2024 Rookie Drafts: Quarterback Tiers Primer

The 2024 NFL Draft was a historic draft for the quarterback position. Six of the top 12 picks were quarterbacks, the most we’ve ever seen. The six first-round picks tied with the 1983 draft for the most first-round quarterbacks. It was also the first draft ever with no quarterbacks drafted in the second, third or fourth rounds. The drop from Bo Nix at pick 12 to Spencer Rattler at pick 150 is the longest quarterback drought in NFL Draft history. The dynasty quarterback landscape has changed and quarterbacks will define the 2024 dynasty rookie drafts.

For this exercise, we’ll break up the DLF Rookie Rankings into tiers and analyze when those tiers should be targeted in superflex rookie drafts. To kick things off, here are the current rookie quarterback rankings, and their ADP in early My Fantasy League rookie drafts.

Image of DLF 2024 Expert Rookie QB Rankings.

Image of My Fantasy League Rookie Dynasty ADP at Quarterback.

Tier One – Historic Rookie Season Incoming?

Caleb Williams, CHI

You’d be hard-pressed to find a better situation for a number one pick at quarterback in NFL history. Ryan Poles deserves a ton of credit for learning from the mistakes of the Justin Fields era and setting up Caleb Williams for success in Chicago. With Keenan Allen, DJ Moore and Rome Odunze, Williams may have one of the best trios of wide receivers in the league. Cole Kmet is a very solid pass-catching tight end. The defense is looking really good. The offensive line is the only spot that could be a problem for Williams in his rookie season.

When you consider, on top of all of that, that Williams has been considered by many to be a “generational” prospect, he’s all set up to have a great career! In the pre-draft process, I preferred Marvin Harrison Jr as my number one pick in superflex drafts, but now, Williams should be locked in as the number one pick in that format.

Tier Two – First Tier Most Other Years

Jayden Daniels, WAS

Drake Maye, NE

After months of speculation and trade discussions, the top three picks went exactly as most mock drafters predicted. The Heisman Trophy winner went off the board second to Washington and New England turned down multiple trade offers with multiple first-round picks to take Maye. The landing spots aren’t great for either player, especially at offensive line. Both Washington and New England have huge holes on the line that they weren’t able to completely address in the draft. Considering Daniels’s frame and Maye’s struggles with pressure, this could lead to disaster early on for both of these players.

With the negatives out of the way, these are both high-end quarterbacks who could’ve been number one overall picks in many other draft classes. Daniels is an electric playmaker with his legs and a touchdown machine with his arm. 2023 was such a great season it pushed him all the way up to the number two pick in the draft. Maye’s arm talent is off the charts, and his athleticism reminds many people of Josh Allen. While Maye is more of a developmental project than Daniels is, I personally have him as my QB two in this draft.

Both of these players have massive upside and could be perennial top-ten quarterbacks for fantasy football at the peak of their careers.

Tier Three – Floor and Situation

JJ McCarthy, MIN

McCarthy gets a great landing spot in Minnesota. He’ll be throwing the ball to Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and TJ Hockenson once he is healthy. None of the other quarterbacks in this class, not even Caleb Williams, has that kind of talent at the pass-catching positions. For that reason, McCarthy is by himself in this third tier. Some will put him ahead of Maye, and even ahead of Daniels in their rookie quarterback rankings, but I believe that is short-sighted and a mistake for dynasty rookie drafts.

Because of the situation he is being drafted into, McCarthy’s floor is higher than that of Daniels and Maye, but his talent just is not on the same level as the other two. McCarthy flashed at times in college at Minnesota, but nothing jumps off the page for him. It’s telling to me that multiple teams were trying to move up to the second or third picks to draft Daniels and Maye. Once those two were off the board, the trade talks subsided. That is until the Vikings panicked and moved up one pick to take McCarthy at 10 overall. It’s clear the NFL didn’t value McCarthy in the same tier as Maye and Daniels, so I won’t be putting him in the same tier for my dynasty rankings. In fact, the Falcons even passed on him when they shocked the world and took Penix with the eighth overall pick. McCarthy is still worth a mid-first-round pick in rookie drafts, but I won’t be taking him over the three players mentioned already.

