If you follow me on Twitter, you’ve probably noticed a series of tweets I share on a weekly basis regarding player and team defensive performances, all from a fantasy lens. I’m going to be sharing some of that same information with you here. I use this each week as I am making my own lineup and waiver wire decisions and thought you might find this valuable as well.

Most dynasty leagues will hold their semi-finals this week, meaning a trip to the finals is on the line. Every lineup decision will feel agonizing with so much on the line. Months, or even years of trades, draft picks and lineup decisions come down to this. Later, I’ll look at some players that should be targeted or avoided based on their Week Sixteen matchups, but these four stand out as must-starts and players that will be key to your team advancing to play for the league title.

Baker Mayfield, QB TB

In what has turned into a career year for the former top-overall draft pick, Mayfield is the QB5 on the season and has notched ten QB1 performances on the year. Only Lamar Jackson has more. This week, Mayfield is set to stay hot as he faces the Cowboys. While Dallas has enjoyed some recent success against poor competition, they have struggled to stop opposing quarterbacks. Over the past five weeks, Dallas has allowed 24.7 fantasy points per game, third-worst in the league. I even like Mayfield to find the end zone via the run. The Dallas defense has allowed a league-high eight rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks.

Bijan Robinson, RB ATL

Obviously, Robinson was already in your lineup no matter the matchup. The chance to face the reeling Giants just makes the upside even sweeter. The Giants have allowed 14 top-24 fantasy performances on the season, tied for third-most in the league. Over the past five weeks, they have permitted 30.6 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. That’s the worst in the league over that span. New York has allowed a top-10 fantasy performance in four of their past five games and Robinson is almost certain to add to that streak.

Malik Nabers, WR NYG

Speaking of the Giants, the one thing they have going for them as the season draws to a close is the play of rookie receiver Nabers. He’s been their top offensive threat all season and that won’t stop this week, no matter who is suiting up at quarterback. The Falcons’ defense has given up 14 top-24 performances on the season, which is the third-most in the league. Over the past month, they’ve struggled even more, allowing over 44 fantasy points per contest to wideouts, second-most behind only the Bills. Lock in Nabers for another dozen or more targets and hopefully lock yourself into a title run.

David Njoku, TE CLE

This one will obviously require some care. The Browns face cross-state rival Cincinnati this week with only bragging rights on the line as both squads have disappointed this season. Both teams have specifically had trouble with opposing tight ends, giving Njoku a chance to enjoy a big game, if he plays that is. The Browns tight end missed Week Fifteen with a hamstring injury. That decision came down to the wire last Sunday, suggesting Njoku could return in Week Sixteen. The Bengals have allowed a league-worst ten TE1 performances this season and are giving up over 21 fantasy points per game to the position. If Njoku is in the Browns’ lineup, he should be in yours too.

Note: The scoring system used is always PPR with four points for passing touchdowns and all stats and info are provided by Fantasy Data.

Quarterbacks

Week 15 QB1s

Season-Long QB1s

Most QB1 Games This Season

Most QB1 Games Allowed

Florida-based teams, the Jaguars and Buccaneers, continue to be the top teams to target when selecting a weekly starting quarterback. While the matchups are friendly, the fantasy options are not nearly reliable enough for a playoff start. The Jaguars face off against the Raiders, with either Aiden O’Connell or Desmond Ridder under center. Cooper Rush has found himself among the QB1 finishers in two of the past four weeks, but still can’t be considered a safe start. Other low-end quarterbacks that have nice matchups include Mac Jones (vs. LV) and Dorian Thompson-Robinson (vs. CIN.)

Along with the previously-mentioned Mayfield, the other starting options boosted by their Week Sixteen matchup include Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson. Murray and the Cardinals face the Panthers, who have given up eight QB1 games on the season. Carolina is one of seven teams allowing more than 24 fantasy points per game over the last five weeks. I would be somewhat cautious with Wilson and the Steelers this week. While the Ravens have given up eight QB1 games and 23.1 fantasy points per game for the season, over the last three weeks, they have allowed a league-low 16.1 fantasy points to opposing signal callers.

Speaking of that AFC North battle between Pittsburgh and Baltimore, it presents a tough challenge for Lamar Jackson. The Steelers did finally get hit with a QB1 performance last week as Jalen Hurts got them, but they remain among the toughest defense in the league when it comes to quarterback scoring. Jackson will remain in lineups but likely won’t hit that 30+ fantasy point score we’ve seen in recent weeks.

