Weekly Matchups: Three Games To Target

If you follow me on Twitter, you’ve probably noticed a series of tweets I share on a weekly basis regarding player and team defensive performances, all from a fantasy lens. I’m going to be sharing some of that same information with you here. I use this each week as I am making my own lineup and waiver wire decisions and thought you might find this valuable as well.

As part of my weekly fantasy football data deep dive, I look at how many top-12 performances each NFL team is producing and allowing. The idea is that teams that have been involved in many high-level fantasy scoring performances will continue to be in future weeks and these are the teams we want pieces of on Sundays.

When two teams with high levels meet up, it’s fireworks time! This week, there are three games I’m especially interested in based on this data. These are games in which all main characters are automatic weekly starts and the supporting cast can even be used as a flex option or injury fill-in.

Note: The number in parentheses combines top-12 fantasy football performances produced and allowed so far this season.

Jaguars (34) vs Eagles (26)

You might be surprised to see such a high number for Jacksonville, but it makes sense that most of that (21) has come via top 12 games allowed. That’s huge news for Jalen Hurts, AJ Brown, Saquon Barkley, and DeVonta Smith. Each are obvious fantasy starts, but in this game, with the Eagles favored by more than a touchdown, we could see Kenneth Gainwell or Will Shipley get some 4th quarter run.

The Jaguars are a little tougher to use, especially with injuries to Christian Kirk and Brian Thomas. The Eagles have slowed the run all season, making Tank Bigsby and Travis Etienne iffy plays. This is a great spot for Evan Engram though and he thrived in a “last man standing” situation last season and finds himself there again.

Lions (28) vs Packers (29)

The two NFC North foes are pretty balanced when it comes to their offense/defense breakdown. The Lions have been tough against running backs but are getting waxed by wide receivers. With Jordan Love’s status up in the air, this is a tricky one, but I’d still roll out the full gamut of Green Bay wideouts.

The Lions will once again be without Jameson Williams, which offers a boost to tight end Sam LaPorta and depth receivers like Kalif Raymond and even Tim Patrick. The Packers have also given up a league-high six TE1 games. This should be another big week for the Detroit offense.

Rams (21) vs Seahawks (34)

The Rams, with 21 total top-12 games, might not look like they belong in this conversation. With receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua back on the field, this is a different squad. Matthew Stafford notched his first QB1 game of the season last week against the Vikings and Nacua and Kupp were both starter-level fantasy options in their first game back from injury. We even saw Demarcus Robinson and Tutu Atwell remain involved. Only four teams have allowed more top-12 fantasy performances this season than Seattle. Fire up all of the Rams!

We’re still not sure if DK Metcalf will suit up this weekend and Kenneth Walker seems to be questionable every week. In general though, this Seahawks offense, under a new coaching staff, always has a green light. Geno Smith remains among the most underrated quarterbacks in the game. The Rams defense has been especially susceptible to opposing tight ends and running backs. Along with Walker, Smith, and hopefully Metcalf, make sure Noah Fant finds a spot in your fantasy lineup.

Note: The scoring system used is always PPR with four points for passing touchdowns and all stats and info are provided by Fantasy Data.

Quarterbacks

Week 8 QB1s

Rank	Player	Fantasy Points Last Week
QB1	Jalen Hurts, PHI	35.10
QB2	Bo Nix, DEN	29.80
QB3	Kirk Cousins, ATL	28.60
QB4	Brock Purdy, SF	26.00
QB5	Matthew Stafford, LAR	24.80
QB6	Lamar Jackson, BAL	24.20
QB7	Justin Herbert, LAC	24.10
QB8	Jameis Winston, CLE	23.60
QB9	Trevor Lawrence, JAX	23.30
QB10	Baker Mayfield, TB	22.30
QB11	Jayden Daniels, WAS	22.20
QB11 (tie)	Kyler Murray, ARI	22.20

