Dynasty Target and Regression Trends: Week Seven
Welcome! In this series, I try and be short, sharp, and to the point while offering some underrated trends in volume and regression.
So, let’s get to it, shall we? Here’s my walk through the deeper nooks and crannies of dynasty data and my main observations in NFL usage.
You can find my tables for each team in my free weekly database here.
ARI: Joshua Dobbs scores a rushing touchdown
Trey McBride last week was a solid note, but I don’t claim to have seen Zach Ertz landing on IR in advance. Now, true to form, despite claiming a larger role, McBride failed to impress on it with only 11% of total routes, which did result in 20% of the targets, but only 29 receiving yards.
There has been one player I’ve consistently ranked higher than ADP and DLF consensus for the last four months: Kyler Murray in superflex. While we wait to find out if his return to practice equals a return to the field in the coming weeks (and my anxiety about whether he’s still a top-five fantasy QB hits its peak) it’s worth noting I think Joshua Dobbs has done enough, for fantasy to place him on the list of backup players we should always have interest in.
From an NFL perspective… probably not so much. While he hasn’t been bad, the team is now 31st in the league in win percentage, going 1-6 on the season, and hasn’t been within spitting distance of average conversion rate (PACR or rate of air yards converted to receiving yards) this season averaging 0.45, with a peak of 0.59, while the average for the league is 0.76.
Emari Demercado took over the main running back role controlling 80% of the teams’ snaps with 52% of the rushing attempts and 15% of the targets. It’s not flashy but it’s the type of volume to get on your roster especially as the season wears on and injuries pile up.
ATL: The team finds new ways to hit new lows by not updating injury tags accurately
Bijan Robinson didn’t play this week, except for one carry toward the end of the game. What can I say? I think the main takeaway here is this isn’t bad luck or poor results.
If you were hoping the team was underperforming this season in part of some bigger scheme to improve the overall, let that go. There is no plan, there is no greater idea, and there is only a mismanaged team.
If a young rookie is too hurt to play, he shouldn’t be taking one lone run at the end of a game. Don’t let hope gaslight you, there is no explanation for these decisions.
Otherwise, Tyler Allgeier is a borderline top 36 start at the position even when Bijan Robinson plays but there is upside especially inside the top 24 when he’s not (RB25 in Weighted Opportunity on the season). As for when that is or isn’t going to happen, seems like it may be hard to tell from now on.
BAL: Lamar Jackson is one of only five quarterbacks to finish in the top five three or more times this season
Positional scoring is down at both quarterback and tight end. We’ve had a three-year downturn in points per game each week for the top five and top 12 at the quarterback position. However, we’ve also been in an extremely rich era for the quality of players in dynasty with several young players breaking out at a high level early from Jalen Hurts to Justin Herbert. So, despite the drop in positional scoring, because the position itself scores so heavily compared to the rest, the slump hasn’t been felt.
For example, the following players have all had as many games in the top five as Patrick Mahomes: Kirk Cousins, Anthony Richardson, Jared Goff, and Justin Fields.
In the meantime, only five players have finished inside the top five more than twice this season, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, and Tua Tagovailoa. Only Tagovailoa averages less than 20 PPG.
At this point in the season PPG rank is extremely sticky and reliable for the position (close to 80% barring injury). While Baltimore has reverted to league bottom in passing attempts (passing on only 46% of its attempts) Jackson is QB2 in PPG and one of the very few relative difference makers at the position in 2023.
And he still completes passes at an above-average rate, even adjusted for aDot.
CHI: D’Onta Foreman scores three times on 21 touches and gets 89 total yards
It was against Las Vegas, who have allowed top-five points to the running back position this season. But let’s not undercut the job the 27-year-old journeymen did. Without Khalil Herbert or Roschon Johnson, Foreman was able to co-opt 21 touches 42% of the rushing attempts and 17% of the targets. Notably, he had three rushing attempts inside the 20-yard line and two targets compared to Darrynton Evans‘s one rushing attempt in that area of the field.
Evans did have 36% of rushing attempts and 10% of targets, which could suggest it will be more evenly split some weeks before Johnson or Herbert returns. Especially considering Forean’s 40 yards per touchdown in week seven is, obviously, unsustainable.
CLE: The running backs flex their volume while the receivers continue to struggle on theirs
Amari Cooper and Elijah Moore both have significant roles, over 20% of the routes and targets, but remain difficult starts in most leagues and remain flex plays at best right now. The shift from an underperforming Deshaun Watson to PJ Walker has done little to change their results.
Both Kareem Hunt and Jerome Ford finished inside the top 15 last week, Hunt is growing in the offense, but both are in and around 30% of the team’s attempts per week right now.
DEN: Javonte Williams hits his season high in snap share and route share
In week seven Williams had 38% of the team’s overall attempts, 60% of the rushing attempts, and 16% of the targets, finished as the RB20 on the week. The production was the best, but the role has grown to where we can have increased expectations moving forward. I’d start him as a top-24 player at the position.
