Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Answering Your Dynasty Questions

Welcome back to the DLF Mailbag, the preeminent mailbag in all the dynasty fantasy football land.

“Don’t talk about – playoffs?! You kiddin’ me? Playoffs?! I just hope we can win a game!” – Jim Mora

We will talk about playoffs, at least briefly – because while the fantasy regular season is over, there remains potential for players to continue to add or subtract from their current dynasty values. To that point, CJ Stroud got some of his mojo back, and Nico Collins reminded those who may have forgotten just how good he is. Derrick Henry and Joe Mixon continue to look unusually spry for aging veterans, while rookies Bo Nix and Troy Franklin provided a look back to their former Oregon magic. And this is only the first week of the post-season!

We espouse continuously here at DLF that there is no off-season. While said off-season may be classically viewed as the period between the Super Bowl and the following season, we know it’s even broader than that. So whether you just claimed a fantasy crown, nearly missed, landed in the mushy middle or finished dead last this past year, the time to work has already begun anew!

As a reminder, there are multiple ways to pose your burning questions! I’ll be soliciting weekly feedback via X/Twitter (look for a new pinned tweet each Monday), and you can also reach out using our Discord channel, or the old-fashioned way (via our online webform).

Let’s get to it!

From the Old-School webform…

Dynasty Data Dump

I have a few questions here. What do you think are the most likely scenarios this off-season for Rico Dowdle and JK Dobbins? Was this a ‘one and done’ year for each of them, or do you see them as rising dynasty assets? On a similar note do you think Justin Fields is a starting quarterback in 2025? Lastly, could you explore the most likely landing spots for Kirk Cousins? – Thomas in Florida

It’s one and done in this edition, but what a doozy of a question! Let’s tackle these in order and start with Dowdle, shall we?

One of the most popular mock draft landing spots for Boise State stud running back Ashton Jeanty seems to be the Dallas Cowboys. And it makes sense, right? Just consider the way they’ve drafted the position in recent years.

There was, of course, the (in)famous selection of Ezekiel Elliot with the fourth overall pick of the 2016 NFL Draft. Zeke monopolized touches for years before signing with the Patriots in 2023, only to return for an ill-fated stint with the Cowboys this past season. But the point is, his selection highlighted Dallas’ proclivity for making these types of splashy ball carrier draft picks.

To that point, this has continued with…four running back picks in the years since, each being selected in the fourth round (Tony Pollard, 2019) or later. In addition to Pollard, this has included luminaries such as Bo Scarbrough (seventh round, 2018), Mike Weber (seventh round, 2019), and Deuce Vaughn (sixth round, 2023). That’s it. That’s the list.

In my head, there had to be more than that. But that’s how narratives work – they get pushed regardless of evidence, and if you don’t pay close enough attention you can find yourself getting sucked in. So while Jeanty would indeed be a good fit in Dallas, that would be the case for most teams in the NFL, and there’s no tangible reason to assume the Cowboys are the leaders in the clubhouse.

Of course, we can’t rule out team owner and de facto general manager Jerry Jones getting involved and galaxy-braining the process. But if you look at the team’s roster construction, they need help across the entirety of the defense, as well as on the offensive line and supplementary wide receivers. WR1, tight end and quarterback seem to be the only certainties, with all other positions begging for support.

So why waste significant draft capital on replacing Dowdle? Though he was only the PPR RB23 on the season, much of this was due to a paltry five touchdowns. He exceeded 1,000 yards on the ground at 4.6 YPC, while also chipping in an acceptable 39 receptions. Most importantly, the Cowboys realized he was easily their best option, committing to him down the stretch – to that point, Dowdle received at least 20 opportunities (carries and targets) in all but one game starting on Thanksgiving.

Dowdle is still only 26 years old with significant tread left on his tires, coupled with good enough size (6’0”, 215 pounds) for an RB1/1a type of workload. Unfortunately he is no longer under contract, and might be slightly more costly than his $1.25 million price tag in 2024. But I believe he showed enough this past season to make good on his current valuation as the RB42 per the current ADP, surrounded by the riffraff shown below, to consider him a fine hold, if not an outright buy:

As for Dobbins, I’m a bit more wary. He exploded out of the gates, likely to the shock of most given his significant recent injury history. Still, these maladies were clearly in the rearview and didn’t preclude him from surpassing teammate Gus Edwards in the pecking order, en route to finishes as the PPR RB4 and RB6 in the first two weeks of the season.

Things got a bit leaner after that. In his next nine contests prior to a stint on Injured Reserve for another knee injury, there were three PPR RB1 finishes, one RB2 finish, and a miserable five RB3 finishes, with each of the latter yielding fewer than 10.0 PPR points. Inefficiency also crept into Dobbins’ weekly game logs, with six games at 3.4 YPC or fewer. A late December return provided one more RB1 and RB3 finish apiece, followed by a forgettable playoff exit in a stunning laugher against the Texans.

Given this I’d hesitate to view Dobbins as a dynasty riser. However, and with the preface this is nothing more than my own dot-connecting and speculation, given the season he had I would view a follow-up campaign as a Charger as his likeliest scenario, which leaves me at least a bit intrigued. If I think I’ll be contending, I would probably throw a mid-third-round pick to acquire his services.

Lastly, let’s conclude with the pair of signal callers you noted.

