2024 Off-Season Mock Drafts: Recent Rookie Risers and Fallers
I recently wrote about the impact the combine had on rookie ADP, comparing the pre-and post-combine mock draft results. In this edition of the series, I wanted to see if the movers were still moving, comparing results from a single March mock with an April mock. Obviously, any single mock can widely vary, so don’t put too much stock in these single results, but I wanted to see if another month of rumors and pro-day results moved the needle at all.
Round One
The top eight in superflex has been locked in for months, and I can’t imagine anything shaking that up. Here, in single-QB, the top five seems to be solidifying as well. Comparing these two mocks, the shocking outlier was found in April mock #4, with Jayden Daniels selected sixth overall as the QB1 in that particular draft. Caleb Williams has gone eighth in many single quarterback mocks I’ve seen, and here he went eighth in both mocks again. Daniels was a first-round pick in both drafts, so he seems to be emerging as the QB2 for fantasy purposes.
In March, we didn’t see any running backs selected, and as the NFL draft and real dynasty rookie drafts approach, we’re seeing the RBs creep up a bit. Positional scarcity always inflates running back prices, but this season we also have an absurdly deep receiver group, further pumping up running backs. As April rolled around, Trey Benson and Jaylen Wright snuck into round one, and if Blake Corum or Jonathon Brooks get round two draft capital, I can see three or four running backs sliding into round one by the end of May.
Round Two
Into the second round, we go! I mentioned how running backs tend to start bubbling up in fantasy circles as the NFL draft nears, and with no first-round running backs in the March #9 mock, the second round kicked off with a bang. Round two began with RBs in a row, and eight of the 12 picks were running backs. All of those running backs are poised to explode if they get day two draft capital.
There were a few surprises to me in this round. The first was in March, with Ja’Tavion Sanders going 21st overall. Considering this was not a tight end premium mock, that draft capital seemed too rich for my blood- especially considering some of the receivers that were still on the board. Again, looking at two individual mocks, this is exceptionally anecdotal evidence, but in April #4, Sanders was a third-round pick, which seems about right at this point in the process.
Another slight surprise was Adonai Mitchell falling to 2.03 in April #4. Mitchell appears to be rising up everyone’s board, but in this draft, he took a bit of a dive, as pick 15 was the furthest I’ve seen him fall over the last two months. The final thing I thought was odd was that Keon Coleman stayed relatively flat. More than anyone, he seems like one of the biggest fallers who dynasty managers are moving away from. He saw a drop off from February to March, but maybe he has stabilized as folks wait to see how the NFL values him.
Round Four
The first name that jumps off the page for me in both drafts is Ricky Pearsall. He might be my favorite player in this entire class, especially when you factor in cost. Pearsall was a late third in February, an early third/late second in March, and I suspect his April ADP will be in the mid-to-late second. I also believe he will be an early second-round pick in the NFL draft, and his dynasty ADP will continue to trend upwards. I imagine he’ll be in the 2.02-2.05 range when all is said and done.
In both drafts, many known “name” talents were still on the board. Wide receivers Roman Wilson, Ja’Lynn Polk, Jalen McMillan, and Javon Baker, as well as running back Bucky Irving, were still lingering.
Devontez Walker is fading in the eyes of the dynast community. In these two examples, he fell a full 12 spots over the course of the month. But aside from him, most of the players in this range didn’t move much. The third round seems to be solidifying, and it looks like a great year to have multiple late picks at your disposal.
Round Four
To close out the draft, we saw some slight shake-ups as we wrapped things up. Luke McCaffrey is quietly rising after going undrafted in 40% of February’s mock drafts. That number fell to 20% in March- including this draft- and he nearly snuck into the third round in this April example.
There also seem to be several quality sleepers that I’m very interested in. Theo Johnson is a tremendous value as a fourth-round pick. Brenden Rice is being overlooked by everyone. Dylan Laube and Cody Schrader are two of my favorite late-round running backs- and I like Dillon Johnson just a hair less. Jase McClellan is one of my favorite sleepers, as a lingering injury has knocked him entirely off the radar of dynasty managers.
I already mentioned Theo Johnson as a value in the fourth, but other tight ends like Erick All and Ben Sinnott have ridiculous upside and have no business going this late in drafts. I hate using early rookie draft capital on tight ends, but I love burning late draft picks. If I had a roster in need of tight end depth, I would be very excited to add Johnson, All, and Sinnott to close out my draft.
Any single draft is subject to some outlier selections, so it is hard to compare two randomly selected mock drafts, but seeing some of the changes in player valuation is always beneficial. With the NFL draft coming up in a few weeks and (typically) rookie drafts following right behind it, we are now in crunch time as far as draft prep goes. I hope these off-season mock drafts have been helpful to you so far as we start to identify trends and player movement ahead of the NFL draft. Those landing spots and draft capital will be the final pieces to the puzzle as we prepare for the 2024 dynasty season.
- Final Rookie Report Card: Quarterbacks - January 11, 2025
- Dynasty Rookie Report Card: Michael Penix and Keon Coleman - January 4, 2025
- Dynasty Rookie Report Card: Drake Maye and Kimani Vidal - December 28, 2024
