Off-Season Mock Drafts: Where the Rookies Fit in Ahead of the 2025 NFL Draft
As the NFL draws nearer and the combine results are settled in everyone’s minds, this is always a good time to see where the dynasty community thinks the rookies fit in among the veterans. I pulled up DLF’s ADP from February, where we got to see where the rookies slot in among their soon-to-be peers in the NFL for the first time. It’s useful to gauge what value others place on the rookies, and you can revisit this post-NFL draft to see who moved up and down. It’s also useful as a trade tool as you get an idea of potential player values relative to one another as well. So let’s get into it.
Quarterbacks
I skipped over the QB1s, as there were no rookies among them. Cam Ward is the highest rookie and is currently a low-end QB2; not great, but also not a shock, considering this is widely viewed as a down rookie quarterback class.
While Ward was the lone top-24 rookie, we see several rookies in the QB3 range. Shedeur Sanders, Jaxson Dart, Jalen Milroe, and Will Howard are all currently QB3s. I could see Sanders and Dart possibly squeezing into the low-end QB2 range while Milroe and Howard fall out of QB3 entirely. As previously mentioned, this isn’t a great class, and I wouldn’t go out of my way to get any of the incoming signal callers on my rosters.
Top 48 Running Backs
Here we go! The good stuff. Where do the members of this highly-touted rookie running back class fit in among the vets? Not surprisingly, Ashton Jeanty is already an RB1. I was slightly surprised to see Omarion Hampton at RB16. I think he’s much closer to Jeanty than most, and he also gets first-round draft capital. If that turns out to be the case, I have to believe he will wind up within the top 12 at the position heading into the season.
Three other rookies are already considered RB2s, with Kaleb Johnson, TreVeyon Henderson, and Quinshon Judkins rounding out the group. I think all three of them go within the top 50 picks of the draft, maybe even the top 40. If that’s the case, and they land with teams desperately needing a true lead back, they will all slide up the board.
Only one rookie makes an appearance among the RB3s, and it’s Cam Skattebo. Meh. He could easily move up or down depending on when he gets selected and by whom.
The RB4s are an interesting group, as I think their ADPs are way off. Ollie Gordon is way too high. I suspect Dylan Sampson is way too low. Devin Neal could move all over the ADP charts, depending on what we see happen to him in the NFL draft.
Late Round Running Backs
The RB5 and RB6 range has some great values hiding in the shadows. I’ll work from the bottom up, as it’s borderline criminal that DJ Giddens is going this late. I can see him easily going 100 spots earlier in fantasy drafts following the NFL draft. I have him ahead of Skattebo. LeQuint Allen and Jaydon Blue will be very draft capital-dependent players.
Woody Marks’ age will scare off many dynasty folks, but he should be a steady PPR option for at least four seasons. It’s hard to expect anything from any running back past their first contract, so four years is fine for Marks. Bhayshul Tuten should be flying up the boards after his combine performance, there is no way he stays in the RB6 range for much longer. NFL teams surely took notice of him, as he is moving up their boards, too. He’ll probably be in the RB3/RB4 cusp come August.
The rookie RB5s were Damien Martinez and Trevor Etienne. That feels about right when you look at the names surrounding them. I can’t dream up any realistic scenario where they would move up more than 60 spots over the next four months, but I can see several veterans ahead of them falling quite a bit. Those combinations could bump both into high-end RB4 territory before the season kicks off.
Top 48 Wide Receivers
Three of last year’s rookie receivers are in the top 12, but this year’s receiver class is perceived as not being very great. Like the quarterbacks, you can see it reflected in the ADP. The rookie WR1, Tetairoa McMillan, is only WR18, a middle-of-the-pack WR2. We won’t see the rookie WR2 and WR3 until the tail end of the WR3 group.
Among the WR4s, we really only have Matthew Golden at WR41. I’m still not counting Travis Hunter among the receivers. Golden is fascinating, as there have been rumors that he could potentially be the first receiver taken in the NFL draft. In this case, he probably leapfrogs the entire group and ends up in the WR18 range, where we see McMillan now. With only four rookie receivers in the top 48 at the position, you’re seeing the perception of this year’s class. For comparison, we had nine rookies in the top 48 in March of last year.
