2024 Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update: Drake Maye

The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty managers we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In our Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profiles and where they fit. The basis of the rookie profile involves the usage of STORM analysis, focusing on five key components: Situation, Talent, Opportunity, Risk, and Market.

Situation

Name: Drake Maye

Position: Quarterback

Pro Team: New England Patriots

College Team: North Carolina

Draft Status: Round 1; Pick 3

Maye seemed to fly under the radar in the pre-draft process while Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and JJ McCarthy made all the headlines. Despite that, he was still selected third overall by the New England Patriots as the third quarterback off of the board. Reports are that the Giants and Vikings were willing to trade up to three first-round picks to acquire Maye, but the Patriots ended up staying put and selecting the quarterback they hope will finally be a worthy successor to Tom Brady.

In New England, Maye joins one of the least-impressive offensive rosters in the league. It’s a total rebuild for the once-great Patriots. The group of wide receivers is unheralded, and they will likely lean heavily on two rookies, Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker. Hunter Henry and Rhamondre Stevenson are holdovers from the previous regime, but who knows if they’ll be with Maye for the long haul. There’s a new head coach, new offensive coordinator and a new vice president of player personnel. The Jerod Mayo era has begun and he’s hitched his wagon to Maye in the hopes of turning this team around.

In a rebuild such as this, the Patriots have the luxury of being patient with Maye. He’s a quarterback who would likely benefit from getting a season to learn and grow where he doesn’t have to lead the team every Sunday and win games. That’s what the team brought Jacoby Brissett in for, to be the bridge quarterback to their QB of the future. While the situation doesn’t seem good now, there is some hope that this new regime in New England will do a better job building around their young quarterback than Bill Belichick did with Mac Jones over the past couple of years.

Talent

Drake Maye Combine Results:

Height: 6’4”

Weight: 223 lbs

Arm: 32.25”

Hand: 9 1/8”

Wing Span: 76 1/8”

Did not complete any athletic testing during the pre-draft process.

Maye is the high-ceiling, low-floor prospect of this quarterback class. If he can throw with better accuracy and make better decisions, he could follow a similar career path to Josh Allen. If he doesn’t improve at all from his final year at North Carolina, this could be a completely wasted pick.

Maye has prototypical quarterback size with a huge arm that can make every throw on the field. He adds a unique ability with his legs to gain huge chunks of yards on the ground, while still avoiding big hits with his slide. He accounted for 42 first-down carries on third and fourth down the past two seasons, a talent that could be very valuable for fantasy and reality.

On the other hand, he is too reckless with the football and makes far too many mistakes. He threw nine interceptions last season to only 24 passing touchdowns. He can be frustrating to watch because he’ll make an outstanding throw 30 yards downfield and then he’ll miss a wide-open receiver on the next play five yards in front of him. He also didn’t handle pressure well, both in the pass rush and in big-game situations (his career TD-to-INT ratio was 39:4 in the first half of games and 24:12 in the second half). All in all, with good coaching and patience he can work through these issues, but it certainly could be ugly at times.

Opportunity

New England Patriots Depth Chart:

Depth Chart from 4for4 team depth charts.

Maye is currently listed as the starter on this depth chart, but there will be a true competition for the starting job. I believe Maye will have to win the job away from Jacoby Brissett, and not the other way around. The Patriots would love for Maye to show enough in training camp to earn the job, but if he does end up sitting for most of 2024, that is not necessarily a bad thing. Maye needs some development and we’ve seen plenty of quarterback success stories lately where the team didn’t rush their rookie into the starting lineup.

The depth chart around Maye needs some development as well. It’s not a stretch to say that this is the worst group of wide receivers in the league. Polk and Baker could add some juice, but they certainly aren’t sure-fire prospects. Demario Douglas showed some flash last year, but he doesn’t have a stellar resume. Kendrick Bourne can be hot and cold and KJ Osborn has always been an intriguing bench option. This group will need some time, and maybe even another off-season to be considered a good group of weapons for any quarterback, let alone a developmental rookie like Maye.

Risk

Images courtesy of College Football Reference.

As I mentioned above, the floor for Maye could be lower than any of the other first-round quarterbacks from the 2024 NFL Draft. 2023 was a really down year for him. He lost several weapons and was forced into a new offensive system, but a great quarterback should be able to adapt to those situations. He failed to do so. If his professional career is similar to his 2023 season, the Patriots and fantasy managers are going to be searching for another new quarterback sooner rather than later.

To go along with the risk of Maye is the risk of his landing spot. Bill Belichick dug this roster into a hole trying to capture the magic of the Tom Brady Patriots. Now, an inexperienced head coach is charged with digging this team out of that hole and building them up for the future. Jerod Mayo doesn’t have an uphill battle, he’s climbing a mountain. The Patriots roster, the inexperience of the coaching staff, and the necessary development of Maye add up to a very risky pick at quarterback for dynasty managers.

Market

Data courtesy of DLF Startup Dynasty ADP.

Data courtesy of DLF Drake Maye Profile.

Maye’s value in dynasty startup drafts actually jumped up about a round since the NFL Draft, despite the less-than-desirable landing spot in New England. He’s being drafted as a mid-tier QB2 at 17th overall, below Brock Purdy and Tua Tagovailoa, and before fellow-rookie JJ McCarthy. As it will take some time for Maye to reach his full potential, and the quarterback position is loaded with talent right now, this feels like a fair spot to be targeting Maye in startup drafts.

In rookie drafts, Maye’s ADP is 21st overall (QB3) in single-quarterback leagues and 6th overall (QB3) in superflex leagues. Maye and McCarthy seem to be attached at the hip in ADP, and their order could easily flip in your personal rookie drafts. Personally, I value Maye as the second quarterback in this year’s class, ahead of Jayden Daniels. Unlike Maye, Daniels cannot make every throw on the field, struggling especially over the middle. Combine that with his slender frame and tendency to take big hits, and I’m more confident that Maye will be a successful NFL quarterback than I am of Daniels.

Drake Maye’s superflex trade value via the DLF Trade Analyzer Tool.

On the superflex trade market, Maye is an expensive asset to acquire. The Trade Analyzer lists several high-end wide receivers in a similar value range as Maye, including Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Tank Dell and DJ Moore. Now is not the time to buy Maye in dynasty leagues. Managers will need to be patient with Maye and wade through some difficult times. There will be negative reports out of training camp (this is the Boston media market we’re talking about) and there will be mistakes made in pre-season games. His value will be lower at points this year, and that is the better time to make an offer for Maye.

In conclusion, Drake Maye is an extremely talented quarterback who will need some development at the professional level to reach his ceiling. But, if he reaches that ceiling, he could be a perennial top-10 quarterback for fantasy football for years to come. He has a huge arm, throws a great deep ball and is more athletic running the ball than you would think. The floor may be a low one, but I think the high ceiling is well worth the risk one would take on drafting him.