Andrew Francesconi: Dynasty Fantasy Football Superflex Rankings Explained

Welcome back to another installment in our series of articles where DLF rankers not only explain their dynasty fantasy football rankings, but also include a number of the 2024 rookie draft pick selections so you can see how we each, individually, value those dynasty rookie picks in comparison to players as if it were a dynasty fantasy football startup draft. As would be expected, you will find a great degree of variability in the valuation of these picks as well depending on the style of the ranker. Each draft class has its own quality and depth and, depending on how the ranker values that quality and depth, individual rookie selections will appear earlier or later on the list.

Be sure to catch all of the Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Explained series.

DLF has always offered our readers multiple sets of dynasty fantasy football rankings from different experts to provide a broad view of player rankings. With many different strategies for building a successful dynasty team, no single set of rankings could possibly meet the needs of every coach. Instead, we’ve long subscribed to the idea of our experts providing their own individual rankings, ultimately giving our readers the opportunity to gravitate to a particular expert who closely matches their own style of ranking or, perhaps, instead choosing to use an average ranking across all experts.

A note about the tables. The Rank column indicates this ranker’s personal rankings. The AVG column indicates the consensus rankings value at the time these rankings were created. The “+/-” column indicates how much higher or lower the ranker is to the consensus average.

Each week we will provide rankings for 120 players and 2024 rookie draft picks, alternating between 1QB and Superflex rankings. For a deeper list of rankings, please visit our consensus dynasty fantasy football rankings.

SUPERFLEX DYNASTY FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS: Andrew Francesconi

With the Super Bowl come and gone, it’s time to turn our attention to the offseason which is the lifeblood of dynasty fantasy football. Over the next few months, we will focus on the combine, pro days, the NFL draft, and free agency in an attempt to gain an advantage over our league mates.

I’m approaching this ranking exercise with a startup in mind and how I would draft players if I were actually on the clock. For that reason, I tend to skew much younger when I place value on players. “Older” players can always be obtained in season from a team that’s struggling and looking towards the future, but it’s more difficult to acquire young studs via trade than it is during the start-up draft. You’ll notice this play out as I push aging veterans down the board in favor of rookie picks and players who just finished their first season in the NFL.

Finally, I’m much happier playing the long game than many other people who play and talk about dynasty fantasy football. At the end of the day, this game is for fun. I enjoy the art of constructing a team with young players to try and build a dynasty that stands the test of time. I’m not as hyper-focused on maximizing each individual point of value in trades and transactions and instead try and acquire good young players that I think will improve and bring me closer to winning.

Here’s a look at my superflex rankings!

Rankings: 1 - 24

We’re looking at superflex rankings so of course quarterbacks are going to find themselves at the top of the list and occupy each of the first seven spots. I think it’s tough to argue against those top six names being the clear-cut top-six QBs in dynasty right now, but of course, there’s plenty of debate on the order.

In potentially a shocking twist, I went with Josh Allen as the 1.01 over Patrick Mahomes. While Mahomes is the best quarterback in the world, and on pace to be the best of all time after his third Super Bowl win, his on-field success isn’t translating as easily to fantasy success. Mahomes is being asked to do far less on his own and instead playing smart, conservative football and trusting those around him. The opposite is happening in Buffalo where Allen is being asked to carry the entire team on his shoulders. Allen scored 115 more fantasy points than Mahomes and 40 more than 2nd place thanks to his insane rushing volume that saw him gain 524 yards and 15 touchdowns on the ground.

Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow, and CJ Stroud round out the top six and I would listen to an argument for any order of those four players. However, I’m going to default to the two QBs with elite rushing upside winding up higher on my rankings. The 2023 season was not kind to Burrow, but I’m going to chalk that up to being injured from the very start. If he struggles again in 2024 then we may need to begin having a discussion about his dynasty status.

Last year we saw nine or ten QBs going in the first round of superflex dynasty startups, but I don’t think we will see the same in 2024. The gap between the elite QBs and the rest is growing while top-end wide receivers are producing insane numbers. I have four WRs occupying spots in the top 11 as you can see the usual names: Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb, and Amon-Ra St. Brown. All four are insane but I think I agree with the consensus rankings for them even if some of my colleagues prefer Lamb as WR1.

