2024 Coaching Changes: The Dynasty Impact of Jerod Mayo to the New England Patriots
Savvy fantasy football managers focus on all positions of a football team, including the coaching staff. Off-season changes can hugely impact skill players’ production at certain positions. Each week, we will look at one of the eight coaches who have found new homes and examine the potential dynasty impact on the key members of that team. We have a bonus this season. Our resident IDP expert, Tom Kislingbury, has joined us to cover the defensive impact of the changes.
New England Patriots: Jerod Mayo Hired to Replace His Former Head Coach
Next up in our coaching change series is the New England Patriots. A change was inevitable. Since the Tom Brady-Bill Belichick split, the former juggernaut Patriots have compiled a 28-36 record with just one playoff appearance (a loss). Fast forward to Monday, January 15th. Mayo was hired just one day after future Hall of Fame coach Belichick was relieved of his duties.
Mayo surpasses Los Angeles Rams coach Sean McVay as the youngest coach in the league. This was all apparently part of the organization’s succession plan. The former player and team captain had been on the staff since 2019 and was often referred to as Bill Jr. during his playing days. His dedication and commitment to the team are unquestionable, as he is said to spend as much time watching game film as his predecessor. This bodes well for the team’s future.
Expected Change in Offensive Philosophy and Approach
The New England Patriots are set for a change in offensive philosophy with the departure of Bill O’Brien and the arrival of Alex Van Pelt. O’Brien, who returned to Foxborough in 2023, lasted just one season, and the offense was still struggling after a 2022 season guided by Joe Judge and Matt Patricia. Van Pelt’s arrival signals a potential shift in strategy, and it will be interesting to see how this impacts the team’s performance.
The good news is that the offense cannot be any worse. In 2023, New England tied for last in points per game (13.9) with the Carolina Panthers. This came after a 2022 season that saw them average 21.4 points per game, 16th best. Van Pelt comes over from the Cleveland Browns and uses an outside zone-based scheme. The former quarterback is well regarded by his peers in the league as a coach who puts his players in a position to succeed. He will have a clean slate and a young group of players to work with, so time will tell.
Core Tenets We Can Expect for the 2024 Patriots Offense Are:
West Coast Heavy
If we sift through the leaves enough, we can find the roots of a Shanahan coaching tree. Van Pelt spent time under Zac Taylor, who worked under the aforementioned Sean McVay. Van Pelt also worked with Kevin Stefanski in Cleveland. This is relevant to the conversation because Stefanski worked under Gary Kubiak in Minnesota. Kubiak, as we know, worked under Mike Shanahan for years. Make sense? Of course it does.
Under Van Pelt, the Cleveland offense has averaged over 20 points per game over the course of his four years there, while New England averaged 13.9 per contest in 2023. Yikes. The former Buffalo Bills quarterback brings some stability to the coordinator position, something they have not had since Josh McDaniels was in town.
Look for some serious West Coast tendencies as the offense evolves under Van Pelt in 2024 and beyond. The biggest question that needs answering is whether Robert Kraft will give him the time he needs to develop his franchise.
Making the Most of the Situation
One thing Van Pelt should be commended for in Cleveland was the job he did overcoming injuries on the 2023 roster. The Brows started five different quarterbacks last season. You read that right. Five. This included a 38-year-old Joe Flacco, a young Dorian Thompson-Robinson, and two journeymen in PJ Walker and Jeff Driskel.
The fact that this team made the playoffs is a testament to the job done by the entire coaching staff. Let’s not forget that Nick Chubb went down in Week 2 to a gruesome knee injury, and Amari Cooper also missed two games. The consensus is that this was an excellent hire for the Pats, and it is exciting to see what the new offense will look like in New England.
Growing Pains
We mentioned above that a major question is how long of a leash Van Pelt will get under Kraft. There are obviously a ton of questions surrounding the offense, which we will cover below. Certainly, there will be bumps in the road along the way. The steadiness Van Pelt will bring should go a long way in navigating through the rough seas. This presents a buy-low opportunity we will discuss more in-depth as we continue.
Offensive Players Most Affected by the Change
Quarterback
Drake Maye
The Mac Jones experiment is over in New England after just three seasons. The Patriots went all in on his replacement, selecting Drake Maye with the third overall pick in the 2024 draft. The jury is still out on whether or not the rookie can be a good NFL signal caller. Jacoby Brissett is currently listed atop the depth chart, but we all know better. Maye is the starter from day one.
