Dynasty Trending Observations: Kirk Cousins vs Michael Penix, Ezekiel Elliott, and Odell Beckham
What a doozy. Between the surprise picks and trades that didn’t happen, there’s a lot to digest when it comes to your dynasty team. Below are a few of the bigger developments to monitor.
Cousins Retreat
Kirk Cousins and Michael Penix Jr next year pic.twitter.com/W927TZXptM
— K.Y.R.I (@VividDope) April 26, 2024
?????? – that was genuinely how most, if not the entire, sports community felt about the Falcons drafting quarterback Michael Penix. For starters, it was questionable if Penix should have been drafted that high in the first place. He’ll be 24 when his rookie year starts and has already suffered multiple serious injuries.
But even if you get past all of those red flags, there is the fact that Atlanta paid a fortune for a quarterback already, committing nearly $100 guaranteed to Kirk Cousins over the next two years. And that’s if Cousins doesn’t even play well at which point his actual contract goes for two more seasons.
It was as controversial and confusing as any draft pick in recent memory and maybe all-time. So now that the Falcons have two quarterbacks, what does the dynasty community do with them?
Dynasty Impact: Funnily enough, both Cousins and Penix were climbing dynasty ranks before the NFL Draft. Cousins, despite coming off a major injury, was joining a team with ready-made assets around him including Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts. And for a player who managed top-15 fantasy seasons every year, he’s been healthy and a starter, the future was bright.
For Penix, the fact that he’s a first-round pick should have been a boost to his dynasty value. Instead, he’s been insta-blocked from any chance of starting on his team for at least two years if not more if the Falcons are winning.
As to which quarterback has more dynasty value, it would have to be Cousins. He’s locked into the starting job on a good offense. And if he does what Aaron Rodgers did when the Packers took Jordan Love, he could be in the MVP conversation. For Penix, he’ll be close to 30 by the time Cousins’s contract is over and his skill set was questionable already. He would make a good value pick in your second-round superflex rookie draft but Cousins is the man in Atlanta and dynasty leagues.
Zeke Show
In his second stint in Dallas, Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott now will go back to wearing No. 15, the same number he wore at Ohio State.
To help make this possible, Cowboys QB Trey Lance is switching from No. 15 to No. 19. pic.twitter.com/A6E4mmeBpn
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) May 1, 2024
Guess who’s back? Back again. Ezekiel Elliott and the Cowboys finalized the most inevitable reunion ever this week after Elliott’s one-year experiment with the Patriots. The deal is a rare win-win wherein Elliott has little-to-no competition for touches and the Cowboys fill a need they failed to address in either the draft or free agency up to now.
And while his best days appear to be behind him, he has some real bounce-back potential. He averaged a career-low 3.5 yards per carry last season but played behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league. That led to his worst statistical season on the ground with just 642 rushing yards and three touchdowns. His fantasy managers were saved by what he did in the passing game, turning 51 receptions in 313 receiving yards and two touchdowns. It was his best receiving season in four years and helped him salvage some RB3 fantasy value.
But Zeke won’t be battling an incumbent running back for touches like he did in New England with Rhamondre Stevenson. Instead, he has his former backup to compete with in Rico Dowdle which should be much easier to overtake.
Dynasty Impact: Elliott’s dynasty value is nothing if not consistent. After being a top-five option for the first five years of his career, he saw a steady decline before bottoming out as a top-70 running back.
But there could be an opportunity here. There is no competition for the starting job in Dallas which means Elliott will likely start the season as such. Last year’s leader in attempts for the Cowboys – Tony Pollard – saw 252 carries on the year. Even using Elliott’s low point of 3.5 yards-per-carry average last year would mean nearly 900 rushing yards over a whole season. Add in the receiving numbers that both Pollard and Zeke saw and it could mean a productive season for the vet. He won’t cost nearly what he used to but he would be a viable option for your RB2 slot on a dynasty championship contender.
Dolphin Tale
Odell Beckham Jr. is signing with the Dolphins, per @TomPelissero @RapSheet 🐬 pic.twitter.com/izBi4wOfsk
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) May 3, 2024
After waiting out most of free agency, wide receiver Odell Beckham has found his next team in Miami. He joins a receiving corps that already includes All-Pro Tyreek Hill and perennial 1,000-yard receiver Jaylen Waddle who, collectively, becomes one of the best, if not the best, receiving groups in the NFL.
But does Miami need a third receiver? The Dolphins ranked just 19th in pass attempts, throwing 33.6 times per game. And as for the third receiver on the Dolphins team last season, that would be Cedrick Wilson with a whopping 38 targets for 22 receptions and 296 yards, and three touchdowns.
The signing of Beckham looks good on the surface but should his dynasty managers be concerned?
Dynasty Impact: Beckham hasn’t been relevant in dynasty leagues in close to five years. He’s now on his fifth team and will be no better than the third option on his team.
But for the cost, he might be worth a flier. Using our DLF Trade Analyzer, Beckham is worth roughly a fourth or fifth-round rookie pick. The hit rate isn’t great for players taken that late so why not add Beckham (in deeper leagues) in the event they get him involved to lighten the load for both Hill and Waddle? There are not many offenses better than Miami which is what you’re buying.
