Weekly Matchups: Four Streaky WR Starters

Ryan McDowell

If you follow me on Twitter, you’ve probably noticed a series of tweets I share on a weekly basis regarding player and team defensive performances, all from a fantasy lens. I’m going to be sharing some of that same information with you here. I use this each week as I am making my own lineup and waiver wire decisions and thought you might find this valuable as well.

There are many players around the league that lack consistency. These players have shown off a high ceiling but also a scary floor that can cost fantasy managers a weekly win. It can be difficult to know when to trust these streaky players and big-play wide receivers are often the biggest culprits of this. In recent weeks, we’ve seen some big-time performances from these players, and thanks to a juicy matchup this week, I’d go right back to them again in Week Eleven.

Quentin Johnston, LAC

The former first-rounder Quentin Johnston was left for dynasty dead after a pitiful rookie season but he’s reminded us why he was so highly valued entering the NFL. Johnston has produced a pair of WR1 games this season and found the end zone last week against the tough Titans defense. This week, the Chargers face the Bengals, who have allowed 11 top-24 performances to receivers this year. The Chargers offense has opened up lately as they rely on Justin Herbert and the passing game. There’s also a good chance they fall behind the Bengals, forcing even more work from the passing game.

Courtland Sutton, DEN

Routinely failing to live up to expectations, Courtland Sutton’s game has opened up this season. With four top-24 performances already, Sutton is set up for another big week against the Falcons’ defense in Week 11. Atlanta has given up ten top-24 games through ten weeks and Sutton is the clear go-to guy for rookie Bo Nix and the Broncos. Thanks to Denver’s struggling running game, we may see even more from the Nix/Sutton combo against the Falcons’ explosive squad.

Calvin Ridley, TEN

Another defense that has allowed ten top-24 wideout performances so far this season is the Vikings. That’s Calvin Ridley’s foe in Week Eleven as he’s coming off his best game of the season. With DeAndre Hopkins gone from Tennessee, Ridley is the only show in town and he’s taken advantage. Ridley has posted a pair of top-five performances over the past two weeks and should eat up the Vikings’ defense.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling, NO

Okay, this one is a bit of a reach, but with bye weeks and injuries, some teams are desperate. With Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed out, the Saints passing game was also desperate. Last week, MVS shocked the world with three grabs for 109 yards and a pair of scores, finishing as the WR2 for the week. Valdes-Scantling has been known for his poor hands, but he made a pair of tough catches last week and now gets a plus matchup against the Browns, who have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to receivers. The Saints appear likely to have to stick with MVS, so fantasy managers can, too.

Note: The scoring system used is always PPR with four points for passing touchdowns and all stats and info are provided by Fantasy Data.

Quarterbacks

Week 10 QB1s

RankPlayerFantasy Points Last Week
QB1Joe Burrow, CIN33.70
QB2Lamar Jackson, BAL32.90
QB3Jalen Hurts, PHI29.70
QB4Kyler Murray, ARI28.70
QB5Brock Purdy, SF23.80
QB6Derek Carr, NO20.50
QB7Justin Herbert, LAC19.80
QB8Will Levis, TEN19.10
QB9Josh Allen, BUF18.20
QB10Russell Wilson, PIT18.10
QB11Patrick Mahomes, KC16.50
QB12Bo Nix, DEN16.10

Season-Long QB1s

RankPlayerFantasy Points This Season
QB1Lamar Jackson, BAL258.60
QB2Baker Mayfield, TB211.40
QB3Joe Burrow, CIN211.20
QB4Jalen Hurts, PHI206.80
QB5Josh Allen, BUF199.30
QB6Jayden Daniels, WAS190.30
QB7Kyler Murray, ARI179.40
QB8Brock Purdy, SF168.90
QB9Bo Nix, DEN166.90
QB10Kirk Cousins, ATL153.10
QB11Geno Smith, SEA151.70
QB12Trevor Lawrence, JAX145.00

Most QB1 Games This Season

QB1 GamesPlayers
9Lamar Jackson
8Jalen Hurts
7Baker Mayfield, Jayden Daniels, Joe Burrow
6Geno Smith, Josh Allen
5Bo Nix, Brock Purdy, Kyler Murray

