Past/Present/Future Rookie Pick Value: 2023 Early 2nd
Rookie draft season is fast approaching! Everyone wants in on this exciting 2023 rookie class, whether your team is contending or rebuilding.
In this series, the DLF team will look at the rookie draft in groups of four to give a comprehensive view of those picks. We’ll do this by analyzing consensus picks of the past, the potential options for this year, and what the picks are worth on the trade market. For this series, we’ll be focusing on superflex formats. Let’s jump into it!
Historical Consensus Picks 13-16
2022
- 2.01 – Jahan Dotson, WR WAS
- 2.02 – David Bell, WR CLE
- 2.03 – Rachaad White, RB TB
- 2.04 – Malik Willis, QB TEN
2021
- 2.01 – Rashod Bateman, WR BAL
- 2.02 – Elijah Moore, WR NYJ
- 2.03 – Trey Sermon, RB SF/PHI
- 2.04 – Terrace Marshall, WR CAR
2020
- 2.01 – Ke’Shawn Vaughn, RB TB
- 2.02 – Henry Ruggs, WR LV
- 2.03 – Denzel Mims, WR NYJ
- 2.04 – Tee Higgins, WR CIN
This four-pick group has a wide range of dynasty assets, ranging from total busts like Trey Sermon, Ke’Shawn Vaughn, and Denzel Mims to studs like Tee Higgins. However, those players represent the exception, as most of the players are either still up in the air or had some flashes. Jahan Dotson, Rachaad White, Elijah Moore, and Rashod Bateman all are currently inside the top 100 in DLF ADP. Additionally, Henry Ruggs hurt the overall value of this group, as he had similar value to those previous four middling players before his off-field issues ended his NFL career.
Overall, though, this draft range isn’t appealing at its cost. Only Higgins has gained significant value compared to his draft price. In my eyes, Dotson and White are worth slightly more, and Moore and Bateman have lost a bit of value. None of the other seven players are worth more than a mid-third rounder.
2023 Potential Options
- Michael Mayer, TE Notre Dame
- Sean Tucker, RB Syracuse
- Josh Downs, WR North Carolina
- Devon Achane, RB Texas A&M
- Zach Charbonnet, RB UCLA
- Kayshon Boutte, WR LSU
- Tank Bigsby, RB Auburn
- Zay Flowers, WR Boston College
- Kendre Miller, RB TCU
- Jalin Hyatt, WR Tennessee
Honestly, it’s almost impossible to project who will fall into this exact pick range this far away from the NFL Draft. However, I find this draft class to be the deepest of the past four years. Additionally, I expect four quarterbacks to go in the first round in most superflex leagues, Bryce Young, CJ Stroud, Will Levis, and Anthony Richardson, which will push talent at other positions down the draft board.
All the listed players present upside, including a former WR1 candidate in Boutte and a stud TE in Mayer. Charbonnet, Tucker, and Bigsby are all high-profile running backs, and at least one of them will probably end up in the early second round. No matter how the NFL Draft and draft capital shake out, I expect to like the options in this value grouping.
Trade Value
Let’s use the DLF Trade Analyzer to explore potential trade options for each pick!
2.01
- Cam Akers, RB LAR
- Calvin Ridley, WR JAC
- Matthew Stafford, QB LAR
Interestingly, I have diverging opinions on these three assets for the 2.01 in a superflex dynasty league. I believe Matthew Stafford has a few years left as a starting quarterback, so I’d easily prefer him over the risk of the 2.01. However, I have little to no interest in Akers or Ridley anywhere near this price.
2.02
- Darnell Mooney, WR CHI
- Ezekiel Elliott, RB DAL
- Two random 2024 2nds
These assets are unappealing to me compared to the 2.02. I have zero faith in the rest of Elliott’s career, and Mooney is a secondary receiver in a run-first offense. As for the two random 2024 2nds, I believe the 2023 class is deeper than the 2024 class. I also typically find a drop-off around 16-19 players in a class, so I’d prefer to take the one higher-end asset.
2.03
- Brian Robinson, RB WAS
- Elijah Moore, WR NYJ
- Tyler Lockett, WR SEA
It’s interesting to see Moore comparable to the 2.03, as I feel like his horrific second-year performance dropped him farther down in value. I rarely trade this type of rookie capital for 30-year-olds like Lockett, so I’m not interested in him either. Robinson seems fair at this price, but I might try and squeeze a bit more, considering his strong end to the 2022 season.
2.04
- Dalton Schultz, TE DAL
- Wan’Dale Robinson, WR NYG
- Kadarius Toney, WR KC
I find it funny that both Robinson and Toney appear here, considering I wrote an article comparing them when they were teammates on the Giants. Ironically, I still have Robinson and Toney ranked back to back in my dynasty rankings, but I don’t believe either is worth anywhere near the 2.04. As for Schultz, he’s been productive, but his uncertain future makes him risky at this cost, especially in a non-TE premium league.
Dynasty Recommendations
Considering the outputs from the DLF Trade Analyzer, I would love to trade into the early second round of this year’s rookie draft. This rookie draft class is strong, and I can’t imagine I’m upset with whoever I pick from 2.01-2.04. Finally, I would try to trade up or into the early second round sooner rather than later. After the NFL Combine and as the NFL Draft approaches, your average dynasty manager will realize just how deep this year’s rookie class is, and they will hold onto their early second-rounders far tighter. Go and send out some offers now before that occurs.
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