2023 Off-Season Mock Drafts: Dynasty Startup with Rookies
After focusing on rookies, it seems like a great time to step back from them for a moment and focus on veterans. Startup draft season is right around the corner, so I wanted to see what a startup would look like with only the Super Bowl remaining to close out the 2022 NFL season.
I’m not going into this mock with any specific strategy, but if that is important to you, DLF’s Ryan McDowell recently covered potential draft strategies for your 2023 startup drafts. I’m primarily conducting this mock draft to help you get familiar with the most recent trends in ADP and as a way to help make you aware of DLF’s mock draft simulator tool. This mock should also give you an idea of where the incoming rookie class falls when they’re mixed in with veterans.
I’ve set up the draft as a superflex, 12-team, 12-round draft with PPR scoring. To add a little wrinkle, I did include the 2023 rookies. I don’t usually omit them, so it’ll be interesting to see where the projected top picks in this rookie class land in a startup. I was randomly assigned the first overall pick. Although I usually hate picking early, it should give me a different look than I typically get, so I should build a roster that looks different from most teams I’ve put together in the past. So let’s get into it!
Rounds 1-3
For a moment, I was planning on taking Ja’Marr Chase. However, given that this is, in fact, superflex, I knew I had to go with a quarterback seeing how I wasn’t going to pick again until the two-three turn. I entertained 26-year-old Josh Allen for a second, but I don’t like the way the Bills are trending. Another 26-year-old, Joe Burrow, was enticing here too, and Justin Herbert is only 24, and there’s nothing wrong with skewing younger in a startup draft. In the end, Patrick Mahomes might be 27, but he’s clearly the overall QB1 and should continue to be for a while. There was no need for me to overthink so much this early.
At the two-three turn, I was hoping to get a WR-RB combo. I was surprised to see incoming rookie Bijan Robinson as the first running back off the board at 1.09, but good for me, as that bumps everyone down a spot for me. At 2.12, I selected the Giants’ Saquon Barkley, I was concerned about him heading into the 2022 season, but he put my worry to rest after finishing as RB5 last year. Austin Ekeler and Nick Chubb were both on my radar here, but they’re both 27, while Barkley is only 25, so I’ll happily buy the two years and hope Barkley returns to the Giants under Brian Daboll.
With 3.01, I had locked myself into wide receiver here. However, with the Chase/Justin Jefferson/CeeDee Lamb group gone, I wasn’t sure where I wanted to go. Tee Higgins and Tyreek Hill were both of interest to me here, but Higgins is his own team’s No 2, and as much as I love Hill, he is 28 and finds himself on a team with questions at quarterback. That left me with DK Metcalf. I have no shares of Metcalf anywhere, and since Tyler Lockett isn’t getting any younger, a stud 25-year-old with a new contract seemed like a safe bet. Another player I considered was the Jets’ Garrett Wilson. He is only 22 and looked great with a putrid mass of trash at quarterback. In hindsight, maybe I should’ve taken him over Metcalf.
Overall, I’m happy with my first three picks. I don’t feel like I missed out on anyone except maybe Wilson. I also (almost) never pick rookies in startups- especially early. Rookie hit rates are notoriously low, so there is no way I’m ever passing on a known, established entity for a dart throw on a rookie.
Rookies in Rounds 1-3
- 1.09 – Bijan Robinson, RB
- 2.06 – Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR
- 3.05 – Jahmyr Gibbs, RB
- 3.10 – Jordan Addison, WR
- 3.11 – Bryce Young, QB
Nothing really shocking or ground-breaking here, although I think Robinson being the RB1 before he plays a single snap in the NFL is a little wild. It looks like time to sell my 1.01s if people are getting this crazy already. It’s the same with Gibbs for me too. Several veterans are going after him that I would be much more comfortable with at this point. Bryce Young being selected as QB12 seems to be about right. In the last few years, early-drafted quarterback prospects have been falling in the fringe QB1 range, so that was near where I thought he would land.
Rounds 4-6
I can’t tell you how excited I was to get Javonte Williams at 4.12. Williams was drafted 11th overall just a year ago, so to get him 37 spots later this year, I couldn’t be happier. Not comparing the talent per se, but Payton’s previous offense in New Orleans did wonders for Alvin Kamara; I’d love to see what Williams can do in that system. I know the Broncos looked dreadful last year, and Williams tore his ACL, but the still 22-year-old Williams has the same upside he did only a season ago.