Tier Four – A Starting Quarterback is a Starting Quarterback

Bo Nix, DEN

The Broncos overdrafted Nix with the 12th pick in the NFL Draft. It wasn’t a shocking pick, as the Broncos’ pursuit of Nix was the worst-kept secret in football for the past couple of months, but it was still earlier than he should’ve gone. Nix may start his career on the bench, behind either Jarrett Stidham or Zach Wilson, but it won’t be long before he is the starter in Denver.

One positive for Nix is that the Broncos paired him up with college teammate Troy Franklin in the fourth round. Franklin was once considered a possible first-round pick, but he did not test well at the combine and fell all the way down to the second pick on day three. It was a shocking fall, but the Broncos took advantage of it and paired their new quarterback up with his favorite college target. It’s a helpful addition for the new signal-caller, and it should help both players get out to a quicker start in their rookie seasons. Nix should start to be considered in superflex rookie drafts at the tail-end of the second round. Sean Payton and company will need to justify this pick early on, and prove that they didn’t just take another Paxton Lynch or Tim Tebow in Denver.

Tier Five – Premium Quarterback Handcuff

Michael Penix Jr, ATL

It’s another one-quarterback tier in these rookie rankings with Penix as the lone premium quarterback handcuff in this draft. Frankly, the Falcons made a huge mistake taking him at eight overall. While we have seen teams have success doing this recently, namely the Chiefs and Packers, those situations were completely different than this one. Those teams didn’t just sign a new veteran quarterback to a four-year, $100 million contract. They also didn’t spend a top-ten pick on their heir-apparent QB. I really liked Penix in the pre-draft process and thought he would end up being a great value in rookie drafts, but he’s now buried behind Kirk Cousins for at least a year, likely more than that.

I can’t use a top-15 pick on a mid-talent quarterback who is sitting behind a veteran for years to come, even in superflex. Unless there is an injury to Cousins in 2024, Penix’s value will drop over the next 12 months. Instead of using one of those draft picks on him, I’d rather use it on someone else, and try to trade for him later.

Tier Six – Deep League Quarterback Handcuffs

Jordan Travis, NYJ

Spencer Rattler, NO

After Nix was taken with the 12th pick, Rattler was the next quarterback selected, 137 picks later. There is going to be a major value dropoff from tier five to tier six in rookie drafts, and that’s the way it should be. Travis and Rattler land on teams with veteran quarterbacks, who could be out of the league or on another team as early as 2025. It certainly isn’t a guarantee that these two will be the next in line at quarterback when Derek Carr and Aaron Rodgers do move on, but they’ll be in the building and have a chance to earn a shot at the job.

I like Travis a touch more than Rattler, which is why he’s listed first on this list. He has more fantasy football upside because of his ability to run the ball. Rattler is a good pocket passer, but he won’t be mobile enough to make plays with his legs. Despite that, Rattler could have an easier path to playing time in 2024. Rattler will compete with Jake Haener (a fourth-round pick in 2023, earlier than Rattler) to be the immediate backup to Carr. Travis, who is coming off of a season-ending injury, will be the third QB on the depth chart behind Rodgers and Tyrod Taylor. Once you get into the third round of rookie drafts, you could start to consider either of these quarterbacks, especially if you’re relying on Carr or Rodgers in your starting lineups.

Tier Seven – Off the Dynasty Radar, For Now

Michael Pratt, GB

Devin Leary, BAL

Joe Milton III, NE

The rest of the quarterbacks who were drafted in the NFL Draft are not currently on the dynasty fantasy football radar, except for in the deepest superflex and two quarterback leagues. I think the Packers got a great value in Michael Pratt in the seventh round of the NFL Draft, so he finds himself at the top of this tier. He could compete for the backup role behind Jordan Love as early as this season, and I believe he’ll be a sought-after backup in this league for years to come. Devin Leary and Joe Milton are interesting players with some talent, but they’ll be fighting for roster spots in their rookie seasons.

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Tim Riordan

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Tim has spent over a decade in sports radio as a host, analyst, play-by-play broadcaster and a producer. He’s been called the Tom Brady of dynasty commissioners and an expert of player values.