2024 Off-Season Mock Drafts: Rookie Fallout From an NFL Mock Draft
Don’t look now, but the NFL Draft is less than a week away. Where has the time gone? Instead of combing through another dynasty startup mock or a rookie mock – both of which will be essentially worthless once we get landing spots squared away – I wanted to look at a recent NFL mock draft.
CBS Sports recently released a full, seven-round NFL mock draft on April 11th. I went through the mock and listed the players by position with their projected teams and draft capital, and I wanted to discuss the fantasy fallout of these landing spots if they play out as predicted.
Quarterback
Day One
Nothing was surprising with the first and second picks, as everyone knows Caleb Williams is going first to the Bears, and as of this writing, Jayden Daniels is the favorite to go second overall to the Commanders. This mock had the Patriots selecting JJ McCarthy third overall, which would be a slight upset as Drake Maye is the current odds-on favorite for 1.03. But Maye didn’t fall too far, landing with the Vikings at 1.05 after they traded up to secure their signal-caller of the future. Michael Penix was the fifth and final first-round quarterback, going to the Raiders at 1.13, despite Las Vegas setting his number at 32.5.
Basing this purely on draft capital and landing spot, I’ve got to say that McCarthy looks like the biggest loser among the first-round quarterback picks. Who knows what this Bill Belichick-less Pats squad will look like, but given what we know of their currently rostered receiving weapons, there isn’t much to work with. If things played out this way in real life, I might bump McCarthy from my QB2 to my QB5. Maye landing in Minnesota under Kevin O’Connell with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and TJ Hockenson to choose from on Sundays would give him a bump as well. And no matter what you think of Penix, getting top-13 draft capital and pairing up with Davante Adams would make him a more attractive prospect.
Day Two
We’ve got a few compelling players and landing spots here, with Bo Nix, Spencer Rattler, and Michael Pratt finding themselves on the Broncos, Seahawks, and Cowboys, respectively. Denver desperately needs a starting quarterback, and Nix has an absurd amount of experience as a starter in college. The Geno Smith comeback tour took a detour in year two, and he’ll likely be replaced if he cannot replicate his 2022 success in 2024. There is a world where Dak Prescott isn’t on the Cowboys’ roster in 2025 and beyond. Given their history of success drafting non-first-round quarterbacks, if you’re looking for a sleeper QB, there is a world where Michael Pratt could be a fantasy viable player as the Cowboys’ starting QB as soon as 2025.
Day Three
None of the quartet of quarterbacks selected on day three of the draft have a path to fantasy relevancy. Joe Milton and Jordan Travis were intriguing late-round prospects to me, but not if they land with New England and Pittsburgh.
Running Back
Day One
Surprise, surprise, there isn’t a single day one running back pick this year. This is likely to be the norm moving forward, given the way today’s NFL values the position.
Day Two
We only saw a single running back in round two, with the Browns selecting Trey Benson with the 22nd pick of round two. Jonathan Brooks, MarShawn Lloyd, and Brealon Allen all went in round three to the Giants, Raiders, and Packers, respectively.
Benson is my RB1, and I don’t mind the Browns’ job long-term, but it’s not great for 2024. Jerome Ford was serviceable, and Nick Chubb should get back on the field before the end of the season, too. In a similar situation, Brooks isn’t likely to do much for fantasy until 2025, either. He’s coming off an injury that could lead him to miss half of his rookie campaign. I like him as the Giants’ clear RB1 in 2025, but as an injured rookie in 2024, not so much. I’m not the biggest Lloyd guy, but if he landed with the Raiders – who need a starting running back after the departure of Josh Jacobs – I would like the player more, and you could argue that Lloyd would be in the best position to succeed of all the day two backs. Braelon Allen to the Packers to play alongside Josh Jacobs feels like the pick was shoehorned in to create a new version of the Aaron Jones–AJ Dillon timeshare, no thanks.