Most QB1 Games Allowed

QB1 Games AllowedTeam DSTs
8JAX, TB
7BAL
6
5ATL, CAR, CLE, DAL, HOU, IND, LV, NYG, WAS
4CIN, KC, PHI, TEN
3ARI, DEN, GB, LAC, LAR, MIN, NYJ, SEA
2DET, MIA, NE, NO, SF
1BUF, CHI
0PIT

The Jaguars defense was actually impressive in intercepting Sam Darnold multiple times last week. Now, they are tied with Tampa Bay with eight QB1 games allowed. With the Bucs off, all eyes will be on the Jaguars, who face Jared Goff and the Lions’ explosive offense. The Ravens allowed a massive performance to Joe Burrow and the Bengals last week, and now face surprising Steelers starter Russell Wilson, who is worthy of a fantasy start this week.

Other quarterbacks with strong matchups this week include CJ Stroud (vs. DAL) and Justin Herbert (vs. CIN.)

The Steelers remain perfect this year, having not allowed a QB1 game this season. That will be put to the test this week against potential MVP Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. Bad matchup or not, there is no way to bench Jackson. The same could be said for a trio of other star signal callers with difficult matchups in Week Eleven. Patrick Mahomes (vs. BUF), Jordan Love (vs. CHI), and Jayden Daniels (vs. PHI) could each perform below typical expectations this week. Matthew Stafford (vs. NE) and Gardner Minshew (vs. MIA) also have matchups to avoid this week.

Running Backs

Week 10 RB1s

RankPlayerFantasy Points Last Week
RB1Bijan Robinson, ATL29.40
RB2Chuba Hubbard, CAR 24.90
RB3Chase Brown, CIN22.40
RB4James Conner, ARI22.30
RB5Rachaad White, TB19.00
RB6Austin Ekeler, WAS18.10
RB7Bucky Irving, TB17.70
RB8Kareen Hunt, KC17.00
RB8 (tie)Joe Mixon, HOU17.00
RB10Christian McCaffrey, SF16.70
RB11Alvin Kamara, NO15.90
RB12James Cook, BUF15.50

Season-Long RB1s

RankPlayerFantasy Points This Season
RB1Derrick Henry, BAL215.60
RB2Alvin Kamara, NO206.60
RB3Saquon Barkley, PHI190.90
RB4Bijan Robinson, ATL185.90
RB5Jahmyr Gibbs, DET162.90
RB6Chuba Hubbard, CAR162.20
RB7Kyren Williams, LAR161.00
RB8Breece Hall, NYJ152.20
RB9James Conner, ARI150.40
RB10De’Von Achane, MIA149.40
RB11James Cook149.10
RB12Joe Mixon145.40

Most RB1 Games This Season

RB1 GamesPlayers
6Derrick Henry
5Rhamondre Stevenson, Saquon Barkley, Alvin Kamara, Bijan Robinson, Chuba Hubbard, James Cook, Joe Mixon
4Jahmyr Gibbs, Breece Hall, Kenneth Walker, D’Andre Swift, De’Von Achane, Chase Brown, Kareem Hunt

Most RB1/2 Games Allowed

RB1/2 Games AllowedTeam DSTs
13CAR
12
11ARI, TB
10BUF, JAX, LV
9LAR, MIA, NE, NYG
8ATL, GB, NO, NYJ, WAS
7CHI, CIN, DAL, DEN, IND, PIT, SF, TEN
6CLE, DET, HOU, LAC, SEA
5BAL
4
3MIN, PHI
2KC

Three teams have allowed more than ten top-24 running back performances so far this season. Unfortunately for fantasy managers, all three teams (CAR, ARI, TB) are on bye this week. That could lead to lower than expected fantasy scores from running backs this week.

Three teams have given up ten top-24 games, so we are left to chase them. The Bills face Kareem Hunt and the Chiefs. With Isiah Pacheco seemingly returning soon, Kansas City could ride Hunt with a heavy workload against Buffalo, making him an excellent option this week. It’s always a good time to insert David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs into your fantasy lineup but a sweet matchup against the Jaguars makes that a no-brainer. Only two teams have allowed more fantasy points to running backs than Jacksonville this season. Finally, red-hot De’Von Achane faces off against the Raiders. With Raheem Mostert suddenly being phased out of the offense, Achane’s ceiling could be even higher than what we’ve seen so far this season, if that’s possible.