We round out the first round with the 2024 rookie 1.01 which I’m treating as Caleb Williams for this exercise. There’s going to be a lot of discussion between now and late April trying to tear Williams down but I’m here to tell you that this kid is the real deal. Criticising Williams is popular online and he played poorly in the one game the public saw of him against Notre Dame.

In the second round, we finally see a handful of running backs go off the board with Bijan Robinson leading the way, followed by Jahmyr Gibbs, Breece Hall, and Christian McCaffrey. Elite RBs are still game changers in fantasy football and these four fit that bill. CMC might be getting up there in age, but I still think he has 2-3 great years left in the tank.

The really interesting discussion revolves around the three QBs in the middle of the round: Kyler Murray, Trevor Lawrence, and Anthony Richardson. Major question marks surround both of them. Murray returned to form over the second half of the season and was QB10 from Week 10. Lawrence shows flashes of Super Bowl-winning performance, but then sometimes misses wide-open receivers by 10 feet. Richardson looked fantastic in a five-game sample, but it was only five games and now he is recovering from a shoulder injury. All three have rushing upside and are a great option to pair with one of the elite WRs taken in the middle of the first round.

Rankings: 25 - 48

These next two sections are chock full of good young players that dynasty managers would love to get their hands on and it’s why trading back in startup drafts is usually such a good strategy. There is a tremendous amount of depth, especially at the WR and TE positions.

We have a run of QBs that fall in the tier 3 category for me with Dak Prescott, Tua Tagovailoa, Brock Purdy, and the rookie 1.03 and 1.04 picks which I’m viewing as Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels. Tua is one of my biggest fallers from this exercise, falling 15 spots from consensus. While the offense was dynamite at the beginning of the season, the second half of the year was concerning, and I’m not sure Miami is rushing to offer him a giant contract extension.

The second biggest faller in this group is Sam LaPorta which sounds blasphemous to say, but 33rd is just way too high with some of the other options on the board and the depth of the position. I fully believe he should be the TE1 off the board, but being able to get some other elite, young tight ends two or three rounds later makes it less likely I’ll be targeting LaPorta in any startup drafts.

If I didn’t take one of the top four RBs at the beginning of the second round, I’m looking to target one here at the beginning of the fourth round. There are a ton of talented backs, with RB1 upside, that should be available in that range including De’Von Achane, Jonathan Taylor, Travis Etienne, and one of my biggest risers: Kyren Williams.

At 46 and 48 I have Jordan Love and Mark Andrews respectively, two players I struggled ranking. Love was awesome in a small sample over the second half of the season but had some unsustainable underlying metrics that give me a slight pause in pushing him up to the next tier. Mark Andrews is a player I’ll be drafting zero shares of if his ranking of 46 persists throughout the offseason. He’ll be 29 at the start of the season, coming off a major injury, and potentially sharing time with Isiah Likely who impressed in his absence.

Rankings: 49 - 72

This is a very turbulent part of the rankings with plenty of players moving up and down the board by 15 or 20 spots based on the consensus rankings. It also features a large age gap between some of the young studs and aging vets.

Nico Collins kicks us off at 49 in my rankings which I wasn’t expecting to be a hot take but I’m much higher on him than some of my colleagues. I don’t get it. Collins is 24 years old, just finished as the WR7 in PPR formats, and is tied to one of the best young QBs in the NFL. Sure Tank Dell was exciting, but he’s 5’8’’, coming off of a major injury, and is only six months younger than Collins. I’m still taking Collins ahead of Dell as of this moment.

The youth movement continues at WR with Rashee Rice, Zay Flowers, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba occupying spots 52-54 respectively. Some people still might prefer JSN due to draft capital, but he was awfully disappointing this season. Rice flashed his ability in limited action over the first half of the season, and he put his skills on full display down the stretch when he was finally unleashed in the Kansas City offense.

I’ve hinted at it above, but now’s the time to talk about the tight ends. The reason I’m not rushing to select LaPorta and Andrews in the 3rd or 4th round is because of the quality tight ends available in this range. Kyle Pitts, Dalton Kincaid, Trey McBride, TJ Hockenson, and the rookie 1.07, which I’m treating as Brock Bowers, can all be found in this range. Bowers was arguably the best college football player in the country over the last two seasons but I’ll temper expectations just a tad before I see it at the next level. The only reason Hockenson comes in so low on this list is the uncertainty about his return from a late-season ACL tear. I wouldn’t leave this range of a startup draft without a tight end.

