2025 Off-Season Mock Drafts: 1QB Startup Comparison
I recently participated in a 12-team, 1QB mock draft. Once we had the results, I wrote my first Off-Season Mock Draft article of the year looking at the results. The very early mocks can be wildly different, as MFL doesn’t have any ADP yet, and that is what we are building with these mocks. So, sometimes, certain players fall through the cracks a bit from time to time. I was able to jump into a second January mock draft and wanted to see if we had any significant differences between the two drafts. Often, these wild variances are mistakes; other times, it’s just a function of different groups of owners drafting together, and some players are viewed as more or less valuable in some circles than others. Let’s see what I found.
Rounds One and Two
The first mock saw five running backs selected in the first two rounds. Bijan Robinson (1.06), Jahmyr Gibbs (1.09), Breece Hall (2.03), De’Von Achane (2.07), and Saquon Barkley (2.11). In the second mock, there were six taken: Robinson (1.09), Gibbs (1.11), Jonathan Taylor (2.01), Achane (2.04), Hall (2.11), and Barkley (2.12). More or less, it was the same, with the exception of Taylor nearly squeezing into the first round of the second draft.
Both drafts saw Brock Bowers and Trey McBride go in the top 21, with Bowers selected 1.10 and 2.01 and McBride going 2.02 and 2.09. They are the clear top two at the position, and it is by a pretty wide margin.
Rounds Three and Four
The only tight end in this 24-pick block was Sam LaPorta, although he went 31st and 46th, so the range is significant. We also saw our first quarterbacks come off the board too. I typically don’t like to go QB this early in single QB leagues, but I can simultaneously understand the strategy to do so, too. Getting Jayden Daniels at 4.04 in a start-up and not needing to address the position again until the 2040 season definitely has some benefits.
We saw some variance in player value in this range. Xavier Worthy went 3.09 in the second draft but fell to 5.03 in the first draft. Najee Harris was the significant outlier among running backs, who was pick 39 in draft two but 87th in draft one. Going the opposite direction, Cortland Sutton was pick 44 in the first draft, but 63 in draft two. Those few swings aside, through four rounds, I’m shocked at how similar these drafts started. So often, these earlier mocks without ADP can go wildly off the rails, but this shows how dialed in the dynasty community already is.
Rounds Five and Six
I guess I’ll start at the bottom and work my way up, but pick 6.12 in the second draft was Alvin Kamara, who didn’t go until 8.11 in the first draft, but I’m coming around on Kamara as this off-season progresses. He missed weeks one through three and week 18, but in the week four-17 stretch he played, he was PPR RB3. He still has the talent to be a top-three back, with Jake Haener and Spencer Rattler under center for a significant chunk of the season. I know he’s 29, but we’re seeing a bit of a resurgence of late-20s running backs right now. 6.12 is crazy, 8.11 is insane. On the other hand, maybe draft two was much more open to older backs, as Austin Ekeler went 64th overall, but was 139th in mock one. These are the wild picks I was looking for earlier in the draft that didn’t come.
Rounds Seven and Eight
We saw the groundhog of madness poke its head out a bit in rounds five and six. Did that continue into rounds seven and eight? Evan Engram was 78th in the first draft and 120th in the second. CJ Stroud was 79th in the first draft and 106th in the second. Darnell Mooney was 81st in the first mock and 148th in the second.
We discussed the older running backs getting bumped up in draft two, but it wasn’t an across-the-board running back bump, as Travis Etienne fell to 122 in draft two but was 85th in draft one- both of which are probably too early for me after what I saw from him in 2024. Adonai Mitchell was right behind Etienne in draft one at 86th overall, but fell even further in draft two, landing at 139. His ADP should be plummeting, so if you liked him a year ago, you might be able to acquire him on the cheap this off-season. Continuing the giant drop-off trend, we saw Jakobi Meyers go 35 picks later in draft two, Devaughn Vele nearly 100 spots later, and Zach Charbonnet almost two full rounds later. These picks are what I’ve become accustomed to in the early mocks. If you happen to be drafting already, be prepared to pull the trigger on “your guys” because you never know where they end up getting selected.