Season-Long QB1s

Rank	Player	Fantasy Points This Season
QB1	Lamar Jackson, BAL	202.10
QB2	Baker Mayfield, TB	184.50
QB3	Jayden Daniels, WAS	161.80
QB4	Josh Allen, BUF	159.00
QB5	Joe Burrow, CIN	148.30
QB6	Jalen Hurts, PHI	147.30
QB7	Kyler Murray, ARI	145.90
QB8	Brock Purdy, SF	145.00
QB9	Bo Nix, DEN	133.10
QB10	Geno Smith, SEA	129.60
QB11	Trevor Lawrence, JAX	125.40
QB12	Kirk Cousins, ATL	125.00

Most QB1 Games This Season

QB1 Games	Players
7	Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson
6	Jalen Hurts, Jayden Daniels
5	Geno Smith, Joe Burrow
4	Jordan Love, Josh Allen, Bo Nix, Brock Purdy, Kyler Murray

Most QB1 Games Allowed

QB1 Games Allowed	Team DSTs
7	JAX
6	BAL, TB
5	CAR
4	ATL, CLE, DAL, HOU, LV, NYG
3	ARI, CIN, GB, IND, KC, MIN, PHI, SEA, TEN, WAS
2	DET, LAC, LAR, NE, NO, NYJ, SF
1	BUF, CHI, DEN, MIA
0	PIT

The Jaguars finally ended their season-long streak of allowing QB1 performances, thanks to an injury for Jordan Love last week. In Week Nine, they are ready to be in pain once again, at the hands (and feet) of Jalen Hurts. Rookie Bo Nix is coming off the best game of his young career and has a chance to stay hot against a vulnerable Ravens defense that has allowed six QB1 games and allows the third-most fantasy points per game to the position.

Patrick Mahomes’ fantasy production this season has been disappointing, to say the least. He’s even being dropped in 1QB seasonal leagues. This could be the start of a breakout though as the Chiefs face the Buccaneers, who are one of three teams allowing more than 25 points per game to opposing signal callers.

Other quarterbacks with positive matchups include a pair of players with injury concerns, Derek Carr (vs CAR) and Drake Maye (vs. CIN.)

The Steelers are the last team to allow a QB1 game and that won’t end this week as they are on bye. That leaves fantasy players chasing other matchups and things get tricky. Some of the top quarterbacks, those that would be universally considered must-starts, have difficult matchups in Week Nine. The four teams that have allowed just one QB1 performance this season now face Tua Tagovailoa (vs. BUF), Kyler Murray (vs. CHI), Lamar Jackson (vs. DEN), and Josh Allen (vs. MIA.)

Running Backs

Week 8 RB1s

Rank	Player	Fantasy Points Last Week
RB1	James Cook, BUF	28.30
RB2	De’Von Achane, MIA	26.70
RB3	Josh Jacobs, GB	25.50
RB4	Bijan Robinson, ATL	23.60
RB5	Rhamondre Stevenson, NE	23.50
RB6	Joe Mixon, HOU	23.40
RB7	Tyrone Tracy, NYG	23.00
RB8	Kyren Williams, LAR	22.60
RB9	Jahmyr Gibbs, DET	20.30
RB10	Isaac Guerendo, SF	19.20
RB11	D’Andre Swift, CHI	18.80
RB12	Jonathan Taylor, IND	18.70

Season-Long RB1s

Rank	Player	Fantasy Points This Season
RB1	Derrick Henry, BAL	175.20
RB2	Alvin Kamara, NO	163.20
RB3	Saquon Barkley, PHI	144.20
RB4	Bijan Robinson, ATL	140.00
RB5	Kyren Williams, LAR	139.30
RB6	Jahmyr Gibbs, DET	135.50
RB7	Breece Hall, NYJ	129.40
RB8	James Cook, BUF	121.70
RB9	Kenneth Walker, SEA	119.80
RB10	Josh Jacobs, GB	117.20
RB11	Chuba Hubbard, CAR	116.10
RB12	David Montgomery, DET	113.40

