Inside The Dynasty War Room: DLF Reacts to Day One of the 2024 NFL Draft
Undoubtedly the pinnacle of the dynasty off-season, the final pieces of the rookie jigsaw are falling into place. With the 2024 NFL Draft in progress we are close to the culmination of many months of rookie scouting and the final two key data points – draft capital and landing spot.
At DLF, this is an extremely busy and crucial period: rookie prospect videos are complete, rookie and dynasty rankings are adjusted with the final data points established and the finishing touches are being added to the highly-anticipated 2024 Dynasty Draft Guide. For many, this is the most exciting part of the dynasty calendar, with rookie drafts imminent in the upcoming days and weeks before we hit dynasty startup season.
Day one of the 2024 NFL Draft was fantastic, with plenty of storylines to work through in your rookie scouting process. Now the first round draft capital and landing spots are confirmed, I’ve recruited some of DLF’s most talented writers to lead you through our ‘Inside The Dynasty War Room’ series over the next few days, where we’ll provide key reactions and thoughts to set you up for success in your rookie drafts.
1) With the shock selection of Michael Penix to the Falcons at pick 8, where would you be taking him in rookie drafts?
I’m probably not touching Penix at all because there is no path to him starting for at least two-three, maybe even four years. If you want to look at Jordan Love as an example for dynasty value, he lost value from his initial draft day value and didn’t actually start gaining value until this time last year – three years AFTER he was drafted. I can’t touch Penix until round three in superflex rookie drafts because it just doesn’t make sense to waste a roster spot on essentially a dead asset for years. (Addison Hayes)
The Falcons signed Kirk Cousins to a four-year $180 million contract and also drafted a 23-year-old Penix in the same off-season. It makes almost zero sense. I’d imagine he goes at the 1.11 or 1.12 in superflex rookie drafts but I will not be involved in that. (Andrew Francesconi)
Not even Penix would have believed you if you called this pick. Drafted to sit and learn from Cousins? It’s baffling. I’d assume you’ll need to give up somewhere between 1.10 and 1.12 in Superflex. I stress the “you” part, because I won’t be taking him there. (Eric Flynn)
I’m in utter shock. I can’t believe the Falcons refused to trade a late-round pick for former Bears quarterback Justin Fields, but instead drafted Penix at number eight? Pretty wild to me. Penix is probably a late first-round pick in dynasty superflex drafts. (Justin Taylor)
Drafted earlier than expected in round one, to potentially sit for multiple seasons, this is a similar situation to Jordan Love in 2020. Penix makes sense as a luxury pick to retain value as a guaranteed starter in time, however he is more appealing for dynasty rebuilds. With Bo Nix climbing draft boards, I’m more confident in taking Penix in early round two of rookie drafts, with the caveat of a deeper bench. (Kev White)
With Cousins sitting ahead of Penix for up to four years, he has to be the sixth-ranked quarterback, at best, in rookie drafts. I wouldn’t be surprised if Penix starts to compete for the starting job as early as 2025, but the financial investment in Cousins will give him an extremely long leash. In superflex, he’s outside of the first round for me and I’ll be considering some day two wide receivers and running backs ahead of him. (Tim Riordan)
2) Which rookie drafted in round one had the biggest increase in dynasty value?
I think it has to be Ricky Pearsall. He was the WR12 and valued as the 3.01 going into the night and now he might sneak into the end of the first round of rookie drafts but will most likely find himself at the beginning of the second round. Bo Nix is the other big riser after being selected 12th overall by the Broncos where he should have every opportunity to start in week one. (Andrew)
Being the new offensive toy at Patrick Mahomes‘ disposal will mean a big uptick in how highly drafted Xavier Worthy will be. Speed kills, and so does being tied to an elite QB and offense….. Wait! Ricky Pearsall says hold my beer! (Eric)
With six quarterbacks going in the top 12 picks, this really helps former Michigan quarterback JJ McCarthy, former Washington quarterback Michael Penix, and former Oregon quarterback Bo Nix. All these players are now possible first-round picks in superflex leagues. Beyond the QBs, Brian Thomas Jr going to the Jacksonville Jaguars as WR4 makes him a first-round pick. (Justin)
Quarterback is king in superflex leagues, and for this reason my selection is Bo Nix. After the excellent round one draft capital, his dynasty value has catapulted into the mid to late round one of rookie drafts. I think he has a genuine shot to be taken as early as the 1.07, as the rookie QB5. (Kev)
Ricky Pearsall was one of my favorite wide receivers in the pre-draft process, and seeing him go in the first round should push him way up the wide receiver draft board. For now, San Francisco isn’t a great landing spot for a player like this, but trade rumors have been swirling around Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel. Kyle Shanahan will be able to get a ton of juice out of this pick. (Tim)
As much as I would love to talk about Xavier Legette getting first-round draft capital, the answer here has to be Ricky Pearsall, who is just a tremendous fit for the Niners offense, he literally screams being a Shanahan guy based on his Florida tape and getting first-round draft capital absolutely raises his value from an NFL and dynasty standpoint. And not to mention, it now seems even more likely that the Niners trade away either Deebo Samuel or Brandon Aiyuk for more draft capital this weekend, so with one of them gone, that opens up the door for Pearsall to see 100+ targets in this offense and just be an absolute weapon in this system. (Addison)
3) Which rookie drafted in round one had the biggest decrease in dynasty value?
