Rebuilding in Dynasty Fantasy Football: Buy Low Candidates
Is it that time already? We’ve reached the halfway point of the NFL season and are already beyond the halfway point of the fantasy football regular season. If you haven’t done so already, this is the time of year to take stock and reassess your rosters. Whether you’ve decided to move all your chips in and push for a deep playoff run or blow up your team and conduct a fire sale ahead of the off-season, there is always time to plan for next year and start eyeballing buy-low candidates. I’m going to look at players meeting certain specific criteria who I think can represent prime buy-low opportunities now and into the earlier part of the off-season.
The Injured
If you’re wrapping it up and calling it quits on the 2023 season, this is a great time to acquire injured players from contending teams. If someone lost, let’s say, Mike Williams earlier in the year and they need a receiver to make a run at a championship, you might be able to send them an older veteran and get Williams on the cheap.
JK Dobbins, RB BAL
The oft-injured running back has only played 24 games in three seasons, and many owners have had enough. He has looked good when he’s been on the field, but he hasn’t been on the field. Looking at the DLF Trade Finder Tool, you’ll find Dobbins has recently been traded straight up for DeAndre Hopkins, Brian Hoyer, and Elijah Mitchell. Dobbins will also be a free agent at the end of the season. Although a return to Baltimore would probably be ideal, there is a chance another team could bring him in as a feature back in 2024, and you’ll probably never be able to get him at a cheaper price.
Khalil Herbert, RB CHI
While only on short-term IR, Herbert still represents a buy-low value. I am an unapologetic Herbert fan, so take all this with a grain of salt, but he’s been perfect when given the work in the Bears’ backfield. He’s got one more year on his rookie deal and might find himself on a better team in 2025, or he could return to a Bears team with a different quarterback and head coach. There are many question marks, but at 25 years old, he seems worth the gamble. In recent trades, Herbert hasn’t been a “value” per se, but if he can reach his ceiling when he returns from injured reserve, the deals will look better in hindsight.
Nick Chubb, RB CLE
Nick Chubb is the best pure running back in football, and you’ll never convince me of anything otherwise. After suffering another horrific knee injury, his future is unknown, but I’m willing to roll the dice on Chubb. If he returns to form and catches a few more balls, he has a legit shot at being THE overall RB1 on the field. Very few players are in that category. If, when, and where are all big question marks now. A look at his contract via Spotrac, you’ll see the Browns have an out following this season, and if Chubb returns to Cleveland, he’s only under contract for one more year anyway.
While there are always concerns about running backs with significant knee injuries- and rightfully so- Chubb’s upside is so high that he’s worth the risk. Recent trades have seen Chubb go for players like Courtland Sutton, Demario Douglas, Logan Thomas, and Gus Edwards. I would insta-smash accept on any of those deals.
Hendon Hooker, QB DET
Many thought the former Heisman finalist had the potential to be selected in the first round of the NFL draft; however, due to an ACL injury and his age (25), Hooker fell in the draft. With what is essentially a red-shirt freshman season in the NFL, at some point, you’ve got to imagine the Lions kicking the tires on Hooker in 2024. Former first-overall pick Jared Goff has played great in the Motor City, but his contract expires after 2024, when he’ll be 31. Recent trades have seen Hooker traded straight up for Joshua Dobbs and packaged with a third-round pick for Mac Jones. If you’re playing for the future, both of those deals look good to me.
Mike Williams, WR LAC
While I think of Williams as injury-prone, in reality, he hasn’t missed too many games prior to this season. It appears he has only missed 13 games in the previous six seasons. Feel free to fact-check me, as my math is embarrassingly horrific, but I’m pretty sure that’s right. Despite having an out in his contract, Williams will likely return to the Chargers next season. As long as he is tied to Justin Herbert and the Chargers’ offense, he should continue to be productive for one more season before he becomes a 31-year-old free agent after 2024. Recent trades have seen Willimas acquired for as little as Taysom Hill and Mac Jones.
