Dynasty GAAP Memo: 2024 1QB Rookie Mock Draft
If you have read my work before, you know I write in the form of “accounting memos” and apply accounting and finance themes to dynasty fantasy football. For anyone who has not been exposed, the format is very standard. Each memo will start with the “purpose.” Next, it will supply background and then outline the applicable “guidance,” or accounting literature utilized. Last will be the analysis and conclusion. The goal is to state the issue and quickly address it. My write-ups will follow this same logic. To summarize, welcome to “Good at Analyzing Players” or “GAAP”, a play on “Generally Accepted Accounting Principles” (and yes, my wife did come up with it).
Purpose:
The purpose of this memo is to perform a 2024 mock rookie draft for 1QB leagues.
Background:
Before we jump into our shiny new toys, I wanted to highlight a few concepts that I evaluate prior to drafting any rookies. The overall premise is highlighting what drives a player’s value a year from now. The intent of rookie picks is to pick players that ascend in value. There is an opportunity cost associated with rookie picks. Meaning, that you could potentially move a mid-first for a player like DK Metcalf or Tee Higgins if you wanted stability. However, rookie picks ooze with upside and potential. The hope is that you want to spend picks on players that will be worth more than Metcalf or Higgins in a year with those picks. The precision on that is paper thin, but one of the best ways to accumulate massive value in dynasty.
I also believe people in dynasty circles tend to blindly state “talent over situation.” I honestly am a bit contrarian and try to evaluate three metrics. See the diagram and discussion below:
- Talent: I firmly believe that if you aren’t talented or athletic enough, you’ll never be successful enough in the NFL to be fantasy viable. Players need to have one or more special components to their game (i.e., elite route runner, YAC, 50/50 balls, tackle-breaking, etc.). Poster Child: Puka Nacua (5th Round NFL Pick)
- Opportunity: This is the one that I tend to think is the most underrated. Maybe not if you plan to hold a player for 2-3 and wait. However, from my experience, some leagues do not even last that long. I want to ensure I see early returns on my rookie picks. Poster Child: Jaxon Smith Njigba (2023 rookie season)
- Draft Capital: The great thing about the NFL draft is that the order that a player goes shows you exactly what professional scouts think of these players. As a couch GM, I tend to think they know better than I do. Draft capital unfairly or not does impact a player’s opportunity heading into their rookie seasons. Poster Child: Hakeem Butler (Dynasty Community loved him and he fell to the fourth round NFL pick and never produced)
The opportunity is interesting because a pick today will lose value over the next 12 months if they do not start producing (like JSN from last year). I wrote previously on a case study that I coined the “Chris Olave Theory.” The premise is that I try to identify rookies who will produce immediately and have the best opportunity. That combination of youth and early production materializes in dynasty gold by mid-season. For the 2023 season, I identified Jordan Addison, and, during his rookie season, he accumulated value early. So, I bought early and sold late in the season. The graph below does a good job illustrating this theory, but if you haven’t checked out that memo, it’s one of my best and I would recommend it.
This theory only works if you have an active league because it is predicated on trading and more active managing.
Now onto the 1QB rookie mock! I will pull from the theories introduced here. However, I will note that I am a bit uncomfortable. The contents of my memos are often “data driven” with some judgment applied. This exercise will be mostly judgmental with some data, but here we go!
Resources:
- Sleeper: Great interface for looking up historical statistics
- DLF Dynasty Rankings: Best dynasty rankings in the industry
- DLF Average Draft Position (“ADP”) Data: Best resource to gauge current player value. Based on real Dynasty Startups.
Analysis:
Welcome to the fun stuff! Below I have laid out my rookie mock draft as of today. I will try to identify any material tier breaks for you. As a reminder, this is a 1QB (not Superflex) and assumed to be a 12-team league.
Round One
1.01: Marvin Harrison Jr., ARI (WR)
Talent? “Generational”
Opportunity? He will be the #1 target in that offense immediately and Kyler Murray has proven he can support WR1s in the past.
Draft Capital? Top 5 NFL Draft pick.
Check, check, and check. Do not overthink it.