I think that the draft pretty much confirmed the values we had placed on the incoming rookie prospects. If I had to pick someone at a push, you could argue that Malik Nabers landing with the New York Giants isn’t exactly how you’d draw it up on your wishlist. But, we’ll see if his obvious talent can overcome the landing spot. (Eric)
I don’t think being picked in the first round hurts your value at all, but the landing spot in Carolina for Xavier Legette isn’t ideal. I would have liked to see him land somewhere else, but he should get an opportunity to see a good amount of targets as the team’s number two receiver. (Justin)
Many of the players selected in round one saw an increase or retained value, however I’ve chosen Drake Maye as a minor decrease in dynasty value. Whilst the top three draft capital is excellent, the short-term landing spot in New England is tricky. The macro-market genuinely needs to consider McCarthy in at least the same tier in rookie drafts. (Kev)
I don’t believe any of the players drafted in the first round saw their dynasty value decrease on Thursday night. The landing spot for Xavier Legette wasn’t ideal, but seeing him sneak into the first-round should help his value as well. I’m not out on Bryce Young just yet, so perhaps Legette will turn this situation into a good landing spot. (Tim)
I’m going to cheat and give you the name of a player who lost value BECAUSE they weren’t drafted in round one, and that’s Adonai Mitchell. Now, this could all be completely fixed by him being drafted by the Bills at 33 overall on Friday night, but my confidence in Mitchell has dropped with him not being a first-round pick. I was already skeptical of the profile, and since he fell out of round one, that investment is now even less of an investment to where it makes it easier to cut bait if he is NOT the guy people think he could become, which scares me even more. (Addison)
It’s hard to say any player drafted tonight lost value because the ones we expected to be selected went about where we anticipated and the WRs who snuck into the back end of the first round will only rise. I’m going to echo Eric and say that if you made me choose one, I’d have to say Malik Nabers because we were hoping for the Justin Herbert connection in LA and instead ended up with Daniel Jones in NY. Even then, that landing spot is not enough to drop Nabers. (Andrew)
While Nabers was trending towards pick four in rookie drafts, it is likely the decision between him and Jayden Daniels is easier with their respective landing spots (Credit: DLF SF Rookie ADP April 2024)
4) Which veteran player had the biggest increase in dynasty value on day one of the draft?
Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence should see a bump in value after the team acquired Gabe Davis in free agency and added Brian Thomas Jr in the first round of the draft. The AFC South is getting really competitive and the Jags need to keep adding offensive weapons around Lawrence. (Justin)
It was an expected selection of Marvin Harrison Jr by the Cardinals, however this is tremendous for the dynasty value of Kyler Murray. Harrison Jr gives him a legitimate threat on the outside to pair with exciting tight end Trey McBride. While he is generally considered a low-end QB2, the addition of an often labeled ‘generational talent’ in Harrison Jr puts him in the conversation to be ahead of the likes of Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow in dynasty value. (Kev)
The first round ended up going very well for Daniel Jones. The Giants were reportedly trying to trade up for a quarterback to compete with Jones for starting snaps. A trade never materialized, solidifying his starting role for at least one more season, and the Giants’ consolation prize was a dynamic weapon for Jones to throw to this season. (Tim)
This is Trevor Lawrence to me. Brian Thomas is a really perfect pairing in terms of replacing Calvin Ridley as an X-receiver in that offense, and an X-receiver who can operate as a deep threat with elite long-speed that defenses can’t just hone in on because of all the other weapons on the offense. This is huge for both Thomas and Lawrence and the entire Jaguars offense to where we might finally get a consistent and borderline elite fantasy season from Lawrence in 2024, something that we’ve been eagerly waiting for since his mini-breakout in 2022. (Addison)
Kyler Murray and Daniel Jones are the two obvious choices here, and my colleagues have covered them adequately, but I’m going to be a little more unique with my selection: Garrett Wilson. The Jets were very commonly mocked to select Brock Bowers, Rome Odunze, or offensive tackle during the pre-draft process. Instead of picking one of the pass catchers, the Jets went with a lineman to help keep Aaron Rodgers upright for the 2024 season. With only one pick on day two, it might be difficult for them to add a receiver and if not, Wilson could lead the league in targets next season if Rodgers stays healthy. (Andrew)
It may have been expected to see Marvin Harrison Jr holding up the Arizona Cardinals jersey, and you should have been ahead of the game in adding shares of Kyler Murray to your dynasty portfolio. The addition of such an elite pass-catching option can only inflate the production numbers of the dynamic quarterback and his value will likely rise and rise as the season approaches. (Eric)
5) Which veteran player had the biggest decrease in dynasty value on day one of the draft?
Michael Mayer is the selection for me. Brock Bowers is considered an outstanding talent entering the league and the round-one draft capital will result in excellent usage as a rookie. The current coaching staff has no immediate ties to Mayer, who figures to be at best the fourth option in a Gardner Minshew offense, no thank you. (Kev)
The Panthers saw the need to trade up into the first round to get a weapon for Bryce Young in Xavier Legette. A year after he was a second-round pick, Jonathan Mingo has been pushed down to fifth on the Panthers depth chart. He didn’t have much value to start the night, but with the arrival of Legette and the trade for Diontae Johnson, it’s tough to see Mingo getting many opportunities in 2024. (Tim)
This is an obvious one to me, it’s Justin Herbert. The one glimmer of hope for Herbert through last night was the chance that they take either Marvin Harrison or Malik Nabers at fifth overall, but unfortunately they passed over Nabers and drafted Joe Alt, which don’t get me wrong, that’s a fantastic pick, but it’s yet another sign that the team is looking to be a run-first team under Harbaugh. I’m not even sure if Herbert is a top-ten dynasty QB. (Addison)
The obvious answer is Mayer after the Raiders selected Brock Bowers with the 13th overall pick. Maybe Las Vegas is looking to run more ‘12’ personnel but I’m not sure Minshew/Aidan O’Connell can support that many pass catchers. I’ll mention another name my colleagues haven’t yet: Gabe Davis. Davis was looking for a fresh start in Jacksonville and they just drafted a younger, better version of him with Brian Thomas Jr. (Andrew)
There’ll be obvious question marks over what exactly the situation in Atlanta is, and where that leaves Kirk Cousins. Outside of that, the Jacksonville Jaguars selection of Brian Thomas will probably see a decent dent in Christian Kirk‘s dynasty value. Oh, and Mayer will plummet. (Eric)
You have to wonder about Kirk Cousins at this point. Are the Falcons sold on his rehab after picking a QB in the top ten? I don’t think they are. (Justin)
6) Who is the rookie QB2 in dynasty rookie drafts after round one?
Drake Maye is likely going to need some development time on the bench in New England, but I truly believe he is a better quarterback than Jayden Daniels, so he is still my QB2. The hype has been so loud around Daniels, but there are some flaws in his tape that I think are being ignored. Maye will likely be the third QB in ADP, so you may want to try to trade back in your rookie drafts. (Tim)
Nothing changed here for me: I went into the draft with Jayden Daniels as my QB2 and I’m leaving the draft with Jayden Daniels as my QB2. The Commanders’ landing spot is fantastic for him and his skillset in a Kliff Kingsbury offense. The last time Kingsbury got a rushing QB early in the draft was Kyler Murray, who proceeded to have three top-ten fantasy seasons in a row, including a QB2 overall season in his second year. The upside is just too high with the type of QB that Daniels is to not have him as the QB2 in the class and the solidified 1.03 in superflex leagues. (Addison)
I think it’s still Daniels after the top of the draft holds pretty close to form with Daniels going two and Maye going three. If he is able to replicate even half of his rushing production from LSU he’ll be a fantasy monster. It helps that Maye will probably sit a bit in his first year as he and the offense mature throughout the season. (Andrew)
Daniels was QB2 pre-draft and nothing has changed to move any of the other rookie quarterback options ahead of him. He’ll need to use all his athletic ability to keep himself upright in Washington, and if he does, he could produce explosive numbers on the ground as well as through the air. (Eric)
I like Maye, but the New England landing spot isn’t ideal. Daniels going to the Washington Commanders firmly places him in the QB2 position. He has a better team with better weapons. (Justin)
Daniels was my clear QB2 choice pre-draft and this is further solidified now landing spots have been confirmed. I think most Maye fans will keep him in the same tier as Daniels, however he was in the tier below for me already. I’m really interested to see if Washington adds further weapons for Daniels with two early selections in round two of the draft. (Kev)
Daniels has been trending above Maye in startup ADP, with the draft going as expected this will solidify within the dynasty market (Credit: DLF ADP Over Time App)
7) Who is the rookie WR4 in dynasty rookie drafts after round one?
