Monday Mocks: January 1QB Dynasty ADP

Welcome to Monday Mocks, where I’ll bring you…you guessed it, a new mock draft every Monday during the off-season. In my opinion, drafting is the best part of fantasy football, so I do as much of that as I can. This series will be filled with all types of mocks. We’ll draft startups, rookies, devys, and more.

Our January dynasty ADP mock drafts are wrapping up and that brand-new data will be posted here on the site very soon. Until then, I wanted to share a sneak peek at how the top players in the game are being valued.

I have noticed over the years that our January data varies greatly from the previous month. This checks out when considering the general mindset of dynasty players this time of year. Not only is January a time of resolutions and fresh starts in life, but in dynasty fantasy football as well. We often see veteran players lose value while younger player scream up the board. Because of this trend, I’ll focus on each player’s past and current value and how that has changed in recent months.

ROUND ONE:

1.01 – Ja’Marr Chase, WR CIN

It’s been a banner year for Chase, who led the league in receptions (127), receiving yards (1,708), and receiving touchdowns (17), notching the first Triple Crown since Cooper Kupp in 2021 and only the second over the past twenty seasons. Chase and his quarterback Joe Burrow both stayed healthy, leading to career years for both players. Although he’s listed as the 1.01, Chase actually has the exact same ADP as…

1.02 – Justin Jefferson, WR MIN

Chase’s magnificent season somehow overshadowed Jefferson’s performance. A year after dealing with injuries, Jefferson played all 17 games, tying his career-high with ten touchdowns. Jefferson and Chase, former LSU teammates, remain a coin flip as the top option in 1QB dynasty leagues. Perhaps the uncertainty with Jefferson’s quarterback situation is enough to be a tie-breaker in the early part of the dynasty off-season.

1.03 – CeeDee Lamb, WR DAL

The top three receivers and overall dynasty players remain the same as one year ago but this time it is Lamb who endured a frustrating season. After losing his quarterback Dak Prescott earlier in the season, Lamb dealt with nagging injuries through much of the season before eventually shutting it down early. Even in a down year, Lamb finished as the WR8 on the year and might actually become a value play in the early off-season, a time known for its recency bias.

1.04 – Malik Nabers, WR NYG

As a rookie, Nabers made a quick impact for the Giants and dynasty managers and he quickly ascended dynasty rankings and ADP. There’s a narrow margin between the “big three” and the rookie Nabers and with the Giants sure to upgrade the quarterback position this off-season, there’s room for improvement and value gain for yet another former LSU wideout.

1.05 – Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR DET

Lacking the perceived upside of the wideouts drafted ahead of him, Lions star receiver St. Brown checks in as the WR5 and fifth overall player. St. Brown set a new career-high mark with a dozen touchdowns, though his other counting stats were down from a year ago with Jameson Williams and others taking some of the weight of the Detroit offense. I think St. Brown’s original NFL Draft capital is still being held against him by some dynasty managers.

1.06 – Bijan Robinson, RB ATL

The wideout streak ends as Falcons star Robinson holds the RB1 spot. Robinson, while still carrying a hefty amount of dynasty value, had actually been knocked off the top line in recent months. Last off-season’s changes in Atlanta, including a new coaching staff and a pair of new signal callers, led to the breakout performance everyone expected from Robinson. He finished as the RB3 with major statistical improvements from his rookie campaign.

1.07 – Brian Thomas, WR JAX

While impactful rookie seasons were expected for this crop, few expected Thomas to ascend so quickly. Thomas, the Jaguars’ first-rounder last spring and the fourth LSU product among the top-seven dynasty players, wasted no time becoming the top option in his team’s passing game. Thomas showed he could make the big play, but also served as a target hog at times. That combination of volume and upside made Thomas the WR4 on the season.

1.08 – Puka Nacua, WR LAR

Second-year star Nacua endured a mid-season injury, which resulted in a value loss as he fell out of the first round in our in-season dynasty ADP. Nacua returned and proved to be a volume monster, serving as the clear top target for the Rams and veteran quarterback Matthew Stafford. That late-season run helped to push Nacua comfortably back inside Round One as the WR7. Like St. Brown, there is still some lingering draft capital bias in the dynasty community when it comes to Nacua’s value.

1.09 – Nico Collins, WR HOU

It was a frustrating season in some ways for the Texans’ offense. Second-year stars CJ Stroud and Tank Dell took significant steps back in development and dynasty value. Collins missed multiple games earlier in the season with a hamstring injury. Like Nacua, Collins came back strong and quickly regained any lost value. Collins’ 17.8 fantasy points per game made him the WR8 (tied with Lamb) for the year. This ninth-overall ranking for Collins matches his second-highest ADP of his career.

1.10 – Jahmyr Gibbs, RB DET

Over the final three months of the regular season, Gibbs, the Lions’ play-making running back, had climbed up to the dynasty RB1 position. Like the top two wideouts, Chase and Jefferson, the running back position has an interchangeable duo in Gibbs and Robinson. After superstar Saquon Barkley rested in the regular season finale, Gibbs actually finished the season as the RB1, based on total fantasy points.

1.11 – Brock Bowers, TE LV

For the second straight year, a rookie tight end has taken the league and dynasty world by storm, ascending to the TE1 rank. Most dynasty managers would agree though, that the situation feels very different with Bowers than Sam LaPorta one year ago. Bowers set multiple rookie records and this marks his first time with a first-round dynasty ADP.

1.12 – AJ Brown, WR PHI

The Eagles veteran receiver Brown is easily the oldest player among this first-round group but that’s not a knock on the pass catcher. Brown did miss some time this season but his 16.7 fantasy points per game made him the WR12, tied with the rookie Thomas. With many young players lurking in the second round and the 2025 rookie crop coming soon, I wouldn’t be surprised if Brown fell out of the first round in the coming months.

ROUND TWO:

2.01 Drake London, WR ATL
2.02 De’Von Achane, RB MIA
2.03 Marvin Harrison Jr, WR ARI
2.04 Breece Hall, RB NYJ
2.05 Garrett Wilson, WR NYJ
2.06 Ladd McConkey, WR LAC
2.07 Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR SEA
2.08 Trey McBride, TE ARI
2.09 Jonathan Taylor, RB IND
2.10 Tee Higgins, WR CIN
2.11 Saquon Barkley, RB PHI
2.12 Rashee Rice, WR KC

ROUND THREE:

3.01 DeVonta Smith, WR PHI
3.02 Rome Odunze, WR CHI
3.03 Zay Flowers, WR BAL
3.04 Bucky Irving, RB TB
3.05 George Pickens, WR PIT
3.06 Josh Allen, QB BUF
3.07 Kyren Williams, RB LAR
3.08 Chris Olave, WR NO
3.09 Lamar Jackson, QB BAL
3.10 Jordan Addison, WR MIN
3.11 Tyreek Hill, WR MIA
3.12 Jayden Daniels, QB WAS

ROUND FOUR:

4.01 Sam LaPorta, TE DET
4.02 Xavier Worthy, WR KC
4.03 Jaylen Waddle, WR MIA
4.04 Terry McLaurin, WR WAS
4.05 DK Metcalf, WR SEA
4.06 DJ Moore, WR CHI
4.07 Jameson Williams, WR DET
4.08 Joe Burrow, QB CIN
4.09 James Cook, RB BUF
4.10 Jalen Hurts, QB PHI
4.11 Josh Jacobs, RB GB
4.12 Derrick Henry, RB BAL

Monday Mocks: January 1QB Dynasty ADP