2024 Coaching Changes: The Dynasty Impact of Jim Harbaugh to the Los Angeles Chargers
Savvy fantasy football managers focus on all positions of a football team, including the coaching staff. Off-season changes can hugely impact skill players’ production at certain positions. Each week, we will look at one of the eight coaches who have found new homes and examine the potential dynasty impact on the key members of that team. We have a bonus this season. Our resident IDP expert, Tom Kislingbury, has joined us to cover the defensive impact of the changes.
Los Angeles Chargers: Jim Harbaugh Hired as Head Coach
Next up in our coaching change series is the Los Angeles Chargers. The recent changes in the coaching staff, with Brandon Staley’s short stint as a head coach coming to an end after a crushing 63-21 loss to the rival Las Vegas Raiders and the departure of long-standing general manager Tom Telesco, could potentially have a significant impact on the team’s performance and the fantasy value of its players.
Former Chargers quarterback Jim Harbaugh was hired as head coach to replace the two, and a Ravens executive named Joe Hortiz was named general manager. No doubt Jim’s brother John gave him the lowdown on Hortiz. The moves had to be made, but it will take some time to see if they will pay off.
Expected Change in Offensive Philosophy and Approach
It is safe to say that we can expect a 180-degree change in offensive philosophy in LA in 2024. The Chargers were third in passing attempts (632) in the NFL in 2023. I am not sure if Harbaugh called that many passing plays during his entire tenure at Michigan. I say that in jest, but in all seriousness, it would take Harbaugh about two college seasons to call that many pass attempts.
From a rushing standpoint, the Chargers were at the other end of the spectrum in their passing game, ranking 24th in rush attempts (431), or 25.23 per contest. In 2023, Michigan ran the ball 563 times in 15 games, good for a 37.53 per game average. Staley and Harbaugh couldn’t be more different in terms of philosophy, which is surprising given Staley’s defensive background. Most defensive guys prefer the ground-and-pound approach.
Core Tenets We Can Expect for the 2024 Chargers Offense Are:
Run Heavy Attack
We just touched on this above. Harbaugh is going to run, run, run in Los Angeles. It was already mentioned that Michigan ran the ball 563 times in 2023. They only threw it 361 times in those same 15 games, good for an average of 24.06 per game. Obviously, the difference won’t be this glaring in the NFL, but it is worth noting.
Baltimore Backfield 2.0
Gone is Austin Ekeler, and brought in to replace him were none other than the former Ravens backfield teammates JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards. More on them later. I have to think that Jim talked to his brother John about them and liked what he had to hear.
Rookie Receiver Staking Claim
Given the draft capital spent on Ladd McConkey, one would think his usage will begin early and often. The Chargers’ new general manager has no ties to Quentin Johnston, and given his underwhelming rookie season, it is no surprise another pick was spent at the position. McConkey is described as an intelligent player. He sounds like a typical Harbaugh guy to me.
Offensive Players Most Affected by the Change
Quarterback
Justin Herbert
Whenever a run-first coach comes to town, the knee-jerk reaction is to expect regression at the quarterback position. That is likely to be the case with Justin Herbert here, also. The Oregon grad has been a QB1 for three of the four seasons he has been in the league, with the one miss coming in 2023 when he only played in 13 games.
Data Courtesy of DLF Player Gamelog App.
Looking closer at the seasons where Herbert succeeded, we see the passing attempts were nearly 600 or above. Expect that number to be closer to what it was in 2023 but over the course of a 17-game season. Not good. I don’t want to roster a signal-caller from a run-centric team in a league that has become pass-heavy.
Running Backs
JK Dobbins/Gus Edwards
I noted early that the Harbaugh brothers likely discussed the running backs from Baltimore before offers were extended to the veterans. It gives me a little bit of joy and cheer to picture the two sitting on a porch somewhere, sipping on a beer and talking all things pigskin. Anyway, about the two running backs.
Data Courtesy of DLF Splits App.
It is interesting to note that Dobbins actually performs better when Edwards plays. The numbers are almost exactly the opposite if we run them in reverse. In other words, Edwards is about three points lower on average when he and Dobbins play together. This has an ugly 2023 Cowboys running back by committee feel to it. Both players are a little better than average real-life football players. The situation in LA makes them below-average fantasy assets.
