Dynasty Statistical Edges: Week Two

Ryan McDowell

If you follow me on Twitter, you’ve probably noticed a series of tweets I share on a weekly basis regarding player and team defensive performances, all from a fantasy lens. I’m going to be sharing some of that same information with you here.

I use this each week as I am making my own lineup and waiver wire decisions and thought you might find this valuable as well.

Note: The scoring system used for this data is always PPR with four points for passing touchdowns.

Quarterbacks

Week Two QB1s (top 12 scorers)

RankPlayerFantasy Points This Week
QB1Daniel Jones, NYG30.74
QB2Kirk Cousins, MIN28.56
QB3Russell Wilson, DEN25.92
QB4Jalen Hurts, PHI25.22
QB4 (Tie)Joshua Dobbs, ARI25.22
QB6Josh Allen, BUF23.66
QB7Geno Smith, SEA23.12
QB8Jared Goff, DET22.92
QB9Lamar Jackson, BAL22.88
QB10Justin Herbert, LAC22.20
QB11CJ Stroud, HOU21.46
QB12Desmond Ridder, ATL21.38

Daniel Jones got it done this week, leading the Giants to a huge second-half comeback over the tanking Cardinals. He scored almost all of those 30.74 fantasy points in the second half. The other good news of Week Two was the bouncebacks for superstar signal callers, including Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson. Each player earned their first QB1 game of the young season after somewhat disappointing debuts.

In Houston, rookie CJ Stroud gave us some reason for hope as he notched his first QB1 finish, along with his first 300-yard passing game. After falling behind the Colts early, the Texans understandably abandoned the run game and tossed the second-most attempts of the week. He finished with 384 yards and two scores. With Houston expected to enter most games as underdogs, this is a promising game for Stroud’s fantasy production moving forward. Move over Blake Bortles, we might have a new garbage-time king.

Season-Long QB1s (top 12 scorers)

RankPlayerFantasy Points This Season
QB1Kirk Cousins, MIN45.02
QB2Jordan Love, GB43.34
QB3Justin Herbert, LAC43.06
QB4Russell Wilson, DEN41.10
QB5Patrick Mahomes, KC40.74
QB6Tua Tagovailoa, MIA39.40
QB7Anthony Richardson, IND38.66
QB8Mac Jones, NE37.88
QB9Jalen Hurts, PHI37.72
QB10Jared Goff, DET36.94
QB11Sam Howell, WAS36.44
QB12Daniel Jones, NYG35.20

With two weeks of data, we’ll begin collecting season-long data, with obvious expectations for tons of shifting early in the process. The Minnesota running game has been so bad the Vikings and Kirk Cousins have had no other option than to throw the ball. A lot. Cousins is second in passing yardage and tied for the lead in touchdowns in the early going. Of course, we don’t expect him to maintain this top position.

First-time starters Jordan Love (QB2), Anthony Richardson (QB7), and Sam Howell (QB11) have fared well through two games. Love is tied for the lead in passing touchdowns, while Richardson is tied for the lead in rushing scores, even after missing much of Sunday’s game.

Most QB1 Games This Season

QB1 GamesPlayers
2Justin Herbert, Kirk Cousins, Russell Wilson
1Tua Tagovailoa, Mac Jones, Jordan Love, Anthony Richardson, Deshaun Watson, Patrick Mahomes, Trevor Lawrence, Brock Purdy, Baker Mayfield, Sam Howell, Daniel Jones, Desmond Ridder, Geno Smith, Jalen Hurts, Jared Goff, Joshua Dobbs, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, CJ Stroud

Most QB1 Games Allowed

QB1 Games AllowedTeam DSTs
2ARI, CIN, IND, LV, MIN, PHI
1CHI, DEN, DET, GB, JAX, LAC, MIA, NYG, PIT, SEA, TB, TEN, WAS
0ATL, BAL, BUF, CAR, CLE, DAL, HOU, KC, LAR, NE, NO, NYJ, SF

There are a half-dozen teams who have allowed a QB1 performance in each of the first two weeks. While it’s very early in the data-collection process, we’ll start with those teams. The Eagles have allowed the most fantasy points to the position by more than two points per game. In Week Three, Philly matches up with Tampa Bay, offering Baker Mayfield a chance to continue his solid start to the season. Arizona will be a team to target all year long, at every position. This week, they get Dak Prescott and the Cowboys. Unfortunately for the Dallas offensive stars, their defense has been so dominant that we have seen little from Prescott and company. Other matchups to lean into this week include Matthew Stafford against the Bengals, Lamar Jackson facing the Colts, and Justin Herbert against the Vikings. Finally, maybe this is the week that Kenny Pickett turns things around against a Raiders defense that has already given up a pair of QB1 games.

