2024 Off-Season Mock Drafts: Impact of Potential Landing Spots
For this edition of the Off-Season Mock Draft series, I wanted to look at some NFL mock drafts and see if I could find some commonalities between them. After laying out the potential landing spots, I tried to think about how those potential landing spots could impact various players’ fantasy values. I used a recent mock draft from Pro Football Network as well as an older mock draft. I also looked at a mock from drafttek.com and another from DLF’s Shane Hallam with draftcountdown.com. After doing this exercise in the past, I found this year’s mock drafts to be wildly different from one another, with minimal consensus after the top-four picks, so let’s get into it.
Quarterbacks
Caleb Williams, QB
More often than not, Williams is mocked to the Bears at 1.01. I hate it. The Bears have a long history of failure when it comes to drafting and developing quarterbacks in the NFL. With the Packers and Lions taking a step forward this year, and the Vikings only being a couple of injuries away from squeezing into the playoffs themselves, the Bears are on the outside looking in at the playoffs in 2024- even with Williams at the helm, likely resulting in the firing of head coach Matt Eberflus.
This would mean Williams will enter his second season with a new coach and his second offensive scheme in two years, and that is often a recipe for disaster. Look, I can’t see anything bumping Williams from his perch atop the superflex hierarchy, but I am overwhelmingly concerned about this most likely of landing spots. In the single mock Williams didn’t go 1.01, the Bears took Marvin Harrison Jr, but we’ll get into that a little later.
Drake Maye, QB
According to the mocks, UNC Tar Heel Drake Maye will land in Washington to take over for UNC Tar Heel Sam Howell. As their rosters stand today, I like the collective receiving corps of Washington more than I do Chicago, and following the draft, I can imagine a world where I end up bumping Maye over Willimas in my rankings. Now, with the recent hiring of head coach Dan Quinn, we have to hope he brings in a strong offensive coordinator and that Maye is his own man, and not like the previous recent UNC signal-callers we’ve seen in the NFL.
Jayden Daniels, QB
Most mocks have the draft go QB-QB-QB, and the Heisman-winning Daniels is the clear-cut QB3 in this draft, most often landing with the Patriots at pick No 3. There is no way to know what this Patriots team is going to look like without Bill Belichick at the helm, so it makes it hard to predict what this landing spot would mean for Daniels. However, there is no other viable competition in the Patriots’ locker room, and the draft capital alone ensures he’ll get at least three seasons to prove himself in the NFL. I’d like more weapons in the passing game, but the landing spot isn’t awful.
Now, things get messy. Many of the same teams were involved, but which player goes to which team seems highly debatable at this point. We’re hitting the core reason why we all like this time of year in his crazy lil hobby of ours- rampant rookie speculation!
JJ McCarthy, Bo Nix, Michael Penix Jr, and Michael Pratt round out the current top seven of the position. The Falcons, Giants, Steelers, and Broncos were the most common landing spots, with the Rams, Raiders, Saints, and Vikings making single appearances. Obviously, draft capital will play a massive role in how these four players are valued in dynasty circles.
The Falcons and Broncos seem to have an immediate need, and they’ve got weapons in the passing game, too. The Giants, Steelers, and Rams jobs are about a year away, so those spots have long-term potential but not much in 2024. The sleeper in the group is the Vikings’ job. Assuming Kirk Cousins doesn’t return, getting to throw to Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and TJ Hockenson could turn anyone into a fantasy-viable commodity. We’ll see how everyone performs at the combine and where they land in the draft because the jury is out this early in the off-season.
Running Backs
At this early stage in the process, there doesn’t seem to be any consensus on the running back position. Florida State’s Trey Benson was the first back off the board in two of the mocks. Each mock was wildly varied in landing spots and draft capital. Ten running backs were selected in all four mocks, but with so much fluidity at the position and so much more off-season ahead of us, I highly doubt there is anything resembling a consensus top-ten at the position, let alone a top-five. Running back is often the most coveted fantasy position, so the ebbs and flows of the pre-draft process are going to be attentively watched by the entire dynasty community.
