Tactical Transactions: Dynasty Moves to Make Before Week 14
The NFL granted us a quick reprieve from bye weeks in week 13, before hitting us with another gauntlet in week 14. Six teams are once again on bye in this critical fantasy football week, often the final week of the fantasy football regular season. So while fantasy teams are jockeying for playoff spots and seeding, they’ll be without players like Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, Courtland Sutton, Joe Mixon, Jonathan Taylor and Drake Maye.
It’s a great opportunity for an eliminated team to target teams on the bubble and go after their pieces for the future. Jonathon Brooks, Trey Benson or Ricky Pearsall aren’t going to help these teams earn a playoff spot. You can even target injured players, such as Brandon Aiyuk, Chris Olave or Rashee Rice. Teams are desperate right now to make the playoffs, so now is the time to strike!
Disclaimer! As you’re well aware by the fact you’ve come to a website entitled dynastyleaguefootball.com, we’re still taking a long view into account in addition to each player’s weekly (and year-to-date) output. Guidance will continue to take into account a player’s current stature in tools such as DLF’s ADP and rankings, in addition to how he’s performed.
One last note: as I’m referencing DLF ADP and rankings, advice herein is for a 12-team, non-superflex setting with full PPR scoring. Divergent league settings (both for starting positions and scoring) hopefully shouldn’t render this advice as not actionable, but it’s an important disclaimer nonetheless.
With that preamble in hand, here are the tactical transactions you should consider before week 14:
Sell (Contending Teams)
Bryce Young, QB CAR
Week 13 Line: 26/46 298 Yds 1TD; 1/17 1TD Rushing
The dynasty narrative surrounding Bryce Young has completely flipped since he has returned from his benching. In four-point passing touchdown leagues, he’s been over 12 points in all but one week since returning. He hasn’t thrown an interception since week nine and he had his best fantasy performance of the season in week 13, scoring 23.62 points.
DLF Rankings History for Bryce Young through November 2024.
Young’s dynasty value hit an all-time low in November, nearly falling out of the top 200. His ADP was even lower, at 233 overall. A contending team with Young on it appeared to be stuck with a toxic asset that nobody would want.
Now that he’s appeared to turn his season, and his career, around, now is the time to strike for dynasty managers. While it is possible that this benching magically fixed him, it’s more likely that the player we saw for a season-and-a-half in Carolina is who Young is. A contending manager could try to market his rebound as a sign of things to come for Young in Carolina and get a quarterback piece for the playoff push, especially in superflex leagues. Sam Darnold or Russell Wilson are two quarterbacks who would be considered sizable upgrades over Young for the 2024 playoffs that can likely be easily acquired for Young.
Buy (All Teams/Lean Rebuilding)
Breece Hall, RB NYJ
Week 13 Line: 12/60, Fumble Lost
Hall’s horrible fantasy football season continued with his worst performance since week four, scoring only six points in a PPR. His week was even worse if you lose points for fumbles, he had two of them and lost one. Even more confusing was his work in the passing game. Hall was held without a catch for the first time this season, and the first time since week two of the 2023 season.
He was still active in the passing game, running a route on 88% of the pass plays he was on the field for. He ran 22 routes, about the same as his average over the last several weeks, but he only had one target and he dropped that target. Drops have been an issue for him this season, he has five already and has dropped 20.8% of his targets, by far the most in his career.
Breece Hall’s Dynasty ADP through November 2024.
Hall’s ADP has hit a low point for this season at 12.5 overall. That number is likely to drop once again when the December numbers come out later this month. It’s an attacking opportunity for Hall for two reasons. For contenders, the Jets have an outstanding schedule for running backs in the fantasy football playoffs. They’ll face off against the Jaguars, Rams and Bills. Those teams are second, tenth and seventh in fantasy points per game allowed to running backs, all of them giving up at least 19.5 points per game. The Jets will need to lean on the rushing game in those matchups, and Hall is still their best weapon. For rebuilding teams, it’s clear that Hall needs a change of scenery, and he’ll get that this off-season. A new head coach and hopefully a new quarterback will lean on Hall’s talents while they’re getting their feet wet.
Buy (Rebuilding)
Brian Thomas Jr, WR JAC
Week 13 Line: 4/76/1 (10 targets)
In his first game back from an extended shoulder injury, Trevor Lawrence was knocked out of the game Sunday by a dirty hit. This was a head injury, which can be very hard to project, but it’s possible that he’ll miss time, or maybe even be shut down for the season. The Jaguars are no longer playing for anything and should keep their franchise quarterback healthy for next season (assuming he is still the franchise quarterback).
Even though he had a decent game on Sunday with him, Mac Jones means bad news for Brian Thomas Jr. and the rest of the Jaguars passing game. As described in the opening of this piece, now is the time to target the players on contending teams that will not help them win a championship or earn a playoff spot in 2024. Thomas is an obvious buy in this situation.
Dynasty ADP Comparison for Brian Thomas Jr. and Malik Nabers through November 2024.
Thomas has perhaps had the most impressive rookie season of all of the wide receivers this year. Malik Nabers earned headlines, especially early on, and Marvin Harrison has flashed at times, but Thomas has been the one who has most consistently outperformed his rookie draft ADP. Through 12 games, Thomas is the WR24 on the season in fantasy points per game, averaging 13.8. Nabers is the WR8 with 16.7, but he’s missed some time so they’re basically even in total fantasy points. He remains cheaper than Nabers, but just barely in dynasty startup drafts. Rebuilding teams should try to use this Laurence injury to their advantage and try to get a discount on Thomas.
Sell (All Teams/Especially Rebuilding)
Mark Andrews, TE BAL
Week 13 Line: 6/67/1 (7 Targets)
It has been a roller-coaster season for Mark Andrews. After he put up two straight games with zero fantasy points in weeks three and four, the panic was absolutely palpable. But, since week six, he’s gone over double-digit fantasy points and scored a touchdown in all but two games. He’s returned to being one of Lamar Jackson’s favorite red zone targets, and, after all of the panic, he’s the TE9 on the season. With that being said, now is the perfect time to sell on Andrews and avoid the headache for future seasons.
Andrews has been completely touchdown-dependent this season. Many tight ends are touchdown-dependent, but most of them are not considered TE1s by the dynasty community. In games where Andrews hasn’t caught a touchdown, he has no double-digit PPR games and has eclipsed nine points twice (in seven possible games). He now has seven touchdowns on the season, trailing only George Kittle at the position. Kittle has seven more receptions and 159 more yards in three fewer games than Andrews.
ADP History for Mark Andrews through November 2024.
Andrews has seen a significant bounceback in dynasty value after it plummeted down to 114 in October. He’s back into the top 100 and, with another good game in week 13, that number should continue to rise into December. At 29 years old, with a more talented tight end behind him in Isaiah Likely, now may be the last chance you have to sell Andrews for some value, especially to a team that is competing this season.
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