Over one-third of the league has yet to allow a QB1 game so far, so let’s turn to fantasy points allowed to narrow the pool. The Browns are the only team in the league surrendering less than ten fantasy points per game to the quarterback position. That does not bode well for Ryan Tannehill this week, not that you were starting him anyway. The Panthers are surprisingly the only other team to give up fewer than 12 points per game and this week, they face the veteran-led Seahawks and Geno Smith. Finally, Buffalo (vs. Howell) and New Orleans (vs. Love) are other matchups to shy away from.

Running Backs

Week Two RB1s (top 12 scorers)

RankPlayerFantasy Points This Week
RB1Brian Robinson, WAS28.90
RB2Kyren Williams, LAR28.00
RB3Saquon Barkley, NYG27.20
RB4D’Andre Swift, PHI27.10
RB5Raheem Mostert, MIA25.70
RB6Jerome Ford, CLE24.10
RB7Christian McCaffrey, SF22.50
RB8Rachaad White, TB21.30
RB9Bijan Robinson, ATL21.20
RB10Zack Moss, IND20.70
RB11Tony Pollard, DAL19.90
RB11 (Tie)James Cook, BUF19.90

During his rookie season, Commanders back Brian Robinson never finished higher than RB15 in a single week. Combining that with his limited pass-game role earned Robinson the label of being a low-upside fantasy option, and his value reflected that. At some points this offseason, he was even being drafted after his backup, Antonio Gibson. Robinson enjoyed a career-best game in Week Two against the Broncos, totaling 129 yards and two touchdowns.

If you adopted the popular Zero-RB strategy for your dynasty startup this past offseason, you might have landed Robinson, or you may have loaded up on backups in the double-digit rounds. That might have netted you players like Kyren Williams, Jerome Ford, and Zack Moss. Each of those backs are now starters for their respective teams and each produced as an RB1 in Week Two.

Williams is the story of the early season at the running back position, having notched two RB1 games now. The Rams also officially moved on from Cam Akers, erasing any doubt about who the top back would be moving forward.

Finally, Ford is considered a starter due to the devastating injury suffered by star back Nick Chubb on Monday night. Ending his season, and potentially even his career, Chubb’s knee buckled following a hit from Minkah Fitzpatrick. Even after adding veteran Kareem Hunt, I expect Ford to maintain the lead-back role, and flourish in this offense.

robinsonbrian

isaiah j. downing-usa today sports

Season-Long RB1s (top 12 scorers)

RankPlayerFantasy Points This Season
RB1Christian McCaffrey, SF48.40
RB2Kyren Williams, LAR45.40
RB3Brian Robinson, WAS42.50
RB4Tony Pollard, DAL42.10
RB5Bijan Robinson, ATL41.50
RB6Raheem Mostert, MIA38.70
RB7Saquon Barkley, NYG36.50
RB8Derrick Henry, TEN32.40
RB9James Cook, BUF30.20
RB10Rhamondre Stevenson, NE29.90
RB11Tyler Allgeier, ATL29.20
RB12Kenneth Walker, SEA29.10

The current list of season-long top scorers at the running back position definitely includes some surprises. We expected to see rookie Bijan Robinson high on the list but not his teammate Tyler Allgeier. After a big Week One, Allgeier took a step back last week. This could be a fluke or a sign of the rookie taking over that backfield completely.

It’s getting lost behind the Williams breakout for the Rams and Christian McCaffrey’s unreal start to the season, but Tony Pollard has been amazing for the Cowboys. He should be aided all season long by the best defense in the league.

Most RB1 Games This Season

RB1 GamesPlayers
2Bijan Robinson, Christian McCaffrey, Kyren Williams, Tony Pollard
1Aaron Jones, Austin Ekeler, Breece Hall, Brian Robinson, D’Andre Swift, James Cook, Joshua Kelley, Jerome Ford, Nick Chubb, Rachaad White, Raheem Mostert, Roschon Johnson, Saquon Barkley, Travis Etienne, Tyler Allgeier, Zack Moss

Most RB1 Games Allowed

RB1 Games AllowedTeam DSTs
2CAR, MIA
1BUF, CHI, CIN, GB, IND, NYG, PIT, SEA
0ARI, ATL, BAL, CLE, DAL, DEN, DET, HOU, JAX, KC, LAC, LAR, LV, MIN, NE, NO, NYJ, PHI, SF, TB, TEN, WAS

Remember how good Carolina looked against opposing quarterbacks? This is why. Teams are running all over them. The Panthers are one of two teams to allow over 31 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. Kenneth Walker should already be fired up in your lineups, but this will just make you feel even more confident about that decision. The team allowing the most fantasy points to running backs somehow has not allowed a single RB1 game yet, but let’s not get confused into thinking the Raiders are a matchup to avoid. If Najee Harris can’t run on the Raiders, then we’ll know how bad it is. The Dolphins are the other team that has already allowed a pair of RB1 performances and this week square off against Javonte Williams, Samaje Perine, and the Broncos. Get both into your lineups!

