Dynasty Statistical Edges: Week Seven

If you follow me on Twitter, you’ve probably noticed a series of tweets I share on a weekly basis regarding player and team defensive performances, all from a fantasy lens. I’m going to be sharing some of that same information with you here.

I use this each week as I am making my own lineup and waiver wire decisions and thought you might find this valuable as well.

Note: The scoring system used for this data is always PPR with four points for passing touchdowns.

Quarterbacks

Week Six QB1s

It has been a rough start to the season for Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott, but facing one of the league’s worst pass defenses was all he needed to get right. Prescott not only notched his first QB1 game but finished as the overall QB1 against the Chargers. Sam Howell and Desmond Ridder considered their surprising solid fantasy performances, notching their fourth and third QB1 game of the season. While the two second-year signal callers have been a nice surprise, neither are a sure-thing to finish the season as the starter. Howell is on pace to destroy the record for sacks taken and Ridder has simply been bad, despite his suddenly solid fantasy numbers.

Season-Long QB1s

Tua Tagovailoa was a big mover this week, climbing from QB7 to QB3 on the season. Tagovailoa now leads the league in passing yards (1,876) and touchdown passes (14, tied with Kirk Cousins) and leads one of the best offenses we’ve seen in years. Jared Goff and Justin Herbert are other risers, while Cousins, Brock Purdy and Russell Wilson were some significant fallers. Jordan Love was on bye last week and slid out of the QB1 range, replaced by rookie CJ Stroud.

Most QB1 Games This Season

Most QB1 Games Allowed

The Commanders stand alone having allowed five QB1 games through the first six weeks. Unfortunately, there is little clarity on what to expect from their Week Seven opponent, the Giants. Even if Daniel Jones returns, he feels like a risky start this week given his neck injury and all-around poor play this season. The Chargers have allowed three QB1 games but are actually the team giving up the most fantasy points to the position, over 27 per contest. I threw that in there just in case you needed another reason to start Patrick Mahomes this week.

The Cardinals (vs. Geno Smith), Bears (vs. Jimmy Garoppolo?), Broncos (vs. Jordan Love), Colts (vs. PJ Walker?) and Vikings (vs. Brock Purdy) have each allowed four QB1 games this season and make for wise targets when choosing your starting quarterbacks this week.

The Ravens (vs. Jared Goff), Bills (vs. Mac Jones) and Patriots (vs. Josh Allen) have yet to allow a QB1 performance this season. Goff and Allen could test those limits in Week Seven. Jones certainly will not. The Browns are allowing the fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and have to be anxious to face Gardner Minshew, who turned the ball over four times last week.

Running Backs

Week Six RB1s

Once again, the Dolphins backfield was the story of the week. Even with rookie De’Von Achane out of the lineup, veteran Raheem Mostert stepped up, scoring three times. He now leads the league with eleven touchdowns and outscored the RB2 (Travis Etienne) on the week by more than ten points. Kyren Williams went wild in the second-half against the Cardinals to finish as the RB3. That gives Williams four RB1 games this season, which matches the total number of top-12 games former Rams back Cam Akers produced in his three seasons in SoCal. Kareem Hunt is grinding away at Jerome Ford’s workload in Cleveland and in Week Six, that resulted in a touchdown and an RB1 finish.

Season-Long RB1s

Injured backs Achane and David Montgomery were the key fallers this week, while D’Andre Swift, Tony Pollard and Kenneth Walker moved up the ranks. Montgomery fell off the list, replaced by veteran Derrick Henry. Seeing Mostert, Williams and Zack Moss among the top-five backs in the league through six weeks makes the case for Zero RB strategy even stronger.

Most RB1 Games This Season

Most RB1 Games Allowed

The Panthers, Bears and Broncos have each allowed five RB1 games this season, though two of Denver’s came in the Miami massacre as both Mostert and Achane finished the week as top-three backs. In Week Seven, Carolina is on bye, leaving Aaron Jones (vs. DEN) and Josh Jacobs (vs. CHI) are very solid fantasy options. The Cardinals (vs. Kenneth Walker) and Packers (vs. Javonte Williams/Jaleel McLaughlin) are the other teams giving up more than 27 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields.

