Fantasy Football Off-Season Movement: Quarterback Landscape
Each offseason, I track team needs and the players most likely to fill those needs in a chart like this. In the coming weeks and months, NFL teams will have multiple opportunities to fill those holes, namely the March free agency period and April’s NFL Draft.
In this series, I’ll go position-by-position looking at teams in need, along with the veterans and rookies who could eventually fill the blanks on the chart below. Let’s start with the quarterbacks.
Last offseason, we saw star quarterbacks Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson traded from their long-time teams. Veterans Matt Ryan and Carson Wentz were also traded, though neither move worked well for their new teams. With so many teams in need of quarterback help, we are sure to see a wild quarterback carousel in the coming weeks and months.
TEAM NEEDS
Carolina Panthers
The Panthers tried to fill their 2022 quarterback need with former top draft picks Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold and both ultimately proved they could not be trusted as the team’s long-term starter. While the hire of Frank Reich fills their head coaching vacancy, this team currently lacks a real identity. Their owner has always been aggressive and that should still be true this off-season as they search for both a new coaching staff and a starting quarterback.
Houston Texans
After a surprising rookie season in 2021, the Texans stuck with Davis Mills as their starting quarterback this year. That plan flopped this season as Mills was eventually benched after struggling throughout the season. With the second overall pick in the NFL Draft, Houston will be in a good position to find their long-term starter in one of the top prospects. They have been most commonly linked with Alabama’s Bryce Young.
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts’ plan of recycling veteran quarterbacks finally flopped this season. The team traded for veteran Matt Ryan last off-season and there were many reasons to expect a bounce-back season from the former Falcons. That was not the case at all as Ryan looked like one of the worst passers in the league and was benched multiple times, despite the Colts having no real prospects at the position. With a top-five draft pick, the Colts are expected to target one of the incoming rookies to be their starter.
Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders finally decided “just okay” was not good enough. After investing in star wide receiver Davante Adams last season, Derek Carr still failed to break through or show any real upside on the field. That eventually led the team to bench their longtime starter and make it clear he would not be part of their team moving forward. With the seventh pick in the NFL Draft, the Raiders may be able to snag one of the top incoming rookies.
New Orleans Saints
The Saints are a difficult team to project. After starter Jameis Winston suffered an injury, New Orleans turned to veteran backup Andy Dalton, who did Andy Dalton-like things for the remainder of the season. Despite turnovers and multiple losses, the team never went back to Winston. Still under contract for another season, the team could certainly stick with Winston, but they seemingly don’t want to do that and the veteran is certainly not a long-term starter.
New York Jets
The Jets have drafted a quarterback in the first three rounds in four times over the past decade, all failing to establish themselves as the team’s long-term starter. Of course, that includes recent second-overall pick Zach Wilson. The rest of the roster is seemingly ready to contend for a playoff spot if they can solve this last huge piece of the puzzle.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers went all in a few years ago, signing Tom Brady for what was expected to be the final stretch of his Hall of Fame career. Of course, that paid off with a Super Bowl title, but things have been steadily declining since then. It is unclear if Brady will continue to play, but he made it pretty clear that he would not be back in Tampa Bay.
New York Giants
While the Giants have a need at the quarterback position, they do at least have a path to a solid starter. Daniel Jones enjoyed a career year in his first season under head coach Brian Daboll and is now set to enter free agency. Of course, the Giants also hold the option of placing the Franchise Tag on Jones to keep him in town for at least one more season.
Baltimore Ravens
Like the Giants, the Ravens control their top option here as they could simply Franchise Tag superstar Lamar Jackson, ensuring he remains the team’s starter for the 2023 season. The assumption is the team would like to sign Jackson to a long-term deal but their reported offers don’t come close to Jackson’s demands. There’s a chance these negotiations get ugly and Jackson is not back in Baltimore. If that’s the case, the Ravens are starting from scratch. Talented backup Tyler Huntley is also a free agent this off-season.
Washington Commanders
The Commanders tried three different starters this season with varying degrees of success. Veteran Carson Wentz, whom the team traded for last off-season, was a total bust and is unlikely to be back with the team. Taylor Heinicke was just fine but lacked upside. Finally, the team turned to rookie Sam Howell in the finale and he played well in a surprise win over the Giants. The team announced they will enter the offseason program with Howell as their starter but that is mostly meaningless.
Tennessee Titans
The Titans have veteran Ryan Tannehill under contract for another but this is also a team that seems ready to make a change. There’s also an out in Tannehill’s contract that would save the team around $18 million. Tennessee did add athletic quarterback Malik Willis in last year’s NFL Draft but after his play this season, they can’t feel confident turning the job over to him.