Kirk Cousins, QB MIN
Is there anyone more underrated than Kirk Cousins? In nine seasons as a starter, Cousins has eight seasons as a top-13 fantasy quarterback (I’m including this year through week eight, too). As another contract ends, who knows where we’ll see Cousins, who will be looking to add to his nearly quarter-of-a-billion-dollar career earnings. Achilles injuries are tricky, but we’ve seen more and more players successfully return in recent years. While typically, ideally, as a rebuilding team, you’re probably not looking at 35-year-old quarterbacks coming off of significant injuries, he might be a decent stop-gap if you’re not going to have an early draft pick in the draft to address your QB situation. The Trade Finder shows many, many deals involving Derek Carr, plus deals for Tank Dell, Chris Godwin, Gardner Minshew, and Jameson Williams.
The Underperformers
This time of year also represents an ideal time to target underperforming players, or what some commonly refer to as post-hype sleepers, who came into the season with high expectations and have thus far failed to live up to expectations. I won’t be going into great detail, but I’ll simply list players who aren’t living up to their ADP thus far in 2023.
Quarterbacks
Justin Fields, QB CHI
Fields was drafted as the QB7 coming into the season and, as of this writing, is QB19. A large part of that is a significant decrease in his rushing. A season ago, he nearly averaged 11 carries per game, and this year, he’s averaging only 7.8 rushing attempts per game. It may not be with the Bears, but he should be a starting quarterback somewhere next season. If you’re a believer (and I’ve never been), now might be the best time to try to acquire some shares of Fields.
Trevor Lawrence, QB JAX
Lawrence was selected right behind Fields during draft season as QB8 but has only managed to be QB14 halfway through the season. Few players have the pedigree as Lawrence coming into the NFL, and we’ve seen flashes of greatness from him on occasion, but he hasn’t been the second coming of Elway or Manning that many had predicted. As a result, some Lawrence owners might be souring on the generational prospect. Over the last month, the trade finder shows him being traded for as little as Christian Watson or a 2nd round pick.
© Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK
Bryce Young, QB CAR
Another first-overall quarterback, Young, hasn’t been so great in his NFL debut. Drafted as QB15, he’s disappointed fantasy managers with a QB27 showing thus far. This is exaggerated by the fact that No.2 pick C.J. Stroud has looked great en route to a QB17 showing so far with a 9:1 touchdown to interception ratio through seven games. However, if you believe in the Alabama product, he’s been moved for as little as Hollywood Brown plus a third and has been packaged with a fourth for Geno Smith and with a first for Diontae Johnson.
Running Backs
Javonte Williams, RB DEN
A season ago, Williams was one of the hottest commodities in dynasty leagues; a year or so later, that’s not the case. Looking at DLF’s ADP Over Time Tool, you’ll see he’s RB 6 in drafts following his rookie campaign and fell to RB15 in drafts heading into this season. The combination of injuries and a historic collapse of the team surrounding him have tanked his value.
At the start of last season, Williams was being traded for a first plus Garrett Wilson or with a third, a ninth, and a tenth for Christian McCaffrey. Now, Williams is going for Jerome Ford and a first or Tank Dell and a first. Not cheap, but much cheaper than a year ago.
Tony Pollard, RB DAL
What happened here? Pollard exploded on the scene a season ago, finishing as RB8, which was also where his ADP was heading into the 2023 season. However, through seven games, Pollard is only RB16 despite being on pace for a career-high 63 receptions. Honestly, looking through the Trade Finder, the poor showing thus far hasn’t impacted his value much, but I suspect if things keep trending in this direction, it will. I’m shocked his value hasn’t fallen more- maybe people forget how Mike McCarthy has ruined the fantasy viability of multiple NFL backs over his career.
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB NE
Stevenson finished 2022 as the RB7, and expectations were high for him and the Patriots offense, with Bill O’Brien resuming his role as the Pats’ OC following the departure of Matt Patricia. However, those expectations were short-lived as Stevenson was the RB24 through eight games, and the Patriots offense has averaged 284.8 yards per game and an abhorrent 14.8 points per game. Stevenson owners have responded by trading him for Treylon Burks, Kyren Williams, and as little as $35 in FAAB. Yuck. Next season, this offense can only go up from here, and Stevenson will be in a contract year as well.
