Dynasty Statistical Edges: Week Ten

If you follow me on Twitter, you’ve probably noticed a series of tweets I share on a weekly basis regarding player and team defensive performances, all from a fantasy lens. I’m going to be sharing some of that same information with you here.

I use this each week as I am making my own lineup and waiver wire decisions and thought you might find this valuable as well.

Note: The scoring system used for this data is always PPR with four points for passing touchdowns.

Quarterbacks

Week 9 QB1s

There were quite a few noteworthy quarterback performances in Week Nine but the headliner by a wide margin was rookie CJ Stroud. In a historic performance, Stroud tossed five touchdowns and 470 yards, leading his Texans squad to a comeback win over Tampa Bay. Stroud’s strong start to his career has him locked in as a dynasty QB1 and gaining value every week. Also, I received a couple of questions regarding Taysom Hill’s inclusion on this list. I understand the questions and even complaints but the Saints list him as a quarterback, so that’s what I defer to, even though some fantasy league hosts consider him a tight end. Regardless of his position designation, he’s putting up fantasy points and belongs in starting lineups once again.

Season-Long QB1s

Stroud’s massive performance in Week Nine easily made him the top riser of the week as he moved from outside of the QB1 range to the QB7 spot. Dak Prescott is heating up after a slow start to his season and he also moves onto the list as the QB11. Stroud and Prescott replace bye week fallers Brock Purdy and Russell Wilson. If Stroud hadn’t stolen all of last week’s headlines, Josh Dobbs, playing for his new team in relief of the injured Jaren Hall, would’ve been the top story. Dobbs not only finished as a QB1 once again, but led his team to a comeback win. He moves up to the QB10 on the season.

Most QB1 Games This Season

Most QB1 Games Allowed

The Bears and Commanders have each allowed seven QB1 games this season, two more than any other team in the league. This week, the Commanders offer Geno Smith and the struggling Seahawks offense a chance to get right, while the Bears host rookie Bryce Young and the Panthers later tonight. Even this juicy matchup isn’t enough to use Young in fantasy lineups this week. Other defenses to target when making a quarterback decision this week include the Cardinals (vs. Taylor Heinicke), Jaguars (vs. Brock Purdy), Buccaneers (vs. Will Levis), Chargers (vs. Jared Goff), and Broncos (vs. Josh Allen.)

The Ravens and Chiefs have each only allowed just one QB1 performance this year. Kansas City is taking the week off but Baltimore will face off with division-foe Deshaun Watson and the Browns. Even after a solid return to the field last week, I am staying away from this matchup in Week 10. Other teams to avoid, if possible, this week include the Panthers (vs. Tyson Bagent), Giants (vs. Prescott), Packers (vs. Kenny Pickett), Bills (vs. Russell Wilson), and Titans (vs. Baker Mayfield.) Each of these teams are allowing less than 18 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks.

Running Backs

Week 9 RB1s

Some key running backs came through with big performances in Week Nine, including what felt like the real return of Aaron Jones and Jonathan Taylor. The most exciting player we saw from a dynasty perspective was undrafted rookie Keaton Mitchell, who turned nine carries into 138 yards and a touchdown in the first real action of his career. We’ll find out this week, and moving forward, if Mitchell was a one-week fluke or is here to stay.

© dan powers/usa today network-wis

Season-Long RB1s

Josh Jacobs scored twice to help the new-look Raiders get a big win, and Jacobs moved up from RB9 last week to the RB4 currently. Rachaad White and Brian Robinson joined the RB1 ranks, replacing the injured Kyren Williams and the suddenly disappointing Bijan Robinson.

Most RB1 Games This Season

Most RB1 Games Allowed

A quartet of teams have allowed six RB1 games this season through nine weeks. The Panthers and Bears match up tonight and are two of those four teams. That puts Chuba Hubbard in the mix for a flex spot this week, though the Bears situation is a little messier. Chicago was close to getting Khalil Herbert back this week but it appears that D’Onta Foreman will get one more start. The Colts (vs. Rhamondre Stevenson) and Giants (vs. Tony Pollard) and also matchups to target.

