Dynasty Statistical Edges: Week Eight

If you follow me on Twitter, you’ve probably noticed a series of tweets I share on a weekly basis regarding player and team defensive performances, all from a fantasy lens. I’m going to be sharing some of that same information with you here.

I use this each week as I am making my own lineup and waiver wire decisions and thought you might find this valuable as well.

Note: The scoring system used for this data is always PPR with four points for passing touchdowns.

Quarterbacks

Week 7 QB1s

Lamar Jackson and the Ravens offense put on a clinic against one of the league’s top teams, waxing the Lions as Jackson threw for the second-highest yardage total of his career (357) along with four total touchdowns. Jackson is back to playing at an MVP level, assuming his teammates are able to hang onto his passes. Gardner Minshew was the real surprise of the week, lighting up one of the league’s top offenses. Minshew passed for over 300 yards, threw two touchdowns, and rushed for two more. He’s only the 23rd quarterback in NFL history to post that stat line in a game. Finally, the name Taysom Hill sticks out like a sore thumb. While the Saints use Hill all over the field, he most certainly is not a quarterback. Except he is because that’s the designation he has from his team.

Season-Long QB1s

Seven weeks into the season, the season-long group of QB1s are starting to solidify. Jackson was a riser while his Week Seven foe, Jared Goff, fell from QB4 to QB8 after his poor performance. Sam Howell and Trevor Lawrence joined the QB1 ranks once again after Week Seven, replacing Justin Fields and CJ Stroud.

Most QB1 Games This Season

Most QB1 Games Allowed

The Commanders have allowed a league-high six QB1 games and that number will likely increase this week as they face the Eagles and Jalen Hurts. Washington is also one of two teams allowing more than 25 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. The other is the Chargers with a league-worst 29.4 fantasy points per game allowed. The Chargers and Bears square off in Week Eight, placing undrafted rookie Tyson Bagent in the streaming category. He’s a worthy QB2 in superflex leagues if you’re in a pinch. Other defenses to target for opposing quarterbacks include the Jaguars (vs. Kenny Pickett), Broncos (vs. Patrick Mahomes), Cardinals (vs. Jackson), and Bears (vs. Justin Herbert.)

The Ravens are the only team in the league that has yet to allow a QB1 game. This week, Baltimore faces Josh Dobbs and the Cardinals. It is worth noting that Kyler Murray was able to practice in full on Wednesday. As anxious as the Cardinals (and dynasty managers) are to see Murray back on the field, throwing him out to the Ravens defense would be a tough choice. Baltimore is the only team in the league allowing less than 16 points per game to the quarterback position and they’re well under that number, at just 13.6 fantasy points.

Other defenses to shy away from include the Bills (vs. Baker Mayfield), Packers (vs. Kirk Cousins), Chiefs (vs. Russell Wilson), and Patriots (vs. Tua Tagovailoa.)

Running Backs

Week 7 RB1s

Where did that come from? Veteran journeyman D’Onta Foreman had fallen so far that he was a healthy scratch for multiple weeks earlier this season. With injuries hitting the Bears backfield, Foreman drew the start and responded with 120 total yards and three scores. Now, with rookie Roschon Johnson expected back soon, Foreman may have earned himself a role moving forward. Alvin Kamara continues to be red hot with four straight RB1 games to start the season. That matches his total from all of last season. Jahmyr Gibbs stepped up with David Montgomery out of the lineup. Gibbs scored his first career touchdown and notched his first-ever RB1 performance, although much of it came in garbage time.

matthew hinton-usa today sports

Season-Long RB1s

Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco has reeled off five straight games as the RB17 or better after a slow start to his season and for the first time this year, he finds himself among the top twelve fantasy scorers at his position. Pacheco’s value has not seen a major increase, making him one of my favorite trade targets on contending teams. Bye week backs Tony Pollard and Derrick Henry fell from the RB1 list, replaced by Pacheco and Brian Robinson.

Most RB1 Games This Season

Most RB1 Games Allowed

We find a foursome of teams at the top, each having allowed five RB1 games on the year. Each of these four team are also among the seven squads giving up more than 25 fantasy points to opposing backfields. These each make for reasonable targets this week. They include: Broncos (vs. Pacheco), Panthers (vs. Dameon Pierce), Packers (vs. Alexander Mattison), Cardinals (vs. Gus Edwards), Colts (vs. Alvin Kamara), and Bears (vs. Austin Ekeler.)