Not surprisingly, both Fields and Cousins represent depreciating dynasty assets (Cousins wasn’t selected in a single December 2024 mock draft), reflecting what little they’ve been able to do in the NFL over the past couple of years. Still, each got there in different ways.

Fields was putting forward usable fantasy performances in 2023 (he was the QB10 in terms of PPG among quarterbacks playing at least eight games), largely due to his elite rushing ability and the connection he was able to forge with receiver DJ Moore. Unfortunately this didn’t equate to winning football for the Chicago Bears, as Fields absorbed a massive 44 sacks in 13 contests, while only completing 61.4% of his passes despite a low 6.9 YPA. With the right to select Caleb Williams with the first pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, Chicago traded Fields to Pittsburgh for a song and dance. And though he played slightly better with the Steelers, he was eventually benched for Russell Wilson for the remainder of the season.

On the other hand, Cousins was playing some of the best football of his career last season with the Minnesota Vikings before going down with a torn Achilles tendon.

As shown above, he finished as a QB1 in six of eight contests, including five games of at least 19.9 PPG. Despite finishing as the QB24 due to injury, he was the QB5 in terms of PPG, only 0.6 PPG worse than Lamar Jackson.

While he clearly lost value following injury (October 2023 to November 2023 in the figure above), he mostly maintained it through the summer of 2024, with anticipation high given his move to the theoretically fertile fantasy grounds of Atlanta. But apart from some strong games against division rival Tampa Bay, Cousins just didn’t get it done. He didn’t look comfortable in the pocket, lacked drive on his throws, and showed age-44 Tom Brady mobility. Similar to Fields, he was eventually benched, and it appears more than likely he’ll be finding a new team in 2025.

That’s the history and context, but how does it help us moving forward?

Fields has now been either dismissed or benched by two teams in the past calendar year, and the NFL showed us what they thought of him when his market value stood as a future sixth-round pick. It’s entirely possible he wouldn’t have even seen the field if Wilson stayed healthy in training camp. Unexpected career comebacks occur, and we’ve seen multiple examples of this in recent seasons (see Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield), so I won’t completely dismiss a resurgence – I’m just not betting on it.

As for Cousins, I’m more bullish on his comeback. He’ll be another year removed from injury, and we’ve seen him play winning football for multiple NFL teams. Provided he can return to his prior physical form I think he’ll surprise in 2025.

As to the next logical question, what are the best locations? For my subjective opinions, I’ll refer to the table below, showing NFL Stat Explorer data from our friends at 4for4.com. I’ve parsed out passing statistics and sorted by expected points added per passing play (Pass EPA/Play), from lowest to highest to best highlight teams in need of help under center. From there I added fill color coordination:

• Gray: Not a reasonable landing spot
• Red: Poor landing spot
• Yellow: Decent landing spot
• Green: Good landing spot

Pending upgrades to personnel via off-season movement and drafting, I would hate any of Cleveland, Pittsburgh or Tennessee as landing spots, even though each one currently has a vacancy. They lack playmakers and play conservatively on offense, with the former two competing in defensive-minded divisions with poor weather in play.

Each of the teams in yellow have their starting signal callers theoretically locked down, but they all have question marks. In Indy, Anthony Richardson does not have the confidence of either his coaching staff or front office, as evidenced by the Joe Flacco experiment this past season. If Cousins was signed there, it could signal they prefer his ability to get the ball to Michael Pittman, Josh Downs and Alec Pierce. Similarly, Miami and Arizona seem unlikely, but there’s at least a sliver of daylight with Tua Tagovailoa and Kyler Murray not yet solidifying their positions despite their contracts. I’ve included the Rams as Matt Stafford is in need of a successor, and Fields in particular could be best suited by learning under an offensive mind in Sean McVay.

As to those highlighted green, it’s a mix of teams with quarterback needs, and those with quarterback questions in great situations. For the former, the Giants have a budding future superstar in Malik Nabers and a good-looking young tight end in Theo Johnson, along with decent complementary pieces. Similarly the Raiders have stud tight end Brock Bowers and a useful receiver in Jakobi Meyers.

But my favorite landing spot may actually be the New York Jets. At least for now they have two elite receivers in Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson, a great running back in Breece Hall and solid tight end in Tyler Conklin. With the hiring of a bright offensive mind (e.g., Ben Johnson), they’re a contender for biggest offensive turnaround in the league.

As to teams with current starters, I love Jacksonville as a landing spot. Trevor Lawrence just isn’t it, despite his contract. Brian Thomas is neck and neck with Nabers, Christian Kirk will return healthy, and Evan Engram and Brenton Strange represent a good tight end combination. I feel similarly about Seattle, who have arguably the best wide receiver trio in the league – I just fear Geno Smith gets another year there (here again, this could be a great spot for Fields to learn).

New Orleans is a diamond in the rough. The team has an ‘out’ on Derrick Carr’s contract, and will be returning Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, Taysom Hill and Alvin Kamara healthy. Here again is another example of a team begging for an offensive-minded head coach, but there’s some intrigue.

Will any of this come to fruition? It’s impossible to know, but from a fantasy football perspective, there is untapped potential, particularly for Cousins. Hopefully he’s able to regain his prior form, and I’d be throwing peanuts at his owner trying to obtain his services.

Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27.

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Eric Hardter

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Eric is a Boston College chemistry grad school survivor with a minor in dynasty football. He prefers to utilize both statistics and sarcasm whenever possible, believes in process over results and thinks "Hot Takes" are the scourge of the fantasy landscape.

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