The Titans have allowed 15.8 fantasy points to opposing running backs…total. Jerome Ford was the talk of the dynasty community after he stepped in for an injured Nick Chubb last Monday. As good as Ford could be for fantasy teams this year, he’s unlikely to have a fantasy-starter level game against Tennessee. You really don’t want to start any opposing player against the Cowboys defense and that includes veteran running back James Conner. He might see plenty of volume, but he won’t see many holes in that defense.

Wide Receivers

Week Two WR1s (top 12 scorers)

RankPlayerFantasy Points This Week
WR1Keenan Allen, LAC31.10
WR2Puka Nacua, LAR30.10
WR3Mike Evans, TB29.10
WR4Tee Higgins, CIN28.90
WR5Nico Collins, HOU27.60
WR6Tyler Lockett, SEA25.90
WR7CeeDee Lamb, DAL25.30
WR8Justin Jefferson, MIN24.90
WR9Josh Reynolds, DET23.60
WR10DeVonta Smith, PHI23.10
WR11George Pickens, PIT22.70
WR12Deebo Samuel, SF22.10

All week long, analysts suggested that it would be a Keenan Allen week when the Chargers matched up against the Titans. The veteran did not disappoint. Catching eight passes for 80 yards and two scores, Allen’s 31.1 fantasy points represent his most since Week 11 of the 2020 season. Puka Nacua did it again, thanks to massive volume. With 35 targets through two weeks, the rookie has ten more than any other player in the league. Simply unbelievable.

Texans receiver Nico Collins is off to a fast start and looks to have staying power. Against the Colts, Collins set new career-high numbers with seven receptions, 146 yards, and 27.6 fantasy points. He’s worthy of a weekly WR3 spot in your lineup.

Season-Long WR1s (top 12 scorers)

RankPlayerFantasy Points This Season
WR1Tyreek Hill, MIA59.50
WR2Puka Nacua, LAR52.00
WR3Justin Jefferson, MIN48.90
WR4Mike Evans, TB47.70
WR5Keenan Allen, LAC45.30
WR6Nico Collins, HOU41.60
WR7DeVonta Smith, PHI40.80
WR8Brandon Aiyuk, SF40.20
WR9Stefon Diggs, BUF39.80
WR10Michael Pittman, IND37.30
WR11CeeDee Lamb, DAL37.00
WR12Josh Reynolds, DET35.60

Tyreek Hill is the WR1, thanks to his massive Week One game, but Nacua is knocking on the door and is the only other player in the league to exceed 50 fantasy points through two games. There was a great deal of skepticism about Colts receiver Michael Pittman entering this season, but he has been excellent so far. Pittman is the clear top target for rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson and only three receivers in the league have more targets through two weeks.

Josh Reynolds has gone from waiver wire to WR1 in short order. While Amon-Ra St. Brown remains the top target in the Lions’ passing game, Reynolds has been an excellent complement so far, serving as the big-play threat while Jameson Williams is suspended. Pencil Reynolds into your lineup as a flex option for at least the next month as Williams continues to sit out.

Most WR1 Games This Season

WR1 GamesPlayers
2Justin Jefferson, Puka Nacua
1Amon-Ra St. Brown, Brandon Aiyuk, Calvin Ridley, CeeDee Lamb, Chris Olave, Deebo Samuel, DeVonta Smith, George Pickens, Jakobi Meyers, Josh Reynolds, Keenan Allen, Kendrick Bourne, Michael Pittman, Mike Evans, Nico Collins, Rashid Shaheed, Stefon Diggs, Tee Higgins, Tyler Lockett, Tyreek Hill

Most WR1 Games Allowed

WR1 Games AllowedTeam DSTs
2TEN
1DEN, IND, JAX, KC, LAC, NYJ, PHI, PIT, SEA, TB
0ARI, ATL, BAL, BUF, CAR, CHI, CIN, CLE, DAL, DET, GB, HOU, LAR, LV, MIA, MIN, NE, NO, NYG, SF, WAS

Only one team has allowed two WR1 games through the first two weeks of the season. While you don’t want to play your running backs against the Titans, pass catchers are safe. Fire up Amari Cooper and maybe even Elijah Moore in Week Three.

