2024 Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update: Javon Baker

The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty managers we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In our Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profiles and where they fit. The basis of the rookie profile involves the usage of STORM analysis, focusing on five key components: Situation, Talent, Opportunity, Risk, and Market.

Situation

Name: Javon Baker

Position: Wide Receiver

Pro Team: New England Patriots

College Team: UCF (Transferred from Alabama)

Draft Status: Round 4; Pick 110

Baker was born and raised in West Atlanta. Sports were an outlet for young Baker, who says he played everything from skateboarding to basketball. Once he picked up football at age 11, that became his top sport. He played most of his high school career at McEachern High School in Powder Springs. As a senior, Baker caught 58 balls for 629 yards and 11 touchdowns. He earned All-America honors, leading McEachern to 12 straight wins and a regional title.

Baker was a four-star recruit in the 2020 class. He earned recruiting interest from major college football programs like Ohio State, Michigan, Florida and Tennessee. Baker decided to commit to Alabama and enrolled in Tuscaloosa for the 2020 season.

After two years at Alabama, Baker only caught nine passes for 116 yards and a touchdown over 21 games. He decided to enter the transfer portal and committed to Kentucky. Kentucky decided to rescind its offer, forcing Baker to pivot to UCF.

Baker’s second and final year in Orlando was his breakout season, where he caught 52 balls for 1,139 yards and seven touchdowns. He led the team in receiving yards and earned First-Team All-Big 12 honors. He declared for the draft and participated in the Senior Bowl. He earned some hype in the pre-draft process, but fell into the beginning of the third day, where the Patriots finally took him off the board in the fourth round. He was the second wide receiver the Patriots selected (Ja’Lynn Polk in the second was the first) and he’ll team up with rookie quarterback Drake Maye.

Talent

 

Javon Baker’s Combine Results:

• Height: 6’ 1”
• Weight: 202 lbs
• Arm: 32 1/4”
• Hand: 9 5/8”
• 40-Yard: 4.54
• 20-Yard Split: 2.65
• 10-Yard Split: 1.58
• Vertical Jump: 37”
• Broad Jump: 10’ 1”

Data courtesy of RAS Football.

Baker tested out as an average athlete, but his explosiveness really shines on tape. He was a deep-ball maven averaging 21.9 YPC last year and catching five balls for over 50 yards last year. Pro Football Focus ranked Baker eighth in all of college football last season with 574 deep yards. While he could often be seen streaking down the field, he also was a weapon around the line of scrimmage. The Knights utilized Baker’s skill in the screen game and out of the backfield. He averaged 7.2 yards after the catch per reception, 57th in college football last season. He was extremely efficient last season, gaining 3.21 yards per route run. That was 9th in college football out of wide receivers with at least 30 targets.

Data courtesy of Reception Perception.

He struggled to get on the field at Alabama, but claims he learned a lot from Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith. He struggles at the catch point at times, leading to 15 drops over his college career. He uses his body to finish catches at times and can be prone to lack of focus drops. He’ll need to work on this to develop into an NFL wide receiver.

He’s a solid route runner but his footwork can use some work. He handled press coverage really well, but he can lose focus at the top of his routes. He ran a rather limited route tree and spent the vast majority of his snaps outside on the left side of the alignment. There’s plenty of room for development with Baker, but he’s more polished than many of the other wide receivers being considered in this range of drafts.

Opportunity

New England Patriots Depth Chart:

Depth Chart from 4for4 team depth charts.

The Patriots were desperately in need of wide receiver help, especially on the outside of their formations. Demario Douglas looked solid as a slot receiver in his rookie year, but Kendrick Bourne has been tough to trust and JuJu Smith-Schuster was a total bust of a signing.

While the need was there, the Patriots also aggressively targeted the position this off-season. KJ Osborn was an interesting signing in free agency. He was living in the shadows of Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen and Jordan Addison for years in Minnesota, so he could be a better wide receiver than he’s given credit for. They also used their second-round pick on Ja’Lynn Polk, who will get the first chance at a starting wide receiver role in the Patriots offense.

Baker is likely in a competition this year with Bourne and Osborn for the second outside wide receiver spot in this offense. Even if he doesn’t win the job this year, he’s likely looked upon as one of the future mainstays of the Patriots wide receiver room. If Drake Maye develops into a good NFL quarterback, he’ll have a talented young wide receiver room of Polk, Douglas and Baker for years to come.

Risk

Image courtesy of Sports Reference.

While Bill Belichick is no longer making the draft picks in New England, the team has a horrible history of drafting wide receivers. Kayshon Boutte. Tyquan Thornton. N’Keal Harry. You have to go all the way back to Julian Edelman to find a fantasy-relevant wide receiver. This is just a narrative, and past results have no holding on future results, but it is a risk that is worth bringing up.

Baker was also the second receiver the Patriots drafted in this draft. Polk will get more leeway to succeed as a professional, and they clearly valued him over Baker, so he may always play second fiddle to Polk. Despite that, he was a fourth-round pick, which is significant draft capital for a wide receiver.

Baker needs to develop his skillset and technique to take on NFL defenders. You can get away with sloppy routes at the college level, but everything is tougher at the NFL level. He makes some very impressive catches against contesting defenders, but he also has too many drops.

Finally, Baker’s value will be tied to the success of Drake Maye. Maye is a developmental prospect himself who needs to prove he can succeed in the NFL. Luckily, Maye is a strong-armed quarterback who loves airing the ball out. Baker will be one of his favorite targets down the field.

Market

Data courtesy of DLF June Dynasty ADP.

Data courtesy of DLF ADP History.

In dynasty startup drafts, Walker is being selected as the 73rd wide receiver and 161th overall. He’s being selected after Rashod Bateman and Curtis Samuel, just before Wan’Dale Robinson and Gabe Davis. There are some veteran wide receivers going later than Baker who I’d rather take. I’m a believer in drafting to win now and win later. Baker may be a year or two away, so I’d rather take a player I can count on more for this year.

In 1QB rookie drafts, he’s going in the middle of the third round at 30 overall. He’s the 16th wide receiver off the board, after Malachi Corley and before Luke McCaffrey. He’s a really solid value at this point in rookie drafts, and I’d take him over several players going ahead of him, like Bucky Irving, Kimani Vidal and Troy Franklin. I’m excited for the youth movement in New England and believe the trio of Maye, Polk and Baker will succeed.

Javon Baker’s 1QB trade value via the DLF Trade Analyzer Tool.

Baker is a nice value to target in trades right now because of his minuscule value. He can be had for next to nothing, including some over-the-hill running backs and wide receivers. Baker is a best fit for a rebuilding team, or a team with enough space to be comfortable with using a roster spot on him. He’s not likely to make a huge fantasy impact this season, but as the year goes on, he’ll get more work and his value will increase.

Javon Baker is a talented wide receiver in a bit of a complicated situation. He needs some time to develop into a professional receiver, and on the Patriots, he may just have the time to do it. He’ll likely slot in behind Kendrick Bourne on the Patriots depth chart in his rookie year, and could be a weapon utilized on deep balls or on gadget plays. Baker fell in the draft and landed on a bad football team, so he is a good value in dynasty fantasy football leagues, but you will need to be patient with his development.