Brian Thomas Jr landing in Jacksonville was a fantastic landing spot for everyone involved. He’ll have an opportunity to be the WR1 on the team catching passes from Trevor Lawrence, who we know is a great deep-ball thrower, which fits Thomas’s play style perfectly as a boundary field stretcher. I think 100+ targets is well within the range of possibilities for him in year one and given his field-stretching ability, 900-1,000 yards is not out of the question either as essentially the 1-for-1 replacement for Calvin Ridley in that offense. (Addison)
My WR4 will probably be Xavier Worthy. I’m not the biggest Brian Thomas fan and was looking for any reason to move someone in front of him and the Chiefs moving up for Worthy gives me that opportunity. Worthy is not just a deep-speed threat; he broke out as a freshman at Texas and Kansas City seems to already have moved on from Marquise Brown for the 2025 season. (Andrew)
Worthy mania will likely have kicked in already and so it’s more likely than not that he’ll follow up the big 3 once rookie drafts open up. (Eric)
Before the draft, Thomas was my WR4. He is still my WR4, but I can see people losing their minds about Xavier Worthy going to the Chiefs and taking him as WR4. (Justin)
Receiving first-round draft capital was excellent for Worthy, with the landing spot of the Chiefs being the cherry on top of the cake. Worthy was already my WR4 and in a tier of his own. The Chiefs is the perfect system for him to flourish, as a team using plenty of pre-snap motion, using him off of the line of scrimmage and can be mentored as a rookie by a similar veteran in Marquise Brown. (Kev)
After round one, the number four wide receiver is Thomas, but the book hasn’t closed, a second-round wide receiver could jump over Thomas based on their landing spot. Thomas will help fill the void left behind in Jacksonville by Calvin Ridley, who they tried to bring back before he chose Tennessee. Thomas adds another speedy deep threat for Lawrence to showcase his big arm with. (Tim)
8) Where do you expect Ricky Pearsall to be taken in rookie drafts, after the shock selection by the 49ers?
I expect Pearsall to fall in the early second in superflex leagues, maybe the late first in 1QB leagues. Although if/when the Niners trade Deebo Samuel or Brandon Aiyuk, that value could artificially rise again to being an actual first-round pick in all formats. I think that is crazy as I would like him to stay in the second, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in the first. (Addison)
This is not an easy question with the looming potential of San Francisco trading one of Deebo Samuel or Brandon Aiyuk. All signs point to Aiyuk getting moved here, and this Pearsall selection would reinforce that idea. If Aiyuk is traded I think we are looking at Pearsall in the 1.11-2.02 range. If the 49ers recommit to Aiyuk and it looks like Pearsall will enter the season as the WR3 then I think he goes in the 2.02-2.05 range. (Andrew)
As a 49ers fan, this is the kind of pick I was worried about, as it became increasingly obvious that we weren’t moving up to get help on the offensive line or at defensive back. It’s extremely raw now that round one has just ended. He will likely rise to somewhere in the 2.01 to 2.05 range in Superflex and could go as high as 1.09 to 1.10 in 1QB. (Eric)
In superflex leagues I think Pearsall goes in the early to mid second round unless the 49ers trade Aiyuk before the season, then he moves into the late first round. (Justin)
Despite the higher-than-expected draft capital, Pearsall is a player I’ll be avoiding at his projected cost. The 49ers already have a saturated offense, with or without Brandon Aiyuk. I’d only start to be interested in the mid second round range, however this could all change on day two – depending on the landing spots of the remaining wide receivers and top running backs. (Kev)
Pearsall should be drafted around the one and two turn in one-quarterback and superflex drafts. Pearsall is such a talented player, and Kyle Shanahan should be able to get the most out of him, but it’s a loaded wide receiver room, for now. I don’t believe the Niners wide receiver room will look exactly like it does right now in August. (Tim)
9) Where are you ranking Brock Bowers in the tight end landscape, after being drafted by the Raiders?
