The 2024 Perfect Startup Draft: Superflex Productive Struggle
We continue with our 2024 “Perfect Draft” strategy series, focusing on how to win your startup dynasty drafts. Anyone who has followed us for any length of time knows you can’t enter a draft without a strategy but which strategy you choose will directly affect who you want to target. With that in mind, these are the strategies we’re going to cover:
- Win Now
- Value
- Balanced
- Productive Struggle
- Fake Punt
- Bully QB/TE
- Robust RB
Today, we’ll continue the series with an analysis of a superflex draft using Ryan McDowell’s “Productive Struggle” strategy. With this strategy, we’re focusing on building for the future. You’re almost intentionally losing in season one, hoping for high draft picks in future rookie drafts. A key part of this strategy involves trading away startup draft picks for chunks of future assets. For this exercise, we’ll focus on the players to target, but keep in mind that your draft picks should be on the block in every round. Wide receivers and quarterbacks are going to be the focus of this draft plan. We’re going to look at three different areas of the draft to demonstrate how to execute this strategy from anywhere in the draft order. Early is defined as picks one to four, middle as picks five to eight, and late as picks nine through 12. Many start-up draft picks are bound to be traded and every draft format is a little different but this will give you an idea of who you can target throughout the draft.
Using July Superflex ADP, let’s have the perfect dynasty startup draft.
First Round
Early (Team One) : Josh Allen, QB BUF
In almost every draft strategy, quarterbacks will be the focus of the early rounds of the draft. Even in a productive struggle draft, Allen can anchor your quarterback position for years to come. He’s been the QB1 for fantasy three of the past four seasons. This year could be a down year for him with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis leaving, but we aren’t trying to win in year one, so that’s no problem at all. Note, for this strategy, early first round picks are prime ones to trade for massive value.
Mid (Team Two) : Anthony Richardson, QB IND
Anthony Richardson is a great target in the first round for this draft strategy. He’s only 22 years-old and we saw last year how incredibly high his ceiling can be. He’ll always be an injury risk, so team two will need to make sure they have a solid option for their third quarterback, but that could even be addressed in future rookie drafts.
Late (Team Three) : Kyler Murray, QB ARI
All three of our productive struggle teams take a quarterback in the first round. Murray is another young and ascending QB who could see his value grow exponentially over the next year. The Cardinals brought in a generational talent for him at wide receiver in Marvin Harrision Jr., you may even be able to stack these two for a massive upside start to your draft. Murray is one of my favorite dynasty quarterbacks to target this off-season.
Second Round
Early (Team Three) : Marvin Harrison Jr., WR ARI
Team three completes the Phoenix stack by taking rookie Marvin Harrison in the third-round. Anyone using this strategy should be targeting Harrison as soon as they possibly can. He’s a perfect fit for this strategy. By the time this team is ready to compete, Harrison will be one of the best players in the league.
Mid (Team Two): Jayden Daniels, QB WAS
Team two comes away with two cheat code quarterbacks who are 23 years-old or younger in Richardson and now Jayden Daniels. This team is building for the future, but this is still a significant risk. If Richardson becomes an injury problem and Daniels struggles to transition to the NFL, these picks could be worth very little by the time this team is ready to compete. I believe it’s more likely that team two has two top five quarterbacks for 2025 and beyond.
Late (Team One) : Puka Nacua, WR LAR
Nacua is an outstanding pick here for this strategy. The biggest problem with drafting him for this season is Cooper Kupp. We don’t know if Kupp is going to go back to being the alpha target in this offense now that he’s completely healthy. In 2025 and beyond, this will almost certainly be Nacua’s offense, and he’ll be a fringe first round pick in superflex.
Third Round
Early (Team One) : Malik Nabers, WR WAS
Team one takes a risk here and grabs a second wide receiver, instead of a second quarterback. The upside of Nabers is just too juicy to pass up. He’ll spend his rookie season catching passes from Daniel Jones, but beyond that we’re not sure who his quarterback will be. If the Giants are ever able to finally upgrade from Jones, Nabers will be an extremely valuable option.
