Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Time to Trade Away Puka Nacua?
Welcome back to the DLF Mailbag, the preeminent mailbag in all the dynasty fantasy football land. As a reminder, there are multiple ways to pose your burning questions! I’ll be soliciting weekly feedback via X/Twitter (look for a new pinned tweet each Monday), and you can also reach out using our Discord channel, or the old-fashioned way (via our online webform).
Hopefully you’ve been taking advantage of all the content my colleagues here at DLF have been pumping out in the days following the draft. Right around this time, and in addition to gleaning immediate reactions for value shifts to both rookies and veterans alike, I like to track the dispersion of the league’s new undrafted free agents (UDFAs). While it’s incredibly unlikely they will ultimately contribute to your roster, unearthing the next Arian Foster for the price of “free” adds disproportionate value to your team.
One name I’m tracking in particular is running back Frank Gore Jr, who landed with the Buffalo Bills. When it comes to UDFAs, destination may be the most important factor. Gore lands on a Bills roster led by James Cook, but one that is otherwise devoid of high-tier, proven talent. It’s true they selected fellow ball carrier Ray Davis in the fourth round, but he will be entering the league at 24 years of age and comes with a collegiate profile lacking in efficiency, and with his best years coming when other members of his signing class had already graduated. He was perhaps selected to be the thunder to Cook’s lightning, but I don’t see an overly dynamic player.
As an undersized running back with passing game chops, Gore is more like Cook. He also broke out earlier in college, albeit at a lower competition level, and of course has the NFL bloodlines. To be clear, it’s more likely he’ll be cut before training camp concludes as it is he’ll wind up prospering, but I’m tracking this nonetheless.
Let’s get to it!
From the Old School Webform…
Don’t Puka the Lion
In a 10-team PPR league, Should I trade away Puka Nacua for Jahmyr Gibbs? My main running backs are Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Jonathon Brooks, Jaylen Warren, and Roschon Johnson. My receivers are Justin Jefferson, Nacua, DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Christian Kirk, George Pickens, Michael Wilson and Jermaine Burton. We can start 2-4 running backs and 3-5 receivers. – Anthony in Dallas
I would normally begin answering such queries with output from the Trade Analyzer, but here we’re talking about two ascending sophomores who are already extremely well-regarded. As such, off the bat and in a vacuum we’re looking at a “pick ‘em” scenario. Instead, let’s consider positional fit.
While notably the league rules dictate one additional receiver must be started on a weekly basis, the two flex spots allow for additional, well, flexibility. As there is also a greater quantity of starting receivers in the NFL than there are starting ball carriers, it’s hard to base an argument on lineup settings. So once again let’s pivot, this time to currently rostered players.
Christian McCaffrey is (arguably) the best running back in the NFL, playing for (arguably) the best offense in the NFL. He has also seemingly dispelled any notion of an injury-prone nature, having played in 33 of 34 contests over the past two seasons. Saquon Barkley was once viewed similarly, but has had a rough go of it since his second year in the league. Notably he bounced back in 2022, finishing as the PPR RB5, but again fell victim to a moribund Giants office last season, only managing 3.9 YPC. The hope is an intra-divisional move to the Eagles will do wonders, as defenses will no longer be focused on him, but modest skepticism is warranted.
Securing Gibbs would not only bolster the RB2/3 slots behind McCaffrey, but would also function as an effective hedge on the chance the veterans fall off. While I like Jaylen Warren, having him in your second flex spot or as a top backup may be the smart play. He’s an extremely efficient player, but will turn 26 during the season and is still well behind teammate Najee Harris in terms of volume. Though Harris’ fifth-year option was recently declined, I just can’t buy into an offense led by failed head coach Arthur Smith and a past-his-prime Russell Wilson. Having Warren break out would be more of a luxury to me, not an expectation.
The same is true for newly minted Panther Jonathan Brooks, who still needs to bounce back from injury and hold off teammates Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders. The second-round draft capital gives him a leg up, but the pedigree is lacking somewhat with only one year of production. Here again, I’m treating any output as a bonus.
At receiver, Justin Jefferson requires no further introduction, and DJ Moore was a WR1 as well. However, losing Nacua means you’d be more than likely thrusting aging veteran Keenan Allen into your WR3 position. As shown below, when healthy Allen is up to the task, and last season he even showed a higher ceiling than his younger counterpart.
Much has changed, as Allen is now with Moore in Chicago, with both having the potential to cap one another’s upside. It’s true they will be catching passes from #1 overall draft pick Caleb Williams, but fellow first-round receiver Rome Odunze has entered the fold as well. Here again, skepticism is warranted.
Past that though exists a higher baseline of ancillary players with Christian Kirk and George Pickens. The former was the Jaguars leading receiver prior to injury, and the latter’s upside is higher following the trade of Diontae Johnson to the Panthers. The receiver cupboard still seems a bit fuller to me.
Given this, I’m going to go with Gibbs. The young, proven ball carrier with job security is something of a white whale at the position, but Gibbs has it in spades. You’re going to get more upside from him at running back than you will from Nacua at receiver, especially considering the relative positional scarcities. No hate on the Ram, who put forward a tremendous rookie year, but I have him on the minus side of the ledger here.
From Twitter…
What to do for QB2?
Having Gardner Minshew/Sam Darnold as my Superflex do I need to draft a JJ McCarthy/Bo Nix in round 1? Or should that pick be devoted to my favorite WR/RB
— Giannis Fan (@bucksinsex2021) April 30, 2024
I’ve espoused my philosophy in this space previously that I consider rookie drafts as a breeding ground for general talent improvement as opposed to an arena to specifically target a position. The phrase “draft for talent, trade for position” is one that carries with it some truth – the former places everyone on a relatively equal footing, while the latter introduces more of the free market into the equation. That is to say, at least in my opinion, bias is lessened in a draft as compared to when making trades.
Still, rolling our Gardner Minshew or Sam Darnold is a recipe for disaster in a superflex setting. The former should hold some value while he’s playing, but he still has to win the starting job over 2023 rookie Aidan O’Connell. The latter seems likely to have his depth chart position usurped by 2024 freshman JJ McCarthy sooner rather than later. So at best, your current status seems…dicey.
Given this, and while noting my thoughts above, it does seem like a good time to take a few bites at the quarterback apple. There were six signal callers selected within the first 12 picks of this year’s draft, meaning NFL talent evaluators both recognize the importance of the position and believe in this year’s talent. This was perhaps no more noteworthy than with the Atlanta Falcons’ surprising pick of Michael Penix, despite having recently signed positional cohort Kirk Cousins to big money in the off-season. It’s important to have talent at the position, as well as a succession plan when necessitated (look no further than the post-Tom Brady New England Patriots as compared to the post-Aaron Rodgers Green Bay Packers).
So while you don’t “have” to make your pick based on position, it could be prudent here. I don’t know enough about the state of the rest of your team, but if you believe yourself to be a year or two away then making an attempt to shore up the superflex setting’s most important position could wind up paying later dividends.
Per our current superflex rookie rankings, the selection of a quarterback would be warranted. As shown above, our rankers consider five of said six signal callers to be worthy of a pick in the first round. I could see even going a smidge higher and placing Nix above Brooks and Xavier Worthy, and potentially Brian Thomas as well though that’s a bit closer.
If you prefer another position, that’s completely fine as the first round is chock full of potential future ballers. You could even use your second-round pick to take a crack at Penix, who should eventually get his shot. So while I do think a quarterback upgrade should be your focus, it seems like it would be hard to go wrong there.
