Dynasty Breakouts and Busts Heading into the Fantasy Playoffs

Over the last few seasons, I’ve looked at player performance versus their ADP three times each season. This year I looked at the fantasy landscape after week four and again after week nine. Now, with all the bye weeks behind us, as we head into the fantasy playoffs, it is time to take a final look at some of the biggest over and underperformers of the 2022 fantasy football regular season.

I’m comparing players’ preseason DLF Dynasty ADP with their current points-scored rankings. I typically omit injured players from the busts, but in a few cases, I will reference a player’s points per game ranking if they need to be included. So, as we head into the fantasy postseason, let’s look at who is trending up and down.

Quarterback

Breakouts

Justin Fields, QB CHI (difference between ADP and current positional rank:+8)

In the last three years of covering players’ performance relative to ADP, I’m 99% sure Fields is the first player to make the busts list earlier in the year and then make the breakouts list later in the same season. Fields’ monster run from weeks 6-11 saw him average nearly 30 points per game and has carried him to his current QB5 ranking, up from QB24 in week five.

Daniel Jones, QB NYG (+20)

I was one of many who had written Jones off for dead for dynasty purposes, as did most people who play fantasy. This was seen in his ADP of QB30 as we headed into the season, telling us that dynasty GMs didn’t even consider him as a QB2. Instead, he has lived up to his NFL draft stock as a former first-round pick with what is arguably his best season as a pro when you consider the absolutely abysmal receiving corps he’s had to work with this year. Jones is a top-ten signal caller this year and looks to have secured his job as the Giants’ starter for at least one more season.

Honorable Mentions:

Trevor Lawrence, QB JAX (+6)

Busts

Aaron Rodgers, QB GB (-7)

Not sure if it is age, a bad scheme, a bad supporting cast, the loss of Davante Adams, or Rodgers’ growing fondness for psychedelics, but something has led to a precipitous decline in production. Even at age 39, Rodgers still saw a respectable dynasty ADP of QB11. However, he’s now QB18, and it doesn’t appear he’ll ever be in the QB1 conversation again.

Dak Prescott, QB DAL (-9)

Yes, Prescott missed a few games, which dings him in the overall rankings, but he hasn’t been that good on a per-game basis, either. The Cowboy signal caller is ranked as QB16 on a points-per-game basis, a far cry from what fantasy owners were expecting after he was drafted as QB7. America’s team has been relying on Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard in the running game to secure victories, not Prescott and the passing attack.

Dishonorable Mention:

Kenny Pickett, QB PIT (-5)

Running Back

Breakouts

Tony Pollard, RB DAL (+26)

I’ve been a huge Pollard guy since he came out of Memphis, and I hated his Dallas landing spot behind Ezekiel Elliott in 2019 and hated it even more after Mike McCarthy got the head coaching gig in 2020. Finally, with a career-high in carries and nearing his career-high in targets, Pollard is doing what I always hoped he would do- produce! The 25-year-old current RB6 is dripping with upside even while splitting work with Zeke.

Dameon Pierce, RB HOU (+19)

I love the Senior Bowl, so Pierce was one of my favorite rookies coming into the draft. Sadly, everyone else caught up to my love, and by draft season, he started creeping into the tail end of the first round in rookie drafts and moved up to RB33 in startups. Now the RB14, Pierce has rewarded those who drafted him early and seems to be a fantasy must-have going forward.

Honorable Mentions:

Devin Singletary, RB BUF (+14)

Busts

Jonathan Taylor, RB IND (-19)

Yipes. The first overall pick in most standard leagues and the first position player in superflex leagues, Taylor has been a bust in 2022. He’s currently RB20, so he’s been a serviceable RB2, but that’s far from what anyone was expecting from him this season after amassing 373 PPR points a year ago.

Cam Akers, RB LAR (-34)

Yes, Akers has dealt with injuries and missed time due to the Rams essentially not wanting him on or around the team, but he has come back and looks to be their RB1 for the rest of 2022. In total points scored, he’s currently RB49, but to make matters worse, on a per-game basis, he is RB57. 2022 has been a completely lost year for everything Rams-related, including Akers.

Alvin Kamara, RB NO (-13)

Following an arrest in Las Vegas back in February, Kamara saw his ADP take a slight dip as many believed he would miss some games due to punishment from the NFL. After four seasons as a top-five running back in drafts, Kamara fell to 12th at the position. Even with the post-arrest drop in ADP, Kamara has left fantasy owners feeling ripped off, as he is currently RB25 in standard scoring.

Dishonorable Mentions:

David Montgomery, RB CHI (-5), D’Andre Swift, RB DET (-19)

Wide Receiver

Breakouts

Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR DET (+16)

I was never a big believer in St. Brown. I wasn’t a fan coming out of college, and I thought the bulk of his production last season was a direct result of multiple injuries to all pass catchers in Detroit last year. Well, it looks like I have been proven completely, totally wrong on this one. Currently the WR6 after being drafted as WR22, St. Brown has returned tremendous value to those who believed (unlike me).

Amari Cooper, WR CLE (+22)

Cooper was always too boom-or-bust for me, and I only drafted him in best ball leagues. However, despite being second to Donovan Peoples-Jones in wide receiver snaps for the Browns, Cooper is having a career resurgence in 2022. Drafted as a low-end WR3 at 36th among receivers, Cooper has turned in a WR1 performance up to this point as the current WR12, all the while doing this with Jacoby Brissett under center.