Jaleel McLaughlin has a high share of the red zone work, which persisted in week seven with two rushing attempts and a single target inside the 20. He has utility as a highly volatile upside play if you need a starter during a bye week.
DET: Jahmyr Gibbs takes over the full role in the absence of David Montgomery
With 76% of the team rushing attempts and 20% of the target, Gibbs finally fulfilled a lot of his fantasy manager’s dreams this week finishing as the RB3 with 27.6 PPR points. 126 yards per touchdown is high but sustainable.
Gibbs continues to be who we thought he was, and the backfield is the easiest to understand in the league.
It didn’t work out for the team as they lost 38-6 and suffered their second loss of the season. Still, the fantasy points were fun.
GB: Aaron Jones returns to 36% of the snaps 27% of the rushing attempts and 15.6% of the targets
Jones’s usage has always been tough to trust in Green Bay but his return, while muted as the RB22, was solid and we could expect more top 12 volume weeks as he gets back to game speed moving forward.
Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs split the target share evenly this week each getting five targets or 15.6%. Watson did lead in route percentage, 20% compared to Doubs 19%, for the first time, however.
While the upside of the team remains muted outside of high touchdown games, notably, Doubs has a significant ability to earn targets on a decent role while Watson is probably the lead upside in fantasy if there is ever again a quarterback on the roster able to take advantage of it. While I think rostering Doubs is strong in dynasty I’m not sure his value ever escalates in a big way reliably whereas there should be some big weeks for Watson in the future which could ignite his hype train once more. I think he’s a play-only building team looking to sell points for this year, whereas Doubs remains a depth add with reliable startable weeks for a more competitive team looking for decent depth.
HOU: Were on a bye, but…
Houston projections are notable this week because they are notably low compared to their hot start this season. Carolina is a tough matchup, rating top 12 against the quarterback position and top 9 against the wide receiver position according to our partners at 4for4.com in Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed (aFPA).
That’s something to consider not just in start-sit decisions but for dynasty while we hope Tank Dell can rebuild his strong start to his rookie campaign after falling outside the top 24 in weeks four and five before the bye week.
IND: Gardner Minshew scores three rushing touchdowns
It is hard to know what to start with this week. Minshew’s three rushing touchdowns? It’s Jonathan Taylor‘s world (50% of rushing attempts, 21 PPR points) and Josh Downs is very good at living in it (6 targets, 125 yards, and a touchdown) or maybe Zack Moss maintained his role from last week (50% of snaps and 45% of rushing attempts).
Strangely, not a lot has changed for us. It’s tough being ahead of the curve on Downs because we already knew, it’s tough having already mentioned that Michael Pittman still leads in route share (24% vs 20% last week) because there is not a lot to say after such a great fantasy day.
JAC: Calvin Ridley has a higher route share, but continues to disappoint
I feel like this is one of my biggest disappointments this year. Ridley once again led in route share at 21.5% versus Christian Kirk‘s 20.5% and also continued to disappoint on that volume (less than -3.0 Expected Points Added per touch for the second straight week).
I think this is a big “L” for me on the seasons but I don’t know why. The volume is there, the team is winning, the quarterback is good, and Ridley has elite talent at the position, it’s just not working in fantasy.
It is working for Kirk, however. He was WR9 last week and is WR22 on the season in PPG.
It’s worth noting the offense snaps were a lot more split last time the team had a healthy Zay Jones, who could be coming back to un-clarify the situation any week now.
KC: Rashee Rice beats expectations and his 14% of routes and 17 PPR points
Rice showed up for us last week as a younger player who exceeded his expected points and added on a per-touch basis. But I thought his volume was notably muted in a similar role we’ve seen on this team before. However, he did manage a slight uptick in underlying routes this week from 10% to 14% and once again outperformed his volume hitting 1.9 EPA/Tch finishing as the WR14 on the week in PPR.
This was a heavy passing week even for the Kansas City Chiefs (42 pass attempts, averaging 38, and 66% pass percentage, averaging 59%). But Rice has been a great second-round add from rookie drafts this off-season and may well have been drafted below that in many leagues.
LAC: Austin Ekeler disappoints in a tough matchup for the position
The volume is still there, and Ekeler 53% of rushing attempts, tho his target share was notably low for his average of 6.7%. However, this looks like a bad result from a tough matchup, Kansas City is a bottom three aFPA matchup according to 4for4.com, and I think he should still be started with confidence moving forward facing Chicago in week eight (30th ranked defense in aFPA) is a good place to start.
Quentin Johnston held 15% of the team’s routes this week, the second time this season he’s been in and around that number. He continues to struggle to convert them into targets, earning a target on only 7% of his routes. Most players do more by now, and his list of players to succeed from this point is short but this does include the development of his teammate, Mike Williams.