Wide Receivers 49 Through 196
With so few rookies in the top 48, we should see many more of them in the 49-96 range. There are 10 rookies in the WR5-WR8 range. If a few of these players get better than expected draft capital, the names above them are no impediment to flying up in drafts.
Elic Ayomanor has many supporters. Looking at the three veterans directly above him, if he is selected in early round two, he could quickly jump ahead of Calvin Ridley, Jakobi Meyers, and Deebo Samuel. The same is true for Tre Harris, who is only two spots behind Elic Ayomanor.
We see three rookies among the WR6s: Isaiah Bond, Jalen Royals, and Xavier Restrepo. Royals will almost certainly be moving up. Bond might, too. Restrepo is a mystery to me. I have seen virtually nothing about him anywhere; he seems to be the class’ most forgotten man.
I don’t think Jayden Higgins or Savion Williams belong in the WR7 tier. Higgins is a stud and should be way higher. Williams is likely a boom-or-bust prospect. I find it very hard to rank those types of players and know where they should fit in. Maybe this is right, but we could be way off in either direction.
Wrapping up the wide receivers with the WR8 group, we have one player who should fall off the board entirely and a pair who should be significantly higher. Tez Johnson is short, underweight, and not fast. That is a terrible combination, even with strong performances in the agility and explosion drills. If we’re being honest, he might go undrafted. On the other hand, we’ve got Jack Bech and Jaylin Noel. Noel is a stud, and Bech is dripping with upside, too. I cannot imagine a world where they both climb at least 80 spots in ADP over the next couple of months. If you were lucky enough to draft early and were able to get them this late, congratulations.
Tight Ends
There are rookie tight ends at all levels this season. Tyler Warren is already TE5. Colston Loveland is already TE8. They’re both excellent prospects, but I think the dynasty community is getting a little carried away after back-to-back seasons of rookie tight ends finishing as the top scorer at the position. Do they both belong in the top-12 conversation? Maybe. Should you expect them to be like most rookie tight ends and not like what we have seen from rookies lately? Probably, yes.
Seeing two rookies already in the top 12 was a little surprising, but I was more shocked by what I saw in the TE2 range. Harold Fannin Jr is TE15, which is fair, but it seems people are slowly becoming less enamored with him as we get closer to the NFL draft. Elijah Arroyo at TE24 caught my eye. I’m open to it if he is selected by a team with a good offense that features the tight end in their system, with nobody currently on the roster able to fill the spot. However, now, pre-draft when we know nothing, that ADP seems ridiculous. There are at least five (maybe as many as 12) tight ends currently behind Arroyo that I would take before him in a draft today.
Mason Taylor is slightly undervalued at TE26, and Oronde Gadsden shouldn’t be in the top 36. I was blown away by some of the names not in the top 36 more than the rookies within it. Dalton Schultz is TE38, and Brenton Strange is TE39 (but I suspect his ADP will be rocketing upwards shortly). Seattle teammates AJ Barner and Noah Fant are TE40 and TE41, respectively. No matter how he is used. Taysom Hill finds a way to touches and fantasy points, so TE43 feels out of whack. As of this writing, free agent Tyler Conklin is still seeking a new team. Even so, TE44 is much too low for someone averaging a 57-553-2.5 stat line over the last four seasons and is worse when you look at some of the names ahead of him.
I almost never draft rookies in startup drafts- mock or real life, especially before I see their draft capital and landing spots. You can begin to see some rookies who look like values and others who are already grossly overdrafted once the mock draft data is released, and you can see where the rooks fall among the vets. You can use this information to gauge player values, as well as the value of draft picks and devy players you have rostered before they come in as rookies. It is also worth keeping an eye on the evolving ADP. Compare where the rookies and veterans are in February with where they are in August to see who the risers and fallers are in the eyes of drafters and try to make some trades if you think the market isn’t priced correctly. Hopefully, this look at early returns on rookie ADP in the current fantasy landscape was helpful to you.
