Tactical Transactions: Moves to Make Before Week 13
Life gets tough. Work, family, surprise car trouble, trying to maintain relationships with your friends… what’s that, your water heater died too? Sometimes it feels like it just never stops. Murphy’s Law, right? It is important during those times to always keep priorities in order and focus on what you can control. Don’t let what’s out of your hands bother you. It is easier said than done I realize, but important to try to do.
Likewise, getting through a fantasy football season is tough too. (I know this is a stretch but go down the journey with me). Control the things you can control. We spend seven months without football researching prospects, navigating rookie drafts, and looking for the perfect trades to craft our rosters into our perfect vision and things rarely go according to plan. Plan A becomes Plan B which then becomes Plan C which inevitably becomes Plan D, and that’s okay.
Like a quarterback staying light on their feet during their drop-back, you need to be prepared to be nimble with your dynasty rosters at all points. A competing roster can be turned on its head in a single week when multiple players are lost to injury (something we’ve seen often this season). Likewise, A middling team could find itself in much better standing when said injuries happen and they’re the ones who roster the backups thrust into must-start territory. This is why you should always be thinking about the potential moves you could make. Let’s talk about them.
Buy (Rebuilding Superflex Teams) – Kirk Cousins, QB MIN
Achilles injuries are scary. But, for a quarterback known for adding literally nothing with his legs, maybe it’s a little less scary. An unknown future can be scary too. Cousins’ contract is up at the end of the year and it’s long been speculated that the Vikings will be moving on from him at the end of the season. Joshua Dobbs coming to town and playing well certainly adds fuel to that fire as well. Still, Cousins likely remains a starting quarterback in the NFL even if it’s not with Minnesota. In a league where there are teams struggling to find competent quarterback play, Cousins will have a job. He is an interesting investment for teams already looking at next year.
Currently, Cousins can likely be acquired for a future second-round rookie draft pick or equivalent player value. Once he is starting again, he’ll easily be worth a first-round rookie draft pick again so the time to buy if you want to is now. If I have an extra second sitting around, I’d happily send it for Cousins. I’d also be willing to send players like Najee Harris, Adam Thielen, and Jakobi Meyers.
Sell (All Teams) – James Cook, RB BUF
I’ll be upfront here, I’ve never been in on Cook. As a prospect, I thought he projected to be a running back who could be an efficient player but one who will always be in a full-on committee and the price for entry never reflected that. Now, he has shown that playmaking ability in the NFL that made him an intriguing prospect to begin with. It’s just also come along with my fear of him always being in a committee as now over a year and a half into his career, Buffalo has always made sure to pair him with another running back who fills in for him in the red zone and on third downs as Cook is not a preferred pass blocker. Currently, he just isn’t making a big enough impact in weekly lineups on a regular basis to warrant his cost. Despite this, there’s still some excitement for Cook so I think it’s best to get out while you can still get something of value for him.
My preferred course of action would be to try and tier up or down. I would add a second-round rookie draft pick to Cook to acquire D’Andre Swift, Javonte Williams, or Josh Jacobs. Going the other way, I’d take anything on top of David Montgomery, Rachaad White, and Isiah Pacheco (all of whom I prefer to Cook straight up) to move off from Cook.
Buy (Rebuilding Teams) – Marvin Mims, WR DEN
Mims was kind of quietly one of the better wide receiver prospects after the big four of Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jordan Addison, Zay Flowers, and Quentin Johnston this year. He was an early declare and a highly productive player with speed who’s just a tad undersized. Landing with the Broncos was a bit of a precarious landing spot because there were established veterans there already in Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy but there had been rumors that one or both of them could be traded so there was some warranted hope for Mims potential as a rookie. But both Sutton and Jeudy stayed and despite looking like the most explosive player on the offense, Mims hasn’t been given the opportunities most think he deserves.
Mims is a classic case of betting on talent. In his limited opportunities he’s shown that he can play in the NFL and that he’s capable of an explosive play at a moment’s notice. It’s worth noting that he’s been playing more snaps over his last three games with snap percentages of 69%, 56%, and 48% and it makes sense for his snaps to continue to grow as the season continues. If you’re capable of buying Mims for anything less than the equivalent of a second-round rookie pick, I do that easily. I’m also interested in tiering down from Treylon Burks, Tyler Lockett, and DeAndre Hopkins for Mims and a plus.
Buy (Competing Teams) – Mike Evans, WR TB
What a year Evans is having after being doubted all off-season. He sits as the WR9 PPR in points per game with 17.5 on a 23.8% target share. Both are his highest since 2019. Evans has clearly found a connection with Baker Mayfield that is working and shows no signs of slowing down. Despite this, he continues to be valued as a WR3 in dynasty due to his age at 30 years old. This makes Evans a prime target for competing teams looking for that last piece to put them over the top. There’s reason to believe his success will continue after this year as well. Physically Evans still looks good, he was never a burner after all, and he still shows good athleticism for his size while being able to consistently create separation. There’s also reason to believe Mayfield will be retained after this year as he’s having a career resurgence himself so may be more than a one-year bet.
The price I’m looking to pay for Evans would be less than a first-round rookie draft pick. Two seconds would be nice and finding a way to acquire him without using draft capital is ideal. Using pure draft capital for an older player, even one you are confident in for the next year, isn’t ideal as we know a player like Evans won’t see his dynasty market value rising anymore whereas we know draft capital will only go up in value until it has to be used. Trading down from Christian Kirk, Terry McLaurin, or Chris Godwin to Evans while getting a plus on top are all great trades.
Buy (Rebuilding Teams) – Michael Mayer, TE LV
Lost in all the fervor for his fellow rookie tight ends, Mayer – who was once thought of as a can’t-miss prospect – now sits as a great target for teams looking to the future. Similar to Trey McBride last year, we shouldn’t let other tight ends finding early success change our thoughts on Mayer as a talent yet. It normally takes a year for TEs to make their mark in the NFL and Mayer shouldn’t be held to a different standard just because we got one of the best rookie tight end classes of all time. The fantasy points might not be there yet but at least we can hang our hat on the fact that Mayer has become a full-time tight end for the Raiders having played at least 80% of the snaps in each of the last five games. Don’t panic and have faith in the prospect profile.
If you’re lucky, the Mayer manager is panicking and you’ll be able to get him for a discount. If that’s not the case, trading for Mayer might require you to get a little creative as the person who has him on their team likely drafted him and could be thinking the same way I am. Trading down from Cole Kmet or Luke Musgrave to Mayer while getting a rookie draft pick thrown in would be nice. I’d also look to find out if your potential trade partner could use a different skill position player as I would rather have Mayer than players like Quentin Johnston, Courtland Sutton, Keaton Mitchell, and Raheem Mostert.
Remember, keep your priorities straight, focus on what you control, and go win some dynasty trades.
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