Five teams have yet to surrender an RB1 game, including Atlanta (vs. Rachaad White), Cleveland (vs. Jonathan Taylor/Moss), Detroit (vs. Gus Edwards/Justice Hill), Kansas City (vs. Austin Ekeler) and New Orleans (vs. Travis Etienne.) The Lions have only allowed a total of 72.8 total PPR fantasy points to opposing running backs through six games.

Wide Receivers

Week Six WR1s

After missing the previous week, Amon-Ra was back in the Lions lineup and racked up new career-highs with 15 targets, 12 receptions and 124 yards. Adam Thielen stayed hot with a WR2 finish and continues to be one of the biggest surprises of the season. Following the Panthers’ Week Six loss, head coach Frank Reich announced a play-caller change. Thielen managers are hoping that doesn’t impact his surprising start.

Season-Long WR1s

Thielen did it again, recording 11 receptions for the third time this season. He’s the only receiver in the league to do that this season and it pushes him from WR10 last week to WR3. Another “old man” was the other riser as Keenan Allen jumped from WR8 to WR4. Fallers this week include Puka Nacua, DJ Moore and the first of several drops for the injured Justin Jefferson.

Most WR1 Games This Season

Most WR1 Games Allowed

The Eagles continue to hold the top spot here, giving up six WR1 games through the first six weeks of the season. This week’s Dolphins/Eagles matchup is the early-season “game of the year” candidate and obviously Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle will be locked into fantasy lineups.

There are actually five teams allowing more fantasy points than the Eagles, making those teams solid targets this week as well. They are: Seattle (vs. Marquise Brown), Pittsburgh (vs. Cooper Kupp/Puka Nacua), Minnesota (vs. Brandon Aiyuk/Deebo Samuel), Washington (vs. Wan’Dale Robinson) and the Chargers (vs. Rashee Rice.)

The Bengals and Patriots are the only two teams who have yet to allow a WR1 game this season. While Cincinnati is on bye this week, the Pats will be faced with slowing down Stefon Diggs. The Bills superstar receiver scored more than 18 fantasy points in both matchups against New England last season.

Other teams slowing down wideouts this year include the Browns (vs. Michael Pittman), Rams (vs. Diontae Johnson/George Pickens), and Falcons (vs. Mike Evans/Chris Godwin.)

Tight Ends

Week Six TE1s

Disappointing Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts finally found the end zone and that’s all it takes to finish as a TE1 in the current landscape. Pitts’ TE3 rank is easily his highest of the year. Surprisingly, the Raiders finally decided to make use of rookie tight end Michael Mayer and he delivered with a solid performance, finishing as the TE5 for the year. Mayer’s five-for-75 stat line more than doubled his previous season-long numbers through the first five weeks of his career. We may have seen the beginning of a shift in Arizona. Second-year man Trey McBride finally saw more work than his veteran teammate Zach Ertz and was rewarded with a TE1 game. I expect McBride’s role and fantasy production to continue to grow.

Season-Long TE1s

Well, look what we have here. Not only did veteran tight end Jonnu Smith move into the TE1 range after Week Six but his much more heralded teammate Kyle Pitts did, too. Travis Kelce is back on top where we always expected him to be, despite missing Week One’s game.

Most TE1 Games This Season

Most TE1 Games Allowed

With eight teams tied with four TE1 performances allowed this season, let’s move straight to the fantasy points allowed. Four squads are giving up more than 15 fantasy points per game to tight ends. They include the Broncos (vs. Luke Musgrave), Texans (BYE), Jets (BYE) and Rams (vs. Pat Freiermuth?)

The Bills are the only team yet to allow a TE1 game this year and they are likely to continue that streak against the Patriots and Hunter Henry in Week Seven. Other teams allowing less than eight fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends include the 49ers (vs. TJ Hockenson), Seahawks (vs. Trey McBride/Zach Ertz), Browns (vs. Kylen Granson) and Ravens (vs. Sam LaPorta.) While Hockenson and LaPorta should remain in fantasy lineups, expectations for the current TE2 and TE3 should be lowered this week, based on challenging matchups.

Finally, here is the chart summarizing how teams have fared against each position. I’ve also included the schedule for this week for reference.

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.

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