Coming back on the turn, in round five, I went with the Saints’ Chris Olave. Another 22-year-old, I’m happy with the average age of my team so far. He flashed as a rookie, and like all the Ohio State receivers we’ve seen recently, he should continue to develop in the NFL. I looked at a few other options at this 4-5 turn. Kirk Cousins was definitely on my radar as my QB2. I didn’t love any of the Dalvin Cook, Derrick Henry, or Joe Mixon “older” running back group while Williams was still there too. Trylon Burks and DJ Moore were considerations for me, but their offenses were more concerning to me than Olave’s.
Wrapping up this trio of picks, I returned to the running back well, drafting my third back in six picks, selecting the Ravens’ JK Dobbins. Dobbins’ injury setback during the season was a colossal red flag for me in-season, but when he was able to return and be effective, I felt better about it and think he’ll be fine going forward. Although he has been injured, the 24-year-old Dobbins has been lightly used, with only 251 touches over his three-year career. He’s one of my early 2023 breakout candidates, and grabbing him to close out the sixth felt great. It hurt my soul to pass on George Pickens and Dameon Pierce, who I love.
Rookies in Rounds 4-6
- 4.06 – C.J. Stroud, QB
- 5.05 – Quentin Johnston, WR
- 6.03 – Will Levis, QB
The biggest takeaway was that only three rookies were drafted in these three rounds. I’m not willing to take the risk in the first three rounds and would feel a little better here, but the mock draft simulator sees things differently. Stroud is in the same boat as Young above, as QB13 puts him in the fringe QB1 range, so that makes sense. Johnston seems to have a bunch of hype behind him right now, and I suspect as we get closer to rookie drafts, he’s going to be one of the fastest climbers. Levis was the 16th quarterback chosen, but if he gets first-round draft capital, there is no way he will fall that far following the NFL draft.
Rounds 7-9
Looking at the players remaining by position, it became abundantly clear that this was my last chance to secure any remotely respectable QB2. Of the remaining “names,” Russell Wilson was the only person I had any confidence in. Thanks to his monster contract, at least I know he’ll be in Denver for a few seasons. Of course, the addition of Sean Payton doesn’t hurt him either. This was a pick out of necessity, but I don’t hate it. If Denver can turn things around, the Wilson-Williams combo might give me a considerable boost.
At the 8-9 turn, I knew I had to start looking at tight ends. I will almost never draft tight ends before round seven, and often, in deeper leagues, I will draft three upside guys with my final three picks. I still only have two wide receivers, but Mike Williams and Christian Watson were the top remaining options, and I’m not a fan of either. Cam Akers was interesting to me, but I do sure do love me some Tony Pollard. So, Pollard was my pick here, and I came back with Dallas Goedert as my next pick. I can’t believe Goedert was the tenth tight end selected. I think he is closer to the elite-top-three-tight-end-territory than anyone else being drafted after him.
I love what I did with these three selections. Coming out of rounds seven, eight, and nine with three players with the upside to finish top-five at their position a year from now was an amazing feeling.
Rookies in Rounds 7-9
- 7.03 – Michael Mayer, TE
- 7.06 – Josh Downs, WR
- 8.08 – Zach Evans, RB
- 9.03 – Zach Charbonnet, RB
- 9.08 – Cedric Tillman, WR
- 8.11 – Sean Tucker, RB
Six of the 36 picks in the range were rookies as people get more comfortable taking on some risk in this range. There was nothing ground-shaking or life-altering here, but I like to see where the top tight end prospect always lands. Seeing Mayer ahead of TJ Hockenson, Dalton Schultz, Pat Freiermuth, and Goedert is pure insanity. Downs ahead of Pickens and Christian Kirk is also pretty wild, but other than that, nothing stood out as an egregious overreach. And honestly, at this point, who knows? If anyone has a monster performance at the combine, gets rewarded with early draft capital, and finds themselves in an incredible landing spot, maybe these start-up draft spots will be warranted when July rolls around.
Rounds 10-12
To close round 10 with pick 10.12 and open round 11 with 11.01, I looked at the remaining players by position. With only three selections remaining, I still only had two receivers on my roster and knew at least two of my next three picks would have to be receivers. Looking at the positional scarcity across the board, I pulled the trigger and grabbed my QB3 in the Patriots’ Mac Jones. I like Jones, he’d be a fine bye-week fill-in for me, and he’s got some upside with Bill O’Brien coming in as his offensive coordinator. I’ll be trying to acquire Jones on the cheap where I can this off-season.