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks made the gutsy move last offseason to trade established veteran Russell Wilson for multiple draft picks and depth players. They then turned the team over to veteran Geno Smith. That worked well as Smith easily outplayed Wilson and the team made the playoffs while Wilson’s Broncos were among the league’s biggest disappointments. Now, Smith enters free agency with the hope of his first big payday as a pro. Both sides are seemingly interested in Smith staying with the team.
Atlanta Falcons
After trading Ryan last offseason, the Falcons tried multiple ways to fill their hole at quarterback, signing veteran Marcus Mariota and drafting rookie Desmond Ridder. The team stuck with Mariota for most of the season and, overall, played much better than anyone expected. That said, Mariota was eventually benched as he dealt with a reported “chronic knee injury.” Sure…
FREE AGENTS
Lamar Jackson
If he somehow escapes Baltimore and their Franchise Tag, Jackson will obviously be the cream of this free agent crop. Understandably, Jackson is looking for a contract that matches Deshaun Watson’s record-breaker from last offseason. Also, understandably, the Ravens are considering Jackson’s ten missed games over the past two regular seasons, not to mention a lack of recent playoff success. NFC South foes Atlanta and Carolina have both been mentioned as rumored landing spots for Jackson should he find a new team this offseason.
Tom Brady
We’re not sure what Brady will do quite yet and as he so eloquently put it recently, neither is he. As previously mentioned, it was fairly obvious based on post-game comments that Brady’s time in Tampa Bay is over. The Raiders, with their stockpile of playmakers, is the team most often mentioned as a landing spot for the future Hall of Famer. Obviously, Brady simply retiring, for real this time, is also a possibility.
Geno Smith
What a season for Smith, the veteran who, in how words, had been written off. This year we learned Smith didn’t write back and that resulted in a top-five fantasy finish for the former Jets starter. Now, Smith enters free agency with hopes of a monster payday. While “old” by dynasty standards, at 32 years old and with less than 50 games started in his career, Smith likely has plenty left in the tank. The Seahawks presumably want to retain him but with so many teams in need of a quarterback, his list of suitors could be a long one. It would make the most sense for Smith to land with a team ready to contend for a playoff spot, which would obviously include sticking with Seattle.
Daniel Jones
Sometimes, a coach makes all the difference. We hear that all of the time with youth sports leagues but it’s true with professionals too. Brian Daboll and the Giants are an excellent reminder of that this season, turning a long-time loser into a playoff team with virtually the same roster from last season. That turnaround was most significant with the quarterback Jones, who enjoyed a career year, including new high marks with 3,205 passing yards, 708 rushing yards, only five interceptions, and 289 fantasy points, good for the QB9 finish on the year. Jones now is set to enter free agency. This will be one of the most interesting stories to follow this off-season.
Jimmy Garoppolo
After the early-season injury to Trey Lance, Garoppolo took over as the 49ers’ starter and helped lead the team into playoff contention. A Week Thirteen injury ended Garoppolo’s season and brought us phenom Brock Purdy. Garoppolo was playing well enough to spark the idea that the team would retain him as their 2023 starter but Purdy’s success has squashed that. Garoppolo will hit the free agent market and some have even connected the dots back to New England to replace the struggling Mac Jones.
Other Free Agents to Follow: Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Jacoby Brissett, Teddy Bridgewater, Gardner Minshew, Andy Dalton, Taylor Heinicke, Mike White, Tyler Huntley
CAP CASUALTIES & TRADE RUMORS
Derek Carr
After nine seasons with the Raiders, Carr will be playing for a new team in 2023. While he’s not a free agent, both the team and the veteran quarterback have made it clear the relationship has run its course. Carr’s lack of upside played a part in the decision as he was never able to break through with a true difference-making performance on a consistent basis. Carr has never finished a season as a QB1 but is sure to find a new home this off-season.
Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers and the Packers endured one of the worst seasons of his tenure in 2022, ending with a home loss to the Lions that could’ve put the Pack in the playoffs. A separation between Rodgers and the Packers has been steadily building since the team used their first-round pick on Jordan Love in 2020. Recent rumors suggest the team will look to trade Rodgers and his massive contract but will focus those efforts on AFC teams, namely the Jets.
Ryan Tannehill
It was a difficult season for Tannehill, which culminated with a season-ending injury. With a hefty contract and disappointing play, the Titans are likely looking to move on from Tannehill. While he struggled this year, the veteran is still likely to find a starting gig given the widespread need for quarterback help this offseason.