- A Hater’s Guide to the 2025 Rookie Tight End Class - May 22, 2025
- A Hater’s Guide to the 2025 Rookie Wide Receiver Class - May 19, 2025
- Off-Season Mock Drafts: Best Ball ADP - May 17, 2025
As the NFL draws nearer and the combine results are settled in everyone’s minds, this is always a good time to see where the dynasty community thinks the rookies fit in among the veterans. I pulled up DLF’s ADP from February, where we got to see where the rookies slot in among their soon-to-be peers in the NFL for the first time. It’s useful to gauge what value others place on the rookies, and you can revisit this post-NFL draft to see who moved up and down. It’s also useful as a trade tool as you get an idea of potential player values relative to one another as well. So let’s get into it.
Quarterbacks
I skipped over the QB1s, as there were no rookies among them. Cam Ward is the highest rookie and is currently a low-end QB2; not great, but also not a shock, considering this is widely viewed as a down rookie quarterback class.
While Ward was the lone top-24 rookie, we see several rookies in the QB3 range. Shedeur Sanders, Jaxson Dart, Jalen Milroe, and Will Howard are all currently QB3s. I could see Sanders and Dart possibly squeezing into the low-end QB2 range while Milroe and Howard fall out of QB3 entirely. As previously mentioned, this isn’t a great class, and I wouldn’t go out of my way to get any of the incoming signal callers on my rosters.
Top 48 Running Backs
Here we go! The good stuff. Where do the members of this highly-touted rookie running back class fit in among the vets? Not surprisingly, Ashton Jeanty is already an RB1. I was slightly surprised to see Omarion Hampton at RB16. I think he’s much closer to Jeanty than most, and he also gets first-round draft capital. If that turns out to be the case, I have to believe he will wind up within the top 12 at the position heading into the season.
Three other rookies are already considered RB2s, with Kaleb Johnson, TreVeyon Henderson, and Quinshon Judkins rounding out the group. I think all three of them go within the top 50 picks of the draft, maybe even the top 40. If that’s the case, and they land with teams desperately needing a true lead back, they will all slide up the board.
Only one rookie makes an appearance among the RB3s, and it’s Cam Skattebo. Meh. He could easily move up or down depending on when he gets selected and by whom.
The RB4s are an interesting group, as I think their ADPs are way off. Ollie Gordon is way too high. I suspect Dylan Sampson is way too low. Devin Neal could move all over the ADP charts, depending on what we see happen to him in the NFL draft.
Late Round Running Backs
The RB5 and RB6 range has some great values hiding in the shadows. I’ll work from the bottom up, as it’s borderline criminal that DJ Giddens is going this late. I can see him easily going 100 spots earlier in fantasy drafts following the NFL draft. I have him ahead of Skattebo. LeQuint Allen and Jaydon Blue will be very draft capital-dependent players.
Woody Marks’ age will scare off many dynasty folks, but he should be a steady PPR option for at least four seasons. It’s hard to expect anything from any running back past their first contract, so four years is fine for Marks. Bhayshul Tuten should be flying up the boards after his combine performance, there is no way he stays in the RB6 range for much longer. NFL teams surely took notice of him, as he is moving up their boards, too. He’ll probably be in the RB3/RB4 cusp come August.
The rookie RB5s were Damien Martinez and Trevor Etienne. That feels about right when you look at the names surrounding them. I can’t dream up any realistic scenario where they would move up more than 60 spots over the next four months, but I can see several veterans ahead of them falling quite a bit. Those combinations could bump both into high-end RB4 territory before the season kicks off.
Top 48 Wide Receivers
Three of last year’s rookie receivers are in the top 12, but this year’s receiver class is perceived as not being very great. Like the quarterbacks, you can see it reflected in the ADP. The rookie WR1, Tetairoa McMillan, is only WR18, a middle-of-the-pack WR2. We won’t see the rookie WR2 and WR3 until the tail end of the WR3 group.
Among the WR4s, we really only have Matthew Golden at WR41. I’m still not counting Travis Hunter among the receivers. Golden is fascinating, as there have been rumors that he could potentially be the first receiver taken in the NFL draft. In this case, he probably leapfrogs the entire group and ends up in the WR18 range, where we see McMillan now. With only four rookie receivers in the top 48 at the position, you’re seeing the perception of this year’s class. For comparison, we had nine rookies in the top 48 in March of last year.
