Dynasty Breakouts and Busts at the Halfway Point
One of my least favorite things about the NFL is the addition of a 17th game. When we had 16 games, weeks four, eight, and 12 were nice, clean breaking points for the season. Now you have to take your best guess as to when is the actual halfway point. But I digress, the NFL now has 17 games over 18 weeks, and there’s nothing I can do about it. After week four, I looked at the players I thought were the breakouts and busts up to that point, and now after week nine, when most teams have played eight games, I’m revisiting the breakouts and busts at the new halfway point.
I’m comparing players’ DLF Dynasty ADP from before the season with their current ranking in points scored. I’ll be omitting injury-related underperformers since missing half of your games obviously impacts your points-scored rankings. In rare cases, I may reference someone’s points per game ranking if they need to be included. With all that out of the way, let’s see who is over- and underperforming to this point in the season and if they have staying power or an opportunity to bounce back as we prepare for the push into the fantasy playoffs.
Quarterback
Breakouts
Marcus Mariota, QB ATL (difference between ADP and current positional rank:+23)
Largely on the back of 304 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns, Mariota is QB11 on the year following his ADP of QB34 back in September. The Falcons currently have the fourth-fewest passing yards in the NFL and the third-fewest attempts, so the volume isn’t there for Mariota to sustain his current ranking. But if he keeps it up with his legs, he can remain in QB2 territory going forward.
Kirk Cousins, QB MIN (+8)
Cousins stinks in prime time, but aside from that, he’s probably the most underrated quarterback in the NFL and fantasy. Over the last seven seasons Cousins has been a starter, he has finished, on average, as QB10, with only one season outside of the top 13. He’s as steady and reliable as they come, and here we are again. He was drafted as QB18, and that was likely him getting drafted at his floor. We need to stop being so surprised when he performs well each season.
Honorable Mentions:
Daniel Jones, QB NYG (+13), Tua Tagovailoa, QB MIA (+4)
Busts
Russell Wilson, QB DEN (-11)
Has there been a more significant disappointment this year than the Broncos’ offense and, to a lesser extent, Wilson? He is on pace for 3,872 yards and only 13 touchdowns and nine interceptions. He has never thrown for less than 20 touchdowns in a season and has only thrown more than nine interceptions four times over his previous ten seasons. There sure seem to be problems at every level of this offense, and I cannot imagine this team – or Wilson – suddenly turning this around over the next nine games.
Mac Jones, QB NE (-9)
Yes, Jones has missed a few games. However, I’m including him here because he has surprisingly been worse per game than he has been overall. After being drafted as a QB2 as the 21st QB off the board, owners weren’t expecting too much from the sophomore signal-caller, and he has still managed to disappoint. Currently QB30, on a per-game basis, Jones is actually QB35. Considering there are 32 NFL teams, that’s bad-bad. Additionally, Jones has arguably been outplayed by fourth-round pick Bailey Zappe and might even lose the starting job to him before the 2023 season begins.
Dishonorable Mention:
Aaron Rodgers, QB GB (-4)
Running Back
Breakouts
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB NE (+17)
Up is down, down is up, black is white, white is black, and you can trust a Patriots’ running back. In what was a notorious no-go zone for fantasy football, suddenly a Patriots running back is a reliable, week-in and week-out, plug-and-play starter at running back. Stevenson has been great, with over 600 yards on the ground and over 200 in the air, to go along with five scores, leading him to an RB8 finish through week nine.
Khalil Herbert, RB CHI (+28)
I’m in a small group of fantasy pundits who have always thought Herbert was the better option over David Montgomery. Herbert is averaging .96 fantasy points per touch, while Montgomery is averaging .65 points per touch. When you can roster a backup, and he ends up being a reliable RB2 option each week, you’ve gotta be happy with that after he was the 49th running back taken in most drafts.
Antonio Gibson, RB, WAS (+9)
“Reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated” – Mark Twain
The Commanders brought back JD McKissic. They drafted Brian Robinson. They repeatedly dragged Antonio Gibson’s name through the mud all off-season. And like a phoenix rising from the ashes, despite every obstacle in his way, he is RB19 on the season and is on the fringe of being on pace for yet another ten-touchdown campaign.
Honorable Mentions:
Leonard Fournette, RB TB (+11), Tony Pollard, RB DAL (+11)
Busts
Najee Harris, RB PIT (-23)
I’m not sure what happened here. Rumors keep swirling that undrafted rookie Jaylen Warren could command more touches going forward, but I’m not sure we’ll see that happen. This is the worst Steelers team in two decades – maybe more. As a result, everyone is suffering. Harris has yet to eclipse 100 yards from scrimmage in a single game after doing it nine times and finishing as the RB3 a year ago as a rookie. I’m not waving the white flag yet, I want to see what the team looks like after their bye, but it’s looking like a lost season in the steel city.
AJ Dillon, RB GB (-18)
When you looked at the Packers’ offensive skill position players before the season, you had to think: “in order to succeed, the Pack is going to have to lean heavily on Dillon and Aaron Jones.” And you were probably right. Unfortunately for them, they’re not leaning on their running backs, and they stink. Dillon only has 98 carries and 16 receptions and has only gotten into the end zone once all year. Barring an unforeseen change in offensive strategy over the second half of the season, Dillon is a fringe bench player in redraft, and his dynasty stock will likely take a hit too.