Other backs with promising matchups include Nick Chubb (vs. NO) and Joe Mixon (vs. DAL.)

The Chiefs have been tough against the run all season, giving up just a pair of top-24 games to opposing backfields. This week, James Cook will test that defense that is giving up just 14 fantasy points per game to running backs. Other defenses that are allowing 18 fantasy points or less include the Vikings (vs. Tony Pollard/Tyjae Spears), Chargers (vs. Chase Brown), and Eagles (vs. Brian Robinson/Austin Ekeler.)

Wide Receivers

Week 10 WR1s

RankPlayerFantasy Points Last Week
WR1Ja’Marr Chase, CIN55.10
WR2Marquez Valdes-Scantling, NO25.90
WR3Calvin Ridley, TEN25.40
WR4Tylan Wallace, BAL20.50
WR4 (tie)George Pickens, PIT20.50
WR6Courtland Sutton, DEN19.00
WR7Puka Nacua, LAR18.80
WR8John Metchie, HOU18.40
WR9Alec Pierce, IND18.10
WR10Amon-Ra ST. Brown, DET18.00
WR11Drake London, ATL17.70
WR12Rashod Bateman, BAL17.40

Season-Long WR1s

RankPlayerFantasy Points This Season
WR1Ja’Marr Chase, CIN225.20
WR2Justin Jefferson, MIN167.30
WR3Garrett Wilson, NYJ165.90
WR4Drake London, ARL158.90
WR5CeeDee Lamb, DAL156.60
WR6Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET152.70
WR7Terry McLaurin, WAS152.30
WR8Darnell Mooney, ATL144.40
WR9Zay Flowers, BAL141.50
WR10Malik Nabers, NYG139.50
WR11Chris Godwin, TB137.80
WR12Brian Thomas Jr., JAX133.20

Most WR1/2 Games Allowed

WR1/2 Games AllowedTeam DSTs
12HOU, TB
11BAL, CIN
10ATL, JAX, MIN
9CAR, CLE, DET, IND, SEA
8BUF, GB, WAS
7KC, NE, NO
6ARI, DAL, LAC, LAR, NYJ, PHI, SF
5DEN, MIA, NYG, PIT
4CHI, LV, TEN

Week 10 TE1s

RankPlayerFantasy Points Last Week
TE1Travis Kelce, KC20.40
TE2Mark Andrews, BAL18.80
TE3Tanner Hudson, CIN16.30
TE4Sam LaPorta, DET15.60
TE5TJ Hockenson, MIN15.20
TE6George Kittle, SF14.70
TE7Trey McBride, ARI11.10
TE8Pat Freiermuth, PIT10.70
TE9Dallas Goedert, PHI10.50
TE10Evan Engram, JAX10.00
TE11Dalton Schultz, HOU9.60
TE12Kyle Pitts, ATL9.50

The Texans and Buccaneers have each allowed a dozen top-24 performances to enemy wideouts. With Tampa resting this week, Houston could “take the lead” as they face in-state foe CeeDee Lamb and the Cowboys. Obviously, Lamb is being impacted by the recent quarterback change, not to mention his own injury issues. He remains a lineup lock, especially in this matchup.

Five other teams have allowed at least ten top-24 wideout performances and are defenses to target when choosing receivers for Week Eleven. They include the Ravens (vs. George Pickens), Bengals (vs. Ladd McConkey/Johnston), Falcons (vs. Sutton), Jaguars (vs. Amon-Ra St. Brown/Jameson Williams) and the Vikings (vs. Ridley.) Other players with positive matchups include Brian Thomas (vs. DET) and Valdes-Scantling (vs. CLE.)

