Dynasty Perspective Through Fantasy Points Per Game: Quarterbacks
The dynasty world can be an optical illusion, where everything is not what it appears. On the surface you can see the landscape, however looking deeper can uncover a new meaning, a different perspective. In this four-part series, I’ll be discovering the true takeaways from the dynasty world – through the contrast of overall fantasy points scored versus the fantasy points per game (FPPG) in 2024.
FPPG is key to understanding a player’s true performance. Why would we consider yearly totals when we play a weekly game? Focusing purely on the overall output misses key information such as games missed through injury, hence can skew outlook based on random events. Focusing on FPPG compares players on a level playing field, game versus game, to truly identify their fantasy effectiveness.
The first article in the series focuses on quarterbacks, contrasting the overall output against the weekly output from 2024 (excluding week 18).
Geno Smith, QB SEA
- QB14 Overall (254.8 fantasy points)
- QB18 in FPPG (15.9 fantasy points)
Reviewing his surface-level performance, Smith had a strong 2024 season, finishing as a high QB2 at the QB14 overall. While there is a drop-off to the QB18 in FPPG, it was a solid season on the back of finishing as the QB5 in passing yards. Smith’s fantasy output was good as a QB2 on dynasty rosters, however factoring in strong weapons like rising sophomore wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba and his veteran receiving partner DK Metcalf, Smith was in a facilitative situation for fantasy.
Smith’s excellent passing output was negated by him registering the most interceptions since he was a rookie (15). Also, the firing of offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb is concerning, on the back of a career year in passing output for Smith. The Seahawks were a team who could have made the playoffs in a weaker-than-expected NFC West, highlighting Smith’s capped ceiling from a real-life point of view – as a 34-year-old quarterback with limited talent and upside overall.
Verdict
Smith has serious concerns about his dynasty future, with no ties to the current coaching staff and the distinct possibility 2025 is his last as a starter, including an easy out in his contract from now. The market views Smith on the QB2/3 cusp, however the highlight QB14 finish will make him more appealing than true value in certain leagues. Smith is my priority pivot at quarterback this off-season, more to follow on trade options later in the article.
Geno Smith – DLF ADP Over Time.
CJ Stroud, QB HOU
- QB18 Overall (226.4 fantasy points)
- QB26 in FPPG (14.2 fantasy points)
One of the biggest busts of 2024 was Stroud, a player who dropped from QB11 overall in 2023 to QB18 and 2023’s QB8 in FPPG falling to QB26 this season. The season was disappointing on a game-by-game basis as well with only two QB1 performances on the season and none in the top five. Stroud’s dynasty value peaked as a top-three asset overall in the off-season, further adding to the disappointment and crushing teams expecting elite-level fantasy output in 2024.
Overall, the weapons improved with the addition of Joe Mixon and Stefon Diggs, however Stroud’s top three wide receivers (Diggs, Nico Collins and Tank Dell) all missed time this season – with only four games in which they all played together. Also, the natural regression from five interceptions to 12 this year and the reduction from three to zero rushing touchdowns led to Stroud settling in as a low-end QB1 type in the dynasty market.
Upon reflection, Stroud’s seasonal fantasy performances are likely to settle somewhere between his rookie season and last year’s output.
Verdict
Stroud’s QB3 fantasy production in 2024 was extremely disappointing and destroyed contending dynasty rosters. The lack of rushing upside limits his ceiling, where his current market value feels fair and in time we’ll determine if he’s closer to Brock Purdy or Joe Burrow. I’m happy to make the pivot to players in a similar range with higher upside or pay a small premium for the likes of Drake Maye and Caleb Williams.
Matthew Stafford, QB LAR
- QB19 Overall (222.6 fantasy points)
- QB28 in FPPG (13.9 fantasy points)
Stafford’s QB2 overall finish in 2024 disguises his QB3 effort in FPPG, creating concerns about his viability as a usable quarterback in dynasty leagues. The risk of retirement or dip in performance for the 36-year-old quarterback is an issue, in addition to the limited rushing upside. Stafford was only able to finish as a QB3 in FPPG, despite having both superstar wide receiver Puka Nacua and his solid veteran counterpart Cooper Kupp at his disposal, albeit both missed time earlier this season.
