2024 Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update: Xavier Worthy
The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty managers, we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In our Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profiles and where they fit. The basis of the rookie profile involves the usage of STORM analysis, focusing on five key components: Situation, Talent, Opportunity, Risk, and Market.
Situation
Name: Xavier Worthy
Position: Wide Receiver
Pro Team: Kansas City Chiefs
College Team: Texas
Draft Status: Round one, 28th overall
Worthy is a true junior wide receiver prospect out of the University of Texas, hailing from Fresno, CA. He was the number four ranked overall recruit in California and number eight wide receiver nationally. Worthy burst onto the college football scene as a true freshman, racking up nearly 1,000 yards receiving and 12 touchdowns. Size has been the biggest red flag for Worthy throughout his career. However, ironically, he played and started in 39 games for the Longhorns since he stepped foot in Austin.
As if some were already jealous of the Chiefs’ success over the last few years, the defending champs came over the top with a haymaker at the end of round one, trading up four spots for the speedster and selecting him with pick 28.
In that case, can the fit plus the situation, be any better than this? I think not. This was THE dream landing spot that became a reality.
Worthy is in a prime spot to make an immediate impact in year one.
Talent
Xavier Worthy Combine Results:
Courtesy of MathBomb/Kent Lee Platte.
Worthy was a high recruit who made an immediate impact for the Longhorns in his debut season in 2021.
A good word used to describe him would be electric. It’s become somewhat of a cliche for the type of receiver Worthy is, but it is appropriate. He was the best receiver the minute he stepped on the field, scoring double-digit touchdowns as a true freshman.
If you had the opportunity to watch any of Texas and Worthy, head coach Steve Sarkisian understood the type of weapon he had, using Worthy in pre-snap motion to allow him a head start at the snap of the ball and hit top-end speed. Worthy was also versatile as an outside receiver, able to run a variety of routes and gain separation with his quickness and twitchy athleticism.
Chiefs head coach Andy Reid is currently the best in the business when it comes to game-planning and scheming open his weapons to put them in a position to succeed week to week. I would expect he has a vision of how he wants to use Worthy in his offense, which might look very similar to his role at Texas.
Opportunity
Kansas City Chiefs Depth Chart:
Courtesy of 4for4.
Worthy has slotted in as the Chiefs’ new WR3 after his first-round selection. However, I would expect his positioning on the depth chart to climb as we get closer to training camp, with the primary reason being the looming suspension of current WR1 Rashee Rice. As of now, Rice enters year two as the leading wide receiver, but it has been reported the Chiefs are expecting a multi-game suspension – anywhere in the neighborhood of six to eight games, and maybe even more.
It is unclear if Rice would be allowed to participate in training camp, but I would assume the offensive staff would want to work Worthy in as much as possible with the first team, knowing they would be without Rice for the first part of the year. And if Worthy shines immediately in camp practices, I’d expect a promotion very quickly as a starter in two and three wide receiver sets.
Courtesy of Sports Reference.
Risk
The obvious concern with Worthy is his slight frame. He measured in at the Combine sub-170 pounds, but thanks to his blazing speed, it catapulted him into day one. His size is no doubt the biggest question mark in terms of longevity for his NFL career. History would tell you that not many who fit his profile have stuck around too long in the NFL.
Despite the size concerns, it is important we look at the big picture with his situation. As I mentioned before, it was a dream fit finding a home in Kansas City. They are one of only a handful of teams that we can trust that will 1) know how to maximize Worthy’s skill set, and 2) be patient in bringing him along and put him in a position to succeed early on.
If both of those things happen, Worthy will make a major impact both in real life and dynasty football.
Market
Courtesy of DLF May 2024 superflex rookie ADP.
With his day one profile, Worthy has solidified himself as a top-ten overall rookie pick. He has kicked off the back end of round one as the current 1.09, sometimes going as high as 1.08 in some leagues. Either way, Worthy is a bona fide round one rookie pick thanks to his draft capital and situation. I think he is “worthy” (see what I did there!) of this slot, as I believe the combination of a high ceiling and upside in Kansas City is more than enough to justify using this late first.
Courtesy of DLF superflex rookie WR ADP.
I also added this screenshot above that depicts the rise Worthy has seen after the surprise day-one selection three weeks ago. He sits as the current rookie WR4, above pre-draft darlings such as Brian Thomas Jr and Ladd McConkey – both of whom landed in intriguing situations themselves. As expected, the top three were all selected in the top ten, and the conversation of WR4 and beyond was always going to start after we knew landing spots. It is hard to argue Worthy’s placement here based on everything that transpired.
Courtesy of DLF Trade Analyzer
Over on the DLF trade analyzer, it sees Worthy as the second most valuable asset among this list of ‘suggested players,’ if you are looking to capitalize on the rookie fever. He has a startup ADP of 91 overall and is the 76th-ranked overall dynasty asset. I would make the argument, despite not taking an NFL snap, he has the highest upside out of any player on this list. None of them excite me well enough to move off the high ceiling that could be with Worthy. He is on a high-powered offense and tied to the best quarterback in the game for the next four years.
Based on that information, I am more than willing to use a late first on Worthy and see what happens. He is an explosive playmaker with the ball in his hands, with the top-end speed to stretch the field and lift the roof off a defense.