Wide Receivers 49 Through 196
With so few rookies in the top 48, we should see many more of them in the 49-96 range. There are 10 rookies in the WR5-WR8 range. If a few of these players get better than expected draft capital, the names above them are no impediment to flying up in drafts.
Elic Ayomanor has many supporters. Looking at the three veterans directly above him, if he is selected in early round two, he could quickly jump ahead of Calvin Ridley, Jakobi Meyers, and Deebo Samuel. The same is true for Tre Harris, who is only two spots behind Elic Ayomanor.
We see three rookies among the WR6s: Isaiah Bond, Jalen Royals, and Xavier Restrepo. Royals will almost certainly be moving up. Bond might, too. Restrepo is a mystery to me. I have seen virtually nothing about him anywhere; he seems to be the class’ most forgotten man.
I don’t think Jayden Higgins or Savion Williams belong in the WR7 tier. Higgins is a stud and should be way higher. Williams is likely a boom-or-bust prospect. I find it very hard to rank those types of players and know where they should fit in. Maybe this is right, but we could be way off in either direction.
Wrapping up the wide receivers with the WR8 group, we have one player who should fall off the board entirely and a pair who should be significantly higher. Tez Johnson is short, underweight, and not fast. That is a terrible combination, even with strong performances in the agility and explosion drills. If we’re being honest, he might go undrafted. On the other hand, we’ve got Jack Bech and Jaylin Noel. Noel is a stud, and Bech is dripping with upside, too. I cannot imagine a world where they both climb at least 80 spots in ADP over the next couple of months. If you were lucky enough to draft early and were able to get them this late, congratulations.
Tight Ends
There are rookie tight ends at all levels this season. Tyler Warren is already TE5. Colston Loveland is already TE8. They’re both excellent prospects, but I think the dynasty community is getting a little carried away after back-to-back seasons of rookie tight ends finishing as the top scorer at the position. Do they both belong in the top-12 conversation? Maybe. Should you expect them to be like most rookie tight ends and not like what we have seen from rookies lately? Probably, yes.
Seeing two rookies already in the top 12 was a little surprising, but I was more shocked by what I saw in the TE2 range. Harold Fannin Jr is TE15, which is fair, but it seems people are slowly becoming less enamored with him as we get closer to the NFL draft. Elijah Arroyo at TE24 caught my eye. I’m open to it if he is selected by a team with a good offense that features the tight end in their system, with nobody currently on the roster able to fill the spot. However, now, pre-draft when we know nothing, that ADP seems ridiculous. There are at least five (maybe as many as 12) tight ends currently behind Arroyo that I would take before him in a draft today.
Mason Taylor is slightly undervalued at TE26, and Oronde Gadsden shouldn’t be in the top 36. I was blown away by some of the names not in the top 36 more than the rookies within it. Dalton Schultz is TE38, and Brenton Strange is TE39 (but I suspect his ADP will be rocketing upwards shortly). Seattle teammates AJ Barner and Noah Fant are TE40 and TE41, respectively. No matter how he is used. Taysom Hill finds a way to touches and fantasy points, so TE43 feels out of whack. As of this writing, free agent Tyler Conklin is still seeking a new team. Even so, TE44 is much too low for someone averaging a 57-553-2.5 stat line over the last four seasons and is worse when you look at some of the names ahead of him.
I almost never draft rookies in startup drafts- mock or real life, especially before I see their draft capital and landing spots. You can begin to see some rookies who look like values and others who are already grossly overdrafted once the mock draft data is released, and you can see where the rooks fall among the vets. You can use this information to gauge player values, as well as the value of draft picks and devy players you have rostered before they come in as rookies. It is also worth keeping an eye on the evolving ADP. Compare where the rookies and veterans are in February with where they are in August to see who the risers and fallers are in the eyes of drafters and try to make some trades if you think the market isn’t priced correctly. Hopefully, this look at early returns on rookie ADP in the current fantasy landscape was helpful to you.
- A Hater’s Guide to the 2025 Rookie Tight End Class - May 22, 2025
- A Hater’s Guide to the 2025 Rookie Wide Receiver Class - May 19, 2025
- Off-Season Mock Drafts: Best Ball ADP - May 17, 2025