1.02: Malik Nabers, NYG (WR)
Similar to Harrison above, do not overthink it. I have seen some people not loving the Giants’ landing spot. However, he will amass 140+ targets in year one. That is often one of the thresholds for WR1s in fantasy. Will they be great targets from Daniel Jones? Absolutely not, but there will be a ton of them.
————Tier Break————
1.03: Rome Odunze, CHI (WR)
If I have the 1.03, I must pick Odunze. I am a huge fan.
Although, he will be behind DJ Moore and Keenan Allen during his rookie season, I believe there will be buying opportunities over the next six to eight months. Although, this is where I just need Odunze on my roster. I love the player, talent, and that he is attached to Caleb Williams. Do not confuse him with JSN from last year. Better talent and better situation. The opportunity will come. I expect a late season breakout (i.e., Rashee Rice, Amon St. Brown).
1.04: Caleb Williams, CHI (QB)
I understand wanting a skill position here and a QB is not sexy in 1-QB. However, Williams’ floor is CJ Stroud from 2023. His weapons are unreal in DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, D’Andre Swift, and Cole Kmet. We have never seen a #1 overall pick go into a situation like this that I can remember. This is a value play to lock in a weekly starter on your team for the next 10 years.
Also, I love the swagger. I know and understand that has been a turn-off, but he just seems like a confident and goofy kid figuring it out. I can root for that. If you have not watched Kyle Brandt’s rockstar rant on this. It is worth checking out.
1.05: Brock Bowers, LV (TE)
If you are hoping for Sam LaPorta’s production from 2023, I think you will be disappointed. However, Bowers is a special player at a position we are always looking for difference makers. The Raiders offense needs a weapon behind Davante Adams to go with Jakobi Meyers. I like him to be the #2 option in that offense by the end of the season. Think Dalton Kincaid from 2023.
————Tier Break————
This is my favorite tier because you can mix and match these guys and pick whatever you like best. Honestly, there probably is not a wrong answer.
1.06: Ladd McConkey, LAC (WR)
The Chargers have the most available targets in the NFL (395 vacated targets) after losing Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. If McConkey assumes 35% of those, that is 140 targets. I often do not like players who did not eclipse 800 yards in college. However, his opportunity will have flex value immediately week one. It also does not hurt that he is linked with Justin Herbert.
1.07: Brian Thomas Jr, JAC (WR)
Thomas reminds me of how I felt with Justin Jefferson a few years ago. If you remember, Jefferson was the second option behind Jamar Chase similar to how Thomas was the second option behind Nabors at LSU. Jefferson was going around 1.07 in his rookie drafts. I am putting Thomas in the same spot and hoping to be too low again.
It does not hurt that he has the best draft capital of this tier, being linked to Trevor Lawerence, and will slot into the Calvin Ridley role from 2023 (WR18 in PPR).
1.08: Xavier Worthy, KC (WR)
As a Chiefs fan, I LOVED this pick. The Chiefs now have the most depth at the skill positions that they have had since Patrick Mahomes took over. Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice can take the middle of the field and beat zone coverage. Marquise Brown and Worthy can take the top off and use their speed on the perimeter. It is a perfect melody of differing skill sets and Mahomes is the best maestro in the NFL.
This diverse group will hinder Worthy in 2024. However, I expect huge plays that will help retain his value. I will be aggressively trying to obtain Worthy by week four if he is not producing.
1.09: Keon Coleman, BUF (WR)
If you followed the Bills, they trade down twice (pick #28 to #32 and then from #32 to #33). All those picks turned into WRs. That to me means that they thought their guy would be there later or that they had a batch of players with a similar grade. Both of which are positives for Coleman. With Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis moving on, the Bills have 317 vacated targets (second most in the NFL). I bet Coleman can assume a lot of those. Also, that Josh Allen guy is pretty good.
————Tier Break————
1.10: Jonathon Brooks, CAR (RB)
I know. I know. I am too low on Brooks. I just want the WRs. Brooks has the best draft capital in this class at the RB position and walks into a great opportunity. The Panthers tried this with Miles Sanders last year. The difference is that the Panthers invested heavily in the offensive line this offseason and have a capable WR core now. I expect Brooks to produce as a top 24 RB in year one. If you needed an RB, I would not blame you for taking him as high as 6 or 7. He should be a plug-and-play as soon as he is healthy.