The Chiefs are the only team in the league that has yet to surrender an RB1 performance and one of six teams allowing less than 17 fantasy points per game to opponent’s backfields. The matchups to avoid this week are the Vikings (vs. Aaron Jones), Chiefs (vs. Javonte Williams), Lions (vs. Josh Jacobs), Saints (vs. Jonathan Taylor/Zack Moss), Falcons (vs. Henry), and Eagles (vs. Brian Robinson.) Philadelphia has only allowed a total of 103.4 fantasy points through seven games. That’s about the same that the Denver Broncos allowed in Week Three (103.1 vs. Miami.)

Wide Receivers

Week 7 WR1s

We knew the loss of superstar Justin Jefferson would open up a huge opportunity for rookie Jordan Addison and he did not disappoint on Monday Night Football. Addison went wild with a 7/123/2 line, including a touchdown he swiped away from a defender. Two other rookies cracked the top five in Week Seven as Josh Downs put together the best game of his short career and Puka Nacua reminded us that he’s no fluke, going 8 for 154. Many have pointed out following Sunday’s games that Nacua’s target rate has actually increased since the return of Cooper Kupp. While this may not maintain, it’s at least a very good sign that the rookie is not going anywhere.

Season-Long WR1s

AJ Brown now has at least 125 receiving yards in five straight games. It’s almost as if he’s doing this just to show up those who questioned who the Eagles’ true WR1 really is…it’s AJB. Brown jumped up four spots this week, now sitting in the same spot he holds in most dynasty rankings, WR3. Nacua and DJ Moore each moved up a couple of spots while the fallers were mostly inactive, including Adam Thiele (WR3 to WR7), Ja’Marr Chase (WR5 to WR8), Justin Jefferson (WR9 to WR11 and Nico Collins (WR11 out of the WR1 group.) The red-hot Jakobi Meyers moved into the top twelve, giving us a pair of Raiders as WR1s.

stephen r. sylvanie-usa today sports

Most WR1 Games This Season

Most WR1 Games Allowed

The Eagles continue to struggle shutting down opposing receivers, having given up a league-most seven WR1 games. This week, that could give Commanders’ top option Terry McLaurin hope for a quality performance. There are a pair of teams allowing more fantasy points per game than Philly though, the Chargers (vs. Moore) and Seahawks (vs. Amari Cooper.) Other teams to target include the Jaguars (vs. Diontae Johnson/George Pickens), Colts (vs. Chris Olave), Steelers (vs. Christian Kirk/Calvin Ridley), and Titans (vs. Drake London.)

The Bengals are the only team yet to surrender a WR1 game though they are surprisingly middle of the pack, allowing 33 fantasy points per game to opposing receivers. No one is benching Brandon Aiyuk anyway, but combining these data points shows us the Bengals are not necessarily a team to avoid. There are four teams giving up 27 fantasy points or less and those are teams to try to avoid. They include the Rams (vs. CeeDee Lamb), Cowboys (vs. Kupp/Nacua), Jets (vs. WanDale Robinson), and Browns (vs. DK Metcalf/Tyler Lockett.)

Tight Ends

Week 7 TE1s

It has become a weekly tradition to complain about the state of the tight end position, including how low-scoring and random it seems to be. That means when the position delivers and lives up to expectations, we should celebrate. This week, the TE1 scorers were largely dominated by players also ranked as dynasty TE1s as well. As always, Travis Kelce is the headliner of that group. The Chiefs tight end tied a career-high with 12 receptions and his 179 yards were the second-highest of his career. Rookie Dalton Kincaid enjoyed the best game of his career and following the unfortunate injury to Dawson Know, we can expect more TE1 performances from the highly-ranked rookie.

Season-Long TE1s

The season-long TE1 ranks were largely unchanged this week. Darren Waller jumped from TE11 to TE5 following his solid Week Seven performance while Cole Kmet and Dalton Schultz slid slightly down the ranks.

Most TE1 Games This Season

Most TE1 Games Allowed

Three teams lead the league with five TE1 games allowed so far this season. We should definitely be attacking those defenses, when possible. This week, that means considering Chig Okonkwo (vs. ATL), Taysom Hill/Foster Moreau (vs. IND), and Dallas Goedert (vs. WAS.)

Other possible options this week, based on fantasy points allowed, include Hayden Hurst (vs. HOU), Waller (vs. NYJ), Michael Mayer (vs. DET), and Kelce (vs. DEN.) Each of these four teams are allowing over 15 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends.

Meanwhile, the Bills have yet to give up a single TE1 game and should keep that streak going as they face Cade Otton this week. Other matchups to avoid include the Browns (vs. Noah Fant/Will Dissly), Ravens (vs. Trey McBride), and Seattle (vs. David Njoku.)

Finally, here is the chart summarizing how teams have fared against each position. I’ve also included the schedule for this week for reference.

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.

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