Stafford was unfortunate to face an extremely difficult schedule and was also without his best weapons (Nacua and Kupp) early on in the year. There is also the positive effect of working with offensive mastermind Sean McVay, however Stafford’s best days are behind him and I struggle to target quarterbacks who lack upside in the rushing game, where you need multiple passing touchdowns and strong passing yardage to be usable each week.
Verdict
The market is already low on Stafford, with him viewed as a QB3, in line with his 2024 FPPG and factoring in his age. Stafford is a player I’m not actively pursuing with limited roster builds where he holds appeal. If you have two solid options on your roster you can likely shoot for upside of another option, although Stafford could be a cheap option to be used in conjunction with an incoming rookie like Cam Ward or Shedeur Sanders.
Matthew Stafford – DLF Game Log App.
Russell Wilson, QB PIT
- QB25 Overall (166.3 fantasy points)
- QB15 in FPPG (16.6 fantasy points)
Recency bias is a huge factor in dynasty, with managers focusing on the real-life performance and the Steelers losing their last five games of the season, automatically pointing to Wilson as the quarterback. It should be noted the losses came against the Ravens twice, the Eagles and Chiefs (all playoff teams), plus a loss to the Bengals – the hottest team in the league to finish the regular season. Also, the Steelers started the season 4-2 with backup quarterback Justin Fields before finishing 6-6 under Wilson – not ideal for his dynasty outlook.
Taking the positive outlook, Wilson was the starter when healthy and delivered high-end QB2 FPPG with average offensive weapons. Wilson has been consistently in this FPPG range for the past few years, finishing QB15 in 2021, QB16 in 2022 and QB14 in 2023. Where it gets interesting for Wilson is his impending free agent status, where he has the chance to land in a better situation for dynasty or the Steelers upgrade their woeful WR2 option behind enigmatic starter George Pickens.
Verdict
Wilson is an appealing asset to pursue, with solid and consistent FPPG, outperforming his overall fantasy points and will be a starter somewhere in 2025. If staying in Pittsburgh there is a strong possibility of an upgrade at WR2 or if moving to a new team it is likely a better situation than 2024 in Pittsburgh. Due to his age, Wilson is a QB3 target on a contender, who could also work as a QB2 streamer with other similar types alongside an elite quarterback in dynasty lineups.
Derek Carr, QB NO
- QB26 Overall (156.0 fantasy points)
- QB19 in FPPG (15.6 fantasy points)
One of my favorite dynasty buys at the position is Carr, a player under-appreciated as the current QB30 in DLF Superflex ADP. Casual players could see the QB26 overall performance and be disappointed, yet the QB19 in FPPG is extremely solid and better than the likes of Trevor Lawrence. Carr battled multiple injuries in 2024, with this also a common trend with his key weapons – he was missing ancillary wide receiver Rashid Shaheed from week seven onwards and only managed five games together with star player Chris Olave.
Like Wilson, Carr’s injuries masked his true value as a solid QB2, in line with his career and more impressive on the back of playing limited time with his two best receivers. Despite turning 34 this upcoming March, Carr has never relied on his rushing ability to contribute to fantasy, making him less volatile moving forward. Rumors of him being released by the Saints have depressed his market value to the QB3 range, however I truly believe he is a viable starting quarterback for an NFL team in 2025 and beyond.
Verdict
Strike now while the market overplays the risk in Carr’s profile, my priority target at quarterback for any dynasty contender or team who is transitioning into contention during 2025. Whilst Carr is not a game-changing fantasy asset, he is a steady and reliable QB2 at a QB3 price. The incoming 2025 rookie class is awful, while Carr is an excellent bet to start throughout 2025 and can be used in a QB2 committee with a risky asset like Anthony Richardson or fallback option for the owner of the aforementioned Smith.
He is a keen supporter of mental health projects, where dynasty content is his coping strategy to remain in an optimal mindset.