Four teams are surrendering more than 50 fantasy points each week to opposing wide receiver corps. Along with the Titans, the Chargers (vs. Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison), Colts (vs. Zay Flowers) and Seahawks (vs. Adam Thielen) are giving it up to wide receivers.

Only one team has allowed less than 42 fantasy points to opposing receivers through the first two games and that is, of course, Dallas. You already know but Marquise Brown and his teammates belong on your fantasy bench this week. Other teams to shy away from this week include the Browns (vs. DeAndre Hopkins, Treylon Burks), Panthers (vs. DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett), and Buffalo (vs. Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson.)

Tight Ends

Week Two TE1s (top 12 scorers)

RankPlayerFantasy Points This Week
TE1TJ Hockenson, MIN25.60
TE2Hunter Henry, NE17.20
TE3Mark Andrews, BAL15.50
TE4Darren Waller, NYG13.60
TE5Travis Kelce, KC12.60
TE6Evan Engram, JAX11.70
TE7Zach Ertz, ARI11.60
TE8Sam LaPorta, DET11.30
TE9Kylen Granson, IND10.60
TE10Logan Thomas, WAS10.20
TE11Jake Ferguson, DAL10.10
TE11 (Tie)Cade Otton, TB10.10

Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce each made their season debuts in Week Two. The duo wasted no time in establishing themselves as top options, each finishing among the top five scorers for the week.

Perhaps the most surprising performance from the tight end position has come from a familiar name, Cardinals veteran Zach Ertz. There was uncertainty if Ertz would be healthy enough to start the season or if he would even make Arizona’s final roster, given their move towards a rebuild. So far, he leads all tight ends with 18 targets and is the safest bet for production in the Cardinals passing game.

Season-Long TE1s (top 12 scorers)

RankPlayerFantasy Points This Season
TE1TJ Hockenson, MIN37.10
TE2Hunter Henry, NE33.80
TE3Evan Engram, JAX21.60
TE4Darren Waller, NYG20.20
TE4 (Tie)Sam LaPorta, DET20.20
TE6Hayden Hurst, CAR20.10
TE7Zach Ertz, ARI19.70
TE8Logan Thomas, WAS18.50
TE8 (Tie)Kylen Granson, IND18.50
TE10Cole Kmet, CHI17.20
TE11Dalton Kincaid, BUF15.90
TE12Mark Andrews, BAL15.50
TE12 (Tie)Dawson Knox, BUF15.5

Veteran tight end TJ Hockenson has picked up just where he left off last season. Of course, that is somewhat skewed by stars like Kelce and Andrews missing Week One, but it doesn’t take away from Hockenson’s performance. Veteran Hunter Henry has finished as a top-two fantasy scorer in each of the first two games, something he didn’t do at all last season. The addition of Mike Gesicki in New England has been virtually meaningless so far.

Rookie Dalton Kincaid has yet to produce a TE1 game and neither has his veteran teammate Dawson Knox. Yet their consistency and volume in the passing game have been enough to earn them a spot in the TE1 range through two weeks. It feels like a breakout game is coming for Kincaid.

Most TE1 Games This Season

TE1 GamesPlayers
2Evan Engram, Hunter Henry, Logan Thomas, Sam LaPorta, TJ Hockenson, Zach Ertz
1Adam Trautman, Blake Bell, Cade Otton, Cole Kmet, Darren Waller, Donald Parham, Harrison Bryant, Hayden Hurst, Jake Ferguson, Kylen Granson, Mark Andrews, Travis Kelce

Most TE1 Games Allowed

TE1 Games AllowedTeam DSTs
2ARI, CIN, KC, MIA, PHI
1ATL, CHI, DEN, DET, GB, HOU, IND, JAX, LV, NYG, NYJ, SEA, TB, WAS
0BAL, BUF, CAR, CLE, DAL, LAC, LAR, MIN, NE, NO, PIT, SF, TEN

The Cardinals are once again a team to target, this time at the tight end position. Jake Ferguson leads the entire league with eight red zone targets, twice as many as any other tight end in the league. He’s an excellent play this week. Other teams that have already given up a pair of TE1 games include the Bengals (vs. Tyler Higbee), Chiefs (vs. Cole Kmet), Dolphins (vs. Adam Trautman), and Eagles (vs. Cade Otton.)

The Saints have somehow only allowed five total fantasy points to tight ends through two games. Not a good sign for rookie Luke Musgrave. Other teams to avoid this week include Buffalo (vs. Logan Thomas), Baltimore (vs. Kylen Granson), Cleveland (vs. Chig Okonkwo), and New England (vs. Tyler Conklin.)

Finally, here is the chart summarizing how teams have fared against each position. I’ve also included the schedule for this week for reference.

chart

ryan mcdowell
Dynasty Statistical Edges: Week Two