Trey Benson, RB
Benson was the first back off the board in two of the four mocks, and he’s my current RB1 in this class. In two of the drafts, he landed with Green Bay. While I don’t love the landing spot for the 2024 season, it’s an excellent spot for Benson long-term as the heir apparent to the Aaron Jones role on what looks to be one of the NFL’s best young offensive attacks.
Jonathan Brooks, RB
Brooks was mocked to the Texans twice, who need help at the position. I believe the Texans are more likely to address the position via free agency, but that doesn’t matter for our purposes here today. Unlike the Packers’ job, the Texans’ role would be fantasy-relevant from the start. Opportunities and touches are the most important paths to fantasy production, and there is nobody on the current Texans roster that would keep Brooks off the field.
Blake Corum, RB
The most frequent landing spot for Corum was with the Ravens. It’s hard to imagine JK Dobbins returning to Baltimore, opening the door for someone else to step up. I like Gus Edwards as much as anyone else, but he’s no game-changer, and Keaton Mitchell will miss some time following his late-season ACL tear. That void will need to be filled by someone, and that someone is likely in this 2024 rookie class. If it does end up being Corum, his ADP will skyrocket.
Braelon Allen, RB
Wisconsin’s Braelon Allen is considered by many to be a top-three running back in this class. Unlike the backs ahead of him, though, there were no teams where he was mocked to multiple times. Allen was mocked to three teams with immediate vacancies: the Texans, Vikings, and Chargers, any of which would lock him into that positional top-three and probably a top-six rookie pick overall.
Right now, it’s hard to say who exactly squeezes into the remaining top tier. Tennessee’s Jaylen Wright is a favorite of mine. Bucky Irving, Will Shipley, Marshawn Lloyd, Ray Davis, and Audric Estime were all selected in all four mock drafts. Wright was mocked to Baltimore in the two drafts where Corum didn’t land there, and I would happily make him my RB4 if that were to play out. Among other landing spots, common teams projected to draft a running back were The Cowboys, Buccaneers, Cardinals, Titans, Giants, Raiders, and Browns. Aside from the Cowboys, none of those other jobs should be appealing enough from a fantasy opportunity to bump up anyone who happens to land with them on draft day.
Wide Receivers
In a world where there is a passing game arms race, we see numerous receivers selected in the draft every year. Over the last decade, wide receivers have been the first, second, or third most-drafted position in the draft. This year, we seem to have a clear 1/2/3, and then the wheels fall off. Again, much of the mystery surrounding this class will shake out once we get some reports from the senior bowl and see results from the combine and, of course, draft capital.
Marvin Harrison Jr, WR
Harrison was mocked to the Cardinals in three of the four mocks, the first non-QB off the board in each. In the outlier mock, he was selected first overall by the Bears. Between the two options, I would like him in Arizona for fantasy purposes. In Chicago, DJ Moore and Cole Kmet already have established roles and proven rapport with Justin Fields; Harrison would only have to compete with Trey McBride for targets in Arizona. At the end of the day, none of this matters; Harrison is the top pick among position players in this draft regardless of landing spot.
Rome Odunze, WR
Washington’s Odunze was twice mocked by the Colts in the first round. Although I initially didn’t like it, I’ve changed my mind. Odunze opposite Michael Pittman with Josh Downs in the slot and, Jonathan Taylor out of the backfield and Anthony Richardson under center? Yes, please. The only knock is that there is only one football to go around.
Troy Franklin and Xavier Legette, WR
Both players were mocked to Kansas City twice. As we see every year, whoever the Chiefs draft gets a considerable post-draft-landed-in-Kansas City bump. I’m not a devy guy and am not very familiar with either player, but if they get taken by the Chiefs- especially with first-round draft capital, they’re certainly going to wind up a late first-round pick in rookie drafts.