Christian Kirk, WR JAX (+39)

Kirk’s ADP of WR49 was always a bit of a head-scratcher to me. The Jaguars backed up a Brinks’ truck to his front door to come in as their new top receiver. Armed with that knowledge, I was under the assumption that they were going to get him heavily involved early and often and suspected he would be a value based on volume alone. Did I think he would be a top-ten receiver at this point? No, but I thought he would blow his ADP out of the water, and he has so far.

Honorable Mention:

Josh Palmer, WR LAC (+40), Tyler Boyd, WR CIN (+31), Zay Jones, WR JAX (+66), Mack Hollins, WR LV (undrafted)

Busts

Diontae Johnson, WR PIT (-20)

With 113 targets, Johnson is currently seventh in the NFL in that category. On those 113 targets, he has somehow managed to score zero touchdowns. That’s right, not a single score this season. The next lowest TD total among the top ten target leaders is running back Austin Ekeler with five, and he’s a running back. You have to scroll down to 36th in targets (Tyler Higbee, with 81) to find anyone else without a touchdown. This entire Steeler offense is hot garbage, and it has dragged down all their skill-position players.

Michael Pittman, WR IND (-10)

The Colts’ Pittman saw his ADP climb as high as WR12 in drafts. A low-end WR1 on draft day, Pittman has disappointed owners thus far, as he currently sits at WR22. Unfortunately, he’s just one of many Colts who haven’t lived up to the hype surrounding them heading into the 2022 season. Until Indy gets the quarterback position figured out, it’ll be hard to trust anyone on this team long-term.

Courtland Sutton, WR DEN (-14)

As I write this, I’m surprised this is the first Bronco to make the list. Much like many of the busts, the disappointment isn’t necessarily tied to the individual player’s performance but rather an underperforming offense as a whole that failed to meet preseason expectations. The Bronco offense is the league’s biggest disappointment in 2022. With Sutton as the team’s WR1, he has been dragged down with the sinking ship. Honestly, WR39 is alright, considering the team has scored more than 23 points once this season while being the lowest-scoring team in the NFL, averaging 14.9 points per game.

Dishonorable Mentions:

Chase Claypool, WR CHI (-7), Drake London, WR ATL (-14)

Tight End

Breakouts

Evan Engram, TE JAX (+17)

Yes, Engram just scored 39+ points last week to bump him up to the TE4 on the season, but before last week he was TE15. After being drafted as TE21 entering the season, Engram has bounced back to the form we’ve seen in the past, as the former first-round pick has multiple top-15 finishes in his career. Jags’ coach Doug Pederson has a history of featuring fantasy viable tight ends, so Engram is more likely to continue this career resurgence than he is to vanish into obscurity in the future.

Taysom Hill, TE NO (+33)

I had to include Hill here. Somehow a tight end with only seven receptions for 66 yards and two touchdowns has managed to crack the top 12 at the position after being drafted as TE34. That’s because he has 61 carries for 419 rushing yards and five touchdowns to go along with nine completions for 136 passing yards and another touchdown through the air. Hill has one of the more frustrating, if not fun, stat lines to look at in the entire NFL.

Honorable Mention:

Juwan Johnson, TE NO (undrafted), Cade Otton, TE TB (+13), David Njoku, TE CLE (+9)

Busts

Dawson Knox, TE BUF (-8)

The Bills have scored the fourth-most points in the NFL this season, and from the looks of things, very few of them have gone through Dawson Knox. Knox was TE10 in drafts, and he now sits as the TE18 on the season. Of course, you could do a lot worse than Knox each week, but fantasy GMs were expecting everyone on this offense to get a bump up, and it has yet to happen for Knox thus far.

Mike Gesicki, TE MIA (-13)

The Dolphins’ Gesicki has vanished off the face of the earth for fantasy purposes. Over his last three games, he has had zero receptions on only four targets. Over his last five games, he has three receptions on nine targets for 34 yards. It makes me feel good about myself, as he only has three more receptions and 34 more yards than me, and I haven’t left my couch in five weeks. People have low expectations of me, so that’s great for me, but Gesicki was drafted as a top option at the position as the TE12 in drafts. Currently TE25, he’s been a high-end TE3, and that doesn’t help anyone.

Dishonorable Mentions:

Trey McBride, TE AZ (-60), Noah Fant, TE SEA (-7)

Hopefully, you enjoyed this final edition of breakouts and bust for 2022, and you took something away from this series all year. It’s always interesting to see who is over and underperforming year to year and figure out why. Collectively, could we improve our projections heading into the year? Do we, as analysts, get caught up in groupthink? Do injuries to less sexy positions like offensive line impact a team’s skill position players more than we think? How big of an effect do coaching changes have on players for fantasy? The answer to why players exceed their ADP and breakout in a given year, or why a player busts, is a mixture of all of the above. And it is easy to see after the fact with the gift of hindsight. Good luck in the fantasy playoffs if you’re still alive, and if not, the ever-dynamic dynasty off-season is right around the corner, so keep checking back with us here at DLF to help you get ready for 2023.

 

Dynasty Breakouts and Busts Heading into the Fantasy Playoffs