Matt Ryan
While he is signed for one more year, it is a foregone conclusion that Ryan’s time in Indianapolis is likely done, despite a massive cap hit. After his poor play this season, it is hard to envision any team giving Ryan a new deal and a significant role, even as a bridge quarterback. Ryan is a candidate to retire.
Marcus Mariota
Mariota couldn’t get the job done in Atlanta, who turned to him following the trade of Ryan last offseason. Mariota was finally replaced by the rookie Desmond Ridder late in the season and reportedly did not handle the decision well. He’s likely to be gone from Atlanta with a reasonable cap hit, though I don’t expect him to earn a starting job in 2023. He is best as a reliable backup, as he was for Las Vegas prior to the 2022 season.
Jameis Winston
While Winston is still under contract for the 2023 season, the Saints’ decisions this past season suggest they are ready to move on from the veteran. Still just 29 years old, Winston would likely have several teams interested if he hits the open market.
ROOKIES
Bryce Young
After a successful college career at Alabama, Young enters the league, likely to be a top-five pick in the NFL Draft. Young’s frame and size has created some questions but his passing skills and overall profile are difficult to doubt. He could eventually partner with one of the veteran quarterbacks mentioned above for some quarterback needy team.
CJ Stroud
Although Stroud could never win the big game against Michigan, he could be the big winner on draft day. Stroud has the size that Young lacks and showed late in the season that he can run the ball, too. Stroud is my personal favorite to be the top overall pick in the NFL Draft, assuming a team trades up to the top spot.
Will Levis
There are many doubters out there when it comes to Kentucky’s Levis, and that is understandable. After a banner year in 2021, Levis took a step back this season. Hampered by injuries and a poor offensive line, Levis struggled, especially with interceptions. Levis does have a cannon for an arm and those old-school quarterback traits could result in him being drafted much higher than expected.
Anthony Richardson
Likely to be the most debated player in the draft, Richardson’s range of outcomes is miles wide. A huge arm and speed to match have some dynasty managers valuing Richardson as the QB1 but his accuracy is likely the worst in the class. If he can reach that upside, he’s a dynasty QB1, but we’ve seen from other project-type quarterbacks in recent years that the path to elite playmaker is a rocky one.
- Monday Mocks: 1QB Rookie ADP - February 17, 2025
- Off-Season Movement: 2025 Wide Receiver Landscape, Part One - February 13, 2025
- Monday Mocks: Win Now Veterans - February 10, 2025
Each offseason, I track team needs and the players most likely to fill those needs in a chart like this. In the coming weeks and months, NFL teams will have multiple opportunities to fill those holes, namely the March free agency period and April’s NFL Draft.
In this series, I’ll go position-by-position looking at teams in need, along with the veterans and rookies who could eventually fill the blanks on the chart below. Let’s start with the quarterbacks.
Last offseason, we saw star quarterbacks Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson traded from their long-time teams. Veterans Matt Ryan and Carson Wentz were also traded, though neither move worked well for their new teams. With so many teams in need of quarterback help, we are sure to see a wild quarterback carousel in the coming weeks and months.
TEAM NEEDS
Carolina Panthers
The Panthers tried to fill their 2022 quarterback need with former top draft picks Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold and both ultimately proved they could not be trusted as the team’s long-term starter. While the hire of Frank Reich fills their head coaching vacancy, this team currently lacks a real identity. Their owner has always been aggressive and that should still be true this off-season as they search for both a new coaching staff and a starting quarterback.
Houston Texans
After a surprising rookie season in 2021, the Texans stuck with Davis Mills as their starting quarterback this year. That plan flopped this season as Mills was eventually benched after struggling throughout the season. With the second overall pick in the NFL Draft, Houston will be in a good position to find their long-term starter in one of the top prospects. They have been most commonly linked with Alabama’s Bryce Young.
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts’ plan of recycling veteran quarterbacks finally flopped this season. The team traded for veteran Matt Ryan last off-season and there were many reasons to expect a bounce-back season from the former Falcons. That was not the case at all as Ryan looked like one of the worst passers in the league and was benched multiple times, despite the Colts having no real prospects at the position. With a top-five draft pick, the Colts are expected to target one of the incoming rookies to be their starter.
Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders finally decided “just okay” was not good enough. After investing in star wide receiver Davante Adams last season, Derek Carr still failed to break through or show any real upside on the field. That eventually led the team to bench their longtime starter and make it clear he would not be part of their team moving forward. With the seventh pick in the NFL Draft, the Raiders may be able to snag one of the top incoming rookies.