The Tarheel grad is the anti-Tom Brady. Termed a gunslinger and sometimes careless with the ball, Maye is a boom-or-bust candidate at his core. With a big arm and freakish athleticism, he will be a developmental project for new coordinator Alex Van Pelt. The offensive line at UNC was less than spectacular in 2023, leaving scouts questioning his true talent and ability. This is why the Van Pelt hire was a good one. He has mentored the likes of Ryan Fitzpatrick, Andy Dalton, Aaron Rodgers, Baker Mayfield, and Deshaun Watson, to name a few. Maye will be in good hands.
Data Courtesy of DLF Player Scoring History App.
We have one season where a quarterback played all 17 games under Van Pelt in Cleveland. The chart above shows us some pretty good numbers were put up. Mayfield finished as the QB10 that season. We would be more than happy with this type of production from the rookie Maye in the next season or two. This is why we have him as a buy (more on that later).
Running Backs
Rhamondre Stevenson/Antonio Gibson
Things get a little tricky here. There was a fairly even split last season in terms of carries between the ageless Ezekiel Elliott and Rhamondre Stevenson. Zeke is back in Big D, and Antonio Gibson has been brought in to replace him. Gibson is much younger and a much better pass catcher. It wouldn’t be difficult to imagine Stephenson taking on the early down work with Gibson playing on passing downs.
Data Courtesy of DLF Player Scoring History App.
The 2023 Browns backfield is probably a pretty good indicator of what we will see in New England in 2024. It was a lot of Jerome Ford, with a little Kareem Hunt sprinkled in. Of course, this all happened after Chubb went down in Week 2. This gives both players value, but at what expense? Given the current cost, it makes Stephenson a sell for us. More on that later also.
Wide Receivers
Ja’Lynn Polk/The Best of the Rest
Pick a wideout, any wideout. Receiver was perhaps the biggest position of need outside of quarterback on the entire offense. Enter Ja’Lynn Polk, the 37th overall pick in 2024. After Polk, it is anyone’s guess as to who will earn targets. Will it be Kendrick Bourne, Demario Douglas, Kayshon Boutte, KJ Osborn, JuJu Smith-Schuster, or Tyquan Thornton? No one knows for sure. DeVante Parker retired, but no one noticed. He was irrelevant from a fantasy perspective in Foxborough.
Data Courtesy of DLF Player Scoring History App.
We can see there were good weeks to be had, although they were few and far between. Bourne showed some promise in 2023 but succumbed to injury in Week 8. Perhaps Polk can capture some of that magic and build a rapport early on with fellow rookie Drake Maye. Bourne will be 29 years old when the season starts. We’d be more interested to see what KJ Osborn will bring to the table and whether or not Kayshon Boutte can turn things around. JuJu also appears to be a shell of himself. Avoid the vets and invest in the youth at a discount.
Tight Ends
Hunter Henry/Austin Hooper
Which one of these veteran tight ends will take on the David Njoku role in the Patriots offense? Our bet would be Henry, but keep an eye on seventh-round rookie Jaheim Bell. Bell is a hybrid-type tight end/receiver dripping with athleticism. The Florida State grad is likely going undrafted in most dynasty formats. Henry should be able to be acquired at a reasonable cost, and you could certainly do worse for a back-end-of-the-bench option in a thin position.
Data Courtesy of DLF Player Gamelog App.
Njoku has quietly been a TE1 over the past two seasons under Van Pelt. Whoever emerges as the team’s top tight end is undoubtedly worth rostering. That just may be Henry or Bell. These are low-cost investments that can pay big dividends in the dynasty format.
Three Moves Dynasty Managers Should Think About:
1. Buy Drake Maye
We noted that Maye is an ultimate boom-or-bust candidate. He was the third quarterback taken in the NFL draft and is the third of the rookie quarterbacks being drafted in startups. But the margin between Maye and JJ McCarthy is closing. Bo Nix is also gaining momentum due to some camp “coach speak.” Let him keep climbing and grab Maye at his current ADP.
Data Courtesy of DLF ADP Over Time App.
A quick look at the DLF Trade Analyzer value chart shows the rookie being valued in a one quarterback league in the same range as DeAndre Hopkins and Jakobi Meyers. Give us the young QB over those aging vets any day of the week. Send out some trade offers for that late second-round pick and draft Maye yourself if you haven’t held your rookie draft to date. Either way, get him while the getting is good.
2. Sell Rhamondre Stevenson
Age, a lousy offense, younger competition, and a new coaching staff. These are a few of the things not to like about Rhamondre Stevenson heading into 2024. The last thing not to like about the Oklahoma grad is his injury history. Stevenson missed five games in 2023 and also missed five back in 2021. That is a substantial amount of time missed.
Data Courtesy of DLF Player Scoring History App.
The final cause for concern is the decline in production per opportunity. We can see above that the soon-to-be 27-year-old has gotten worse in each of his three seasons in both rushing and receiving points per opportunity. This is not a great trend. Sell, sell, sell.