Dishonorable Mentions:
Chase Edmonds, RB MIA/DEN (-18), Jonathan Taylor, RB IND (-24)
Wide Receiver
Breakouts
Tyler Lockett, WR SEA (+47)
I, like everyone else, thought the Seahawks were going to be one of the league’s worst teams in 2022. I also wrongly assumed that this offense could only support one receiver; in that case, DK Metcalf would emerge as the big winner. Thanks to the gift of hindsight, looking back at the four games Geno Smith played last year, we should’ve seen this coming. Lockett had 21 receptions on 33 targets for 246 yards in Smith’s four games compared to Metcalf’s 19 catches on 23 targets. Lockett has rewarded owners with the WR8 season so far, and there’s no reason to think that won’t continue for the remainder of 2022.
Allen Lazard, WR GB (+21)
This was probably pretty predictable. Aaron Rodgers trusts Lazard, and with the trade of Davante Adams, the cupboard was bare in Green Bay. Somebody has to catch the ball in Green Bay. He’s not lighting the world on fire at WR27, but he has missed two games and is bringing fantasy GMs a nice return on investment after being the 48th wide receiver taken in drafts.
Jakobi Meyers, WR NE (+29)
Through seven games, Meyers is on pace for a 97-1,109-7 stat line over a 17-game season. That would be good for 256 points, enough to have been WR12 last year. Currently WR28 this year after a bizarrely low ADP of WR57, Meyers seems poised to take the next step for fantasy despite the Patriots’ passing game woes.
Honorable Mention:
Amari Cooper, WR CLE (+29), Brandon Aiyuk, WR SF (+14)
Busts
Allen Robinson II, WR LAR (-27)
Robinson is cooked. After two good seasons (and two bad seasons) in Jacksonville and two good seasons (and two bad seasons) in Chicago, many thought his relocation to Los Angeles with Matthew Stafford would return him to fantasy glory. Nope. Even being drafted as a low-end WR3, as the 33rd receiver off the board, Robinson has been a disappointment. Currently, WR60 on the season; I can’t even imagine a path to fantasy relevancy for him.
Darnell Mooney, WR CHI (-30)
One of my personal preseason darlings, Mooney has been a bust thus far in 2022. The Bears’ offense as a whole has been a letdown, although things have been looking up over the last few weeks. Regardless of any positive trends in this offense, the team acquired Chase Claypool at the trade deadline, arguably bumping Mooney to the WR2 role for the Bears. Could it be a positive, where Mooney will see more favorable matchups? It’s possible, but nothing indicates the Justin Fields-led offense can support multiple receivers for fantasy.
Dishonorable Mentions:
Courtland Sutton, WR DEN (-15), Jerry Jeudy, WR DEN (-6)
Tight End
Breakouts
Hayden Hurst, TE CIN (+15)
Through nine weeks last year, CJ Uzomah was a top-10 tight end. Exit Uzomah, enter Hurst, and we have similar results. Uzomah ended the year as TE18, but he had target hog, Ja’Marr Chase, in the picture. With injuries to Chase this year, Hurst will have to be relied upon more by Joe Burrow and the Bengals. He should be a TE1 to close out the season.
Gerald Everett, TE LAC (+11)
Everett has always been on the radar but never officially popped. Whether he’s been unlocked by playing with Justin Herbert or if the mounting injuries to the Chargers’ receivers have left him as the only man standing, he’s currently TE10, and there is no indication he won’t remain in the top-12 the rest of the way.
Robert Tonyan, TE GB (+13)
I have checked, double-checked, and triple-checked this, and it would appear that Robert Tonyan is, in fact, TE11 on the season. I guess this just goes to show you that the tight end landscape is a dumpster fire. He has a single touchdown, only two games with more than five receptions, and a single game with more than 37 yards. And somehow, that’s enough to be a TE1 in 2022.
Honorable Mention:
Zach Ertz, TE AZ (+9), Tyler Higbee, TE LAR (+10)
Busts
Kyle Pitts, TE ATL (-17)
When you look at the receiving corps in Atlanta, there isn’t a good reason why Pitts isn’t being force-fed targets at a historic pace. Instead, many fantasy owners’ top tight end is now a low-end TE2. Pitts still retains tremendous dynasty value, but it’s probably best to leave him on your bench for the rest of the season, and he’s droppable in redraft leagues.
Austin Hooper, TE TEN (-10)
Expectations were low coming into the season, as Hooper was the 33rd tight end off the board in drafts. However, he seemed like an ideal late-round tight end sleeper candidate. Tennessee is/was devoid of receiving talent, and the Titans have had a history of decent tight end production for several years. Currently sitting as the TE43 in points scored, he’s not even usable in two tight ends leagues. Not good.
Dishonorable Mentions:
Dawson Knox, TE BUF (-14), Hunter Henry, TE NE (-7)
It’s interesting to see who emerges and who falls on their face each year. It’s also fun to see who moves up and down in the rankings in these small four and five-week windows. Are any of the above breakouts going to maintain their early season performances and carry you into the fantasy playoffs, or will they regress to our preseason projections? Will we have some positive regression from our early season busts as their redemption story will be told as we wrap up the year, or are we looking at a lost year for several fantasy stalwarts? Only time will tell, and I’ll be back here as we head into the fantasy playoffs!
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