Wide Receivers
Truthfully, there are not many wide receivers that fit this description thus far this season. There are a few players who fall into a category I’ll discuss later, but for the most part, the receivers have performed relatively as expected. If anything, many more “names” have overperformed so far as opposed to underperforming. This is especially true when you factor in the typical X-factors in dynasty ADP, like rookies being a tad overvalued and veterans being a tad undervalued, and omitting injured players.
For the most part, of the top 18 in ADP, for example, seven are in the top 18 in points scored this year, with four of the top 18 in ADP being injured at some point. Of the names popping into the top 18 in points scored, you’ve got some overlooked older vets like Keenan Allen, Adam Thielen, and Mike Evans. Then you sprinkle in a few surprises like Puka Nacua, Jordan Addison, Michael Pittman, and Christian Kirk, and there isn’t much room for underperformers among the guys you thought would have a good season.
Here are a few names you could possibly keep your eyes on:
Chris Godwin, WR TB
Amari Cooper, WR CLE
DK Metcalf, WR SEA
All three have been hot commodities in dynasty circles for years but are in the midst of down years relative to their ADP. Godwin was drafted as WR27 but is now WR35. Cooper was WR30 in ADP but is WR42, and Metcalf was WR15 on draft day and is now WR44. All three have been hurt by sub-par quarterback play this season and will likely see more competent play at the position next year, so there is a good chance their prices will not get much more depressed at any point in the future.
Tight Ends
Trey McBride, TE AZ
Although McBride was the top tight end prospect a year ago, he seems to have disappeared off the radar. Recent trades saw McBride swapped for Hayden Hurst and two-thirds, Cade Otton and a third. That’s dirt cheap for last year’s rookie TE1 in ADP. McBride will only have Zach Ertz to compete with for one more season- at the most, as there is a chance he will be released at the end of this season.
An Increase Around the Corner?
Sometimes, when and which player gets their big break at the NFL level is unpredictable. Think Tom Brady getting on the field because Mo Lewis crushed Drew Bledsoe’s insides. That’s an extreme case that literally changed the course of NFL history, but the point remains: sometimes, you never know who is the next man up in a situation like that. On the other hand, sometimes you can see these things coming in advance when things are a little more predictable.
Jaylen Warren, RB PIT
I’m not a huge film guy, and I don’t have the experience playing football that many analysts do, but it sure looks like Warren is a better running back than Najee Harris is. The numbers back this up, too. In the two seasons they’ve played together, Harris has averaged 3.8 yards per carry, while Warren has averaged 4.8 yards. Harris has caught 56 balls for 330 yards, while Warren has caught 57 receptions for 423 yards. Warren has also hauled in 83.8% of passes that came his way, while Harris has only pulled in 74.4% of balls thrown his direction. With both players becoming free agents after the 2024 season, the Steelers will have to decide on their futures- and the team’s future- and that is increasingly looking like Jaylen Warren. Considering the DLF Trade Finder shows multiple trades for Warren involving a second-round pick, that’s a great price for a potential starting running back.
Zach Charbonnet, RB SEA
When the Seahawks selected Charbonnet in the second round, many were under the impression that the clock was ticking on incumbent running back Kenneth Walker. Rather, Walker has out-snapped Charbonnet by more than a two-to-one basis. If trades are any indication, Charbonnet managers are starting to panic. He has been flipped for Tyjae Spears, Kareem Hunt, and a third-round pick, which are all great deals considering that he had a first-round ADP in rookie drafts just a few short months ago. Look, Seattle didn’t squander the 54th overall pick on Charbonnet to not have a plan for him. It might not be a near-term plan, but I suspect sooner rather than later, this will be his backfield.
© Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
Antonio Gibson, RB WAS
The 25-year-old Gibson is set to be a free agent following the season. The Commanders have criminally misused him, and he deserves better with another team. The former college wide receiver needs to find himself with a team who will use him as a receiver out of the backfield more, and less as a between-the-tackles grinder. Recent trades for Gibson have been Tyler Scott plus a fourth-round pick and a sixth-round pick- very palatable prices for someone who has the potential to be a PPR steal 12 months from now.