Other quarterbacks with difficult Week Sixteen matchups include Drake Maye (vs. BUF), Brock Purdy (vs. MIA), Tua Tagovailoa (vs. SF), Jayden Daniels (vs. PHI), and Jared Goff (vs. CHI.)

Running Backs

Week 15 RB1s

Season-Long RB1s

Most RB1 Games This Season

Most RB1 Games Allowed

James Conner has been heating up with a top-seven weekly finish in three of his past five games, including last week’s RB1 performance. This week is a good chance for Conner to build on those numbers as he faces a beat-down Panthers’ defense that has allowed 17 top-24 performances on the season and over 28 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. The Jaguars are next in line, allowing 15 top-24 games on the year, though it may be difficult to take advantage of that given the state of the Raiders. It sounds like Sincere McCormick is done for the year, likely leaving veteran journeyman Ameer Abdullah as the next man up. That’s a risky option in the fantasy playoffs.

Other backs with plus matchups this week include Alvin Kamara (vs. GB), Rhamondre Stevenson (vs. BUF), and Jahmyr Gibbs (vs. CHI.)

The Chiefs have sprung a leak in recent weeks, allowing three RB1 performances in the past four games, yet they remain the best in the league for the season. This week, they face Joe Mixon and the Texans. Even with their recent issues, Mixon counteracts that with his injury status. If possible, I’d shy away from using Mixon this week. The Vikings defense has allowed just six top-24 performances on the year. We’re not sure yet if Kenneth Walker will return to the Seattle lineup but either he or Zach Charbonnet will be tough starts this week.

Other backs with challenging matchups in Week Sixteen include Isiah Pacheco (vs. HOU), Brian Robinson (vs. PHI,) and D’Andre Swift (vs. DET.)

Wide Receivers

Week 15 WR1s

Season-Long WR1s

Most WR1 Games This Season

Most WR1 Games Allowed

Surprisingly, the Texans held down the Dolphins wideouts last week but remained the worst in the league, having allowed a league-worst 18 top-24 fantasy performances through fifteen weeks. This week, they face the challenge of stopping veteran DeAndre Hopkins and rookie speedster Xavier Worthy. That task might become a little easier if Patrick Mahomes misses the game. The Vikings’ defense is next in line, just behind with 17 top-24 performances and now faces off with the red-hot Jaxon Smith-Njigba, along with DK Metcalf.

Other wideouts with matchups to chase include Jerry Jeudy (vs. CIN), Ja’Marr Chase/Tee Higgins (vs. CLE), Jakobi Meyers (vs. JAX), CeeDee Lamb (vs. TB), and the Bears trio of DJ Moore/Keenan Allen/Rome Odunze (vs. DET.)

The Giants have been tough against opposing wideouts, though Rashod Bateman did breakthrough last week with a WR1 performance. This week, the G-Men will look to stop Drake London and Darnell Mooney, who will be catching passes from rookie quarterback Michael Penix. Even in this matchup, I’m not betting against London.

Other wide receivers with challenging matchups this week are: Amon-Ra St. Brown/Jameson Williams (vs. CHI), Brian Thomas (vs. LV), Terry McLaurin (vs. PHI), Deebo Samuel/Jauan Jennings (vs. MIA), Tyreek Hill (vs. SF) and Michael Pittman/Josh Downs (vs. TEN.)

Tight Ends

Week 15 TE1s

Season-Long TE1s

Most TE1 Games This Season

Most TE1 Games Allowed

We’ve already discussed David Njoku, who (hopefully) faces the Bengals this week. Next in line are the Packers, who have allowed nine TE1 games on the year. They face off with the Saints and Juwan Johnson. I like the matchup, obviously, and Johnson has played well, but it’s difficult to trust any Saints given their quarterback situation.

Other tight ends with positive matchups include Sam LaPorta (vs. CHI), Brenton Strange (vs. LV), Grant Calcaterra (vs. WAS), Trey McBride (vs. CAR), Chigoziem Okonkwo (vs. IND) and Jake Ferguson (vs. TB.)

A quartet of teams have given up just two TE1 games on the year, making them matchups to avoid, when possible. That includes the Cardinals (vs. Tommy Tremble), Falcons (vs. Daniel Bellinger), 49ers (vs. Jonnu Smith), and Titans (vs. Mo Alie-Cox.) To be clear, Smith absolutely still belongs in your lineup, especially with Jaylen Waddle perhaps missing time.

Finally, here is the chart summarizing how teams have fared against each position. I’ve also included the schedule for this week for reference.

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.

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