I followed up the selection of Jones with a wide receiver. I picked the Chiefs’ Kadarius Toney. Toney is an explosive athlete- he just can’t stay healthy. Since coming to KC, Toney topped a 29-percent snap share five times. In those games, he hauled in 16 receptions on 20 targets for 190 yards and two scores. While they’re not overly impressive numbers, keep in mind Toney was a mid-season acquisition. I’m very excited about the upside of the former first-round pick after an entire season with Andy Reid- especially if JuJu Smith-Schuster moves on in free agency.
With my final pick, I went back to the receiver well and got the Patriots’ Jakobi Meyers to stack with Mac Jones. Meyers was WR32 a season ago, finishing ahead of much more prominent names like Mike Williams, Gabe Davis, Hollywood Brown, and Courtland Sutton. Meyers is a solid WR4 in PPR leagues, and although my receivers are weak overall, Meyers gives me a safe plug-and-play option who, at the very least, is never going to put up a 2.5-point game. DJ Chark was the only other name I entertained here, and it’s wild that he went undrafted.
Rookies in Rounds 10-12
- 10.07 – Zay Flowers, WR
- 10.11 – Israel Abanikanda, RB
- 11.05 – Devin Achane, RB
- 11.06 – Anthony Richardson, QB
- 11.08 – Hendon Hooker, QB
- 12.04 – Roschon Johnson, RB
- 12.08 – Tank Bigby, RB
- 12.11 – Parker Washington, WR
Whew, things got out of hand quickly! With fewer veteran “sure things” on the board, it was time to start rolling the dice on the incoming rookie class. I’ve seen Flowers mocked in the first round of the NFL draft. Even if he ends up as an early second, there is no way he falls this far in real dynasty drafts. There is also no way Richardson ends up as an 11th-round superflex pick. He is likely to be an NFL first-rounder, and if that’s the case, he’ll be drafted much earlier, probably in the round three to round six range like the other first-round signal callers.
Big Picture
My wide receiver room stinks, but other than that, I’m happy with my team. Overall, it was a very on-brand draft for me. I tend to kick the can down the road at receiver and go running back heavy while drafting as few tight ends as possible and no rookies. I’ll occasionally zig when my drafts zag, but this is how most of my startup drafts go, so this particular roster construction wasn’t a big shocker to me when everything was said and done.
Picking on the turn isn’t my favorite since I’m committed to making two decisions at once and then waiting as 22 more players are taken off the board. But, aside from going with Metcalf over Wilson, I’m not too bothered by anyone I missed, even during those 22-player runs- which I don’t say often. I’m usually filled with bitter regret about all the players I got sniped on, but I’m happy with this squad.
The Leftovers
Obviously, in a 12-round draft, there will be quite a few good players remaining. In some 20-round (or more) startups, waivers are a barren wasteland before the season even kicks off. Here, however, there is still lots of quality to be had. If you punted quarterback and could hit waivers following the draft, locking up some combination of Matthew Stafford, Kenny Pickett, Daniel Jones, Geno Smith, or Jared Goff, you’d probably feel pretty good about things. Brian Robinson and Jamaal Williams still hanging around was also surprising. Wide receiver was picked clean, though, which seems to be the trend in recent years. The one interesting name to watch is rookie tight end Darnell Washington. Some NFL mocks had him going in the first round. However, given the lack of talent and upside at the position, I can see people overdrafting him if he gets decent draft capital.
It’s A Wrap
It was good to finally complete a start-up as part of this series, as my rookie fever needs a little break. It is always interesting to see where the incoming rookies land among the NFL veterans in this setting, and there were definitely a few surprises. I’m still shocked Robinson is already the RB1, and I thought Young and Stroud would’ve gone a little higher. The DLF mock draft simulator tool gave me some interesting results. In future editions of this series, I’ll have some real-person mocks as well, so it will be interesting to see how different (or similar) the results will be, so keep an eye out for those articles. Thanks for reading, and see you here again next week!
- 2024 Off-Season Mock Drafts: Rookie Fallout From an NFL Mock Draft - April 20, 2024
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Drafts: A View from the 1.07 - April 17, 2024
- 2024 Off-Season Mock Drafts: Recent Rookie Risers and Fallers - April 13, 2024