Xavier Worthy, WR
In two mocks, Worthy was selected by the Carolina Panthers. I can’t say I love the landing spot. Carolina looks to be on the fast track to replacing Washington as the most dysfunctional franchise in the NFL. Bryce Young left a lot to be desired in year one, and with a new coach and GM in the building, it’s hard to imagine any success taking place in that building over the next few seasons. The team does need a legit No 1 option in the passing game, so there is an opportunity to get on the field early and get a ton of targets, but I would look elsewhere if other players had similar landing spots.
Those were the only top receivers in this class that were mocked to a specific team more than once. As I said, things are very fluid at this point in the off-season. Let’s look at some of the “better” landing spots and who else was mocked there.
Keon Coleman, WR
The Florida State Seminole is the biggest boom-or-bust player in this entire draft. One comp I saw for him was Dorial Green-Beckham, which is a phenomenal comparison. Coleman has the upside to end up as the top receiver from the 2024 class and the potential to be working at a car wash in 2026. He was mocked to Buffalo and Cincinnati, and those are two spots where he could turn into someone fantasy-relevant. He wouldn’t be asked to do too much playing opposite a bonafide top receiver and could develop as a big-bodied secondary weapon, especially in the red zone.
Brian Thomas Jr, WR
Also mocked to Buffalo, I love that for Thomas as well. Another spot where we saw Thomas land was with Jacksonville. The Jags need to get some weapons for Trevor Lawrence and Thomas would be a fantastic complimentary piece to go alongside Calvin Ridley and Evan Engram.
Malik Nabers, WR
Another year, another top-receiving product out of LSU. According to many, Nabers isn’t far behind Harrison in the top receiver conversation. He was mocked to four different teams, but among them, the New York Giants would be a fantastic team for him. The Giants have one of the worst wide receiver rooms in the NFL, and adding Nabers would make it instantly better. Now they just need to figure out what they’re going to do at quarterback.
Other teams that were projected to select a receiver in each mock were the Falcons, Jets, Lions, Cowboys, and Steelers. While there is an immediate need in New York and Atlanta, and players could contribute on those teams from day one, I don’t hate the stash-and-wait approach of whoever winds up in Detroit, Dallas, or Pittsburgh. As of today, all those teams may be in the market for a WR2 as soon as next year. A Ja’Lynn Polk, Malachi Corley, or Roman Wilson type of player could become a sneaky stash play if they wind up in one of those spots come draft day.
Tight Ends
Only seven tight ends were taken in all four mocks, so I found there was very little to take away from the mocks as far as projecting the significance of landing spots.
Brock Bowers, TE
Bowers was among the few consistent picks in the mocks, with the Chargers snatching up the Georgia product. Bowers is a rock-solid prospect that is pretty much landing spot-proof. Unless, of course, we have a reincarnation of Arthur Smith in the body of Jim Harbaugh, in which case, all bets are off.
The other six tight ends to get selected in each of the mocks were Ja’Tavion Sanders, Ben Sinnott, Jaheim Bell, Jared Wiley, Cade Stover, and Brevyn Spann-Ford. Cincinnati, Washington, Indianapolis, Kansas City, and San Francisco were the only teams mocked to draft a tight end in more than one mock. The Bengals have a glaring need at the position- and need another weapon in general- but especially if Tee Higgins signs elsewhere. Any of the above prospects become the TE2 in the class if they get decent draft capital and land in Cincy.
The Colts have a crowded depth chart at the position, and I don’t know if any of these rookies are significantly better than anything the Colts already have on their roster. The Commanders, 49ers, and Chiefs are all in need of a future playmaker at the position and could draft a player now who develops into a breakout star in the next two or three years. With the potential for long-term success at the position, landing spots will be of paramount importance this year.
This time of year is the most fun part of the dynasty football season. Speculation, prognostication, and hyperbole run rampant- and I’m here for all of it. The excitement of what could be takes over, and you get to plant your flag on “your guys” early in the process. Hopefully, you feel the same way; otherwise, why would you read about the fantasy impact of landing spots from an NFL mock draft? What a wild little hobby we all love. Enjoy the off-season!
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