————Tier Break————
1.11: Jayden Daniels, WAS (QB)
Daniels is a bit polarizing for me after how much I liked Justin Fields. However, if you consider Justin Fields’ 3 years to be his floor and Lamar Jackson his ceiling, it is a value here. His rushing ability will make him a difference maker for fantasy if he is starting. He also has real NFL weapons in Terry McLaurin, Austin Ekeler, Josh Doctson, and Brian Robinson Jr.
I view it like you would with drafting a rookie RB. If you get production beyond the rookie contract, you are thrilled. I also think Daniels is a better prospect than Justin Fields for what it is worth.
After this pick, I feel like the real draft starts! You can mix and match the players above, but I feel like that is the top eleven in most leagues.
————Tier Break————
1.12: Trey Benson, ARI (RB)
James Conner is 28, does not have a great history of health, and is entering a contract year. Benson should be the incumbent week one and the starter by week eight. Book it.
A gentle reminder that Connor has been RB5, RB19, and RB18 in PPR since he got to the Cardinals. Benson compares favorably to JK Dobbins from a profile perspective as well and that is a player I was very high on prior to his injuries.
Early third round draft capital is enough for RBs and for me to be confident in Benson at the end of the first round.
Round Two
Please see the draft results below. Full Disclosure: For rounds 2 and 3, I am still working through my process. This is very preliminary.
2.01:Ricky Pearsall, SF (WR)
This to me is the perfect spot for Pearsall at the 2.02. We all have read the Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk trade rumors. To me, spending a first-round pick at the position means that Pearsall is a long-term replacement for one of them. Depending upon how that shakes out, Pearsall will learn year one and could explode in year 2.
He is a quick WR that gets open with great hands. Kinda reminiscent of the scouting reports we saw on Brandin Ayuik four years ago. I am confident in Kyle Shanahan figuring it out and Pearsall will be fantasy viable in his career. Just might be in year 2, but at a second-round cost, sign me up.
2.02: Xavier Legette, CAR (WR)
Everyone wants to say Legette is Deebo Samuel. I do not think that is technically true. They have comparable skill but comparing Legette to his ceiling feels like a bad take. However, Curtis Samuel is often deployed that way as well. I expect Legette to be somewhere in the middle of the Samuels (Deebo and Curtis).
Also, we play fantasy for fun, right? Legette in interviews with his accent is electric. That intangible cannot be ignored.
————Tier Break————
2.03: Ja’Lynn Polk, NE (WR)
Polk came onto my radar early as someone who the NFL might be higher on than the dynasty community early on. I kept hearing things like “I went to go watch Rome Odunze tape and came away impressed with Polk.” The Patriots thought the same as they took Polk in the early and could have taken Ladd McConkey at 34 overall but traded down instead.
Polk walks into the NFL’s most barren WR room with a huge opportunity. However, the ghosts of Juju Smith-Schuster and Kendrick Bourne do not scare anyone. I am Demario “Pop” Douglas truther, but he is a different receiver than Polk who has more prototypical size. He also gets paired with Drake Maye and there is something when you pair a QB/WR in the same draft class with high picks.
2.04: Drake Maye, NE (QB)
I saw something over the weekend that I thought was very interesting. Maye played at North Carolina and is the highest drafted QB since Josh Allen to not have a single teammate drafted in the first one hundred picks since Josh Allen. That interests me. Maye was able to climb draft boards and produce without high-end NFL prospects on the roster.
You may have to wait, but Maye reminds me of what we thought of Justin Herbert when he came out.
2.05: Adonai Mitchell, IND (WR)
Admittedly, Mitchell was my favorite of the two Texas receivers entering Thursday night. However, he slid to #52 overall and landed a crowded depth chart. I like Anthony Richardson, but I am not convinced he can make three WRs fantasy viable with Michael Pittman, Josh Downs, and Adonai Mitchell.
To be candid, I wanted to move Mitchell down but draft capital and talent won out over opportunity.
2.06: JJ McCarthy, MIN (QB)
McCarthy gets to throw to Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and TJ Hockenson and will be a day one starter. That is quite the floor for his production.