Mid (Team Two) : Jaylen Waddle, WR MIA
Here is another player who should see his dynasty value increase between now and the time this team wants to compete. Waddle is an outstanding player, but he’s stuck playing second fiddle to Tyreek Hill. Hill is 30 years-old, and has said in the past he only plans to play until the end of this contract. I don’t quite believe that, but Waddle will surpass Hill at some point in the near future.
Late (Team Three) : Drake London, WR ATL
Drake London is expected to take a massive step forward with Kirk Cousins this season. At only 23 years-old, he’s a great target for a productive struggle draft. Cousins is well known for hyper-targeting his best wide receiver and elevating them to a high-end fantasy asset. It isn’t fair to expect Justin Jefferson numbers from London, but it is within the realm of possibilities.
Fourth Round
Early (Team Three) : Drake Maye, QB NE
Team three is nailing this draft, taking Drake Maye with their fourth-round pick. Maye is being drafted as the number 18 quarterback in superflex right now, and it’s because we don’t know if he’s even going to see the field in 2024. Team three isn’t trying to win in 2024, they’re focusing on ‘25 and beyond. Maye has the potential to be a fantasy QB1, if he can figure out some of his accuracy problems that he suffered in college. This Patriots offense is primed to turn things around, but it probably won’t happen this year.
Mid (Team Two) : Rome Odunze, WR CHI
Rome Odunze is another young stud wide receiver who may need a year or so of seasoning in the NFL before he breaks out. The problem with Odunze for this year is the presence of Keenan Allen. While Allen is in Chicago, Odunze’s upside will always be capped. But, when Allen moves on, Odunze will be a favorite target of Caleb Williams. I love getting him in the middle of the fourth round of a startup superflex draft.
Late (Team One) : JJ McCarthy, QB MIN
McCarthy will start his career playing behind Sam Darnold, but team one doesn’t care about that. They’re drafting him to win championships in 2025 and beyond. Once he takes over the job, McCarthy will have one of the best trio of receivers in the league to throw to in Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and TJ Hockenson.
Fifth Round
Early (Team One) : Jonathon Brooks, RB CAR
Brooks is the first running back to be selected in this exercise, but he’s a perfect fit for these team builds. Brooks is already the RB10 in dynasty fantasy football leagues, and he’s coming off of an ACL injury. He may struggle to get his explosiveness back to full blast in 2024, but he’s a very talented running back who won’t have the wear and tear of a ton of volume in his rookie season.
Mid (Team Two) : DJ Moore, WR CHI
Moore finally lived up to his full potential last season in Chicago. The Bears rewarded him with a contract that will keep him in Chicago through 2029, catching touchdowns from Williams for years to come. It’s an outstanding pick, the only problem is this team has already drafted Odunze. If having two receivers on the same team is something team two wanted to avoid, Zay Flowers would have been a nice value in this range as well.
Late (Team Three) : Tee Higgins, WR CIN
Higgins joins a young and loaded wide receiver room for team three with Harrison and London. This is forming into an ideal start to a productive struggle team. Higgins will play out this season, begrudgingly, on the franchise tag in Cincinnati. Assuming they let him walk next season, he should find himself on a new team where he is the alpha wide receiver for years to come.
Sixth Round
Early (Team Three) : George Pickens, WR PIT
Team three already has three wide receivers and hasn’t taken a running back or a tight end yet. But, this team is being built to win in 2025 and beyond, and George Pickens gives that team the best chance to do just that. The starting lineup for this team in 2024 does not matter. The goal is to take young and ascending players who will grow in value over this season. Pickens could be this team’s flex in the future, or he could be used to trade for help at running back and tight end once this team is ready to win.
Mid (Team Two) : Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR SEA
Smith-Njigba has become an outstanding value in startup dynasty drafts after his horrible rookie season in Seattle. JSN managers were hoping Tyler Lockett would move on by now, but he signed an extension with the Seahawks this offseason. Eventually, he’ll see his talent start to subside and Smith-Njigba will form a dangerous WR tandem with DK Metcalf. It could even happen early in this season.
