Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: The Value Difference Between 1.01 and 1.02
Welcome back to the DLF Mailbag, the preeminent mailbag in all the dynasty fantasy football land. As a reminder, there are multiple ways to pose your burning questions! I’ll be soliciting weekly feedback via X/Twitter (look for a new pinned tweet each Monday), and you can also reach out using our Discord channel, or the old-fashioned way (via our online webform).
It’s mid-May, which means we’re already into rookie minicamp and OTA season! There probably won’t be much to glean from such pad-less activities, but that doesn’t mean you can’t listen to the drumbeats. For one semi-recent example, it wasn’t too long ago when lightly regarded third-round rookie Terry McLaurin routinely found himself the focus of Washington’s beat writers. If you bought in for a low price back then (probably a third-round rookie draft pick), your roster would be better off for it.
Let’s get to it!
From Discord…
The Dawgs or the GOAT?
In a 12-team, PPR superflex league, which side do you prefer for a contending team – Travis Kelce, JK Dobbins and a 2026 second-round pick, or David Njoku, Ladd McConkey and a 2025 second-round pick?
To begin with, I can see why this trade appeals to both parties, particularly if the second team is a non-contender. Travis Kelce is still the best tight end in the league until proven otherwise, and of course the only reason he isn’t the dynasty TE1 is due to his advanced age (he’ll turn 35 during the 2024 season). He’s a sensible buy as a player who would upgrade the tight end position for most if not all teams.
But if he’s not getting you over the hump, Kelce quite frankly doesn’t belong on your roster. He took a statistical step back in 2023, failing to eclipse 1,000 yards for the first time since 2015, and only managing to corral five scores. Head coach Andy Reid stated that Kelce received a lighter workload during the regular season to ensure his health for the playoffs, which makes perfect football sense but doesn’t help fantasy footballers. The new contract is nice, but while high-end TE1 statistics should be assumed, we shouldn’t view Kelce as the difference maker he was in years prior.
Continuing, JK Dobbins is a player who isn’t guaranteed to recoup anything close to his prior value given his extensive injury history. The Chargers are a good landing spot, sure, but $50,000 in guaranteed money doesn’t exactly scream “commitment.” Even if he’s just a throw-in to the deal, it’s better than cutting him for nothing.
That’s the good news for the non-contending team…
David Njoku had a fine 2023 season, but color me skeptical moving forward. He finished as the PPR TE4 last year, but this was in a massive down year at the position. His 12.8 PPR points per game only slightly bettered that of the PPR TE10, Dalton Schultz, who had 10.2 PPR points per game. So even though he posted career highs across the board, they simply weren’t game-changing numbers.
Of greater concern, Njoku scored 93.0 of his 205.2 PPR points (45.3%) in the five games Joe Flacco started (five of 16 games; 31.3%). You don’t need to be a statistician to figure out Flacco turned Njoku into an outlier relative to what he did earlier in the season, and quite frankly in the rest of his career. It’s possible he will gel with a returning Deshaun Watson, but the Browns’ pricy quarterback has yet to revisit the highs he saw as a Houston Texan. Even factoring age into the equation, it’s fair to posit Njoku carries more question marks with him than does Kelce.
In order to bridge the gap, it’s the rookie McConkey who needs to carry the day, as the swap of future second-round picks is more cosmetic than anything. To that all I can request is for someone to explain McConkey to me like I’m an idiot, because quite frankly I just don’t get it.
Stats courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
He showed reasonably well at the NFL Combine with a 4.39s 40-yard dash, but possesses middling explosion metrics, which when coupled with a smaller frame yields a minuscule catch radius. As shown from the statistics above, he never really broke out in college with a compiled per-game average of 3.0-43.2-0.4. He added some spunk on the ground, but 13 carries across three years does little to raise his profile. Supposedly he killed it on the pre-draft circuit and received second-round draft capital, but his lack of pedigree including never dominating nor commanding targets is more important to me. He’s not a player I’m seeking to roster.
As always, we play this game with passion, and if the two trade partners were passionate about the players they both sent and received, then I’d say it’s a reasonable deal. Still, despite being the oldest player in the trade, and noting he could be subject to falling off the cliff in the coming years, Kelce seems like the only sure thing. As he’s potentially helping push you over the top at an otherwise barren position, I like the deal for the contending team.
The Need for Reed?
In a 12-team, 1QB PPR league, which side do you prefer for a contending roster – pick 1.01, or pick 1.02 and Jayden Reed?
I’m leading off with a direct DLF Trade Analyzer comparison of the two receivers who are locks to go 1-2 in most any 1QB draft, mostly to hammer home what most already accept as convention – both Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers are very highly regarded, with the former checking in a bit ahead of the latter on average. Nothing earth-shattering here, but it’s always good to lead with broad strokes before we get into the nuance.
Given this, I’d argue the most important player in the deal is the one viewed something as a ‘throw-in’ – Jayden Reed.
Put frankly, the Packers’ pass-catching room is a mess. 2023 sophomore Romeo Doubs isn’t going away, and fellow rising third-year player Christian Watson is seeking a return to form following an injury-marred 2023 season. Joining them were rookies Reed and Dontayvion Wicks, as well as tight ends Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft. All told each member of this group had 30+ receptions last season, and they represented Green Bay’s top six pass-catching options. For the cherry on top, even rookie Bo Melton came on at the end of the year with 105 receiving yards on New Year’s Eve day!
While Reed led the way in receiving, Doubs was only five receptions and 100 yards behind with each securing eight scores. Watson and Musgrave nearly equaled them on a per-game basis, though they missed eight and six games, respectively. Kraft and Wicks compiled over 900 combined yards despite each functioning as “fill-in” options on their respective depth charts. All told, eight separate players (including two running backs) led the team in receiving in at least one 2023 contest.
Stats courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
As I said, it’s a mess.
Situation is generally temporary, but this Packers’ paradigm will persist at least two more seasons. While it’s all roses for signal caller Jordan Love, it means we dynasty owners will be scratching our heads trying to figure out who to start on a week-to-week basis. Given this, the central question becomes how much of a difference-maker Reed will be.
Perhaps most encouragingly, Reed offers something of a different skillset than his compatriots, as he’s more of a compiler and yards-after-catch maven as compared to their downfield prowess. This could potentially afford a higher PPR floor, which was born out by each of the final eight regular-season contests in 2023 yielding at least four receptions. His ceiling is further buoyed by virtue of the additional 119 rushing yards and two rushing scores, which again should be a staple given his shiftiness as a runner.
So I could see viewing his rookie year finish as the PPR RB25 as his floor, with room to grow. He’ll need to continue his “Percy Harvin-lite” type usage and continue scoring the ball, and if not he’ll need to fight for additional volume. This is far from impossible.
But the question is even given that, how much higher do you see his ceiling?
Having a yearly PPR WR3 is great, but it’s also in the area where the next 20 or so players are only scoring 1-2 fewer weekly points. In other words, not game-changing. Again, it’s also possible that when the house is full, Reed’s prospects will suffer. Though it’s admittedly a small sample size, with Watson and Musgrave back healthy, Reed only supplied three catches on seven targets in two playoff games. This backswing of the pendulum needs to be accounted for, and barring major changes we shouldn’t expect anything resembling consistency for the Packers’ skill position players for the foreseeable future.
I like Reed and think he will be a fine player, but one whose upside is probably capped in the low-end WR2 range. Useful to have for sure, but not a game breaker, and definitely someone who can be used to “level up” for the best asset in a hypothetical deal. While I might want an ancillary player or future pick thrown back my way as well, if you believe Harrison is going to be a tier above Nabers, I make the deal.
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