Most RB1 Games This Season

RB1 Games	Players
5	Derrick Henry
4	Jahmyr Gibbs, Breece Hall, James Cook, Kenneth Walker, Saquon Barkley, D’Andre Swift, Joe Mixon, Rhamondre Stevenson

Most RB1/2 Games Allowed

RB1/2 Games Allowed	Team DSTs
11	CAR
10
9	ARI, LV
8	BUF, JAX, NE, TB
7	LAR, MIA, NYG, WAS
6	ATL, CIN, DAL, GB, IND, NO, PIT, SEA, TEN
5	CLE, DEN, LAC, NYJ, SF
4	BAL, CHI, DET, HOU
3	MIN, PHI
2	KC

The Panthers are beginning to separate themselves as the worst fantasy football run defense, allowing 11 top-24 performances through eight weeks. The Saints running game and Alvin Kamara have hit a rough patch in recent weeks but with Carr potentially back and facing Carolina, this is a smash spot for Kamara.

Six squads are giving up at least one top-24 fantasy game per week so far and offer fantasy-friendly matchups to running backs this week. They include: Arizona (vs. D’Andre Swift), Las Vegas (vs. Chase Brown), Buffalo (vs. De’Von Achane/Raheem Mostert), Jacksonville (vs. Barkley), New England (vs. Tony Pollard) and Tampa Bay (vs. Kareem Hunt.)

The Chiefs have been tough against the run, allowing just two top-24 performances all season. That’s bad news for the Buccaneers backfield this week, despite how red-hot Bucky Irving and Rachaad White have been in recent weeks.

Other teams with matchups to shy away from this week include the Vikings (vs. Jonathan Taylor), Eagles (vs. Bigsby/Etienne), Ravens (vs. Javonte Williams), Bears (vs. James Conner), Lions (vs. Jacobs), Texans (vs. Breece Hall) and Chargers (vs. Nick Chubb.)

Wide Receivers

Week 8 WR1s

Rank	Player	Fantasy Points Last Week
WR1	CeeDee Lamb, DAL	39.60
WR2	Ladd McConkey, LAC	29.10
WR3	Cedric Tillman, CLE	28.90
WR4	Marvin Harrison, ARI	23.10
WR5	Calvin Ridley, TEN	22.60
WR6	Josh Downs, IND	22.20
WR7	DeVonta Smith, PHI	20.50
WR8	Ja’Marr Chase, CIN	20.40
WR9	Khalil Shakir, BUF	19.90
WR10	Justin Jefferson, MIN	19.50
WR11	Chris Olave, NO	18.70
WR12	Darnell Mooney, ATL	18.60

Season-Long WR1s

Rank	Player	Fantasy Points This Season
WR1	Ja’Marr Chase, CIN	158.50
WR2	Chris Godwin, TB	137.80
WR3	Justin Jefferson, MIN	135.90
WR4	CeeDee Lamb, DAL	132.00
WR5	Drake London, ATL	130.50
WR6	Garrett Wilson, NYJ	126.80
WR7	Brian Thomas, JAX	123.80
WR8	Stefon Diggs, HOU	121.90
WR9	Terry McLaurin, WAS	120.10
WR10	Jayden Reed, GB	116.70
WR11	Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET	116.10
WR12	Malik Nabers, NYG	113.80

Most WR1 Games This Season

WR1 Games	Players
4	Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown
3	Chris Godwin, Brian Thomas, AJ Brown, Diontae Johnson, DK Metcalf, Malik Nabers, Mike Evans

Most WR1/2 Games Allowed

WR1/2 Games Allowed	Team DSTs
10	MIN
9	BAL, CAR, HOU, JAX
8	ATL, CIN, CLE, TB
7	DET, GB, SEA
6	IND, NE, PHI, SF, WAS
5	ARI, BUF, KC, NO
4	CHI, DAL, DEN, LAC, LAR, LV, NYG, NYJ, PIT, TEN
3	MIA

Three teams are allowing more than 40 fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts, making these obvious teams to target each week. We’ve already discussed targeting the Lions’ defense with the Packers crew, but the Ravens (vs. Courtland Sutton) and Vikings (vs. Michael Pittman/Josh Downs) are other teams to attack.