Late (Team One) : Brian Thomas, WR JAX
At this point in ADP, we start to see more and more veteran options available at the top of the board. We’re letting other managers take those players, because they’re trying to win this season. Team one will take a shot on rookie Brian Thomas out of LSU. Thomas was a first-round pick, but the hype has not been there so far for him. He was second-fiddle on his own college team behind Nabers, and could struggle to take targets away from Christian Kirk and Evan Engram. By his second and third seasons, Trevor Lawrence will love getting the ball to Thomas.
Seventh Round
Early (Team One): Bryce Young, QB CAR
Team one is the first team in this group to take a third quarterback, but they get a great value with Bryce Young in the seventh round. One year removed from being the number one overall pick in the NFL Draft and superflex rookie drafts, Young has slipped down to QB24, even in superflex leagues. Dave Canales will need to prove that he truly is the QB whisperer if he wants to turn Young’s career around.
Mid (Team Two) : Trey Benson, RB ARI
Team two takes their first running back in rookie Trey Benson in the seventh round. Benson is another player that has a problem for 2024, but should see his fantasy value skyrocket in 2025 and beyond. Benson will likely play behind James Conner for this season, but he’s the heir apparent to a bellcow role in Phoenix.
Late (Team Three) : James Cook, RB BUF
Team three also takes their first running back in this round. Cook is 24 years-old, and had his best fantasy season in 2024. Ray Davis could threaten Cook’s volume and goal-line work, but he’s never been a touchdown producer anyway. The Bills will need to lean on the run some more with Diggs and Davis gone, so Cook should be a good bet to still have plenty of value in 2025.
Eighth Round
Early (Team Three) : Ladd McConkey, WR LAC
McConkey just barely fell out of the first-round of the NFL Draft. The Chargers took advantage and traded up to take him at pick 34. Keenan Allen has moved on, leaving a massive hole in the Chargers wide receiver room. McConkey could be a PPR monster for his fantasy managers.
Mid (Team Two) : Rashee Rice, WR KC
Rice fits in this draft strategy perfectly. He was the WR27 last season in his rookie year, and is catching passes from the best quarterback in the NFL. His ADP is down at WR36 because of the car accident he was involved in this off-season. A suspension could be coming this season, but that doesn’t matter for a productive struggle drafter. Team two gets a great value in Rice here.
Late (Team One) : Christian Watson, WR GB
If Watson truly has his hamstring issues figured out, then he’s a great value here in the eighth round. He missed a lot of time last season, but when he was on the field, Jordan Love found a new favorite target. Jayden Reed is going above Watson, but he may end up being the most valuable wide receiver in Green Bay for dynasty.
Ninth Round
Early (Team One) : Tyjae Spears, RB TEN
Tyjae Spears showed plenty of juice last season playing behind Derrick Henry. Dynasty managers were excited to see Henry leave town, but the team decided to bring in Tony Pollard to split backfield work with Spears. Based on the tape last season, Spears is the better option in this running back room. He’s 23 years-old and, by the time this team is ready to compete, may have separated himself from Pollard for the lead role.
Mid (Team Two) : Ricky Pearsall, WR SF
It’s a bit shocking to get a first-round rookie wide receiver in the ninth round of a dynasty superflex startup draft. Pearsall was a shocking first round pick, and goes to a team that is already loaded at wide receiver, for now. We all know Brandon Aiyuk is unhappy with his contract situation, and it’s unlikely that he’ll still be on this team in 2025. Pearsall in a Kyle Shannahan offense will be a problem for fantasy managers going up against him.
Late (Team Three) : Blake Corum, RB LAR
Kyren Williams was the dynasty darling of the 2023 season. He did absolutely nothing in his rookie season before breaking out and having a massive 2023. And yet, the Rams used a third-round pick on Blake Corum in the NFL Draft. Corum is a better running back than Williams, and should take over the lead role in this backfield by 2025 if he’s given the chance.
Tenth Round
Early (Team Three): Daniel Jones, QB NYG
Team three has Kyler Murray and Drake Maye already, but they take a third quarterback here in Daniel Jones. The quarterbacks are starting to dry up, so this team takes a lottery ticket in Daniel Jones. He will be playing for his job this season with Malik Nabers playing on the outside. If he returns to his 2022 form, then this lottery pick will pay off in dividends for team three. They could also choose to trade Jones in the season for a haul of future rookie picks.