There’s plenty of time in the future to debate the wisdom of drafting a TE in the first round of the NFL draft, but this isn’t the place. It’s not the ideal spot with Michael Mayer being drafted just one year ago and Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers on the outside. I had Bowers in the TE3-TE6 range before the draft, but I think I can confidently place him at TE6 behind Mark Andrews, Dalton Kincaid, and Kyle Pitts. (Andrew)
So it’s not the landing spot I would have preferred, but by all reports, he’s a unicorn. Maybe he can be just that and be that shining light in the neon city of Las Vegas. I’d put him as my TE6. (Eric)
I love Brock Bowers. I think he is a legit top-five dynasty TE, even with the questionable QB situation. The landing spot is tough with Michael Mayer already there, but I think Bowers hurts Mayer’s value more than the other way around. (Justin)
Bowers is entering the NFL on the back of recent early success of incoming tight ends. He is still super young at 21 years old and the early draft capital implies extreme usage as a rookie. I get the debate of short-term production, however I’m ranking Bowers as my TE3 in dynasty currently as the market dictates I could make an easy pivot to a higher-scoring veteran if I needed the points for a championship challenge in 2024. (Kev)
Las Vegas is a shocking and frustrating landing spot for Brock Bowers in dynasty fantasy football. I don’t trust this offense to be creative enough to utilize all of Bowers’s skills, and the lack of a quarterback is obviously an issue. I had Bowers at seven before the NFL Draft, and now I think I’ll move him below Travis Kelce to TE8. (Tim)
I would have him as my dynasty TE3-4 depending on your team’s direction. I think he’s clearly behind Sam LaPorta and Trey McBride as they are both about as young, but we’ve seen the production already. I think you can argue Mark Andrews still ahead of Bowers depending on if you’re competing in 2024 or not, but Bowers has the age and talent arguments versus Andrews too. (Addison)
10) Which player are you most looking forward to being drafted on day two?
I’m interested to see which RBs are selected on day two, and where they end up. I’m also curious to see how long it takes for the likes of Troy Franklin and Ladd McConkey to be picked. (Eric)
I’m keeping an eye on the running backs. I’m interested to see where they go in the draft and what teams snag RB. I’m really interested in seeing where former Florida State RB Trey Benson goes. He is my RB1. (Justin)
I’m a huge Troy Franklin fan, however he is also one of the most landing spot-dependent prospects on the board. Ideally I want him on a team where he can be used as the WR2, playing off of the line of scrimmage and with an adequate deep passer. Landing on a team with any other usage would be a worry for me. (Kev)
It seems like Ricky Pearsall replaced Ladd McConkey in the first round of the NFL Draft, so now I’m curious where and when McConkey will hear his name called. If the Bills take a wide receiver at the top of round two, that player will fly up the fantasy rankings, and McConkey would be a really intriguing piece in Buffalo. (Tim)
In general, it’s all the running backs, I am a huge fan of the running back class this year from a depth and potential opportunity standpoint. Specifically, I am hoping that all the rumors of Jonathon Brooks to the Cowboys comes to fruition. I would love to see Trey Benson get a starting job, plus Jaylen Wright, Braelon Allen, MarShawn Lloyd, and Blake Corum all have great opportunities to make immediate impacts on whatever team drafts them on day two, assuming they go on day two. (Addison)
As an NFL fan, Adonai Mitchell. He was the consensus WR5 on the big board and he fell out of the first round entirely. From a dynasty perspective, I’m most excited to find out where Jonathon Brooks lands and who is willing to take a chance on him even with the looming ACL recovery. (Andrew)
Thank you for checking out our reaction to day one of the NFL Draft, please comment your thoughts below and be sure to check out the rest of the series over the upcoming days.
He is a keen supporter of mental health projects, where dynasty content is his coping strategy to remain in an optimal mindset.
