The Value of Trading a 2024 Rookie Draft Pick for a 2025 Pick
Now that the 2024 NFL Draft is in the books, rookie drafts will soon follow. Dynasty league teams will be re-stocking their rosters for either a rebuild or a shot at a championship with this year’s rookies. But what if you’re not enamored with any of the options? Or maybe you don’t have a spot on your roster for a highly (or lowly) touted rookie?
For many leagues, there is the option of trading picks in next year’s draft. It’s a risk for any team to give up future assets but it may be worth it for the reward of success. Below, we compare rookie picks in 2024 to picks in 2025 to see if there’s a strategy that might work for your team. We’ll use the easy-to-use DLF Trade Analyzer to look at potential deals.
First Round Picks
We’ll start with the good stuff. The 2024 rookie class is highly touted and full of exciting prospects. Whether you’re in a superflex league or 1QB, there’s no shortage of players to consider taking. And for such a loaded class, it might make sense to go ahead with a pick if you’re near the beginning of the draft order as it typically means your dynasty team didn’t fare that well. Or, maybe you made moves before the draft for veteran players and can afford to move that pick. Below is what you can expect if you move that high pick.
For those higher picks, it’s not just enough to get a 1:1 pick for that high of draft capital. But you could flip that high pick now for multiple picks next year. So even if those future picks aren’t as high as you would have liked, adding a second pick to the package makes it go down easier.
Things get better when it comes to trading future picks if you’re picking later in the first round. The potential deal below shows what a typical playoff dynasty team could get for their first-round picks.
This is a great deal since the odds of getting a higher draft slot next year are higher than that late-round pick. In a 12-team league, there are only three spots that would be the same or worse as opposed to nine spots that could be better.
The deal looks even better when you consider the rookies that would be available at 1.10.
A quarterback (again, in a 1QB league), a running back taken in the third round of the actual draft, and the eighth rookie receiver according to our rookie rankings. At first glance, the odds aren’t high that any of those players would contribute to a dynasty team coming off a playoff appearance. Stockpiling picks for the future is also a good way to build up ammo to make a move mid-season if this particular playoff team is in contention again and needs to fill a weak spot in the lineup.
Second Round Picks
While early/first-round picks can garner a bigger return, don’t sleep on those later picks when it comes to building assets for the future. The hit rate for rookies drafted in later rounds is inherently low. But, just like the real-life draft, the more picks you have the better odds that you do hit on something.
This example shows what you could expect from a mid-second-round pick. Again, this would represent a dynasty team that either made the playoffs or was close to it. But passing on a player this year could mean two players next year. And while you’re missing out on an immediate return, your odds will go up on a future return if you’re able to add two picks to your stockpile.
Later Picks
As your rookie drafts drone on, the only players left are dart throws. The odds of any third-round rookie ever contributing to your team are low so why not use those picks for something else? Below is what you could get for a late third-round pick which essentially equates to a pick swap. And once the rookie draft ends, that future third-round pick looks a lot more appealing as a supplemental piece to a potentially bigger deal.
Conclusions
Like most strategies, context is key. Trading current picks for future picks will not be the way to go for every team every year. However, there are several scenarios, some of which are outlined above, that would make sense. This would especially be the case if your dynasty roster is fairly solidified and you aren’t in a hurry to add another rookie to the mix. And remember, those extra picks won’t necessarily be used on a rookie next year but, rather, as an add-on in a bigger trade for a veteran as you make a playoff push.
