Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Drafts: Rookies Destined to be Overdrafted
Dynasty rookie drafts are not easy. There are so many factors that go into determining a prospect’s fantasy football value and future success. But, once the NFL Draft is in the books, there are bound to be players who are being overrated and overdrafted. For some players, there is too much focus put on the pre-draft process, and not enough on what actually happened in Detroit at the end of April. For other players, the landing spot and draft capital are so juicy, that managers ignore the red flags that pushed their value down in the pre-draft process.
Rookie valuations are a delicate balancing act between all of the information that we have at our disposal, not just the most recent or the loudest. We can’t ignore what happened during the NFL Draft, but we can’t overinflate its importance either.
Here is a list of players who have been overdrafted in early superflex rookie drafts, and why their value should be lower.
Xavier Worthy, WR KC (Round 1, Pick 28) (ADP: 10.33)
Worthy won the landing spot lottery in the NFL Draft. He goes to Kansas City, where he’ll catch passes from Patrick Mahomes and potentially even be their leading wide receiver if Rashee Rice gets suspended. Worthy is a speed demon, who runs really nice routes, but his hands are a major issue. His hands are weak and he struggles to control the ball through the lightest contact from cornerbacks. I don’t believe Worthy was a first-round talent, and I think the Chiefs overdrafted him.
On the surface, the Chiefs are a great landing spot for Worthy, but there are some issues. For one thing, he’s a bit redundant with Marquise Brown already there. In the long term, Worthy could replace Brown, but for now they are very similar receivers. The team has also struggled drafting speedy receivers in the past, looking back at Mecole Hardman and Skyy Moore. Finally, Mahomes can be frustrating because he loves to spread the ball all over the field. Worthy should be a second-round pick in the NFL and in dynasty fantasy football, but he’s been elevated into the first round in both thanks to his 4.21-second 40-yard dash.
Jonathon Brooks, RB CAR (Round 2, Pick 14) (ADP: 11.27)
A mistake that too many people make in rookie drafts is drafting for positional need and not going with the best players available. Brooks is a very good player, and his draft capital was a bit higher than most expected, but to see him go ahead of several first-round quarterbacks and wide receivers is head-scratching. Talent needs to be the priority in rookie drafts, it’s better to address team needs in trades.
Images courtesy of the DLF Dynasty Trade Analyzer.
Here’s an example of why you should address team needs through trades more than through the draft. If you’re on the clock with pick 11 in a superflex rookie draft, you could take Brooks, who is the RB17 in the DLF Dynasty Expert Rankings. But, if you decide to trade that pick for a veteran running back, you can target a player like Josh Jacobs, Rachaad White, James Cook and D’Andre Swift, the running backs 11 through 14 in the rankings. Brooks is an impressive running back, but he’s on a low-volume offense and in a crowded backfield. Jacobs is the lead dog in Green Bay, and should be for a few more years to come. He’s the better asset for dynasty fantasy football, and can be acquired with the same pick that is being used for Brooks.
Ladd McConkey, WR LAC (Round 2, Pick 2) (ADP: 13.09)
McConkey’s college film is incredible when he’s on the field. Unfortunately, between injuries and scheme, he didn’t see the field too often at Georgia. He’s a major risk for dynasty fantasy football, but because of the landing spot with the Chargers, he’s nearly a first-round pick in superflex leagues. He had only 30 receptions last season. He never earned more than 770 yards in a single season. The production profile just is not there to be worth the risk of a first-round pick.
While he could get more of an opportunity with the Chargers, I wouldn’t be so sure of that. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are no longer on the team, but Josh Palmer is a solid receiver and Quentin Johnston may get a chance to be ahead of McConkey on the depth chart to start. With Greg Roman and John Harbaugh in town now, they’re going to lean heavily on the rushing game. While it’s a decent landing spot to get on the field, it isn’t the best for high-end production. There are safer players with higher upside going later than McConkey in rookie drafts.
Michael Penix, QB ATL (Round 1, Pick 8) (ADP: 13.91)
The Atlanta Falcons shocked the NFL world, taking Penix with the eighth overall pick, only a few weeks after they signed Kirk Cousins to a nine-figure, four-year contract. This pick will be debated for years to come, just like the Jordan Love pick for the Packers. Honestly, it was a bad pick by the Falcons, and it’s a bad pick in rookie drafts if you use a top-15 pick on him.
I like Penix and he would’ve been a target of mine if he went to a better situation. But, since he’ll spend at least a full year, and likely more, on the bench behind Cousins, I’m going to have to let him pass me by. It’s so tough to carry backup quarterbacks in dynasty superflex leagues, especially in ones that don’t have extremely deep benches or a taxi squad. I’d personally rather wait it out and trade for him at a later date than use a pick on him now. Though, if Cousins is one of your quarterbacks, it certainly makes more sense to target Penix as a handcuff and future starter.
Ben Sinnott, TE WAS (Round 2, Pick 21) (ADP: 27.14)
The argument that Sinnott is being overdrafted is similar to the case made for Brooks above. It’s very easy to be needy at tight end in dynasty leagues, but reaching for a Kyle Jusczcyk clone in the rookie draft is not the way to fill that void. Just because he is the number two tight end in this class, doesn’t mean he’s worth an early third-round pick.
Images courtesy of the DLF Dynasty Trade Analyzer.
Why reach for the TE21 in the DLF Dynasty Expert Rankings at pick 27 when you can use that same pick to trade for the TE16 in Pat Freiermuth? Isaiah Likely, Michael Mayer and Dalton Schultz could also be picked up in a deal for a similar price. I was recently on the clock with pick 23 in a superflex draft and I desperately needed a tight end. Instead of reaching for Sinnott, I traded the pick straight up for David Njoku. After months of hype for this draft class, dynasty managers are licking their lips to add rookies to their dynasty team. It’s a great opportunity to add veteran players to your team over low-end lottery tickets, especially if you believe your team can win in 2024. There’s plenty of talent in this class, so be sure you’re using your picks to add the most talent that you can to your dynasty teams, and don’t fall for the trap of “team need.”