- Devy Scouting Notebook: Early-Season Standouts - September 28, 2024
- Devy Summer Scouting Series: Running Backs - August 8, 2024
- Devy Summer Scouting Series: Quarterbacks - July 16, 2024
The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty managers, we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In our Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profiles and where they fit. The basis of the rookie profile involves the usage of STORM analysis, focusing on five key components: Situation, Talent, Opportunity, Risk, and Market.
Situation
Name: Xavier Worthy
Position: Wide Receiver
Pro Team: Kansas City Chiefs
College Team: Texas
Draft Status: Round one, 28th overall
Worthy is a true junior wide receiver prospect out of the University of Texas, hailing from Fresno, CA. He was the number four ranked overall recruit in California and number eight wide receiver nationally. Worthy burst onto the college football scene as a true freshman, racking up nearly 1,000 yards receiving and 12 touchdowns. Size has been the biggest red flag for Worthy throughout his career. However, ironically, he played and started in 39 games for the Longhorns since he stepped foot in Austin.
As if some were already jealous of the Chiefs’ success over the last few years, the defending champs came over the top with a haymaker at the end of round one, trading up four spots for the speedster and selecting him with pick 28.
In that case, can the fit plus the situation, be any better than this? I think not. This was THE dream landing spot that became a reality.
Worthy is in a prime spot to make an immediate impact in year one.
Talent
Xavier Worthy Combine Results:
Courtesy of MathBomb/Kent Lee Platte.
Worthy was a high recruit who made an immediate impact for the Longhorns in his debut season in 2021.
A good word used to describe him would be electric. It’s become somewhat of a cliche for the type of receiver Worthy is, but it is appropriate. He was the best receiver the minute he stepped on the field, scoring double-digit touchdowns as a true freshman.
If you had the opportunity to watch any of Texas and Worthy, head coach Steve Sarkisian understood the type of weapon he had, using Worthy in pre-snap motion to allow him a head start at the snap of the ball and hit top-end speed. Worthy was also versatile as an outside receiver, able to run a variety of routes and gain separation with his quickness and twitchy athleticism.
Chiefs head coach Andy Reid is currently the best in the business when it comes to game-planning and scheming open his weapons to put them in a position to succeed week to week. I would expect he has a vision of how he wants to use Worthy in his offense, which might look very similar to his role at Texas.
Opportunity
Kansas City Chiefs Depth Chart:
Courtesy of 4for4.
Worthy has slotted in as the Chiefs’ new WR3 after his first-round selection. However, I would expect his positioning on the depth chart to climb as we get closer to training camp, with the primary reason being the looming suspension of current WR1 Rashee Rice. As of now, Rice enters year two as the leading wide receiver, but it has been reported the Chiefs are expecting a multi-game suspension – anywhere in the neighborhood of six to eight games, and maybe even more.
It is unclear if Rice would be allowed to participate in training camp, but I would assume the offensive staff would want to work Worthy in as much as possible with the first team, knowing they would be without Rice for the first part of the year. And if Worthy shines immediately in camp practices, I’d expect a promotion very quickly as a starter in two and three wide receiver sets.
Courtesy of Sports Reference.
Risk
The obvious concern with Worthy is his slight frame. He measured in at the Combine sub-170 pounds, but thanks to his blazing speed, it catapulted him into day one. His size is no doubt the biggest question mark in terms of longevity for his NFL career. History would tell you that not many who fit his profile have stuck around too long in the NFL.
Despite the size concerns, it is important we look at the big picture with his situation. As I mentioned before, it was a dream fit finding a home in Kansas City. They are one of only a handful of teams that we can trust that will 1) know how to maximize Worthy’s skill set, and 2) be patient in bringing him along and put him in a position to succeed early on.
If both of those things happen, Worthy will make a major impact both in real life and dynasty football.
Market
Courtesy of DLF May 2024 superflex rookie ADP.
With his day one profile, Worthy has solidified himself as a top-ten overall rookie pick. He has kicked off the back end of round one as the current 1.09, sometimes going as high as 1.08 in some leagues. Either way, Worthy is a bona fide round one rookie pick thanks to his draft capital and situation. I think he is “worthy” (see what I did there!) of this slot, as I believe the combination of a high ceiling and upside in Kansas City is more than enough to justify using this late first.
Courtesy of DLF superflex rookie WR ADP.
I also added this screenshot above that depicts the rise Worthy has seen after the surprise day-one selection three weeks ago. He sits as the current rookie WR4, above pre-draft darlings such as Brian Thomas Jr and Ladd McConkey – both of whom landed in intriguing situations themselves. As expected, the top three were all selected in the top ten, and the conversation of WR4 and beyond was always going to start after we knew landing spots. It is hard to argue Worthy’s placement here based on everything that transpired.
Courtesy of DLF Trade Analyzer
Over on the DLF trade analyzer, it sees Worthy as the second most valuable asset among this list of ‘suggested players,’ if you are looking to capitalize on the rookie fever. He has a startup ADP of 91 overall and is the 76th-ranked overall dynasty asset. I would make the argument, despite not taking an NFL snap, he has the highest upside out of any player on this list. None of them excite me well enough to move off the high ceiling that could be with Worthy. He is on a high-powered offense and tied to the best quarterback in the game for the next four years.
Based on that information, I am more than willing to use a late first on Worthy and see what happens. He is an explosive playmaker with the ball in his hands, with the top-end speed to stretch the field and lift the roof off a defense.
- Devy Scouting Notebook: Early-Season Standouts - September 28, 2024
- Devy Summer Scouting Series: Running Backs - August 8, 2024
- Devy Summer Scouting Series: Quarterbacks - July 16, 2024
