2024 Rookie Drafts: Wide Receiver Tiers Primer
The 2024 NFL Draft saw three outstanding wide receivers go in the top ten picks, and four more were drafted in the rest of the first round. The three at the top are widely considered blue-chip prospects and some of the best players in the whole draft class. After that there is a drop-off, but how far is the drop-off really? The talent of this draft class has been celebrated for months by the dynasty fantasy football community, but the talent of the wide receivers outside of the top three is not in the same neighborhood as Marvin Harrison Jr, Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze.
For this exercise, we’ll break up the DLF Rookie Rankings into tiers and analyze when those tiers should be targeted in superflex rookie drafts. To kick things off, here are the current rookie wide Receiver rankings, and their ADP in early My Fantasy League rookie drafts.
Image of DLF 2024 Expert Rookie WR Rankings.
Image of My Fantasy League Rookie Dynasty ADP at Wide Receiver.
Tier One – It’s In The Genes
Marvin Harrison Jr, ARI
Harrison Jr has always been in a tier by himself at the top of this wide receiver group. There were some who tried to buck the trend and move Malik Nabers over him, but the poor landing spot for Nabers convinced most everyone to lock Harrison in as the number one receiver in this class. The question now becomes: just how great can he be? He’ll be Kyler Murray’s number one weapon in Arizona for years to come. Murray certainly isn’t Patrick Mahomes, but he has proven his ability to support high-end receivers in the past. Harrison has it all as a prospect, and he should be the number two pick in superflex drafts.
Tier Two – Great Prospects in Bad Landing Spots
Malik Nabers, NYG
Rome Odunze, CHI
In the pre-draft process, you could have argued that Harrison, Nabers and Odunze belonged in the same tier. Unfortunately, the Giants and the Bears selected Nabers and Odunze and they dropped down into tier two. The fear about the landing spots for these players has been overblown and exaggerated. The Giants don’t have an elite passing game, but Nabers will immediately be the number one target for Daniel Jones and could even help to elevate the offense to the next level.
Odunze will play third fiddle for the Bears behind DJ Moore and Keenan Allen to start, but Allen is a short-term obstacle for Odunze. He seems to have a great relationship with Caleb Williams and they will grow in this offense together. I’ve noticed dynasty managers willing to trade out of these picks because they don’t want to deal with the landing spots. That’s a mistake and one that you should pounce on in your dynasty leagues. In superflex, they should both be taken in the top seven along with the top-tier quarterbacks. I personally prefer Odunze to Nabers, but this is listed in the order of the DLF expert rankings.
Tier Three -Pick Your Poison?
Xavier Worthy, KC
Brian Thomas, JAX
Ladd McConkey, LAC
Keon Coleman, BUF
This tier is probably the toughest one to decipher in the entire draft. There are plenty of things to love about all of these prospects, but there are some major red flags as well. Worthy is undersized and has bad hands. Thomas is a one-trick-pony who only broke out in a perfect situation in his final year at LSU. McConkey’s production profile is basically nonexistent, and he is only in this range because of his film and his landing spot. Coleman has the best landing spot of the group, but he’s underdeveloped and doesn’t get much separation. You’ll have to decide which red flag concerns you the least while you’re making a pick in this tier.
For a wide receiver class that was touted as being loaded with high-end talent, it’s a bit disappointing to see the falloff in value from the top three picks down to this tier. It could just be paralysis by overanalysis, but in the last several weeks, it seems like the stock has been going down on this wide receiver class more than it’s been going up. I was faced with a decision between these four receivers in a recent draft and I chose to take Brian Thomas. I did not feel good about that pick at all, but hopefully the talent of this tier can overcome any concerns draft analysts may have.