Wide Receivers
Quentin Johnston/Ladd McConkey/DJ Chark
If we cannot trust the quarterback in this offensive scheme, then it is going to be hard to trust any of his pass catchers. Johnston had a horrible rookie season, and that may be generous. It was so bad that the Chargers spent the 34th overall pick on a player in the same position, McConkey. DJ Chark was a nice addition but it doesn’t really move the needle much from a fantasy perspective, especially in dynasty formats.
Data Courtesy of DLF ADP Over Time App.
Look at the visual above if you don’t want to take our word for it. McConkey, who has not played an NFL snap, is already being drafted higher than the two other starting wideouts in LA. Yikes. This chart also shows how the value for Johnston has cooled over the course of the last calendar year.
Tight Ends
Will Dissly/Hayden Hurst/Donald Parham Jr.
If we can’t trust the quarterbacks, and we can’t trust the receivers, then we certainly cannot trust the tight ends. Especially if they are named Dissly, Hurst, and Parnham. Hurst has as many career catches as Dissly and Parham combined (195 to 194), and that isn’t saying much. The only glimmer of hope is the fact that Vernon Davis saw some success under Harbaugh’s first NFL watch from 2011-2014, but not one of these players comes close to Davis in terms of talent.
Three Moves Dynasty Managers Should Think About:
1. Sell Chargers Running Backs
Despite the run-heavy approach that Harbaugh is sure to bring to the Chargers, we fear a full-blown running back by committee here. The selection of Kimani Vidal in the sixth round and subsequent hype surrounding him only muddies the water even more.
Data Courtesy of DLF Player Gamelog App.
Heck, Harbaugh even turned future Hall of Famer and RB1 Frank Gore into an RB2, opting to give Kendall Hunter roughly one-third of the carries from 2011 to 2014. Take this opportunity for people to be excited about the run-happy offense and expect one or the other of Dobbins and Edwards to take control. We’ve got news for you, it isn’t happening.
2. Sell Justin Herbert
It may seem like I am picking on poor Justin Herbert. I am not, I promise. I just dislike the situation he has been put in. The sixth overall pick in the 2020 draft just signed an extension through 2030, so he is not going anywhere, barring a trade. You have to think he is less than pleased with the turn of events that have transpired.
Data Courtesy of DLF Player Scoring History App.
Keep in mind that Harbaugh is the coach who chose Colin Kaepernick over Alex Smith. We all know how that soap opera ends. Herbert’s future does not look bright from a football or fantasy perspective in my opinion. Get out while the getting is good. The yearly ranking for Herbert will slowly descend from QB1 territory to low-end QB2. Sell, sell, sell.
3. Sell Ladd McConkey
This one may be a bit controversial, but hear me out. The price of acquiring McConkey in drafts is getting expensive despite all of the factors working against him. This is why I am suggesting you sell now. Sure, there is a lot to like with the rookie, but will he ever see the volume needed to pay the cost? Not likely.
Data Courtesy of DLF Trade Analyzer.
Looking at the DLF Trade Analyzer, we can see that the value is that of, say Amari Cooper or even Jordan Love or Kyler Murray. Yes please. Give me that proven talent of a rookie wideout in a poor spot.
joey bosa | © kirby lee-usa today sports
Expected Change in Defensive Philosophy and Approach
Harbaugh brought his Michigan defensive coordinator Jesse Minter with him to the Chargers to run the defense. Minter worked in the NFL from 2017 to 2020 under Harbaugh’s brother, John, in Baltimore but was never the coordinator there. So, we mainly have to rely on his college defenses to understand what sort of scheme he wants to run.
It’s worth noting that although coaches do adapt based on personnel, they mostly like to stick to a solid overall philosophy. Defensive coaches, in particular, where the scheme is based on minimizing weaknesses with a solid curtain rather than highlighting individual playmakers.
As with all defensive schemes, please ignore any simplistic statements such as “he runs a 3-4/4-3”. Every defense in the NFL runs a hybrid of both odd and even fronts, and it’s rare for even the most ardent coaches to get over 30-40% use of odd fronts.
Having said that, we can assume that Minter’s Chargers defense will be defined by its focus on flexibility and versatility. Just like his college defenses and the Ravens teams he worked on. Expect heavy use of even fronts (even if the edges are in 2-point stances). You can also expect that same flexibility on the back end, with high usage of nickel, big nickel, dime, and big dime secondaries. As such, we can anticipate just a single full-time LB role.
