Dynasty Target and Regression Trends: Week Seven

Welcome! In this series, I try and be short, sharp, and to the point while offering some underrated trends in volume and regression.

So, let’s get to it, shall we? Here’s my walk through the deeper nooks and crannies of dynasty data and my main observations in NFL usage.

You can find my tables for each team in my free weekly database here.

ARI: Joshua Dobbs scores a rushing touchdown

Trey McBride last week was a solid note, but I don’t claim to have seen Zach Ertz landing on IR in advance. Now, true to form, despite claiming a larger role, McBride failed to impress on it with only 11% of total routes, which did result in 20% of the targets, but only 29 receiving yards.

There has been one player I’ve consistently ranked higher than ADP and DLF consensus for the last four months: Kyler Murray in superflex. While we wait to find out if his return to practice equals a return to the field in the coming weeks (and my anxiety about whether he’s still a top-five fantasy QB hits its peak) it’s worth noting I think Joshua Dobbs has done enough, for fantasy to place him on the list of backup players we should always have interest in.

From an NFL perspective… probably not so much. While he hasn’t been bad, the team is now 31st in the league in win percentage, going 1-6 on the season, and hasn’t been within spitting distance of average conversion rate (PACR or rate of air yards converted to receiving yards) this season averaging 0.45, with a peak of 0.59, while the average for the league is 0.76.

Emari Demercado took over the main running back role controlling 80% of the teams’ snaps with 52% of the rushing attempts and 15% of the targets. It’s not flashy but it’s the type of volume to get on your roster especially as the season wears on and injuries pile up.

ATL: The team finds new ways to hit new lows by not updating injury tags accurately

Bijan Robinson didn’t play this week, except for one carry toward the end of the game. What can I say? I think the main takeaway here is this isn’t bad luck or poor results.

If you were hoping the team was underperforming this season in part of some bigger scheme to improve the overall, let that go. There is no plan, there is no greater idea, and there is only a mismanaged team.

If a young rookie is too hurt to play, he shouldn’t be taking one lone run at the end of a game. Don’t let hope gaslight you, there is no explanation for these decisions.

Otherwise, Tyler Allgeier is a borderline top 36 start at the position even when Bijan Robinson plays but there is upside especially inside the top 24 when he’s not (RB25 in Weighted Opportunity on the season). As for when that is or isn’t going to happen, seems like it may be hard to tell from now on.

BAL: Lamar Jackson is one of only five quarterbacks to finish in the top five three or more times this season