Day Three
There are quite a few picks in this range (16 to be exact), so I’ll split it up into rounds four and five and then rounds six and seven.
Rounds Four and Five
Jaylen Wright is one of my favorite players in the entire draft, and with the Texans’ acquisition of Joe Mixon, he got one of my least favorite landing spots. People have been mocking Blake Corum to the Chargers all off-season – but in round two, not round five. So we get the landing spot people seem to have been clamoring for, but not the draft capital. I really like Audric Estime to the Panthers. He brings a different skill set than Miles Sanders or Chuba Hubbard, and I could see him as the best fantasy option of the three at the end of the year.
Will Shipley to the Raiders would interest me if the Raiders didn’t also draft Lloyd in round three. This turn of events hurts both players for fantasy. I don’t love Bucky Irving, the player, and I don’t love the Jacksonville landing spot. If things played out this way, I would absolutely have no Irving shares anywhere, at any price.
Now, we get into three of my favorite player-landing spot combinations among the running backs: Dylan Laube to the Rams, Tyrone Tracy to the Bills, and Isaiah Davis to the Cardinals. I can see a world where all three of them are used in a way that ensures fantasy productivity from day one in their respective systems. All three teams could use some depth, and I think each player brings a skill set that each team needs.
The final round five selection is the worst pick in this entire mock. Dallas desperately needs a lead running back, and from the way free agency has shaken out, they now have put themselves in a position where they must draft a running back. There are several options this year that could fill Dallas’ lead back void- and none of them are named Frank Gore Jr. If you smushed Gore Jr and current Cowboy Deuce Vaughn into one person, the new squished-together version would still only be 11’2″ tall and weigh 377 pounds – an underweight BMI of 14.8.
Rounds Six and Seven
I’m a fan of Ray Davis and Isaac Guerendo, but the landing spots in Indy and Detroit combined with round-six draft capital don’t inspire any confidence that they’ll ever get an opportunity to be fantasy-relevant, barring significant injuries ahead of them. With slightly better capital and much different teams, I could’ve easily been persuaded to bump them up ridiculously high in my rankings, but that is clearly not the case here.
On the other hand, despite being selected in the late sixth and into round seven, I see two players I would love in their new projected landing spots. Rasheen Ali to the Bengals and Jase McClellan to the Vikings would ensure I had almost 100% ownership of both of them. I believe McClellan is the most slept-on player in this draft. A lingering injury has kept him off everyone’s radar, and I will gladly let that value fall to me time and time again. In Ali’s case, I think he’s a middle-of-the-pack player, but the Bengals’ job is wide open for anyone to take over. Ali has as good a shot to lead the team in rushing as anyone else on the team.
The remaining backs don’t move the needle in any type of football, be it fantasy, flag, two-hand touch, or whatever. No, thank you.
Wide Receiver
DLF has 30 rookie receivers listed in our rankings. My personal rankings are 37 receivers deep. And CBS’ NFL mock had 34 receivers taken. The point is, in a deep wide receiver class, it looks like nearly all of the known options will be drafted this year.
Day One
Marvin Harrison Jr to the Cardinals at 1.04 is probably the most consistently mocked player-team combo outside of Williams to the Bears at 1.01. I think it’s a good spot for him, and more importantly, I think his presence in the offense is great for Trey McBride, Michael Wilson, and Kyler Murray. A big win for fantasy across the board.
Malik Nabers to the Giants is also a good spot. The Giants are desperate for receivers, but the only asterisk here is that Daniel Jones kinda-sorta stinks, and if Nabers is the only game in town, opposing defenses can key in on him to slow him down. It’s probably a fine spot long-term, but 2024 might be bumpy. Similarly, Rome Odunze should be great alongside Williams in Chicago for years to come. Still, in 2024, with DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Cole Kmet, and D’Andre Swift all competing with Odunze for targets, I’d temper my lofty Odunze expectations for 2024.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, I like Brian Thomas Jr with Aaron Rodgers in New York for a year or two, but who knows who will be throwing him the ball in 2026 and beyond, and it’s unlikely Thomas ever passes up Garrett Wilson in the pecking order in the Big Apple. A strong case could be made that Adonai Mitchell to the Chargers is as good as spot – or better – than Harrison Jr. to the Cards. He would be the clear WR1 from day one, and he’s tied to one of the league’s best, young quarterbacks, and a good coach who probably isn’t leaving town anytime soon. I’d have to start thinking long and hard about how high I would be willing to move Mitchell up in my rankings after getting one of the best landing spot/capital combinations in the 2024 draft class.
