Dynasty Statistical Edges: Week 15

If you follow me on Twitter, you’ve probably noticed a series of tweets I share on a weekly basis regarding player and team defensive performances, all from a fantasy lens. I’m going to be sharing some of that same information with you here.

I use this each week as I am making my own lineup and waiver wire decisions and thought you might find this valuable as well.

Note: The scoring system used for this data is always PPR with four points for passing touchdowns.

Quarterbacks

Week 14 QB1s

If 2023 has been the year of the backup quarterback, Week Fourteen was the ultimate example of that shift. Jake Browning finished as the QB4 for the second straight week and now has produced more top-five fantasy games this season than his teammate Joe Burrow. Bailey Zappe eclipsed 20 fantasy points for just the second time in his career as he led the Patriots to a surprise win. Mitch Trubisky stepped in for an injured Kenny Pickett and scored more fantasy points than Pickett ever has in a game. Joe Flacco has the magic touch, matching Deshaun Watson for number of three-passing touchdown games in a Browns uniform. Finally, Zach Wilson is back and this version was actually good. Let’s see if he can keep it up.

Season-Long QB1s

The quarterback position underwent a great deal of shake up in Week Fourteen. As expected, coming off a bye week, Lamar Jackson climbed back into the top-four quarterbacks on the year. Brock Purdy (QB7 to QB5) also moved up following another big game. CJ Stroud was forced from his game early and his numbers obviously suffered, though he was struggling through his worst game as a pro even before the hard hit. He dropped down to QB6 on the year and will fall more if he’s unable to go in Week Fifteen. Justin Herbert also suffered an injury but we now know his season is over. His drop from QB6 to QB9 is just the beginning as he’ll fall from the season-long QB1 ranks soon. Finally, Trevor Lawrence surprisingly was in the lineup for the Jaguars and is now back inside the top-twelve, replacing veteran Jared Goff.

Most QB1 Games This Season

Most QB1 Games Allowed

The Commanders had the week off from giving up bunches of fantasy points but they’re back in Week Fifteen and set to face Matthew Stafford and the Rams. Stafford didn’t post a single QB1 game through the first eleven weeks of the season but he’s riding a hot streak and has finished as a top-eight scorer in three straight games. With Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp both ready to go, Stafford is a solid bet this week.

The Jaguars have given up nine QB1 games and now face Lamar Jackson on Sunday night. You’ve already got Jackson locked into your playoff lineup, but this should make you even more confident.

Other defenses to target this week include the Eagles (vs. Geno Smith?), Buccaneers (vs. Jordan Love), Chargers (vs. Aidan O’Connell) and Lions (vs. Russell Wilson.)

The Ravens and Panthers have each allowed just two QB1 games on the season. That leaves a huge challenge for Trevor Lawrence (vs. BAL) and Desmond Ridder (vs. CAR). It’s easy to leave Ridder on your bench (or waiver wire) but Lawrence will surely leave dynasty managers with a difficult decision this week. I’ll be benching him in leagues I have options.

Other teams that have been slowing down opposing signal callers include the Jets (vs. Tagovailoa), Browns (vs. Justin Fields) and Patriots (vs. Patrick Mahomes.) Each of these teams are allowing less than 18 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Do you dare bench Mahomes in the fantasy playoffs? He has just one top-ten fantasy performance since Week Seven and is the QB16 over the past month.

Running Backs

Week 14 RB1s

No one saw this coming. Week Fourteen began with a surprising performance from veteran running back Ezekiel Elliott. Even after starter Rhamondre Stevenson was ruled out, Elliott did not seem like an obvious fantasy starter. After all, the entire Patriots offense has been a disaster this season and Elliott has looked old and slow when he’s been on the field. Volume is king though and Zeke got that on Thursday. Not only did his 27 fantasy points best any performance from Stevenson all season, but it was even more than Elliott’s former teammate Tony Pollard has produced this season. Shout out me for the ESPN mention.