The Bears, Raiders, and Titans have been tough against opposing receivers, allowing four top-24 performances each through ten weeks. This week, that means some of the top wideouts in the league could be slowed. The Bears face division-rival Green Bay, which is bad news for Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, and Romeo Doubs. Fellow NFC Northerners Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison match up with the Titans while Vegas will try to slow the duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

Other receivers with tough matchups this week include Drake London/Darnell Mooney (vs. DEN), Jakobi Meyers (vs. MIA), Zay Flowers/Diontae Johnson/Rashod Bateman (vs. PIT), and Michael Pittman/Josh Downs (vs. NYJ.)

Tight Ends

Season-Long TE1s

RankPlayerFantasy Points This Season
TE1George Kittle, SF141.00
TE2Brock Bowers, LV128.20
TE3Travis Kelce, KC120.00
TE4Trey McBride, ARI116.40
TE5Cade Otton, TB116.20
TE6Kyle Pitts, ATL100.50
TE7Tucker Kraft, GB96.00
TE8Mark Andrews, BAL95.70
TE9Hunter Henry, NE88.80
TE10Zach Ertz, WAS83.10
TE11Mike Gesicki, CIN82.20
TE12Dalton Kincaid, BUF81.60

Most TE1 Games This Season

TE1 GamesPlayers
8George Kittle
7
6Brock Bowers, Trey McBride
5Sam LaPorta, Mark Andrews, Kyle Pitts, Travis Kelce, Cade Otton, Zach Ertz

Most TE1 Games Allowed

TE1 Games AllowedTeam DSTs
7BAL
6CIN, GB, JAX, TB
5IND, LAR, LV, NO, WAS
4CAR, CHI, DAL, DEN, KC, MIN, SEA
3BUF, CLE, DET, HOU, NYJ, PIT
2ARI, ATL, LAC, MIA, NE, NYG, PHI, SF, TEN

WEEK 11 QB PPR RANKINGS

RankPlayerPosTeamOppFFPtsGrade
1Jalen HurtsQBPHIWAS20.4A-Game
2Brock PurdyQBSFSEA19.1A-Game
3Josh AllenQBBUFKC18.3A-Game
4Lamar JacksonQBBAL@PIT18.1A-Game
5Jayden DanielsQBWAS@PHI17.9A-Game
6Joe BurrowQBCIN@LAC17.3A-Game
7Bo NixQBDENATL17.1A-Game
8Jared GoffQBDETJAX16.7A-Game
9Justin HerbertQBLACCIN16.2B-Game
10Russell WilsonQBPITBAL16.2B-Game
11C.J. StroudQBHOU@DAL16.0B-Game
12Patrick MahomesQBKC@BUF15.8B-Game
13Tua TagovailoaQBMIALV15.7B-Game
14Jordan LoveQBGB@CHI15.6B-Game
15Drake MayeQBNELAR15.2B-Game
16Geno SmithQBSEA@SF15.1B-Game
17Sam DarnoldQBMIN@TEN15.0B-Game
18Matthew StaffordQBLAR@NE14.9B-Game
19Jameis WinstonQBCLE@NO14.9B-Game
20Anthony RichardsonQBIND@NYJ14.5B-Game
21Aaron RodgersQBNYJIND14.2C-Game
22Derek CarrQBNOCLE13.7C-Game
23Will LevisQBTENMIN13.4C-Game
24Caleb WilliamsQBCHIGB13.2C-Game
25Kirk CousinsQBATL@DEN12.8C-Game
26Gardner MinshewQBLV@MIA12.6C-Game
27Mac JonesQBJAX@DET11.8C-Game
28Cooper RushQBDALHOU10.5C-Game

The Ravens have now allowed a league-worst seven TE1 performances on the season, which should have Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth ready for a season-best game in Week Eleven. Next in line are the Bengals (vs. Will Dissly), Packers (vs. Cole Kmet), Jaguars (vs. Sam LaPorta.) Dalton Kincaid (vs. KC) and Jonnu Smith (vs. LV) also are in good spots for above average production this week.

The teams allowing the fewest fantasy points to tight ends through ten weeks are the Texans (vs. Jake Ferguson), Lions (vs. Evan Engram), Eagles (vs. Zach Ertz), and Browns (vs. Juwan Johnson.)

Finally, here is the chart summarizing how teams have fared against each position. I’ve also included the schedule for this week for reference.

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Ryan McDowell
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Weekly Matchups: Four Streaky WR Starters