Other wide receivers with positive matchups include Chris Olave (vs. CAR), Davante Adams/Garrett Wilson (vs. HOU), AJ Brown/DeVonta Smith (vs. JAX), DeAndre Hopkins/Xavier Worthy (vs. TB.)

The Dolphins have been the toughest team against fantasy wideouts, giving up just three top-24 performances this season. The Bills trio of Amari Cooper, Keon Coleman, and Khalil Shakir will be challenged by Miami this week.

Other wideouts who might perform below expectations this week due to matchups are Marvin Harrison, Jr. (vs. CHI), Drake London/Darnell Mooney (vs. DAL), Zay Flowers/Diontae Johnson (vs. DEN), Cedric Tillman/Jerry Jeudy (vs. LAC), DK Metcalf/Jaxon Smith-Njigba (vs. LAR), Ja’Marr Chase/Tee Higgins (vs. LV), Terry McLaurin (vs. NYG), Tank Dell (vs. NYJ) and Demario Douglas (vs. TEN.)

Tight Ends

Week 8 TE1s

Rank	Player	Fantasy Points Last Week
TE1	Cade Otton, TB	29.10
TE2	Kyle Pitts, ATL	25.10
TE3	Travis Kelce, KC	25.00
TE4	George Kittle, SF	24.80
TE5	Trey McBride, ARI	21.40
TE6	Adam Trautman, DEN	18.50
TE7	David Njoku, CLE	17.10
TE8	Sam LaPorta, DET	16.80
TE8 (tie)	Tucker Kraft, GB	16.80
TE10	Zach Ertz, WAS	14.70
TE11	Mark Andrews, BAL	14.60
TE12	Evan Engram, JAX	13.60

Season-Long TE1s

Rank	Player	Fantasy Points This Season
TE1	George Kittle, SF	126.33
TE2	Brock Bowers, LV	112.70
TE3	Trey McBride, ARI	92.60
TE4	Kyle Pitts, ATL	88.90
TE5	Tucker Kraft, GB	88.40
TE6	Cade Otton, TB	86.00
TE7	Travis Kelce, KC	77.60
TE8	Cole Kmet, CHI	77.30
TE9	Zach Ertz, WAS	74.50
TE10	Hunter Henry, NE	73.80
TE11	Mark Andrews, BAL	72.30
TE12	Dalton Kincaid, BUF	70.00

Most TE1 Games This Season

TE1 Games	Players
7	George Kittle
6
5	Brock Bowers, Zach Ertz
4	Cade Otton, Kyle Pitts, Mark Andrews, Sam LaPorta, Trey McBride, Tucker Kraft

Most TE1 Games Allowed

TE1 Games Allowed	Team DSTs
6	BAL, GB
5	JAX, LAR
4	CAR, CIN, IND, SEA, TB
3	BUF, CHI, CLE, DAL, DEN, KC, LV, MIN, NO, PIT, WAS
2	ARI, DET, HOU, LAC, MIA, NE, NYG, NYJ, SF
1	ATL, PHI, TEN

The Ravens and Packers have allowed a league-high six TE1 games this season. We’ve already discussed LaPorta as a strong play this week. Unfortunately, fantasy managers probably can’t take advantage of the Baltimore weakness as the Broncos use a tight end by committee.

Other tight ends to chase this week include Cade Otton (vs. KC), TJ Hockenson (vs. IND), Travis Kelce (vs. TB), and Juwan Johnson (vs. CAR.)

The Falcons (vs. Jake Ferguson), Eagles (vs. Evan Engram) and Titans (vs. Hunter Henry) have each allowed just one TE1 performance this season, so adjust your expectations for those players in Week Nine.

Finally, here is the chart summarizing how teams have fared against each position. I’ve also included the schedule for this week for reference.

 

 

Weekly Matchups: Three Games To Target