Dynasty Statistical Edges: Week 13

If you follow me on Twitter, you’ve probably noticed a series of tweets I share on a weekly basis regarding player and team defensive performances, all from a fantasy lens. I’m going to be sharing some of that same information with you here.

I use this each week as I am making my own lineup and waiver wire decisions and thought you might find this valuable as well.

Note: The scoring system used for this data is always PPR with four points for passing touchdowns.

Quarterbacks

Week 12 QB1s

The current top-two fantasy quarterbacks on the season matched up in Week 12, so it should not be a surprise that Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts also finished as the QB1 and QB2, respectively, for the week. Of course, an overtime period helped boost those fantasy numbers even more before Hurts’ run up the middle ended the game. Dak Prescott, CJ Stroud, and Jordan Love all stayed hot with top-five finishes for the week and veteran signal caller Matthew Stafford finally notched his first QB1 game of the season.

Season-Long QB1s

In the season-long quarterback ranks, Prescott (QB6 to QB3), Stroud (QB7 to QB5) and Patrick Mahomes (QB10 to QB8) were risers over the past week. Lamar Jackson and Sam Howell each fell two spots while Josh Dobbs tumbled to QB11 and could lose his job following the Vikings’ Week 13 bye. Finally, Love joined the QB1 ranks, replacing Tua Tagovailoa.

Most QB1 Games This Season

Most QB1 Games Allowed

The Commanders’ defense continues to struggle in all areas but for fantasy football purposes, it begins with the quarterback position. Washington has allowed ten QB1 games, three more than any other team. Their weekly opponent is starter-worthy almost without exception. That’s certainly true this week as Tagovailoa is set to tee off.

The Bears and Jaguars have each given up seven QB1 games, though the Bears are just middle of the pack when it comes to fantasy points allowed to the position. Regardless, Chicago is on bye this week, leaving the Jags opponent, Jake Browning, as the next option. Browning was fine last week in his first start in place of the injured Joe Burrow, but I can’t recommend him here, even in what looks to be a nice matchup.

Other teams allowing 23+ fantasy points per game include the Eagles (vs. Brock Purdy), Chargers (vs. Bailey Zappe?), and Buccaneers (vs. Bryce Young.)

The Ravens have only allowed one QB1 game on the season and that won’t change this week, as Lamar Jackson and the crew get a rest. Next in line are teams surrendering two QB1 games through the first dozen weeks of the year. Those include Carolina (vs. Baker Mayfield), Kansas City (vs. Jordan Love), and Pittsburgh (vs. Kyler Murray.)

Other defenses that have been tough on opposing signal callers include the Browns (vs. Stafford), 49ers (vs. Hurts), Patriots (vs. Justin Herbert), and Cowboys (vs. Geno Smith.)

Running Backs

Week 12 RB1s

The Rams welcomed Kyren Williams back from a stint on the injured reserve list and to say he picked up where he left off would be an understatement. Williams rushed for 143 yards and added six grabs for 61 yards, including two scores. That gives Williams five top-ten fantasy performances in just seven games this season. At just 23 years old, not only is Williams a potential league-winning back, but he might also be in the conversation to be a dynasty RB1.

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Season-Long RB1s

Rookie Bijan Robinson enjoyed one of the best games of his young career in Week 12, scoring a pair of touchdowns. That boosted him back inside the RB1 group. Tony Pollard and James Cook are also now season-long top-twelve backs as Joe Mixon, Gus Edwards, and Derrick Henry fell from the ranks.

Most RB1 Games This Season

Most RB1 Games Allowed

The Cardinals got waxed by Williams and the Rams and have now allowed 15 top-24 games to opposing backs this season. Next up is the Steelers duo of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. Both are solid starting options this week with a half-dozen teams on bye.

The Panthers (vs. Rachaad White) and Seahawks (vs. Tony Pollard) are next up, giving up 13 top-24 games on the season. Other matchups to target include the Broncos (vs. Devin Singletary), Jets (vs. Bijan Robinson), and Colts (vs. Derrick Henry.)