Isaiah Spiller, RB LAC
At the end of the season, Austin Ekeler and Josh Kelley will both be free agents. If neither returns to the Chargers, the door is wide open for the 22-year-old Spiller to get a crack at the starting job. Spiller has only gotten 30 carries and six targets over the course of his career, so who knows what he is capable of, but he was RB6 in rookie drafts a year ago, so dynasty managers had high hopes for him entering the league. The price to acquire him looks like some sort of third or fourth-round pick or adding those picks to him in exchange for Kareem Hunt.
Trey Palmer, WR TB
The former five-star recruit with 4.33 speed was originally an LSU Tiger. As a freshman, he was buried behind a couple of guys named Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, and Terrace Marshall Jr. As a sophomore, Marshall and Kayshon Boutte were blocking him. In his junior year, Boutte and Malik Nabers were ahead of him. So, as a senior, he transferred to Nebraska, where he led the Cornhuskers in receptions, yards, and touchdowns. Palmer is currently Tampa Bay’s WR3, but with Mike Evans looking like a 31-year-old free agent heading into 2024, there is an opportunity for Palmer to lock up a spot as the Buccaneers’ starting outside receiver with Chris Godwin coming out of the slot.
Andrei Iosivas, WR CIN
There is a reason the Bengals drafted Charlie Jones and Iosivas in last year’s draft. Tee Higgins, Trenton Irwin, and Tyler Boyd are all free agents at the end of the season, and it will be nearly impossible to bring them all back. If they pay Higgins his market value, there likely will be little room for their long-time slot receiver Boyd to return, opening the door for Iosivas, who has hauled in two touchdowns on only three receptions on the season. If he gains Joe Burrow‘s trust in the red zone, Iosivas might make it a smooth transition away from Boyd.
Khalil Shakir, WR BUF
Gabriel Davis and Trent Sherfield are both free agents, potentially opening the door for Shakir, who is slowly emerging in this Bills offense in this, his second season. His snap count has steadily increased all season, and he is third among Bills receivers in receptions, yardage, and touchdowns through eight games. Who knows what the Gabe Davis market will look like in the off-season, and the Bills might have to move on, leaving the 2022 fifth-round pick as the de facto WR2 in Buffalo for 2024.
Albert Okwuegbunam, TE PHI
Albert O is the ultimate dart throw. He would be a mismatch nightmare in the right system. Although we’ve seen a bit of a resurgence this year, tight ends have been trending down in recent fantasy seasons. It’s not hard to crack the top-15 in scoring at the position, and considering his current asking price is a fourth-round pick or $1 in FAAB (twice!), there’s essentially no risk at all to trying to grab him- assuming he’s not sitting on waivers in the first place.
Third Year Breakout
Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but sometimes, just sometimes, receivers take a little bit of time to adjust to the NFL. Oftentimes, they hit their stride in their third year. We’ve become so accustomed to star players exploding out of the gate as rookies that we forget they’re the exception, not the norm. We’re seeing it right now as the 2021 class begins their third season; Tutu Atwell, Josh Palmer, and Nico Collins are all putting on a show so far- and that’s not including the players whose star power and fantasy production has already been realized.
Omitting the known “stars” from the 2022 class who will be entering year three next year, there are several players to keep an eye on and target now (or in the off-season) while prices are reasonable. I would be looking to acquire the following players if someone is selling: Jameson Williams, Treylon Burks, Wan’Dale Robinson, John Metchie III, George Pickens, Alec Pierce, Skyy Moore, Jalen Tolbert, Khalil Shakir, Kyle Philips, Rashid Shaheed. Of that group, I really like Robinson, Tolbert, Shakir, and Phillips to be sneakier under-the-radar options, with plenty of opportunity ahead of them.
Hopefully, none of your leaguemates are reading this and making any of the above players harder to acquire than they should be. Every league is different, but for the most part, the results in the DLF Trade Finder Tool give you a decent idea of asking prices and what you should pay. Finding cheap players today who will become key pieces to your team tomorrow is one of the keys to building successful dynasty rosters. Unfortunately, some buy lows, stay low, but at least you never overpay for them. Swing for the fences, fill out the bottom of your rosters, and good luck in the playoffs (if that’s where you’re headed) or getting ready for 2023. Thanks for reading!
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