Dynasty Fantasy Football Battle: Kadarius Toney vs Wan’Dale Robinson

One of my favorite situations in dynasty fantasy football is when there are two similarly valued players on the same team at the same position. So often, each player has his supporters in the dynasty community, and there’s a debate about which player should carry more value. I want to examine a few of these situations, breaking them down from statistical, ADP/trade value, and future situation angles. I did this series last year, so if you want to get an idea of what these articles are like, I provided the links at the bottom of this page.

This year, I brought the series back, starting with an article on Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill comparing two high-end assets on the Dolphins. But now, I want to look at two more speculative players: Giants’ wide receivers Kadarius Toney and Wan’Dale Robinson. Let’s jump into it!

Statistical Duel

Robinson has no NFL stats yet, but he has an intriguing college profile.

Chart courtesy of Sports Reference CFB.

He started his college career splitting work as a receiver and a rusher in 2019 at Nebraska. Unfortunately, he failed to display much rushing efficiency, averaging only 3.9 YPC. But, his usage was extremely impressive, especially for a true freshman.

Then in 2020, Robinson became more of a receiver, adding 11 receptions in two fewer games. He did see fewer carries, but he averaged 5.2 YPC. After 2020, he chose to transfer to Kentucky, where he became their leading receiver. Quarterback Will Levis led a solid offense, and Robinson had the most receptions, yards, and touchdowns on the team by a wide margin. After his excellent 2021 campaign, Robinson declared for the NFL Draft, entering as a 21-year-old prospect.

The Giants selected him with the 43rd overall pick in the second round, giving him solid draft capital. They may have considered his impressive metrics profile and ridiculous college market share numbers.

Chart courtesy of DLF College Market Share App.

As you can see, he finished well above the regression line in 2020 and 2021, including an otherworldly 45.48% market share of receiving yards in 2021. Robinson’s main red flag is his smaller stature, as he measured in at 5-foot-8 and only 178 pounds. But outside of his size, he’s an excellent prospect.

In contrast, Toney had an interesting rookie year with the Giants in 2021.

Chart courtesy of Pro Football Reference.

Just looking at the raw numbers, 39 receptions on 57 targets for 420 yards and no touchdowns is not an impressive rookie stat line. However, he only played ten games, and he played minimal snaps in three of those contests. Outside of a few games, Toney was not a usable fantasy asset.

Chart courtesy of DLF Player Scoring History App.

He scored 29.6 PPR points in week five, accounting for over a third of his entire 2021 fantasy production. Additionally, he had 13.9 PPR points in week four and 11 in week 11, representing the only three games he had more than 7.36 PPR points. While it’s nice that he displayed massive upside once in his rookie season, it’s tough to give him too much credit. He struggled to stay on the field due to multiple injuries, and he also found himself out of favor with the Giants’ coaching staff at times.

Even though Toney only had a few good games in 2021, I still believe his rookie year helped his dynasty value. Dynasty managers thought almost nothing of Toney as a prospect, even though he was a first-round pick. Multiple second-round wide receivers and a fourth-round running back all went ahead of Toney in May 2021’s DLF rookie ADP.

ADP Comparison

Right now, Toney is WR51 and 98 overall in DLF’s ADP, while Robinson comes in at WR63 and 126.5 overall. Of course, Robinson just entered the NFL, so it’s difficult to evaluate his ADP over time, but we can look at the last few months at least.

Chart courtesy of DLF ADP Over Time App.

Robinson gained some value after the NFL Draft, likely because of his better-than-expected draft capital. In contrast, Toney fell about ten spots after maintaining consistent value from February to April. Toney’s fall likely had two contributing factors. There were trade rumors surrounding him around the NFL Draft, and most of the dynasty community didn’t expect the Giants to spend a top-two-round pick on a wide receiver.

The Future

Both Toney and Robinson face an uncertain future on the Giants. This off-season, the Giants fired their longtime general manager Dave Gettleman and their head coach Joe Judge, replacing them with Bills’ duo Joe Schoen and Brian Daboll. In addition, Gettleman brought in Toney and free-agent signing Kenny Golladay last off-season, who were supposed to be the Giants’ top two wide receivers long-term.

But now, the new regime decided that Golladay, Toney, Sterling Shepard, and Darius Slayton were not good enough. It’s unclear whether the Giants doubt Golladay, Toney, Shepard, or all three. Either way, it’s not a good sign that they immediately spent premium capital on another player at the position.

The Giants also lack any certainty at the quarterback position. They declined Daniel Jones’ fifth-year option for 2023, leaving him as a lame-duck starter this year. Tyrod Taylor is their only other quarterback, who is purely a backup option. While the Giants may be able to add a quarterback in the loaded 2023 NFL Draft, there’s no guarantee that they will have a top-five pick. Even bad NFL teams sometimes get lucky and win five or six games, as the Giants did in 2020. Hopefully, the Giants can turn their franchise around, but they’re one of the worst situations for fantasy wide receivers at the moment.

Conclusion

Typically, I favor the higher drafted player at the same position, especially if they’ve already had some success in the NFL. However, in this case, I’m going to go against that general rule. I don’t like how Toney failed to perform consistently during his rookie season, and I also have some concerns about all the negative smoke surrounding him in only one year in New York.

The new regime targeted Robinson in this year’s NFL Draft, so I’ll take my chances with him over Toney. I rank Robinson as my dynasty WR52, just two spots ahead of Toney at WR54. I’d love to draft Robinson at his current startup ADP, but I also suggest targeting him in trades. Here are some deals involving him using the DLF Trade Finder.

In each case, I’d easily prefer the Robinson side. The second and third deals are incredibly lopsided, as Robinson should not go for a package of fourth and fifth-round picks. While the first deal is relatively fair according to ADP, I still prefer Robinson’s upside over a 26-year-old running back in Rashaad Penny. There’s room to trade for Robinson right now in dynasty formats. I believe some dynasty managers drafted him in rookie drafts thinking that Toney would be traded, and they now want to move off him, opening a buying window.

2022 Entries: Jaylen Waddle vs Tyreek Hill

2021 Entries: Courtland Sutton vs Jerry Jeudy, Ronald Jones vs Leonard Fournette, Corey Davis vs Denzel Mims, Hunter Henry vs Jonnu Smith, Cooper Kupp vs Robert Woods