Dynasty Blueprint: 5 Takeaways From Week 15
Editor’s Note: Ryan debuted the Dynasty Blueprint term all the way back in 2014, focusing on his personal dynasty strategy and philosophy. He introduced ideas like punting running backs and the now-common productive struggle. This series expands on the original, providing an in-depth look inside his dynasty mind.
This article and all of the content on DLF is for you, the reader. The goal is to make you a better dynasty player and bring home some titles. Hopefully, this will help you reach that goal.
Dynasty Five
Here are the five dynasty-related stories that have my attention coming off another week of NFL action.
The Rookie WR1?
In Week 15, Jaguars rookie receiver Brian Thomas had another WR1-level performance. Facing the Jets’ typically stellar defense, Thomas caught ten passes for 105 yards and two touchdowns. And that was with Mac Jones as his quarterback. Thomas was the fourth receiver selected in the spring Draft, but was typically the fifth wideout taken in dynasty rookie drafts, often falling behind Xavier Worthy. Thomas was a bit of a one-year wonder in college, but there was little else to worry about when it comes to his prospect profile.
Thomas has been a consistent and high-level producer all season. He almost immediately established himself as the top option in Jacksonville, despite the presence of productive veterans Christian Kirk and Evan Engram. Thomas has finished outside of the top 30 fantasy receivers just four times this season. Pre-season rookie WR1 Marvin Harrison, Jr. has done this eight times in his rookie campaign.
While Harrison and Bears rookie Rome Odunze have shown flashes of their long-term upside, Thomas has clearly overtaken each of them in dynasty value. The debate now lies between Thomas and Giants rookie Malik Nabers. The LSU product quickly rose to an elite dynasty value after a hot start to his career, being valued among the elite of the elite wideouts including Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson. It can be argued that was a case of “too much, too soon” for Nabers, but given the production of each rookie receiver, along with their long-term outlook and quarterback situation, wherever Nabers is ranked, Thomas should not be far behind. Or maybe not far ahead.
Allen on Fire
A week ago, Josh Allen set the all-time single-game fantasy point record for a quarterback, logging 51.9 fantasy points. Allen accounted for six total touchdowns and added 82 rushing yards to his 342 passing yards. All he did for an encore in Week Fifteen was lead his Bills team to a convincing win over the NFC favorite Lions, totaling four more touchdowns and passing for 362 yards. Allen is still not the QB1 on the season, which just goes to show how great Lamar Jackson has also played this season. Allen has totaled nine QB1 performances this season, including three as the overall top-scorer. Adding to his impressive season is that he’s done this after losing last season’s starting wideouts Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. Although the Bills did draft Keon Coleman and trade for Amari Cooper, neither have been all that impactful for the Bills offense, and expected breakout star Dalton Kincaid has been among the season’s biggest disappointments.
Allen is the current QB1 in our just-released December dynasty ADP and despite the strong push by Jackson, Jalen Hurts and rookie Jayden Daniels, that top spot should belong to Allen for the foreseeable future.
Here’s a look at Allen’s dominance over the years, using our Player Scoring History App,
Chubb a Dud-Dud
One of the top stories of the 2024 season had to be the recovery and return to the field for Browns running back Nick Chubb. After suffering a nasty leg injury early last season, some thought Chubb would never play again. He was able to work back and get on the field for Cleveland by Week Seven this season.
Sadly, that’s basically where the good news ends for Chubb and his dynasty managers. The former superstar back was eased back into action, sharing the workload with Jerome Ford over the past two months. Chubb did have an RB8 finish in Week Twelve, thanks to a pair of touchdowns but he hasn’t rushed for more than 60 yards in a game and in Week Fifteen, suffered a broken foot that forced him from the game.
Chubb will enter the off-season as an unrestricted free agent who will soon turn 29 years old. It would be another feel-good story if Chubb is able to find a new home and enjoy some level of success in his final NFL seasons, but dynasty managers can’t expect that at this point.
WR Stashes
One thing I focus on in the final month of each season is which young players are getting additional playing time. That could come as a result of injuries to players at the top of the depth chart or teams out of the playoff hunt simply wanting to find out what they have in specific younger players. When players enjoy late-season breakouts, they become easy dynasty stashes for the impending off-season.
This week, a quartet of young wideouts got my attention with their performance and opportunity. I will be targeting each of these on the waiver wire this week, especially in leagues where I have already been eliminated from the playoffs.
Jalen Coker, the undrafted rookie receiver, began earning playing time back in Week Four. His snap rate and overall workload grew and he peaked with a WR16 performance in Week Eight, when he caught four passes for 78 yards and a touchdown. Coker then missed the past four weeks with an injury, which landed him on the waiver wire of most dynasty leagues. He came back in Week Fifteen and picked up right where he left off. The rookie led the Panthers with 110 yards and caught a touchdown among his four grabs.
The Dolphins played much of their Week Fifteen game without starting receiver Jaylen Waddle, who was dealing with an injury. That helped rookie Malik Washington see a surprising workload. Washington led the team with 52 yards on five receptions. The Dolphins also gave veteran Odell Beckham his release prior to this game, giving Washington a shot at the team’s WR3 role.
Second-year receiver Parker Washington has been filling in well for the Jaguars following multiple injuries to their receiver corps. Washington was the WR4 in Week Thirteen with a 6/103/1 line on a career-high twelve targets. Washington caught three balls for 54 yards this week against the Jets and is locked in as Jacksonville’s WR2 for the final weeks of the season.
Calvin Austin led the Steelers with 65 yards on five catches against a tough Eagles defense. Austin has finished as a top-30 fantasy scorer in three games this season, serving as Russell Wilson’s deep threat. With George Pickens’ status in doubt, Austin has a chance to continue to see more work in the season’s final weeks.
QB Needs
In Week 15, many teams around the league had playoff spots on the line, but some NFL head coaches are more worried about just keeping their jobs following a losing season. This type of desperation led to multiple teams benching their quarterback mid-game. It’s just that time of year. Dynasty managers are beginning to look ahead to the 2025 season and NFL teams are doing the same thing. Over the next month, we’ll also have a deluge of announcements of college players declaring their intentions to be part of the upcoming NFL Draft and even more attention is shifted towards the off-season.
Some of the benchings were not all that surprising and a few also involved injury situations. We already know the Giants and Raiders will be looking for a new quarterback this off-season, but they surely won’t be alone and we got a hint of other teams that could join them in the hunt.
The Titans benched former second-round pick Will Levis after his poor performance against one of the league’s softest defenses in Cincinnati. Journeyman Mason Rudolph replaced him as the Titans’ crowd cheered. Ouch! Lacking first-round draft capital, it won’t be hard for the Titans to give young head coach Brian Callahan a chance to hand-pick his quarterback this off-season.
There had been some talk that the Browns could stick with the lovable Jameis Winston as their starting quarterback next season. They didn’t even stick with him this season. After another multiple-interception game, Winston was benched in favor of young, low-upside backup Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Finding a quarterback is rarely easy in the NFL, but it is even more challenging when a team has already made the type of investment the Browns have with Deshaun Watson.
The Panthers and Jets are two other teams that could be looking for a new signal caller this off-season. Bryce Young has played much better as of late, but still not good enough to help turn Carolina into a contender. The Jets and Aaron Rodgers each have a big decision when it comes to their respective future. It could be a case of who blinks first. “I quit! You’re fired!”
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