- Dynasty Landscape Fusion: Pat Fitzmaurice – AFC North - July 8, 2025
- Dynasty Landscape Fusion: Matt Harmon – NFC North - July 1, 2025
- Dynasty Archetypes: Tight End - June 5, 2025
The dynasty world can be an optical illusion, where everything is not what it appears. On the surface you can see the landscape, however looking deeper can uncover a new meaning, a different perspective. In this four-part series, I’ll be discovering the true takeaways from the dynasty world – through the contrast of overall fantasy points scored versus the fantasy points per game (FPPG) in 2024.
FPPG is key to understanding a player’s true performance. Why would we consider yearly totals when we play a weekly game? Focusing purely on the overall output misses key information such as games missed through injury, hence can skew outlook based on random events. Focusing on FPPG compares players on a level playing field, game versus game, to truly identify their fantasy effectiveness.
The first article in the series focuses on quarterbacks, contrasting the overall output against the weekly output from 2024 (excluding week 18).
Geno Smith, QB SEA
- QB14 Overall (254.8 fantasy points)
- QB18 in FPPG (15.9 fantasy points)
Reviewing his surface-level performance, Smith had a strong 2024 season, finishing as a high QB2 at the QB14 overall. While there is a drop-off to the QB18 in FPPG, it was a solid season on the back of finishing as the QB5 in passing yards. Smith’s fantasy output was good as a QB2 on dynasty rosters, however factoring in strong weapons like rising sophomore wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba and his veteran receiving partner DK Metcalf, Smith was in a facilitative situation for fantasy.
Smith’s excellent passing output was negated by him registering the most interceptions since he was a rookie (15). Also, the firing of offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb is concerning, on the back of a career year in passing output for Smith. The Seahawks were a team who could have made the playoffs in a weaker-than-expected NFC West, highlighting Smith’s capped ceiling from a real-life point of view – as a 34-year-old quarterback with limited talent and upside overall.
Verdict
Smith has serious concerns about his dynasty future, with no ties to the current coaching staff and the distinct possibility 2025 is his last as a starter, including an easy out in his contract from now. The market views Smith on the QB2/3 cusp, however the highlight QB14 finish will make him more appealing than true value in certain leagues. Smith is my priority pivot at quarterback this off-season, more to follow on trade options later in the article.
Geno Smith – DLF ADP Over Time.
CJ Stroud, QB HOU
- QB18 Overall (226.4 fantasy points)
- QB26 in FPPG (14.2 fantasy points)
One of the biggest busts of 2024 was Stroud, a player who dropped from QB11 overall in 2023 to QB18 and 2023’s QB8 in FPPG falling to QB26 this season. The season was disappointing on a game-by-game basis as well with only two QB1 performances on the season and none in the top five. Stroud’s dynasty value peaked as a top-three asset overall in the off-season, further adding to the disappointment and crushing teams expecting elite-level fantasy output in 2024.
Overall, the weapons improved with the addition of Joe Mixon and Stefon Diggs, however Stroud’s top three wide receivers (Diggs, Nico Collins and Tank Dell) all missed time this season – with only four games in which they all played together. Also, the natural regression from five interceptions to 12 this year and the reduction from three to zero rushing touchdowns led to Stroud settling in as a low-end QB1 type in the dynasty market.
Upon reflection, Stroud’s seasonal fantasy performances are likely to settle somewhere between his rookie season and last year’s output.
Verdict
Stroud’s QB3 fantasy production in 2024 was extremely disappointing and destroyed contending dynasty rosters. The lack of rushing upside limits his ceiling, where his current market value feels fair and in time we’ll determine if he’s closer to Brock Purdy or Joe Burrow. I’m happy to make the pivot to players in a similar range with higher upside or pay a small premium for the likes of Drake Maye and Caleb Williams.
Matthew Stafford, QB LAR
- QB19 Overall (222.6 fantasy points)
- QB28 in FPPG (13.9 fantasy points)
Stafford’s QB2 overall finish in 2024 disguises his QB3 effort in FPPG, creating concerns about his viability as a usable quarterback in dynasty leagues. The risk of retirement or dip in performance for the 36-year-old quarterback is an issue, in addition to the limited rushing upside. Stafford was only able to finish as a QB3 in FPPG, despite having both superstar wide receiver Puka Nacua and his solid veteran counterpart Cooper Kupp at his disposal, albeit both missed time earlier this season.