————Tier Break————
2.07: Jaylen Wright, MIA (RB)
Incumbent to Raheem Mostert who is cuttable for the Dolphins in 2025. Mostert is also 32 so he will probably get opportunities in 2024.
Oh yeah, Mostert also scored 18 TDs in 2023.
2.08: Blake Corum, LAR (RB)
I know everyone saw this as a slight to Kyren Williams. I really think that it was that they did not want to have to sign Darrell Henderson off the street again in the case of a Williams injury. Off the street, Henderson had three RB2 finishes in four starts. I bet Corum can out-produce that given the opportunity. I do expect the Rams will rotate Kyren Williams out more as well to keep him healthy as well, so you could flex Corum in a pinch.
2.09: Troy Franklin, DEN (WR)
I love Franklin because he is a walking “Clifford Franklin” reference. The NFL did not seem to appreciate that as much as I did as he fell to the fourth round. Normally, that would push him to the third round or later for me. However, he landed with his college QB Bo Nix. I will bet that chemistry continues in the NFL.
2.10: MarShawn Lloyd, GB (RB)
We know the Packers like to use a two-back system. He should have RB upside if anything happens to Josh Jacobs.
2.11: Jermaine Burton, CIN (WR)
First round talent but allegedly still trying to figure out what it means to be a pro. He worked out with Bengals legend TJ Houshmandzadeh this offseason, which I think will help. All upside pick late in the second round. Tee Higgins should move on in 2025 if not before.
2.12: Roman Wilson, PIT (WR)
When the best team in the NFL at scouting the WR position drafts a receiver in the first three rounds, you pay attention. Does not hurt they need a receiver opposite George Pickens.
Round Three
3.01: Ben Sinnott, WAS (TE)
My Cole Turner hopes are gone, but Sinnott should be a day one starter and we know rookie QBs like the TEs in the middle of the field.
3.02: Malachi Corley, NYJ (WR)
Every class has a “peak Randall Cobb” in it (and honestly, I do not know what that is supposed to mean). Corley is this year’s and he just so happened to land with peak Randall Cobb’s QB.
3.03: Bo Nix, DEN (QB)
First round QB and should be a day one starter. Value.
3.04: Michael Penix Jr., ATL (QB)
Who wants to wait at least two years in 1QB? Not me. Although, I was higher on the player than most.
————Tier Break————
3.05: Luke McCaffrey, WAS (WR)
I trust that all McCaffrey’s are good at football.
3.06: Javon Baker, NE (WR)
Somehow, when teams double dip, the second player often supplants the first. Is this the next instance of that with Baker and Polk?
3.07: Devontez Walker, BAL (WR)
The Raven’s third option in the passing game is wide open behind Mark Andrews and Zay Flowers.
3.08: Ray Davis, BUF (RB)
Thunder to James Cook’s lightning?
3.09: Braelon Allen, NYJ (RB)
Breece Hall handcuff.
3.10: Bucky Irving, TB (RB)
We all are not sold on Rachaad White long term.
3.11: Audric Estime, DEN (RB)
Sean Payton did not draft Javonte Williams.
3.12: Will Shipley, PHI (RB)
Shipley has PPR upside.
Honorary Mentions
Jalen McMillan, TB (WR)
I know a lot of analysts that I respect are high on him, but a crowded depth chart.
Ja’Tavion Sanders, CAR (TE)
The Panthers have been looking for an answer at TE since Greg Olsen retired.
Conclusion:
Honestly, I have never done this exercise before. I usually evaluate each pick team by team. However, if I had done this prior to the 2023 rookie drafts, I would have had almost 100% ownership of Sam LaPorta, and I am kicking myself for that.
This was a fruitful exercise and would encourage everyone to go through it. When you are going through it, I would always think about the talent, opportunity, and draft capital and let that be your guide.
“The achievements of an organization are the results of the combined effort of each individual.”
- Dynasty GAAP Memo: 2024 1QB Rookie Mock Draft - April 29, 2024
- Dynasty GAAP Memo: Diontae Johnson - March 29, 2024
- Dynasty GAAP Memo: 2024 Free Agent Wide Receivers and the Christian Kirk Model - March 11, 2024