New Orleans Saints
The Saints are a difficult team to project. After starter Jameis Winston suffered an injury, New Orleans turned to veteran backup Andy Dalton, who did Andy Dalton-like things for the remainder of the season. Despite turnovers and multiple losses, the team never went back to Winston. Still under contract for another season, the team could certainly stick with Winston, but they seemingly don’t want to do that and the veteran is certainly not a long-term starter.
New York Jets
The Jets have drafted a quarterback in the first three rounds in four times over the past decade, all failing to establish themselves as the team’s long-term starter. Of course, that includes recent second-overall pick Zach Wilson. The rest of the roster is seemingly ready to contend for a playoff spot if they can solve this last huge piece of the puzzle.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers went all in a few years ago, signing Tom Brady for what was expected to be the final stretch of his Hall of Fame career. Of course, that paid off with a Super Bowl title, but things have been steadily declining since then. It is unclear if Brady will continue to play, but he made it pretty clear that he would not be back in Tampa Bay.
New York Giants
While the Giants have a need at the quarterback position, they do at least have a path to a solid starter. Daniel Jones enjoyed a career year in his first season under head coach Brian Daboll and is now set to enter free agency. Of course, the Giants also hold the option of placing the Franchise Tag on Jones to keep him in town for at least one more season.
Baltimore Ravens
Like the Giants, the Ravens control their top option here as they could simply Franchise Tag superstar Lamar Jackson, ensuring he remains the team’s starter for the 2023 season. The assumption is the team would like to sign Jackson to a long-term deal but their reported offers don’t come close to Jackson’s demands. There’s a chance these negotiations get ugly and Jackson is not back in Baltimore. If that’s the case, the Ravens are starting from scratch. Talented backup Tyler Huntley is also a free agent this off-season.
Washington Commanders
The Commanders tried three different starters this season with varying degrees of success. Veteran Carson Wentz, whom the team traded for last off-season, was a total bust and is unlikely to be back with the team. Taylor Heinicke was just fine but lacked upside. Finally, the team turned to rookie Sam Howell in the finale and he played well in a surprise win over the Giants. The team announced they will enter the offseason program with Howell as their starter but that is mostly meaningless.
Tennessee Titans
The Titans have veteran Ryan Tannehill under contract for another but this is also a team that seems ready to make a change. There’s also an out in Tannehill’s contract that would save the team around $18 million. Tennessee did add athletic quarterback Malik Willis in last year’s NFL Draft but after his play this season, they can’t feel confident turning the job over to him.
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks made the gutsy move last offseason to trade established veteran Russell Wilson for multiple draft picks and depth players. They then turned the team over to veteran Geno Smith. That worked well as Smith easily outplayed Wilson and the team made the playoffs while Wilson’s Broncos were among the league’s biggest disappointments. Now, Smith enters free agency with the hope of his first big payday as a pro. Both sides are seemingly interested in Smith staying with the team.
Atlanta Falcons
After trading Ryan last offseason, the Falcons tried multiple ways to fill their hole at quarterback, signing veteran Marcus Mariota and drafting rookie Desmond Ridder. The team stuck with Mariota for most of the season and, overall, played much better than anyone expected. That said, Mariota was eventually benched as he dealt with a reported “chronic knee injury.” Sure…
FREE AGENTS
Lamar Jackson
If he somehow escapes Baltimore and their Franchise Tag, Jackson will obviously be the cream of this free agent crop. Understandably, Jackson is looking for a contract that matches Deshaun Watson’s record-breaker from last offseason. Also, understandably, the Ravens are considering Jackson’s ten missed games over the past two regular seasons, not to mention a lack of recent playoff success. NFC South foes Atlanta and Carolina have both been mentioned as rumored landing spots for Jackson should he find a new team this offseason.
Tom Brady
We’re not sure what Brady will do quite yet and as he so eloquently put it recently, neither is he. As previously mentioned, it was fairly obvious based on post-game comments that Brady’s time in Tampa Bay is over. The Raiders, with their stockpile of playmakers, is the team most often mentioned as a landing spot for the future Hall of Famer. Obviously, Brady simply retiring, for real this time, is also a possibility.
Geno Smith
What a season for Smith, the veteran who, in how words, had been written off. This year we learned Smith didn’t write back and that resulted in a top-five fantasy finish for the former Jets starter. Now, Smith enters free agency with hopes of a monster payday. While “old” by dynasty standards, at 32 years old and with less than 50 games started in his career, Smith likely has plenty left in the tank. The Seahawks presumably want to retain him but with so many teams in need of a quarterback, his list of suitors could be a long one. It would make the most sense for Smith to land with a team ready to contend for a playoff spot, which would obviously include sticking with Seattle.