Rounds Nine and Ten
The first name that jumped off the page at me was Diontae Johnson at 9.03. After his terrible finish in 2024, who knows what will happen with him in 2025? I have an obscene amount of exposure, so I’m overly hopeful, but even I wouldn’t touch him this early. The second draft drafters felt the same, with Johnson staying on the board until 15.05.
A player I noticed being overdrafted in real time was Jordan Whittington at 105. He lasted until 169 in the second mock, and although the Rams are allegedly moving on from Cooper Kupp, are we assuming that Whittington is handed the job? No thanks. DeAndre Hopkins went nearly 40 picks later in the second mock, Tyjae Spears went 20 spots later, Justice Hill went 30-something spots later, and Stefon Diggs fell 18 spots. On the other hand, another veteran running back, D’Andre Swift, went 37 spots earlier in the second mock. At least we’re seeing a bit of a theme developing.
Rounds 11 and 12
In this range, we are starting to see the names of players in draft two who we mentioned above and were overdrafted in draft one several rounds ago. We’ll need more data to see which draft was “wrong” in hindsight, but this is why we do the mocks, right?
We are starting to see some sleeper values emerge here, now that most of a team’s starting roster is filled out. There are almost too many names to list here, but Romeo Doubs, Jauan Jennings, Baker Mayfield, Blake Corum, Jonnu Smith, Dallas Goedert, Jalen Coker, and Jaylen Wright stand out in draft one. In draft two, many of those same names are in this range, but we also saw Wan’Dale Robinson, David Njoku, Cedric Tillman, and Brock Purdy, too. If you “hit” on both picks in this range and another two or three in the final eight rounds, you can assemble a strong roster for 2025 and beyond. This is the range where drafts (and championships) are won.
Rounds 13 and 14
Although we are still in sleeper territory here, I think a quick scan of the names quickly reveals that there is a significant talent and risk versus reward difference between what we were looking at in rounds 11 and 12 compared to this group in 13 and 14. We are officially in the realm of bench depth and bye-week fill-ins, and it shows. Aside from JJ McCarthy, Michael Wilson, and Theo Johnson, I don’t know if anyone excites me in this range. There are multiple serviceable JAGS floating around, but I can’t imagine a world where anyone ever says, “What a steal, Jaleel McLaughlin fell to me in the 14th!”
Rounds 15, 16, and 17
The question I usually ask myself when I’m on the clock in these late rounds is, “In a perfect storm scenario, can any of these players win me a positional matchup? Can they win me a week? Can they put up top-12 numbers over a small stretch in-season?” I often imagine a hypothetical fantasyland where I can answer those questions in the affirmative, but not this year. I had a rough go looking through these names (excluding quarterbacks). The talent and opportunity drop-off is like looking down the face of the Hoover Dam. These guys stink, and many of them aren’t even going to show up in the ADP anymore once we add in the 60ish incoming rookies.
Rounds 18, 19, and 20
I find the round 18-20 group more appealing than the round 14-17 group. Gabe Davil, Andrei Iosivas, and Zach Ertz – coming off of a TE7 season – kick off round 18 with a bang in draft one. As we keep going, Jalen Tolbert, Antonio Gibson, and Tyler Higbee would all probably get into your lineups at some point. In the second draft, many of those same names, in addition to Jalin Hyatt, Tyler Conklin, Elijah Moore, and Elijah Mitchell, all offer a little intrigue this late in the draft.
Final Roster Comparison
I am not happy with either of these teams. I like the first teams’ young receiver corps and think the tight ends are fine, but those clearly came at the expense of the rest of my roster, particularly running backs. Mixon and Pacheco should be a decent enough 1-2 punch to start the season, but I’m probably searching waivers for someone to start in the fantasy playoffs.
The second team is probably a little better, but it is definitely older and locked into a win-now season, whether I like it or not. I already want to start trading players away- and it’s a fake team from a mock draft. Gross. As I often say in these articles, this is why we do the mocks. The more often and the earlier you do them, the more you’ll be prepared when the real leagues get started. I definitely know what I’m going to avoid doing moving forward, and that is fading the elite running backs early. Good luck this off-season!
- Off-Season Mock Drafts: Where the Rookies Fit in Ahead of the 2025 NFL Draft - March 22, 2025
- Off-Season Mock Drafts: Month-to-Month Changes - March 15, 2025
- Off-Season Mock Drafts: Have We Learned Anything? - March 9, 2025