Season-Long RB1s

The top-half of the RB1 group is nearly locked in with Christian McCaffrey now holding a nearly 75-point lead over RB2 Raheem Mostert. Bijan Robinson and Breece Hall are back among the season-long RB1s following their strong Week Fourteen performances. They replace the injured Brian Robinson and Isiah Pacheco.

Most RB1 Games This Season

Most RB1 Games Allowed

The Cardinals were on bye last week but still held onto the “crown” allowing the most top-24 fantasy performances to the running back position. Christian McCaffrey is in for a huge week and could carry teams into the next round of the playoffs. The Panthers and Seahawks have allowed 15 top-24 games, which is good news for Bijan Robinson (vs. CAR) and D’Andre Swift (vs. SEA) this week.

Other teams to target when looking for a Week Fifteen running back include the Colts (vs. Najee Harris/Jaylen Warren), Chargers (vs. Josh Jacobs?) and Raiders (vs. Austin Ekeler.)

The Lions have allowed just six top-24 games on the season to opposing running backs and will look to slow down Javonte Williams in Week Fifteen. The Cowboys (vs. James Cook) and 49ers (vs. James Conner) are next in line, allowing seven top-24 games.

Other teams to avoid this week, if possible, are the Falcons (vs. Chuba Hubbard), Eagles (vs. Kenneth Walker/Zach Charbonnet) and the Vikings (vs. Joe Mixon.)

Wide Receivers

Week 14 WR1s

In a crucial division matchup against the Buccaneers, Drake London put together his best game of the season, catching ten passes for 172 yards to finish as the WR2. Rams veteran Cooper Kupp busted out of a mini-slump while the Ravens duo of Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham each finishes as top-ten scorers for the week.

Season-Long WR1s

The top twelve wide receivers went almost completely unchanged. Bears receiver DJ Moore jumped from WR10 to WR7 after his huge performance. WR1 Tyreek Hill holds a nearly 40-point lead over CeeDee Lamb.

Most WR1 Games This Season

Most WR1 Games Allowed

The Eagles remain a weekly target for opposing wide receivers. They’ve now allowed 22 top-24 fantasy performances, seven more than any other squad. This week, it’s all systems go for DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. If you’re feeling frisky, you can even use rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

The Commanders (vs. Kupp/Puka Nacua), Jaguars (vs. Flowers/Beckham) and Giants (vs. Chris Olave) are other teams to target this week.

The Broncos have been playing lock down defense for the past two months and remain a team to avoid. This week, that means altering expectations for Amon-Ra St. Brown. Other teams to avoid in Week Fifteen include the Jets (vs. Tyreek Hill/Jaylen Waddle), Browns (vs. DJ Moore), Falcons (vs. Adam Thielen) and Saints (vs. WanDale Robinson).

Tight Ends

Week 14 TE1s

Veteran tight ends Evan Engram and David Njoku stayed hot as they finished as the top two scorers for the week. Backups Isaiah Likely, Davis Allen and Tucker Kraft took advantage of injury-related opportunity to finish among the top-twelve for the week.

Season-Long TE1s

Njoku jumped from TE10 to TE7 for the season while injured Mark Andrews continued his slow fall. He’s down to TE9 but there is a chance he still finishes among the TE1 group, which would certainly say more about the tight end position than anything else.

Most TE1 Games This Season

Most TE1 Games Allowed

The Bengals are the team to target when looking for a Week Fifteen tight end, which means big things for Vikings star TJ Hockenson this week. The Texans (vs. Chigoziem Okonkwo), Rams (vs. Logan Thomas) and Buccaneers (vs. Kraft) are other defenses to target this week.

Although Travis Kelce hung a TE1 game on the Bills last week, they remain a defense to shy away from. That could mean a slow week for Cowboys tight end Jake Ferguson. Other tight ends to bypass this week include Cole Kmet (vs. CLE), Dalton Kincaid (vs. DAL), Dalton Schultz (vs. TEN) and Juwan Johnson (vs. NYG.)

Finally, here is the chart summarizing how teams have fared against each position. I’ve also included the schedule for this week for reference.

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.

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