Past/Present/Future Rookie Pick Value: 2024 Late 1st
It’s almost that time of year again: rookie drafts are on the horizon. Rebuilders are full of glee as they hoard their picks, while contenders are scheming how they can pry some of those picks away, and dynasty players everywhere are champing at the bit to draft their favorite prospect.
In this series, the Dynasty League Football team will be taking a look at four pick sections of a dynasty rookie draft to give a comprehensive view of those picks by analyzing consensus picks of the past, the potential options for this year, and what the picks are worth on the trade market. For this series, we’ll be focusing on superflex formats.
Historical Consensus Picks 9-12
2023
- 1.09 – Dalton Kincaid, TE BUF
- 1.10 – Zay Flowers, WR BAL
- 1.11 – Will Levis, QB TEN
- 1.12 – De’Von Achane, RB MIA
2022
- 1.09 – Skyy Moore, WR KC
- 1.10 – Christian Watson, WR GB
- 1.11 – George Pickens, WR PIT
- 1.12 – James Cook, RB BUF
2021
- 1.09 – Javonte Williams , RB DEN
- 1.10 – DeVonta Smith, WR PHI
- 1.11 – Jaylen Waddle, WR MIA
- 1.12 – Mac Jones , QB NE
With hindsight, we can see that there is some stellar value to be had. If you jump back to 2020, you see a draft where Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, and Justin Herbert were great values for fantasy playoff teams. Then in 2021, DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle were great picks. Mac Jones had a strong start as a rookie but his value is in a perilous situation with a new head coach in New England and was benched often in 2023. James Cook helped plenty of teams in the fantasy playoffs and has done well to take over the top spot in Buffalo. Last year, rookie Zay Flowers looked strong and so did De’Von Achane when he was on the field.
Going back to 2020 though, we see a HUGE miss. Like the Eagles, plenty of fantasy owners probably selected Jalen Reagor over Justin Jefferson. Injuries to Javonte Williams and Christian Watson have owners scratching their heads trying to figure out what their value is. How do people who took Dalton Kincaid over Sam LaPorta feel today? Sky Moore has been a big zero on your roster and you have probably had more bust weeks with George Pickens in the starting lineup than when you have him as a go.
2024 Potential Options
- Rome Odunze, WR Washington
- Troy Franklin, WR Oregon
- Brian Thomas Jr, WR LSU
- Keon Coleman, WR FSU
- Xavier Worthy, WR Texas
- Braelon Allen, RB Wisconsin
- Adonai Mitchell, WR Texas
- Bo Nix, QB Oregon
- Michael Penix, QB Washington
- Trey Benson, RB FSU
Utilizing our rookie superflex rankings, I will attempt to get an idea of picks 9-12 in rookie drafts. Brock Bowers is likely to be gone as owners search for the next LaPorta. The big three at QB will likely be gone with Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, and Jayden Daniels.
Odunze will likely be gone and I think Braelon Allen and Trey Benson the young RBs are also going to be off the board of your rookie drafts. This probably leaves you looking at a young WR or the question mark QBs of Bo Nix or Michael Penix. All of this would have me wanting to trade out of the position for proven talent or future picks.
Be sure to check out our 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings.
Trade Value
Knowing which prospects are worthy of being selected with these picks is only half of the battle. It’s also important to know what these picks are worth on the trade market. This will help you to find worthwhile trades if you find yourself not as interested in the prospects available when you’re up to pick or what it will take to trade up for a pick to get a prospect you like. Using the Dynasty League Football Trade Analyzer, here are some potential options each pick could be traded for right now.
1.09 (294.4 Pick Value)
- Deshaun Watson, QB CLE
- Saquon Barkley, RB NYG
- Trey McBride, TE ARI
- Deebo Samuel, WR SF
1.10 (264.3 Pick Value)
- Travis Kelce, TE KC
- Davante Adams, WR LVR
- Rashee Rice, WR KC
- Stefon Diggs, WR BUF
1.11 (234.1 Pick Value)
- Isiah Pacheco, RB KC
- Chris Godwin, WR TB
- Jayden Reed, WR GB
- George Pickens, WR PIT
1.12 (203.9 Pick Value)
- Kyle Pitts, TE ATL
- Rachaad White, RB TB
- James Cook, RB BUF
- Amari Cooper, WR CLE
If I made the playoffs and I still have my picks, the week of the draft is the perfect time to add a veteran and their proven value. Yes, I know if a few years you might regret adding a veteran instead of the flashy rookie. But, how would you feel if you turned down proven points in 2020 and drafted Jalen Reagor instead? Or again, how about those teams that drafted Dalton Kincaid in round one?
There can always be exceptions. Right now that 2020 run of late WRs is looking like more of an exception and should not be the expectation. Injuries happen and while Williams’ career so far in Denver has been nuked, we never know how long Watson can stay on the field in Green Bay. Give me veteran production and keep churning proven talent on my roster.
Dynasty Recommendations
1.09 – Yes, this is superflex. No, that doesn’t mean you have to take a QB. Don’t feel like you need to grab Michael Penix or Bo Nix at this point. Odunze might be listed but I don’t see him lasting till this position in rookie drafts. I would consider Braelon Allen or Trey Benson at this point, though both are possibly going to be gone come this stage of the draft. Neither are in the stratosphere of Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs from last season. But, both could be very helpful and with injuries in the NFL it never hurts to have depth.
With all that said I would draft the WR out of Oregon, Troy Franklin. Listed at 6-3 and a generous 187-pound on the Ducks team site, he can create and has the speed to open up a defense by taking the top off. I am still team size-speed and Franklin is a little light for my preference, but in the right system, he should be productive.
troy franklin is so quick cc @JetPackGalileo pic.twitter.com/yO87lDHN8t
— Danny Kelly (@DannyBKelly) February 8, 2024
1.10 – Being a size-speed classic WR build fan, I might look toward Malik Nabers‘ LSU teammate Brian Thomas Jr at this spot. Listed at 6-4 and 205 pounds, he put on a show in 2023 before declaring. With nearly 1,200 receiving yards and 17 receiving touchdowns this season, he was a force. I feel comfortable with him having more growth in the NFL.
1.11 – I would lean towards Adonai Mitchell, the WR out of Texas. Measuring in at 6-4 and nearly 200 pounds he has the size I prefer at the position. He can create downfield with nuanced route running. Does well in contested catches. His teammate on the Longhorns Xavier Worthy is right there with him for consideration.
1.12 – This might be the spot when I draft a QB. Superflex is always going to have a lot of value at the QB position. You can never have enough as we saw with the plethora of injuries this last season. Bo Nix, Michael Penix, or JJ McCarthy should all have stellar value here. Or this could be a great spot to trade down and stockpile some picks. It might be the UW fandom in me, but I am leaning toward Penix with this pick.
Pete is a Western Washington University (Go Vikings! Undefeated at Football since 2009!) History grad with a doctorate in dynasty football, from a certificate he bought online. He prefers stats and analytics but realizes film grinding is an important part of the process. Dabbles in "Mild Takes" and believes in the process.