3. Stash Patriots Wideouts
We noted earlier that we have no idea which receiver outside of Ja’Lynn Polk will be relevant to the current version of the New England Patriots. What we do know is that if Van Pelt indeed installs a West Coast offense, there will be plenty of targets to go around.
Data Courtesy of Fantasy Pros.
The Browns did rank 17th in terms of targets to receivers with 335. It is worth noting that WR2 Elijah Moore received 104 of those. We don’t know which wideout will earn that trust from Van Pelt and company, but our best bet would be to stash a few of the most likely candidates.
They don’t cost much to acquire, so if you have room, by all means, stash them away. Kendrick Bourne plays that LWR spot that Moore plays but his backup is an exciting player-Javon Baker. Baker was a fourth-round selection out of UCF and is making big plays in camp already.
matthew judon | credit: robert deutsch
Expected Change in Defensive Philosophy and Approach
It will be strange to see the Patriots without Bill Belichick in charge. The offense absolutely needs a drastic overhaul, but with Jerod Mayo stepping up, we can be confident that the fantastic defensive consistency and performance of the last few years will remain relatively unchanged.
To that point, it’s worth revisiting how good they’ve been in recent years. This table shows how they have fared in Total Defense against the rest of the NFL from 2010 onwards.
That’s four defenses of the past five that have been really good units. And only one really bad defense (2011 was horrible) in 14 years.
This sort of consistency is scarce. Fewer than a handful of teams over that period have had that sort of result. The post-Brady Pats have had many issues, but they’ve been excellent defensively for a long time, which is unsurprising under arguably the most incredible defensive mind in football history.
Defensive Players Most Affected by the Change
Defensive Line
Deatrich Wise
With Judon back and playing more, something has to give. Wise played upwards of 600 snaps last season, which will likely drop by a decent amount.
Linebackers
Matt Judon
Judon managed just 184 snaps last season before injury ended his year. And he’ll be 32 in August. These are worrying facts, but he’s also a player who has excelled under pressure. He should be the top Patriots edge again.
Josh Uche/Anfernee Jennings
Uche had a load of sacks back in 2022 (as a result of an abnormally high finishing rate), but he’s just not that good. Even the Patriots only gave him a one-year, $3 contract.
Jennings is a solid player, but he’s more of a run-defending edge-setter than a pass rusher, which explains his total of three sacks in three seasons as a Patriot.
Ja’Whaun Bentley/Jahlani Tavai /Sione Takitaki
Belichick is a genius. But his linebacker tendencies have looked increasingly odd in recent seasons. He persistently asks them to shoot the A-gaps, which means the LBs he collected were big, square-bodied types.
Bentley and Tavai are 250-pound-plus guys who can regularly go toe-to-toe against interior linemen and not look out of place. To their credit, they haven’t looked terrible in coverage, but it’s not their forte either.
Takitaki is also a relatively big guy in today’s linebacker world, but he’s noticeably more comfortable moving laterally. He’s been used as an anti-tight end weapon in the slot for plenty of his career.
Secondary
Christian Gonzalez
Gonzalez was another key defender who missed much of 2023. He lasted 209 snaps in just three-plus games. Expect him to be the Patriot’s number-one corner this season.
Three Moves IDP Dynasty Managers Should Think About
1. Buy Matt Judon
This is a buy-low gamble. As above, he’s in no way a sure thing. But he has plenty of upside, and his dynasty owner is likely a little nervous about him.
2. Hold Sione Takitaki
There’s a maximum of a one-in-three chance that Takitaki will win an IDP-relevant role this year. But he’s very likely sitting there on waivers, and he’s worth a gamble if you have a spare roster spot.
3. Sell Kyle Dugger
Dugger is versatile and a good NFL safety. But he has no particular reason to be a good IDP. Remember, versatility is not a benefit to IDP productivity at all. It’s often a hindrance. Last season, Dugger managed a couple of sacks and a couple of interceptions. Those are great but not reliable at all. And he managed a sub-average tackling efficiency of 9% (because of that versatility). He’s more name than IDP.
Conclusion
Thanks for reading the fifth of our eight coaching series recaps. We hope you are enjoying the added defensive content. The Patriots made the moves necessary to correct their offensive issues. We hope owner Robert Kraft is patient and knows it will take a year or two to become cohesive. The future could be very bright. Be sure to join the party early, not late. The price of admission will rise as the party becomes more and more successful.
He graduated from SUNY Alfred State in 2015 with a bachelor's degree in Technology Management. When he is not writing or playing video games, Jeff spends time with his wife Naomi and their Bichon Poo, Daisy.