The Lions and Eagles have been the toughest teams against the run, for fantasy purposes, allowing only five top-24 games through the entire season. This week, the Lions face a difficult matchup with Alvin Kamara while Philly will try to stop Christian McCaffrey. Each of these backs will still be in fantasy lineups but could fail to hit their average season-long numbers.

Several other teams are allowing less than 18 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields, including the 49ers (vs. D’Andre Swift), Rams (vs. Jerome Ford), Dolphins (vs. Brian Robinson), Buccaneers (vs. Chuba Hubbard), Cowboys (vs. Zach Charbonnet) and Falcons (vs. Breece Hall.)

Wide Receivers

Week 12 WR1s

Rookie Rashee Rice has been building towards this type of breakout game for weeks now, seeing his usage and opportunity steadily increasing. He finally delivered in Week Twelve, catching eight balls for 107 yards and a touchdown. This was actually the first WR1 game for any Chiefs wide receiver all season, another reminder of how bad the unit has been for Patrick Mahomes.

Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

Season-Long WR1s

We saw almost no movement among the season-long WR1s over the past week. Mike Evans two-touchdown game helped him climb two spots to the WR9 while Michael Pittman joined the group, tying Davante Adams for the WR12 spot.

Most WR1 Games This Season

Most WR1 Games Allowed

The Eagles continue to pace the league when it comes to giving up fantasy points to the receiver position. They’re now up to 17 top-24 games allowed in just twelve weeks this season. You don’t need another reason to include Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel in your weekly lineups, but here it is.

The Commanders (vs. Tyreek Hill/Jaylen Waddle), Chargers (vs. Demario Douglas/DeVante Parker), Buccaneers (vs. Adam Thielen), and Titans (vs. Michael Pittman) are other teams allowing 38 fantasy points or more to enemy receivers.

The Broncos and Browns have each been tough against receivers and have often played in low-scoring games. These are matchups and teams to avoid and this week Denver faces red-hot Texans, including Nico Collins and a banged-up Tank Dell. The Browns also face a top receiver duo, the Rams’ Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. It could be a tough week for the four high-scorers.

Other teams that should be avoided, if possible, are the Jets (vs. Drake London), Cowboys (vs. DK Metcalf/Tyler Lockett/Jaxon Smith-Njigba), Panthers (vs. Mike Evans/Chris Godwin), and the Saints (vs. Amon-Ra St. Brown.)

Tight Ends

Week 12 TE1s

Steelers’ tight end Pat Freiermuth has had a rough season, dealing with multiple injuries and…well…Kenny Pickett. Freiermuth took advantage of last week’s plum matchup against the Bengals to post a nine-reception, 120-yard performance and earn the overall TE1 spot for the week.

Season-Long TE1s

After several weeks of strong play after taking over for an injured Zach Ertz, second-year tight end Trey McBride has cracked the TE1 group, replacing Logan Thomas.

Most TE1 Games This Season

Most TE1 Games Allowed

As previously mentioned, the Bengals have struggled against tight ends, allowing a league-high eight TE1 games. That likely means another solid game for Jaguars’ tight end Evan Engram. The Texans are the other team on the top line here, though their matchup is a bit easier this week, against Denver’s Adam Trautman.

Other matchups to target this week include the Broncos (vs. Dalton Schultz), Falcons (vs. Tyler Conklin), Chargers (vs. Hunter Henry), and Eagles (vs. George Kittle.)

The Bills are still perfect on the year, not allowing a TE1 game. That streak will continue another week with Buffalo on a bye. The Browns (vs. Tyler Higbee) and Titans (vs. Mo Alie-Cox) have only given up one TE1 game all year and are defenses to avoid. Finally. A few other difficult matchups include the Patriots (vs. Gerald Everett), 49ers (vs. Dallas Goedert?), and Chiefs (vs. Tucker Kraft.)

Finally, here is the chart summarizing how teams have fared against each position. I’ve also included the schedule for this week for reference.

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.

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