As DLF’s own Cody Mortensen so thoroughly explained in his GAAP Memo: 2024 1QB Rookie Mock Draft, dynasty managers should really be focusing on three key aspects when analyzing a rookie’s value. They are talent, opportunity, and draft capital. When these three coincide, a player becomes an obvious first-round rookie pick. If even one of those aspects is viewed as a negative, a player can tumble down draft boards and even be written off by some dynasty managers. This value loss creates a different type of opportunity, one in which dynasty managers can take advantage and add an asset at a discount.
While dynasty managers constantly covet first-round rookie picks and often settle for second-rounders, the third round of dynasty rookie drafts is usually overlooked. Last year, Tank Dell had a May rookie ADP of 31 overall. Brian Robinson was a third-rounder two years ago and savvy dynasty managers nabbed Rhamondre Stevenson in this range back in 2021.
The overall hit rate is not excellent. After all, each of these players have questions about at least one…talent, opportunity, or draft capital. Let’s get to work and try to find this year’s third-round gem.
All data is based on our latest 1QB dynasty rookie ADP from May.
The Commanders used their second-round pick on Sinnott, the Kansas State tight end who lit up the NFL Combine, jumpstarting his climb up NFL mock drafts and dynasty rankings. In a thin tight end class, Sinnott has quickly become a hot commodity. Sinnott is the top post-draft riser in our rookie ADP, climbing up 19 spots from April to May. He is currently being drafted twenty-sixth overall as the second tight end. Following last season, the Commanders parted ways with veteran Logan Thomas and signed Zach Ertz. After a solid start to the 2023 season, Ertz suffered an injury and was eventually released by the Cardinals. Ertz will likely be the token starter to begin the season, but the opportunity should be there for Sinnott early in his career. Not only could he quickly ascend the tight end depth chart, but given the Commanders’ shaky wide receiver depth chart after Terry McLaurin, Sinnott could even work his way into being one of the top-three targets on the team.