And then we’ve got the Panthers. Yeesh. Why not get a small receiver in the first round to go along with your small first-round quarterback from a year ago? Xavier Worthy is better than most of the combine speedsters we’ve seen in the past, but until I see more from Carolina as a whole, it’s hard to like this landing spot for anyone.
Day Two
Too many to lump together, so it looks like I’ll have to split up rounds two and three. This class is sick!
Round Two
Seeing Ladd McConkey to Buffalo with the 33rd overall pick excites me to an unhealthy level; sadly, McConkey is already my WR4, so there’s no way to move him any higher. Generally speaking, seeing New England draft Xavier Legette isn’t a spot I want to see anyone, but in the context of this mock, pairing the rookie receiver with the rookie QB makes me like both of them a little more.
I’m not a Troy Franklin guy, but arguably few spots would be better for him than Cincinnati. He can learn behind Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins for a year and hit the ground running in two receiver sets in 2025, catching balls from Joe Burrow after Higgins leaves Cincy. On the contrary, I can’t think of a worse spot for Ja’Lynn Polk – and I’m a Polk fan. I cannot find a path to meaningful targets in the near future if Polk is donning an Eagles jersey on Sundays.
Let’s close out round two with some unreasonable hot takes, shall we? If you’ve been following my articles this off-season, you’ll already know of my unreasonable affection for Ricky Pearsall. Landing with the Colts while getting mid-second capital, playing opposite Michael Pittman, would cause me to potentially push Pearsall into my top five wide receivers in this class. Additionally, every year, we see someone get the “Chiefs receiver bump,” with this year’s recipient being Malachi Corley. I’ve been cheerleading for Corley throughout the process and would be thrilled to see him play with Patrick Mahomes until the 2035 season.
Round Three
Although not as drool-inducing as round two, we still have plenty of fantasy goodness here in round three. I like Jermaine Burton to the Panthers in round three more than I like Worthy coming to the team in round one, but I still have my reservations with the offense as a whole. The Jameson Williams experiment looks like it isn’t working in Detroit, so I love the addition of Javon Baker here. He would start creeping up people’s boards if this happened.
Remember how much I liked Ricky Pearsall in Indy? Now, with the Colts adding Roman Wilson, suddenly, there are too many mouths to feed. Pittman, Pearsall, Josh Downs, Alec Pierce, and now Wilson, too? Plus, Ray Davis and Jonathan Taylor to go along with Jelani Woods, Kylen Granson, and Mo Alie-Cox, too. I’m all for surrounding Anthony Richardson with as many weapons as possible, and it’s probably wise for the NFL, but it would hurt everyone’s value in fantasy.
The Niners make a legacy pick, selecting Brenden Rice with the 30th pick of round three. If they do happen to trade Brandon Aiyuk, I like Rice’s potential; if not, I suspect he’ll be buried in the offense in 2024, and they will bring in someone else in 2025. The Jags selection of Jalen McMillan is another one of my favorites in this entire mock. Zay Jones and Christian Kirk are not insurmountable roadblocks to snaps, and truthfully, I’m not convinced Gabe Davis is either. I could imagine a world where McMillan and Parker Washington are their top two receivers in the 2025-2026 season.