Tier Four – Rounding Out the First-Round Receivers
Ricky Pearsall, SF
Adonai Mitchell, IND
Xavier Legette, CAR
With Pearsall and Legette coming off the board here, the seven first-round receivers are all off the board after this tier. Pearsall was a shocking first-round pick, and the landing spot in San Francisco is a major concern. Even if he is able to find the field in his rookie season, he’ll likely be fifth in line for targets behind Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Sameul, George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey. Even if one of the other wide receivers leaves town in the next year, I’m worried Pearsall may always be a better NFL player than a fantasy football player. Pearsall was one of my favorite players in the pre-draft process, and I was looking forward to him being a sneaky value in the second round of fantasy drafts. Unfortunately, the draft capital pushes him up the board in rookie drafts, and the landing spot pushes him down my personal big board, so I likely won’t be taking Pearsall in drafts this year.
Legette going to Carolina didn’t help his value either. Unlike Pearsall, he’ll be on the field early and often, but Carolina has butchered their wide receiver draft picks recently. Legette seems like he could be another Jonathan Mingo or Terrace Marshall on an offense that isn’t any good. Meanwhile, Adonai Mitchell wasn’t a player I loved on film, and he slipped deep into the second round when many assumed he would be a first. He’ll get a great chance to be a favorite target for Anthony Richardson, so Mitchell is my favorite win-now pick of this tier.
Tier Five – Great Rookie Draft Values
Roman Wilson, PIT
Ja’Lynn Polk, NE
Malachi Corley, NYJ
Jermaine Burton, CIN
After the first three receivers, this is my favorite tier of receivers in rookie drafts. These four players are all in good opportunities and all have draft capital to be a factor at the NFL level. None of them are perfect prospects – there’s a reason they’re being picked where they are, but if you’re trying to maximize the value of your rookie picks, I believe this is the tier of wide receivers you want to be targeting in trades.
Wilson and Polk are particularly interesting in this tier. Wilson is a speedster who generates separation and could be an immediate replacement for Diontae Johnson. The Steelers have a long history of nailing their wide receiver picks, and Wilson could be next in line for a big role. Polk was a surprising pick at the top of the first round, but reportedly NFL scouts liked him much more than most fantasy analysts. He could already be the best wide receiver on that team, and he actually seems to fit into Drake Maye’s skillset really well. The Patriots hope that Maye, Polk and Baker are the core of their offense for years to come, so he should see plenty of routes and targets.
Tier Six – Rookie Draft Sleepers
Troy Franklin, DEN
Jalen McMillan, TB
Devontez Walker, BAL
Javon Baker, NE
This tier of rookie wide receivers flashed some huge numbers in college, but there are questions about whether those numbers will translate to the NFL. One of the biggest stories of the NFL Draft was the fall of Franklin. Once considered a potential first-round pick, Franklin fell all the way into the back end of the fourth round. Working in his favor, he’ll go to Denver with his Oregon teammate Bo Nix. It’s always fun to see college teammates pair up in the NFL as well, especially at quarterback and wide receiver, but one has to wonder why he fell so far in the NFL Draft.
Lamar Jackson apparently lobbied the Ravens’ front office to draft a big-bodied vertical threat in the first round of the NFL Draft. They didn’t do it in the first, and waited all the way into the fourth round to take Devontez Walker out of North Carolina. Walker arrived in Chapel Hill with huge expectations, but failed to live up to them, partially because of eligibility issues with the NCAA. He could see snaps right away in three-receiver sets in Baltimore and could be a preferred target for Jackson.
Tier Seven – Taxi Squad or Bust
Luke McCaffrey, WAS
Jamari Thrash, CLE
Jacob Cowing, SF
Malik Washington, MIA
This group wraps up the receivers going in the first four rounds of superflex drafts. There are some interesting names in this group, but they’ll have plenty of competition for targets. If you have a taxi squad in your league, park these players on them and see if next off-season’s player movement helps create a greater opportunity for them. Malik Washington is my favorite of the group. Washington was a very popular sleeper pick in the pre-draft process, and while he’ll be behind Waddle and Hill in Miami, I trust Mike McDaniel to always get the most out of the offensive players on his roster. We will certainly see flashes from Washington this year.
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