2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Profile: Bo Nix, QB Oregon
Some of us in the devy community remember the excitement of true freshman Bo Nix coming in at Auburn and defeating Oregon. Nix took the Auburn Tigers on a game-winning touchdown drive and threw the winning pass to Seth Williams with seconds left on the clock to defeat Justin Herbert.
Yes, a lot has changed in the football landscape since that August 2019 game. Herbert will be entering his fifth season in the NFL this year and Williams has a career stat line of one target and one reception, not great for a prior second-round rookie pick at one point…
The next two years at Auburn had some highs and lows. Nix never really hit the potential that was expected of him as one of the top quarterback recruits of the 2019 class.
Nix took the world by storm when he transferred to Oregon in 2022 and revitalized his prospects as a college QB. As a five-year starter, he brings a lot of experience and is a tale of two college conferences and prospects.
The Stats
Courtesy of Sports Reference.
Nix was not producing during his time at Auburn and made the switch out to the Pacific Northwest in 2022 where he started to light up opponents in the Oregon offense. He completed more passes on nearly 150 fewer attempts and almost doubled his TDs while keeping his turnovers under what he did in Auburn.
Courtesy of Sports Reference.
Don’t think of Nix as a classic drop box statuesque QB either. While not an elite rushing option, he did hurt defenses with his legs when given the opportunity. His rushing was much more effective out of the Oregon offense than when he was facing defenses in the SEC.
Courtesy of Pro Football Focus.
One of my concerns with Nix is how will his game translate to the NFL. Are we going to see more Auburn Nix or more Oregon Nix? Looking at his Average Depth of Target at Oregon, it was much lower than when he was at Auburn. The Oregon offense thrived on letting its receivers exploit the defense with yards after the catch.
Among QBs with at least 300 dropbacks last season, Nix had the highest passing grade on PFF. His ADOT last season would have been third from last in that group though – beating out only Graham Mertz from Florida and Jacob Zeno from UAB. Nix is good at getting the ball out of his hand quickly and was ranked fourth in Average Time to Throw at 2.44 seconds.
The Film
Let’s start with the highlights. Some things stand out: rolling right and slinging across his body to his TE against Washington in a high-pressure game. Athleticism. Making big plays and big-time throws under pressure.
Nix makes some incredible throws on the move. He can put the ball in tight spots and keep his eyes downfield when facing the rush. He has played well in big-time matchups and is a competitor.
In some of these “lowlights”, you can see issues on the deep throws, and if you watch his Auburn clips, issues with decision-making when the play extends. That said, he does well in going through his progressions. I would like to believe this has been a progression in his game from Auburn to Oregon. He went from a younger player at Auburn who doubted himself and double-clutched into bad throws, to the savvy veteran who lets it rip under pressure.
The Measurables
Courtesy of NFL.com.
Nix measured in at 6’2’’ and 214 pounds at March’s NFL Scouting Combine. He did throw at the combine, where his outside throws looked fine, but did not participate in any events.
Oregon’s pro day was on March 12th and Nix again skipped out on the physical drills. I am not overly concerned with that other than I do enjoy it when a player goes and competes. Reports were good on his throws though he did miss two corner routes.
Bo Nix showing off some of that deep ball accuracy at his Pro Day @nflnetwork | @oregonfootball pic.twitter.com/yEIXaN5vmg
— The Checkdown (@thecheckdown) March 12, 2024
The Value
Bo Nix is currently looking at being a possible early-round two selection. He seems like the perfect option for a team in need of a QB to trade down in round one and accumulate picks or to move back into the end of the round to get their QB of the future. I would be surprised to see a team draft him in the early part or even in the middle of round one.
Courtesy of Mock Draft Database.
In 1QB leagues, Nix is going towards the end of round two. I am curious though what the two owners drafting him at pick 28 have to say about him here in March. He is going as the rookie QB6 right now. In superflex rookie drafts, he is going at the start of round two.
Courtesy of DLF’s Rookie ADP.
Nix is going late in startup drafts right now as the QB32. With an ADP around 243, owners are throwing a dart late in their 1QB startup drafts. This might improve some post-draft but he should still be a value in startup drafts as a rookie QB. In superflex drafts, he is still the QB32 but his ADP climbs up to pick 114, right after Derrick Henry.
Courtesy of DLF’s February Startup ADP.
Dynasty Outlook
Nix seems like a solid value. In a superflex rookie draft where maybe I can grab Marvin Harrison Jr, Malik Nabers, or Rome Odunze then snag Nix early in round two that seems like a great build to me. Adding in the top-flight WRs and still getting a QB is a winning option.
I am more inclined to think that Nix is closer to the talent we saw at Oregon than what happened in Auburn. The boost to his confidence as he switched collegiate teams is what was needed for him to hit his talent level. He is an older QB coming into the league considering that Sam Howell was ranked just behind him at 247 Sports but Spencer Rattler and Jayden Daniels – two prospects in this class – were the two ahead of him.
His accuracy should not be completely discounted. Get him in the right system and his ability to quickly get the ball out and handle pressure is commendable. I look forward to what comes next for the Ducks QB.
Pete is a Western Washington University (Go Vikings! Undefeated at Football since 2009!) History grad with a doctorate in dynasty football, from a certificate he bought online. He prefers stats and analytics but realizes film grinding is an important part of the process. Dabbles in "Mild Takes" and believes in the process.