Malik Washington would get the Pittsburgh receiver bump. The departure of Diontae Johnson gives the Steelers an immediate need at receiver, and Washington can be viable opposite George Pickens as a rookie. The final wide receiver of round three was Ainias Smith, who went to the Commanders. Smith is undersized, and I’m not really sure where he would fit into the Washington offense. I’m thinking of him as a less talented version of Rondale Moore in Kliff Kingsbury’s offense, and Moore did next to nothing with Kingsbury.
Day Three
There are still 15 more receivers who get drafted! I’ll try to pump through the day three picks, and it starts out easy for me. Keon Coleman to the Bills, Devontez Walker to the Chargers, and Luke McCaffrey to the Broncos; yes, yes, and more, yes. I love those spots for each of them. They would be perfect complimentary pieces to what each team already has, and they could all see WR2 volume as early as week one of the NFL season.
Jamari Thrash is underrated, and New Orleans can use help in the receiver room. I’m a big Bub Means guy and the Giants’ receiver room stinks. And the thought of monster receiver Johnny Wilson coming in as Travis Kelce‘s eventual replacement in Kansas City is too good to pass up. I’ve been on the Jha’Quan Jackson bandwagon for a few months now, and even with the Falcons’ off-season moves, they still need plenty of help. Jackson could easily be starting by mid-season. Isaiah Williams to the Raiders and Cornelius Johnson to the Rams round out the players who interest me as we wrap up the receivers. Everyone else is either a player I’m not high on, or they got the landing spot screw (looking at you, Jalen Coker).
Tight End
Days One and Two
I despise Brock Bowers to Seattle. They just resigned Noah Fant, drafted Jaxon Smith-Njigba a year ago and will have DK Metcalf locked in for the foreseeable future. He’d be fine there, but there is no way he’ll reach the lofty expectations people have for him in that environment. Now that my negative rant is out of the way, I love seeing Ben Sinnott to the Rams and Theo Johnson to the Bengals: two great tight end prospects and two great landing spots for fantasy. I would move both of them up significantly in this class if things played out this way.
Day Three
Not to the same extent as the previous two picks, but I also like the Cade Stover, Tanner McLachlan, and Erick All landing spots quite a bit. They could all be starters very early into the season, and with the flukiness of the position, they all have the potential to be TE2s as rookies.
As we dig through this list, quite a few late-round players might become fantasy-viable. Dallin Holker in New Orleans, Devin Culp, and McCallan Castles could all turn into something over the next few seasons with their new teams. I would be even more excited about Jared Wiley and AJ Barner, too, if their teams didn’t double-dip at the position in this draft. The only player I see in a bad landing spot where it still might not matter is Ja’Tavion Sanders. If any team in the NFL can make multip tight ends fantasy viable, it’s got to be the Ravens, right? Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely, Charlie Kolar, and Sanders would be the league’s greatest 1-2-3-4 punch at tight end, and it seems like a very Ravens move.
The Undrafteds
For the most part, this mock seemed to do a great job of making sure all the fantasy names were selected. There are always some surprising players who go undrafted, so there’s no reason to think that wouldn’t extend to a mock either. For me, the most significant omissions were running backs Dillon Johnson, Cody Schrader, Kimani Vidal, and Blake Watson. Only one receiver I expected to get drafted fell out of the draft, and I’m certain he would be a priority UDFA: Jacob Cowing. As far as the tight ends were concerned, maybe Tip Reiman and Bryson Nesbit would count, but it’s easy to imagine them both going undrafted.
We’re onto draft week, people! I hope you enjoyed this one last look at a mock before we have some actual landing spots to influence us. This series will be taking the week off during draft week, but I’ll be back after that with some mock data once we see the landing spots and draft capital of this exciting 2024 rookie class. Thanks for reading, and enjoy the draft.
- 2024 Off-Season Mock Drafts: Rookie Fallout From an NFL Mock Draft - April 20, 2024
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Drafts: A View from the 1.07 - April 17, 2024
- 2024 Off-Season Mock Drafts: Recent Rookie Risers and Fallers - April 13, 2024