Defensive Players Most Affected by the Change
Defensive Line
Morgan Fox
Fox is not a household name in the NFL, but he’s the top interior rusher on this team by a distance. He’s recorded at least 25 pressures in the past four straight seasons and has 20 sacks in that period. Otito Ogbonnia, Poona Ford, Christopher Hinton, and Scot Matlock can only dream about those numbers. Justin Oboigbe had seven sacks for Alabama last season, but he’s a fourth-round rookie.
Linebackers
Joey Bosa/Khalil Mack
The consensus on these two seems to be that Mack is back to being a stud, while Bosa’s injury history makes him impossible to trust. That’s short-term thinking. Injury is not predictable in defenders, and 2023 was Mack’s first good fantasy season since 2020.
Both are fantastic players and could easily be elite fantasy options, but the point is that our expectations for players tend to be strongly flavored by short-term memory. Not to mention dynasty expectations about age.
You’re better off only thinking about the next 12 months. And in that period both of these players have a very similar prognosis. The depth behind them is mediocre, and the coaches are coming from college where the old starter/replacement mechanism is still robust, so we can expect both Bosa and Mack to be high-volume edges with the same injury risk as their peers.
Denzel Perryman/Daiyan Henley
We can expect the Chargers to deploy a single full-time linebacker in 2024. It’s entirely that who owns that job will change from week to week (remember, over 50% of defensive ‘starters miss games every season), but this is the top camp battle to watch for IDP purposes.
Perryman is probably the consensus IDP pick, but he’s played in the NFL for nine seasons and had one good IDP year. That was back in 2021, and it was the only season he had ever played 600 or more snaps.
A year ago, Henley was a popular IDP pick because (despite all evidence to the contrary) LBs drafted on day two always generate excitement. He played a grand total of 54 snaps as a rookie but will fancy his chances against Perryman.
Secondary
Derwin James
James’ five years as a pro have varied a little, but his elite versatility is well-established. People often talk about offensive chess pieces and mismatches, but rarely the counter. Defenders like James may be labeled ‘safety,’ but the whole point of them is they can seamlessly switch from deep, the box, the slot, or even the corner and not be a weak link. Expect James to remain the centerpiece of this defense.
Having said that, please remember that versatility does not always turn into IDP points. It’s suitable for NFL players, but you want your IDPs to be in the box as much as possible. The more time they append in less efficient scoring spots, the worse it is for your team on the whole.
Ja’Sir Taylor
The slot DB has a history of good play and production in Minter (and Harbaugh) schemes, and Taylor has a solid grip on the position. Asante Samuel Jr is a much more popular name, but Taylor has every chance of being more efficient, and in this secondary, we can expect him to play higher-than-average snaps for the position.
Three Moves IDP Dynasty Managers Should Think About
1. Sell Derwin James
James is one of the mere handful of safeties we can confidently expect to score well, but he’s just as dependent on volume (i.e., staying healthy) and big plays as any other safety.
James has played five seasons as a pro and finished three of them as an S1. That’s a brilliant hit rate for the position, but it’s still only 60%. Betting on long-term safety in IDP scoring is a mug’s game. If you can get a good price for James, you can easily find decent replacements.
2. Buy Joey Bosa
Bosa has been written off by so many as incapable of remaining healthy. But people thought the same thing about Keenan Allen before he stayed remarkably healthy for years straight. Bosa is still just 28 years old and has rarely been anything but excellent on the field. For much of his career, he’s been in or around the elite tier of edges. This move is not without risk, but IDP is inherently risky.
3. Roster Morgan Fox
This is enormously league-dependent, but Fox is a decent bet to have several good IDP weeks. If your league uses a combined DL position or mandates a single DT, then you can probably do better, but if your league mandates two or more DTs, or uses best-ball, or has very large rosters, or a high number of teams, he’s well worth keeping around.
Conclusion
Thanks for reading the fourth of our eight coaching series recaps. We hope you are enjoying the added defensive content. This Chargers team will look completely different on the offensive side of the ball from what it did in 2023. Hopefully, the new regime will bring some stability to the organization and some fantasy goodness along with it. The thing is, it may come in the form of the running game, not the passing game. Who would have thought?
He graduated from SUNY Alfred State in 2015 with a bachelor's degree in Technology Management. When he is not writing or playing video games, Jeff spends time with his wife Naomi and their Bichon Poo, Daisy.