Mid (Team Two) : MarShawn Lloyd, RB GB
Reports out of Packers camp are that Lloys is going to play a large role in this offense. Josh Jacobs is the lead back, but he signed a unique four-year deal with the Packers. Essentially, the team will have an easy out after each year of the contract. If Lloyd proves to be worth it, teh Packers could let Jacobs walk away and lean on the cheaper option in MarShawn Lloyd. I love this pick for this type of strategy.
Late (Team One): Jameson Williams, WR DET
The noise out of Lions camp has been extremely loud for Jameson Williams. After a tumultuous start to his career, he has reportedly turned it around and looks like a different player in camp this year. The Lions need a wide receiver to step up opposite of Amon-Ra St. Brown. The former first-round pick could be an incredible value for 2025 and beyond at the end of the tenth round.
11th Round
Early (Team One) : Ben Sinnott, TE WAS
Team one is finally the first team in this exercise to take a tight end. That isn’t to say that you should avoid the position if you are building a productive struggle team. Sam LaPorta, Kyle Pitts, Dalton Kincaid and several other top 12 tight ends would be great picks for this exercise. It just didn’t work out that way for these teams. Sinnott could have a slow start to his career playing with a rookie quarterback behind Zach Ertz, but he has a bright future in DC.
Mid (Team Two) : Luke Musgrave, TE GB
Team two finally takes their tight end with Luke Musgrave. The Packers are absolutely loaded with pass-catching options, including Tucker Kraft at the tight end position. Musgrave was drafted earlier in the same draft class as Kraft and was one of my favorite players of that class. Musgrave struggled with injuries last season, so he’ll need to stay on the field to be worth this pick.
Late (Team Three):Cole Kmet, TE CHI
Cole Kmet is still only 25 years old, only a year older than Ben Sinnott. Kmet isn’t an exciting pick, but team three hasn’t taken a tight end yet, and Kmet has the best chance to have value in 2025 and beyond.
12th Round
Early (Team Three): Jaylen Wright, RB MIA
Jaylen Wright won’t see the field very often in his rookie season in Miami. Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane are coming off two outstanding seasons, so they’ll get the majority of the touches. Mostert is well over the hill, and could be ready to retire after this season. Wright is one of the fastest backs in this draft class and will fit in perfectly to Mike McDaniel’s offensive system.
Mid (Team Two) : Justin Fields, QB PIT
Fields is in a quarterback battle with Russell Wilson for this season, but this season doesn’t matter for this dynasty build. He isn’t’ necessarily guaranteed the job in 2025, but he certainly has more juice than Wilson and he’s the younger option. Fields also has the option to test free agency after this season, so he could find himself as the starter for a new team. With this pick, all three of these teams have three quarterbacks for their superflex build.
Late (Team One) : Chase Brown, RB CIN
Brown flashed a lot of potential at the end of last season in Cincinnati. This year, with Joe Mixon gone, he’ll compete for touches with Zack Moss. Brown may already be the leader of that committee based on training camp reports. Moss signed a two year contract with the Bengals, but if Brown outplays him this year, he may not see the second year of that contract.
Team One
QB Josh Allen
WR Puka Nacua
WR Malik Nabers
QB JJ McCarthy
RB Jonathon Brooks
WR Brian Thomas
QB Bryce Young
WR Christian Watson
RB Tyjae Spears
WR Jameson Williams
TE Ben Sinnott
RB Chase Brown
Team Two
QB Anthony Richardson
QB Jayden Daniels
WR Jaylen Waddle
WR Rome Odunze
WR DJ Moore
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba
RB Trey Benson
WR Rashee Rice
WR Ricky Pearsall
RB MarShawn Lloyd
TE Luke Musgrave
QB Justin Fields
Team Three
QB Kyler Murray
WR Marvin Harrison Jr.
WR Drake London
QB Drake Maye
WR Tee Higgins
WR George Pickens
RB James Cook
WR Ladd McConkey
RB Blake Corum
QB Daniel Jones
TE Cole Kmet
RB Jaylen Wright
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