, while Tony Pollard and Zach Charbonnet fell out of the top 24. Derrick Henry saw a huge bump — going from RB37, 128th overall, to RB17, 77th overall, after signing with Baltimore this off-season. Between Pollard’s fall after signing with Tennessee and Henry’s rise after leaving Tennessee, it makes me wonder if the dynasty community is overreactive to the Titans’ offense. There is a chance that we are collectively undervaluing everyone on the Titans this season.
RB3
Zamir White has climbed from the bottom of the RB3s to the very top of the group. We see rookies Blake Corum and MarShawn Lloyd appear in this range, and Austin Ekeler stops his fall from RB19 at RB36, giving Washington two RB2s, as Brian Robinson is RB31. Both of them are unappealing at this price, but I would prefer Ekeler, given his receiving upside in PPR leagues.
RB4 and RB5
As we get into the 15th round of start-ups, we’ll wrap up with the RB4s and RB5s as potential backups, handcuffs, and bye-week fill-in options. We see the addition of rookies Jaylen Wright, Kimani Vidal, Bucky Irving, Ray Davis, Tyrone Tracy Jr, and Audric Estime. A year from now, I think Wright, Vidal, and Davis will be viewed as steals in this range as we look back at where players were in ADP at this time.
One rookie omission in this range is Will Shipley. If Kenneth Gainwell was RB54 in January, I’m slightly surprised that Shipley didn’t crack the top 60 at the position, as I can see him eventually taking over Gainwell’s role in Philadelphia. I also find it odd that Jerome Ford fell from RB26 to RB41. As far as we know, Nick Chubb is still a ways away from playing, and the Browns only added D’Onta Foreman (RB76). Knowing that, you would think Ford would have – at the very least – held his value from January.
Wide Receiver
WR1
It’s not a shocker, but we saw rookie Marvin Harrison Jr slide right into the overall WR5 slot. Fellow rookie Malik Nabers is WR10, which seems a tad bit high to me. And what I find staggeringly insane is that Drake London slid into the WR1 tier after being WR24 back in January. I like Kirk Cousins as much as anyone, but is his signing and the firing of Arthur Smith enough to propel London up 12 spots among receivers?
WR2
With the addition of the rookies into the WR1 group and London’s rise, Brandon Aiyuk, Jaylen Waddle, and DeVonta Smith fell into the WR2 range. Rome Odunze is the only rookie to fall in the WR2 group despite being considered on par with Harrison and Nabers. For the most part, the WR2 group stayed steady over the last half-year. One notable duo is Houston’s Tank Dell and Nico Collins, who were WRs 21 and 22, respectively, back in January. The team added Stefon Diggs, and in June, we saw them move in opposite directions. Collins moved from WR22 to WR14, and Dell slid from WR21 to WR25 – a WR3.
WR3
In recent years, many leagues have added a third starting receiver spot or a WR/TE spot. As a result, the WR3 tier has become ever more critical as it is often a locked-in starter position. Rookies Xavier Worthy, Brian Thomas, and Keon Coleman fall in this range now, and last year’s rookie WR1, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, is in the WR3 mix with them now, too.
WR4
With the WR3s being locked in as starters now, the WR4s are fringe weekly starters out of your flex spots, making this range of receivers still very important for fantasy. Luckily, we’ve still got a lot of talent to be had in this range. Seven of the 12 receivers will probably lead their team in receiving. Many of these players have a suppressed ADP due to their age and will outperform their positional ranking in 2024. Rashee Rice, despite falling from WR23 to WR37, is still a value as his fall is a result of off-field concerns.
WR5 and WR6
Concluding the receiver group, we have some viable options for your flex spots as receiver is deeper than ever. Rookies Xavier Legette, Adonai Mitchell, Roman Wilson, Jermaine Burton, Ja’Lynn Polk, Malachi Corley, and Troy Franklin have all squeezed into this range with plenty of upside to spare. I wouldn’t be surprised to see veterans Courtland Sutton, Romeo Doubs, Khalil Shakir, Marvin Mims, and Demario Douglas outperform their ADP in this range, too.
Tight End
I’m stunned that rookie Brock Bowers is already TE3 overall. On a Raiders team with questions at quarterback, TE3 seems awfully high for a player we’ve never seen on an NFL field. On the other hand, Dalton Kincaid falling from TE3 to TE6 after his quarterback lost his top receiver makes no sense either. Travis Kelce will turn 35 in season, and yet he climbed 24 spots in ADP since January – make that make sense. I suppose it has to do with his new two-year contract, but if you look at how it is structured, it looks more like a one-year deal. A fourth-round pick in a start-up draft is a steep price to pay for a player you will only use for one or two seasons.
I’m a massive fan of rookie Ben Sinnott, but I’m not sure what I think about him being TE16. Zach Ertz has proven effective when he’s on the field, so we might not see much of Sinnott this year. As you get deeper in this position group, the names get less sexy unless you’re in two tight end, or tight end premium leagues. But we see a couple of starters in Chigoziem Okonkwo and Hunter Henry who could outperform their ADP based on scoring a few more touchdowns. At the same time, Isaiah Likely could easily put up top-ten numbers at the position if anything were to happen to Mark Andrews.
As always, the NFL off-season was busy. Once we get through the combine and draft, we start adding the incoming rookie class into our rankings. Their presence typically forces some veterans down in the minds of dynasty owners. On the other hand, when some teams don’t address a position we expect them to in the draft, we end up moving veterans up a bit following the draft. This goes the same for NFL free agency, as we saw several veterans change teams and supplant former starters on their new teams, thus shaking up ADP. But now, with all the moving and shaking in our rearview mirror and NFL camps right around the corner, it is time to move on from the off-season and start looking ahead to the season. Thanks for reading this season series and I’ll be back with more next off-season.
- 2024 Off-Season Mock Drafts: Wrapping up The Series – Then vs Now - June 29, 2024
- Off-Season Mock Drafts: Rookie Tier Movement - June 22, 2024
- Off-Season Mock Drafts: Single QB Start-Up Results - June 15, 2024
