Four Late-Round Lottery Tickets
The sleeper, the hidden gem, the late-round lottery ticket, this is the player that every dynasty manager is trying to acquire in their rookie drafts to try and gain an advantage over the rest of their league. If you’re the one that acquires that diamond in the rough you gain a huge edge on your competition.
The 2022 NFL draft brought us day three picks like Dameon Pierce, Romeo Doubs, Isiah Pacheco, and Brock Purdy who all crushed their ADP in rookie drafts.
2023 brought us a few more late-round lottery tickets that cashed in:
- Puka Nacua, WR LAR (Round Five)
- Dontayvion Wicks, WR GB (Round Five)
- Chase Brown, RB CIN (Round Five)
- AT Perry, WR NOS (Round Six)
- Demario Douglas, WR NEP (Round Six)
Obviously, Puka Nacua is the headliner from this group after he set the rookie receptions and receiving yards record with 105 catches for 1,486 yards and 6 touchdowns. Nacua finished as the WR6 in PPR formats last season on a per-game basis.
While Nacua steals the show, we have a few more players who had respectable rookie fantasy seasons while also flashing some upside for the future. Wicks finished as the WR58 while being only a part-time player for the Packers during the first half of the season. AT Perry’s rookie season was similar. After not recording a single catch during the first nine weeks, AT Perry had 12 catches for 246 yards and 4 touchdowns in the final eight games of the season and looks to be a regular rotation player for the Saints heading into 2024.
This class wasn’t as deep with gems as the 2022 class was, but with the crown jewel of Puka Nacua, it’s hard to compare the two. We’re going to look at each round of the 2024 draft and try to identify one player from each that has the potential to be a late-round lottery ticket for your dynasty team heading into the season.
Round Four
Ray Davis, RB BUF
I’m going to avoid discussing three obvious names in this round: Ja’Tavion Sanders, Troy Franklin, and Javon Baker. Sanders and Franklin probably should have been day two picks but were selected with the first two picks in the 4th round. Further, Baker is everyone’s favorite sleeper, and some dynasty analysts have gone as far as to say you should be drafting Baker over his future teammate Ja’Lynn Polk who was drafted with the 37th pick. It’s safe to say that none of these three fit the bill of a sleeper.
Instead, I want to look at Kentucky’s Ray Davis as a potential sleeper out of the fourth round of the NFL draft. Davis was drafted with the 28th pick of the 4th round, 128th overall, by the Buffalo Bills. He’s currently the RB10 according to DLF’s superflex rookie ADP and is going at the 3.11 in rookie drafts.
Davis isn’t a perfect prospect by any means. He’s a 5th-year senior who amassed 3,640 rushing yards and 29 touchdowns during his stints at Temple, Vanderbilt, and Kentucky. His 3.39 yards after contact per attempt and 25.2% missed tackle forced rate are both about average for this class.
Davis’s main selling point as a sleeper is his beautiful landing spot. James Cook had an excellent 2023 season, but there is a reluctance to give him a full workload. Latavius Murray and Ty Johnson combined for 124 attempts on the season and seven different games with double-digit rushing attempts. With Murray gone and Johnson being bad, Ray Davis should slide in as the RB2 on an offense that likes to rotate backs and provide a much-needed compliment to James Cook’s play style.
Round Five
Tyrone Tracy Jr., RB NYG
Everyone is talking about Tyrone Tracy but this wouldn’t be a 2024 dynasty sleeper article without mentioning the Purdue hybrid. During his five years in college, Tracy gained 951 rushing yards and 1,201 receiving yards. However, we have to look past his raw production because he started his career as the worst thing possible: an Iowa Hawkeye wide receiver. He transitioned to RB during his final year at Purdue and that’s when an NFL future developed.
Tracy only ran for 714 yards and 8 touchdowns last season as a Boilermaker, but his efficiency numbers and advanced metrics explain why many are so excited about his potential upside. Tracy’s 4.44 yards after contact per attempt were 7th in the entire country last season and his 40.4% missed tackle forced rate was 5th in the entire country. This kind of raw rushing ability, combined with his history as a pass catcher, makes him an exciting sleeper option.
Finally, Tracy got selected by a team with very little competition at running back. The Giants signed Devin Singletary to a cheap three-year contract this offseason and behind him is only Eric Gray and Gary Brightwell. Tracy is going to get every opportunity this season to find the field and carve out a role.
Round Six
Kimani Vidal, RB LAC
My favorite dynasty sleeper has to be Kimani Vidal who was selected with the 5th pick of the 6th round, 181st overall, by the Los Angeles Chargers. Standing only 5’7’’ and 217 pounds, Vidal is a compact bowling ball but I absolutely love his game.
This past season he ran for 1,661 yards and 14 touchdowns on 5.6 yards per attempt. He was 3rd in the country in yards after contact and 2nd in the country in missed tackles forced. Vidal also impressed at the combine with a 4.46 40-yard dash time and an 8.81 RAS.
You’re going to notice a similar theme with most of my sleepers: opportunity. Just like the two running backs before him, Vidal enters a running back room that’s ripe for the taking. The Chargers let Austin Ekeler walk and brought in the old Ravens duo of Gus Edwards and JK Dobbins to replace him. Respectfully, I’ll believe Dobbins is healthy when I see it and Gus Edwards is average at best when it comes to running the football. Respectfully. Vidal has the chance to immediately become the RB2 and push an aging Gus Edwards for RB1 consideration on a team that figures to run it a lot under Jim Harbaugh.
Round Seven
Jaheim Bell, TE NEP
Finding a sleeper in the 7th round of this draft class is tough. Ignoring QB Michael Pratt, there were only five skill position players drafted in this round and two of them were WRs going to the Chargers in Brenden Rice and Cornelius Johnson. I don’t think Rice is a bad bet as a late-round sleeper in a relatively barren WR room, but instead, we’re going to focus on a tight end for this last long shot.
The New England Patriots used the 2024 draft as a chance to reset their offense by using seven of their eight draft picks on the offensive side of the ball. Their final pick was used on Jaheim Bell out of South Carolina. The TE room isn’t quite as empty as some of the RB rooms I highlighted above, but I’m not as worried as you might believe.
The Patriots signed Austin Hooper this offseason to a one-year deal with only $1.25 million guaranteed and he’s awful. He set career lows in receptions, yards, touchdowns, yards per route run, and PFF grade in 2023. The other tight end on the roster ahead of Bell is Hunter Henry who had six touchdowns this season, but also a career-low in yards per route run. This room is a little crowded for 2024, but both of these veteran tight ends will turn 30 during the 2024 season and are not part of New England’s long-term plans.
Instead, I’m going to bet on Bell’s natural talents breaking out and earning him snaps. Two metrics are incredibly predictive for TEs translating from college to the NFL: 10-yard split, and missed tackles forced rate. For reference, Sam LaPorta was 5th in the 2023 class with a 1.59 10-yard split time and 2nd in missed tackles forced per reception. Athletic, elusive tight ends succeed in the NFL. Bell ranked 4th in this class with a 1.58 10-yard split, and 1st in missed tackles forced per reception. Bell is a monster at making defenders miss, his 38.3% missed tackles forced rate is the 2nd best mark for all tight ends since 2018.
While Bell might have limited action in year one, I think he’s a worthy taxi squad stash for the 2025 season and beyond.
