Trending Observations: Najee Harris in the Best Shape of His Life?
It’s the slow time of the off-season when middling veteran signings and the release of the schedule are the biggest news. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t moves that could affect your dynasty roster. Below are a few of those developments and what to do with him.
Faux Josh
MVS to the 716‼️
We’ve signed WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling to a one-year deal: https://t.co/J0ioug08Xi pic.twitter.com/I16H2Ph7Sq
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) May 14, 2024
After the signing of Marquez Valdes-Scantling, the new-look Bills receiving corps is now complete. Out are Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis and in are MVS, fellow free agent Curtis Samuel, and rookie Keon Coleman. This is what Josh Allen has to work with for the 2024 season and thus begins the debate on how Allen and his fantasy stats will be affected. He has been a top-two fantasy quarterback in each of the last four seasons throwing for at least 4,200 yards, 29 touchdowns, and rushing for at least 400 yards and six touchdowns.
He also had Diggs and Davis on his team in each of those four seasons and now has neither. But Diggs was shipped out, with Buffalo eating a lot of salary, while the Bills let Davis walk via free agency. Both moves could be seen as signs that Buffalo was ready to move on and start from scratch when it came to receivers.
Dynasty Impact: Before last season, it would be easy to say that Allen’s productivity was largely due to Diggs. Diggs recorded at least 1,200 yards and eight touchdowns in each of the three previous seasons from 2020-22 and finished as a top-eight fantasy receiver in each of those seasons. He was off to another fast start in 2023 with 100-yard games in five of his first six games. But his production fell off a cliff after that, recording more than 74 yards just twice the rest of the season and scoring just three times.
Yet, Allen turned in the best fantasy season of his career and was a top-three fantasy player overall. All of this is to say Allen should be just fine heading into the 2024 season. He won’t have Diggs but he has quality options in Samuel and second-rounder Coleman. He also sees 2023 first-round tight end Dalton Kincaid return as a top option.
There will be some Allen dynasty managers who are anxious about the moves the Bills have made this off-season. Don’t be one of them. If you’re a current Allen manager, keep him. If you’re not, maybe you can acquire him for cheaper than he should be.
Write-Goff
Jared Goff just got paid 🤑 pic.twitter.com/XmOEyZLHIH
— DraftKings (@DraftKings) May 13, 2024
In one of the most surprising storylines in recent NFL memory, Lions quarterback Jared Goff landed a massive extension that makes him the second-highest-paid quarterback in the NFL and keeps him in Detroit. The contract is a combination of A) a reward for a quarterback who has led his team to a ton of success the last few seasons and B) a hedge against future quarterback extensions that will surely be higher.
Back to Goff, was largely written off after the Rams sacrificed him to acquire Matthew Stafford. The Rams winning the Super Bowl in the first year after the trade made the contrast between Stafford and Goff even starker. But a funny thing happened – the Lions started winning. Goff led them to their first winning season in five seasons in 2022 and followed that up with an appearance in the NFC Championship in 2023. He’s been equally as successful in fantasy leagues with over 9,000 passing yards and nearly 60 passing touchdowns over the last two seasons and finished as a top-10 fantasy quarterback in each of them.
So with his real-life team situation cleared up, where does that put him in dynasty circles along with his former-successor-now-backup Hendon Hooker?
Dynasty Impact: For a not-even 30-year-old quarterback with multiple top-ten fantasy seasons under his belt, seeing Goff 19th in dynasty rankings seems like a mistake. There are three rookies ranked ahead of him who have yet to take a snap plus other quarterbacks who either aren’t as consistent, aren’t as healthy, or both. Goff is not only in a familiar situation but has the players around him that propelled him to such success the last two seasons. There’s no reason Goff should drop off as a QB1 in fantasy scoring.
As for Hendon Hooker, the 2023 third-round pick who was thought of as a potential replacement for Goff in future seasons if the Lions weren’t winning, he’s now an afterthought.
Heading into last season, Goff and Hooker weren’t far off when it came to ADP. But by the end of the year, with Goff and the Lions taking off, Hooker fell off dynasty startups. He can be dropped in more shallow Superflex leagues while Goff should be a priority if you need to shore up your quarterback position.
Najee Mass Index
Najee Harris has cleaned up diet and lost weight ahead of contract year. https://t.co/P3wIeSLAKi
— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) May 17, 2024
We’re officially in ‘best shape of this life’ season and it landed on Steelers running back Najee Harris. Harris has been eating well and working out and is looking primed for a bounce-back season. It’s timely since he is in a contract year and is, presumably, playing for a new contract whether it’s in Pittsburgh or somewhere else.
On the surface, it doesn’t appear that Harris would struggle to secure a new contract. He’s recorded at least 1,000 rushing yards and seven touchdowns in each of his first three seasons. But we also know how tough the running back market is on the open market lately. It also doesn’t help Harris’ case that he’s been gradually surpassed in the passing game by fellow running back Jaylen Warren. Harris went from 74 receptions for 467 yards in his rookie season down to 29 receptions for 170 yards in his third. The decline in his receiving production resulted in Harris being a top-five fantasy running back that first year down to barely a top-20 one.
Dynasty Impact: It’s been a steep fall for Harris’ dynasty value in such a short amount of time. Being a first-round running back in 2021 placed him in the top ten when it came to dynasty ADP to start his career. After a slight uptick, it dropped to his current standing which is barely as a RB2.
If your dynasty team is on the cusp of a playoff spot, Harris isn’t a bad running back to target. He’s still the lead back in Pittsburgh this season and seems to be a lock for 1,000 yards every year. He won’t get you top-five numbers anymore but not a lot of running backs can. The position is about depth – in real-life or fantasy leagues – and adding a proven commodity like Harris is a smart move.