LAR: The next Kyren Williams is… no one, but Darrell Henderson is a close second
His RB17 finish in week 17 wasn’t as good as the four weeks Williams finished in the top 12 but it was about the same as the two weeks he finished outside the top 24. He had 58% of the rushing attempts and 7.4% of the targets splitting some of the rushing work with Royce Freeman (38% of attempts). He should be a solid start at the position moving forward and his 34% of opportunities is similar to William’s average.
LV: Josh Jacobs looked like he’d topped out in week seven after he ceded some snap share to Zamir White, Davante Adams‘s second straight disappointing week leads to a route decline much to Jakobi Meyers’ benefit
Meyers has to be the “cheapest’ path to a top 12 wide receiver this season, and I wouldn’t hesitate on a competitive team. Adams has struggled the last two weeks scoring negative EPA/tch, and Tre Tucker has even started to get more involved in the underlining routes (over 12% of the team routes each of the last two weeks).
After running over 80% of the team’s snaps each week in 2023 Josh Jacobs dipped below 70% (66%) and White took 22% but this still resulted in 78% of the attempts going to Jacobs. This was likely just an out-of-control game script in a week that the team passed on a season-high 76% of attempts in a road loss to the Bears.
MIA: Today is a good day to remember who is good, and let the world tilt around you (buy Jaylen Waddle)
Leaving the field for some of the game due to a back injury, Jaylen Waddle managed six catches for 63 yards. He had his season-low route share (12%, his average this season is 19%) and has muted weekly ceilings compared to his first two seasons.
The dynasty tactics of “buy injured” and sending offers on temporarily underperforming players were built for this moment.
NE: I might flex Kendrick Bourne
That’s it, that’s the entire summary of my interest in New England players in dynasty right now.
However, the sixth-round rookie Demario Douglas did get 16% of the teams’ routes and 20% of the team’s targets resulting in six targets, 53 receiving yards, and a positive efficiency week in EPA/Tch to land him on my “young and maybe interesting” list. Don’t leave him on the waiver wire if you can find a roster spot.
NYG: Jalin Hyatt, but Wan’Dale Robinson… but really it’s still just Saquon Barkley
After impressing last week Robinson dropped in route share (down to 14% this week) but still returned positive expectations with an efficient performance of his touches. It’s worth noting the rookie, Hyatt, had a solid route share for the second straight week (19% last week and 16% this week) but neither feels like an upside candidate. However, having said that Daniel Jones hasn’t played since week five and is averaging 100 extra yards per touchdown average on the season (so he should be due touchdowns if he can get healthy and back on the field).
Honestly, it’s still just Barkley in dynasty, and it’s nice to see Darren Waller hit 22 PPR points and a 29% target share but I’m not sure the off-season hopes can be said to pay off this far into the season.
PHI: Jalen Hurts isn’t the dynasty QB1, but could be based on momentum and pizzazz
Also, D’Andre Swift hit his season high in snap share but ceded red zone touches to Kenneth Gainwell (21% of all touches inside the 20, all of them rushing attempts).
PIT: Najee Harris Scores a touchdown
And a victory for volume which still counts for something, even in Pittsburgh. It coincides with his season-high targets hare (13%, three targets). Jaylen Warren still split some of the high-value caries in the red zone (30% of them versus Harris’ 50%) but still has a 30% share of the rushing attempts. But the rumors of a takeover have been strongly exaggerated.
SEA: Jaxon Smith-Njigba improves just in time (seven targets, 63 receiving yards, and a score)
Last week we were genuinely concerned that Smith-Njigba had missed his shot by week four, but rookies are all unique, and we liked him well enough pre-draft we tried to keep hope.
In week seven, JSN didn’t earn more volume, to be clear, because his route share has happened before this season. Instead, he played better on those chances and was able to hit a positive (4.1 EPA/opp) efficiency and create much rosier expectations moving forward.
One note might be that the loss of DK Metcalf, (while it didn’t increase his route share or target share!), did force JSN out of the slot. His slot rate dropped from 86% in week four to 45% in week seven with DK out (who typically averages a sub-20% slot rate).
I’m a lot less concerned about JSN now. I want to see more efficiency, and decent volume (around a 17% route share) even when Metcalf gets back. But I think we’re good.
WAS: Sam Howell struggles
Sack tendencies aside (and whether they can or can’t be improved) Howell has struggled the last two weeks putting up his lowest PACR (69% and 68% in weeks six and seven respectively) and completion percentages (60% and 59% respectively.)
I’m always over-invested and willing to root for lower-drafted players (especially with above-average college profiles) but the NFL is a show-me league and without the performances, it’ll be hard to argue he has long-term potential in dynasty with a new crop of above-average college passing profiles arriving every year.
The team now has a losing record, 3-4, in 2023.
Of course, that doesn’t rule out his viability more immediately, his week eight matchup is more positive against the position in fantasy. He’s also ranked 15th in PPG so far in 2023 and has as many top 12 weeks as Trevor Lawrence and Russell Wilson.
Well, that’s about all I have for you right now. But let me know what you think and feel free to look through my data to make your observations.
Until next week, good luck, and have fun.
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