Daniel Jones
Sometimes, a coach makes all the difference. We hear that all of the time with youth sports leagues but it’s true with professionals too. Brian Daboll and the Giants are an excellent reminder of that this season, turning a long-time loser into a playoff team with virtually the same roster from last season. That turnaround was most significant with the quarterback Jones, who enjoyed a career year, including new high marks with 3,205 passing yards, 708 rushing yards, only five interceptions, and 289 fantasy points, good for the QB9 finish on the year. Jones now is set to enter free agency. This will be one of the most interesting stories to follow this off-season.
Jimmy Garoppolo
After the early-season injury to Trey Lance, Garoppolo took over as the 49ers’ starter and helped lead the team into playoff contention. A Week Thirteen injury ended Garoppolo’s season and brought us phenom Brock Purdy. Garoppolo was playing well enough to spark the idea that the team would retain him as their 2023 starter but Purdy’s success has squashed that. Garoppolo will hit the free agent market and some have even connected the dots back to New England to replace the struggling Mac Jones.
Other Free Agents to Follow: Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Jacoby Brissett, Teddy Bridgewater, Gardner Minshew, Andy Dalton, Taylor Heinicke, Mike White, Tyler Huntley
CAP CASUALTIES & TRADE RUMORS
Derek Carr
After nine seasons with the Raiders, Carr will be playing for a new team in 2023. While he’s not a free agent, both the team and the veteran quarterback have made it clear the relationship has run its course. Carr’s lack of upside played a part in the decision as he was never able to break through with a true difference-making performance on a consistent basis. Carr has never finished a season as a QB1 but is sure to find a new home this off-season.
Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers and the Packers endured one of the worst seasons of his tenure in 2022, ending with a home loss to the Lions that could’ve put the Pack in the playoffs. A separation between Rodgers and the Packers has been steadily building since the team used their first-round pick on Jordan Love in 2020. Recent rumors suggest the team will look to trade Rodgers and his massive contract but will focus those efforts on AFC teams, namely the Jets.
Ryan Tannehill
It was a difficult season for Tannehill, which culminated with a season-ending injury. With a hefty contract and disappointing play, the Titans are likely looking to move on from Tannehill. While he struggled this year, the veteran is still likely to find a starting gig given the widespread need for quarterback help this offseason.
Matt Ryan
While he is signed for one more year, it is a foregone conclusion that Ryan’s time in Indianapolis is likely done, despite a massive cap hit. After his poor play this season, it is hard to envision any team giving Ryan a new deal and a significant role, even as a bridge quarterback. Ryan is a candidate to retire.
Marcus Mariota
Mariota couldn’t get the job done in Atlanta, who turned to him following the trade of Ryan last offseason. Mariota was finally replaced by the rookie Desmond Ridder late in the season and reportedly did not handle the decision well. He’s likely to be gone from Atlanta with a reasonable cap hit, though I don’t expect him to earn a starting job in 2023. He is best as a reliable backup, as he was for Las Vegas prior to the 2022 season.
Jameis Winston
While Winston is still under contract for the 2023 season, the Saints’ decisions this past season suggest they are ready to move on from the veteran. Still just 29 years old, Winston would likely have several teams interested if he hits the open market.
ROOKIES
Bryce Young
After a successful college career at Alabama, Young enters the league, likely to be a top-five pick in the NFL Draft. Young’s frame and size has created some questions but his passing skills and overall profile are difficult to doubt. He could eventually partner with one of the veteran quarterbacks mentioned above for some quarterback needy team.
CJ Stroud
Although Stroud could never win the big game against Michigan, he could be the big winner on draft day. Stroud has the size that Young lacks and showed late in the season that he can run the ball, too. Stroud is my personal favorite to be the top overall pick in the NFL Draft, assuming a team trades up to the top spot.
Will Levis
There are many doubters out there when it comes to Kentucky’s Levis, and that is understandable. After a banner year in 2021, Levis took a step back this season. Hampered by injuries and a poor offensive line, Levis struggled, especially with interceptions. Levis does have a cannon for an arm and those old-school quarterback traits could result in him being drafted much higher than expected.
Anthony Richardson
Likely to be the most debated player in the draft, Richardson’s range of outcomes is miles wide. A huge arm and speed to match have some dynasty managers valuing Richardson as the QB1 but his accuracy is likely the worst in the class. If he can reach that upside, he’s a dynasty QB1, but we’ve seen from other project-type quarterbacks in recent years that the path to elite playmaker is a rocky one.
- Monday Mocks: 1QB Rookie ADP - February 17, 2025
- Off-Season Movement: 2025 Wide Receiver Landscape, Part One - February 13, 2025
- Monday Mocks: Win Now Veterans - February 10, 2025