The biggest faller in this section is Justin Fields based solely on the uncertainty surrounding his status next season. When he’s on the field he consistently produces fantasy points. However, there’s a real chance he won’t be a starting QB next season. The range of outcomes for Fields is too wide to be ranked 49th in the consensus rankings.

Rankings: 73 - 96

This next section of players is highlighted by some of my biggest fallers. Some players have fallen due to age, others due to performance, and a few based simply on opportunity. I’ll highlight each as follows.

The aging vets are easy to spot. We have a few players that have been mainstays of championship fantasy teams like Cooper Kupp, Travis Kelce, Mike Evans, George Kittle, and Keenan Allen. These players are definitely team-dependent. In a startup, I would not be drafting them and passing up on some of the options around them. However, if you can trade a 3rd round pick to hopefully get one more year of elite production and try and win a championship I’d do it in a heartbeat.

The ones that have fallen due to production include Bryce Young, George Pickens, Tony Pollard, and Christian Watson. Each one of these players I have ranked 14 or more spots below consensus and it’s easy to know why. None of them played particularly well in 2023 and I’m concerned about their future. Young still holds some value as a QB recently drafted #1 overall, but the other three skill position players might not be the consistent fantasy starters we believed them to be entering the year.

Finally, we have some running backs that seem to be aging out of their prime-producing years and have some blemishes. Josh Jacobs, Javonte Williams, D’Andre Swift, and Isiah Pacheco all have major warts that prevent them from being drafted too highly.

The only player that I’m higher on than consensus is Daniel Jones. That’s a sentence I never thought I’d say two seasons ago. In 2022, Jones was the QB9 and signed a brand new contract with the New York Giants for four more seasons. Then in 2023 he struggled at the beginning and ended up tearing his ACL. While Jones might not be the most popular or sexy name, he’s a dual-threat QB who is on a contract that requires the Giants to stick with him for three more seasons. In a sea of questionable QB2s, he might be the steadiest ship.

We also see a run of late 1st and early 2nd round rookie picks. Those are a bit harder to forecast than the top seven, but when ranking all the active NFL players I got to a few spots where I thought to myself “Would I really be drafting Mike Evans here in the 7th round or take a shot on a rookie?” When those situations occurred, I often sided with the rookie.

Rankings: 97 - 120

This last section of rankings is really all over the place, and I’m a big believer that when you get to this area of a startup draft or player rankings you should be targeting players you like or feel strongly about rather than just chasing ADP value. For that reason, a lot of the players in this section have big swings whether it be above or below the consensus rankings.

Two of the biggest risers are Tyjae Spears and Evan Engram. Derrick Henry is not going to be a Titan next year and Spears is going to be unleashed as the main back in Tennessee after a very promising rookie season. I know Engram is 29, but what does he have to do to get some respect! He was the TE7 in 2022 and finished last season as the TE4. He is a monster in PPR leagues and Trevor Lawrence loves throwing him the football. He will be an easy top 12 tight end for the next three seasons.

There are also a ton of fallers in this range, and some players where I don’t understand their consensus ranking whatsoever. Josh Downs falling 30 spots in my rankings might sound harsh, but there is no way he’s a top-80 dynasty asset. The only way he could get close to that number is if Michael Pittman leaves, but I fully anticipate him being in Indianapolis next season.

There are a few other aging players that I’m just ready to reroll. Terry McLaurin, Calvin Ridley, and Alvin Kamara are getting up there in age and have shown steep declines in production. On players like that, I’d rather be one year early than one year late when their value falls off a cliff.

The last player I want to highlight is Nick Chubb. He represents an interesting gamble for teams that are older and competing for a championship in the next year or two. Obviously, an ACL injury isn’t good for a 28-year-old RB, but the way Cleveland utilizes him I think Chubb can be a fantasy contributor for two more seasons. Chubb definitely comes with some risk, but he’s shown elite production in the past and is still running behind one of the best offensive lines in football.

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Andrew Francesconi

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

I’m a former college basketball player and a recent law school graduate from Northeast Ohio. I began playing fantasy football as a way to enjoy the NFL without having to root for the Cleveland Browns as they routinely produced losing seasons. Voted “Most Likely to Try and Trade for Your First Round Pick in Next Year’s Rookie Draft”.

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