Stafford was unfortunate to face an extremely difficult schedule and was also without his best weapons (Nacua and Kupp) early on in the year. There is also the positive effect of working with offensive mastermind Sean McVay, however Stafford’s best days are behind him and I struggle to target quarterbacks who lack upside in the rushing game, where you need multiple passing touchdowns and strong passing yardage to be usable each week.
Verdict
The market is already low on Stafford, with him viewed as a QB3, in line with his 2024 FPPG and factoring in his age. Stafford is a player I’m not actively pursuing with limited roster builds where he holds appeal. If you have two solid options on your roster you can likely shoot for upside of another option, although Stafford could be a cheap option to be used in conjunction with an incoming rookie like Cam Ward or Shedeur Sanders.
Matthew Stafford – DLF Game Log App.
Russell Wilson, QB PIT
- QB25 Overall (166.3 fantasy points)
- QB15 in FPPG (16.6 fantasy points)
Recency bias is a huge factor in dynasty, with managers focusing on the real-life performance and the Steelers losing their last five games of the season, automatically pointing to Wilson as the quarterback. It should be noted the losses came against the Ravens twice, the Eagles and Chiefs (all playoff teams), plus a loss to the Bengals – the hottest team in the league to finish the regular season. Also, the Steelers started the season 4-2 with backup quarterback Justin Fields before finishing 6-6 under Wilson – not ideal for his dynasty outlook.
Taking the positive outlook, Wilson was the starter when healthy and delivered high-end QB2 FPPG with average offensive weapons. Wilson has been consistently in this FPPG range for the past few years, finishing QB15 in 2021, QB16 in 2022 and QB14 in 2023. Where it gets interesting for Wilson is his impending free agent status, where he has the chance to land in a better situation for dynasty or the Steelers upgrade their woeful WR2 option behind enigmatic starter George Pickens.
Verdict
Wilson is an appealing asset to pursue, with solid and consistent FPPG, outperforming his overall fantasy points and will be a starter somewhere in 2025. If staying in Pittsburgh there is a strong possibility of an upgrade at WR2 or if moving to a new team it is likely a better situation than 2024 in Pittsburgh. Due to his age, Wilson is a QB3 target on a contender, who could also work as a QB2 streamer with other similar types alongside an elite quarterback in dynasty lineups.
Derek Carr, QB NO
- QB26 Overall (156.0 fantasy points)
- QB19 in FPPG (15.6 fantasy points)
One of my favorite dynasty buys at the position is Carr, a player under-appreciated as the current QB30 in DLF Superflex ADP. Casual players could see the QB26 overall performance and be disappointed, yet the QB19 in FPPG is extremely solid and better than the likes of Trevor Lawrence. Carr battled multiple injuries in 2024, with this also a common trend with his key weapons – he was missing ancillary wide receiver Rashid Shaheed from week seven onwards and only managed five games together with star player Chris Olave.
Like Wilson, Carr’s injuries masked his true value as a solid QB2, in line with his career and more impressive on the back of playing limited time with his two best receivers. Despite turning 34 this upcoming March, Carr has never relied on his rushing ability to contribute to fantasy, making him less volatile moving forward. Rumors of him being released by the Saints have depressed his market value to the QB3 range, however I truly believe he is a viable starting quarterback for an NFL team in 2025 and beyond.
Verdict
Strike now while the market overplays the risk in Carr’s profile, my priority target at quarterback for any dynasty contender or team who is transitioning into contention during 2025. Whilst Carr is not a game-changing fantasy asset, he is a steady and reliable QB2 at a QB3 price. The incoming 2025 rookie class is awful, while Carr is an excellent bet to start throughout 2025 and can be used in a QB2 committee with a risky asset like Anthony Richardson or fallback option for the owner of the aforementioned Smith.
He is a keen supporter of mental health projects, where dynasty content is his coping strategy to remain in an optimal mindset.
- Dynasty Landscape Fusion: Pat Fitzmaurice – AFC North - July 8, 2025
- Dynasty Landscape Fusion: Matt Harmon – NFC North - July 1, 2025
- Dynasty Archetypes: Tight End - June 5, 2025