A few other backs that should see above average production this week include James Cook (vs. DEN), Bijan Robinson (vs. ARI), and Breece Hall (vs. LV.)

Five teams have allowed just one RB1 game this year, although the Chiefs and Eagles are off this week. That leaves the Browns (vs. Gus Edwards/Mitchell), Saints (vs. Alexander Mattison), and Buccaneers (vs. Derrick Henry) as matchups to avoid. The Lions (vs. Austin Ekeler) are also a difficult matchup, though not enough to sit the Chargers star.

Wide Receivers

Week 9 WR1s

As previously discussed, the Texans’ offense went off in Week Nine, and Stroud’s performance boosted his receiving corps as well. The rookie Tank Dell was the beneficiary of that, finishing with a 6/114/2 line and scoring as the overall WR1 for the week. Noah Brown (6/153/1/WR3) and Nico Collins (3/54/1/WR13) were difference-makers as well.

© thomas shea-usa today sports

Season-Long WR1s

Cowboys receiver CeeDee Lamb remains on a tear across the league and facing the Eagles, one of the most forgiving pass defenses in the league, last week didn’t hurt. Lamb caught eleven passes for 191 yards to finish as the WR2 for the week. That helped boost him from WR10 to his current WR6 rank for the year. Keenan Allen was the other riser of the week, while Ja’Marr Chase (WR5 to WR7) and DJ Moore (WR7 to WR9), fell slightly.

Most WR1 Games This Season

Most WR1 Games Allowed

The gap between the Eagles and all other teams continues to widen by the week. Unfortunately, with Philly on bye, we won’t be able to rely on the opposing wide receivers this week. Instead, the Buccaneers (vs DeAndre Hopkins) and Titans (vs. Mike Evans/Chris Godwin) face each other in what could turn into a shootout.

Other matchups to take advantage of include the Colts (vs. Demario Douglas), Jaguars (vs. Brandon Aiyuk/Deebo Samuel), and Commanders (vs. DK Metcalf/Tyler Lockett.)

The Bengals, Texans, and Raiders have each allowed just one WR1 game on the season. Cincinnati and Houston face each other in what could be a letdown for Chase, Tee Higgins, Dell, and Collins. Especially following last week’s fireworks. The Raiders will have the challenge of shutting down Garrett Wilson, but his own quarterback often makes that task a little easier.

Other matchups to shy away from include the Browns (vs. Zay Flowers), Cowboys (vs. Wan’Dale Robinson), Panthers (vs. DJ Moore), and Packers (vs. Diontae Johnson/George Pickens.)

Tight Ends

Week 9 TE1s

Dalton Schultz was yet another key piece of the Texans’ offensive barrage in Week Nine as he posted his best game in a Houston uniform. Cole Kmet and Cade Otton each came through with a pair of touchdown receptions and Jonnu Smith continues to frustratingly outperform his teammate Kyle Pitts.

Season-Long TE1s

Kmet (TE7 to TE5) and Smith (TE12 to TE10) were risers this week on the back of their solid performances, while Schultz moved into the TE1 group. Another Texas tight end, Jake Ferguson, is also now a TE1 following his big game. They replace Pitts and Logan Thomas, who move off the TE1 list.

Most TE1 Games This Season

Most TE1 Games Allowed

We have several options when looking for quality tight end matchups this week. The Falcons (vs. Trey McBride), Bears (vs. Tommy Tremble/Hayden Hurst), Bengals (vs. Schultz), and Commanders (vs. Noah Fant/Will Dissly) have each allowed six TE1 games this season, tied for the most in the league. The Texans (vs. Irv Smith), Broncos (vs. Dalton Kincaid), and Chargers (vs. Sam LaPorta) are each allowing at least 15 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends, making them defenses to target also.

The Bills (vs. Adam Trautman) have allowed no TE1 games this year and that streak likely last another week, at least. The Steelers (vs. Luke Musgrave), Titans (vs. Otton), Ravens (vs David Njoku), and Browns (vs. Mark Andrews) are each giving up less than nine fantasy points per contest to tight end foes.

Finally, here is the chart summarizing how teams have fared against each position. I’ve also included the schedule for this week for reference.

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.

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